PEN - Peninsula Energy

[tech/a]

The point missed is "technically" the chart was weak.
There were also a whole host of charts traded on the ASX which were also weak.
No claim of anything simply weakness---fell a lot further than I imagined---so what!
Weakness leaves the stock susceptible to ANY negative impact from world news.
My analysis if you have a look states that a fall to 12c would be seen as a breach of support and as such "wise" to get out of the trade.

This happened a full day before Japan happened.
Those who sold at 12c would have avoided a great deal of loss.

End of story nothing miraculous simple analysis like all analysis.
It will be proven correct or incorrect.

It is interesting though that price has remained low despite continued results /announcements and positive spin.

 

[hangseng]

Todays announcement seems to have gone to the keeper...
12 May 2011 Outstanding Uranium and Associated Molybdenum Grades Returned in Karoo (471.03 Kb)
http://www.pel.net.au/images/peninsul---thaezuthei.pdf

Big mistake IMO and will be shown to be once the high grade molybdenum and uranium deposits are proved up, as is continuing to be indicated.

At Karoo the Mo "halo's" the uranium and PEN has known this for some time. That along with the fact PEN is continuing to display this is a "Near surface" deposit at site 22 in particular.

Also the Karoo deposit is "masked", as I have pointed out in the past:

"During Phase 2 of the programme all new surface uranium occurrences within the selected drilling areas will be subjected to an initial drilling programme to confirm subsurface extension of the mineralisation and to determine grades."


This from previous Karoo reporting:

"As radiometric surveys can only test the very shallow surface environment a few cm, a uranium mineralised body covered with a thin layer of sand or soil will give a minimal to non-existent response in the uranium channel. Thin overburden can also dilute a uranium response and make it very weak, highlighting the importance of placing anomalies in context."

http://www.pel.net.au/pdf/080508 Karoo Rasults Final.pdf

Anyone who saw what EXT reported about 3 years ago in relation to this (Rossing South) would know why I am highlighting this very important aspect. Beneath this "masked" surface reading could be a massive uranium resource, or there could be nothing at all. I doubt very much it will be the latter, however the former remains to be seen.

The layers of "sand or soil" PEN indicates above can "mask" the subsurface uranium mineralisation, as happened at Rossing. Many argued that was a load of rubbish here on the EXT thread, we now know the results at Rossing and that the now suspended "Uncle Barry" was 100% correct.

I am not saying this will occur, I am just highlighting that it has the potential to occur and the similarities that should not be ignored.

PEN clearly aren't ignoring this aspect.

Now drilling is underway at Karoo, what will be uncovered in this campaign?

A little history for those that haven't gone back that far:

FURTHER HIGH GRADE URANIUM AND MOLYBDENUM CONFIRMED AT KAROO
Highlights

* Uranium mineralisation confirmed to 9,053ppm <0.905%> U3O8 at Site 22
* Uranium mineralisation confirmed to 1,833ppm <0.183%> U3O8 at Site 49
* Molybdenum mineralisation confirmed to 879ppm <0.088%> Mo at Site 22
* Molybdenum mineralisation confirmed to 965ppm <0.097%> Mo at Site 49
* Priority drill targets confirmed
* Follow up testing on additional radiometric anomalies to be undertaken.


Karoo has massive grades indicated and in addition to the uranium very high grades of Molybdenum .

Previously reported at Site 29:

HIGH GRADE URANIUM AND MOLYBDENUM CONFIRMED AT KAROO PROJECTS
Highlights
* Assays confirm uranium mineralisation with grades to 21,000ppm <2.1%> U3O8* Molybdenum grades confirmed up to 2,430ppm
* 7 out of 10 prospects return grades over 1,000ppm U3O8
* Four very high priority drill targets confirmed


I can't wait for the drill results of this current campaign. Maybe you can see why I am also focused on the "masking" aspect.

Before we go rushing out to mortgage everything, the Mo results above were taken from the "assay of twenty three rock chip samples". Although they can be a reliable indicator, the drilling and confirmation assay is obviously required to confirm.

The Karoo leases though do have significant historical drilling data.

This is also something I have never forgotten:

"Potential to add approximately 50% to the value of the in situ uranium. This significantly impacts on the economics of mining these types of mineralisation"
sources:

http://www.pel.net.au/news___announcements/karoo__south_africa.phtml

http://www.pel.net.au/projects/karoo_region__south_africa.phtml

 

[tech/a]

I'm often amused by your regurgitation and commentary on almost every announcement.
Your clear bias is noted.

But the stock is reacting as I believe it should---with caution.
Its not mining and isn't sure that it will be economically viable.
You keep comparing with Stock which have passed the potential stage.
What you dont point out is the many who never go beyond where PEN is today.



Clearly the ECONOMIC viability isn't yet set in stone.
This guys marketing shows hes no idiot.
A higher price and blah blah potential might just attract a buyer---and he is out of there.

In fact H/S if you had the money you'd be out with the cheque book 6 months ago.---well you still are---

 

[Sean K]

Japan have shelved plans for about 14 (from memory) new reactors. Not sure if any other players have reset plans but a lot of the uranium price was factored in to the demand coming on strong over the next 10-20 years. Price of U could be trashed and put any explorers in mothballs.

This has always been one of the risks.

The fundamentals are saying trouble to anyone wanting to start mining in the short to medium term.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Japan have shelved plans for about 14 (from memory) new reactors. Not sure if any other players have reset plans but a lot of the uranium price was factored in to the demand coming on strong over the next 10-20 years. Price of U could be trashed and put any explorers in mothballs.

This has always been one of the risks.

The fundamentals are saying trouble to anyone wanting to start mining in the short to medium term.

And that is before you look at the chart.

One for the true believers, and good luck to them if they score, however, sentiment and the charts are against them.

gg

 

[hangseng]

Japan have shelved plans for about 14 (from memory) new reactors. Not sure if any other players have reset plans but a lot of the uranium price was factored in to the demand coming on strong over the next 10-20 years. Price of U could be trashed and put any explorers in mothballs.

This has always been one of the risks.

The fundamentals are saying trouble to anyone wanting to start mining in the short to medium term.

"Shelved" where did you get that from kennas?

One of the aspects that really p's me off is misinformation. The media has done this in spades over the earthquake and tsnami events, and doing so agian with a fervour beyond reason.

Another example of speculative media crud. All the way through this event the media simply love to use poetic license and "expand' the truth and facts as they did throughout the events that ensued the earthquake and tsunami.

They couldn't lie straight in bed some of them.

The Japanese Prime Minister gave a speech but never stated any such thing.

This is what he stated in part...

Note: "Reconsider" as the headline...NOT "Abandon" of which they definitiely have not.

They are "reconsidering" policy, no mention of "abandoning" except in he media.

Also note they intend to increase nuclear energy from the current 30% to 50% by 2030. If they aren't going to expand capacity of nuclear then how will this be done?????

Perhaps the Einsteins in the press can tell the world how this will magically be done? They couldn't do that though as that would be telling the truth...not really a news selling aspect it seems.

Japan to reconsider energy policy
11 May 2011

"A rethink of Japan's energy policy following the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has been announced by the country's prime minister Naoto Kan. Nuclear will remain a "pillar" in Japan's energy supply, he said."

and...

"I think it is necessary to discuss from scratch the current basic energy plan, under which the share of nuclear energy is expected to be more than 50% in 2030, while more than 20% will come from renewable power."

source:
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/N...N_Daily_11_May_20115_11_2011&utm_medium=email Other


Reality check:



IMO Japan will follow, as will the rest of the world. Coal is a finite resource and known to be an unclean energy source, killing far more than nuclear ever did (as has been posted here and elsewhere previously).

This is simply a writing on the wall article but a good one IMO.

In part...

"Nuclear is the safest option"
Meng Si

May 10, 2011
Fukushima triggered public alarm in China, but state energy researcher Jiang Kejun believes nuclear power remains the country?s best bet.
He tells Meng Si why

"In the early days of the Japanese nuclear crisis, the Standing Committee of China?s State Council suspended approval of new nuclear-power projects. Later, an official at the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) ? China?s top economic planning body ? indicated that China would not abandon nuclear power as a result of events in Japan and that, as long as safety is assured, development would still be rapid. So what is the real impact of Japan?s disaster on future energy policy in China? chinadialogue?s Meng Si spoke to Jiang Kejun, senior researcher at NDRC?s Energy Research Institute."

Full article:

http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/4281



Scaremongering using baseless information is rife over Fukishima, the facts remain. PEN will be a producer (funding and full permitting pending). A producer ahead of the herd of hopefuls that many posters have been singing the praises of that are a long way from production yet, if they ever get there.

Not only do I not scare easily, I don't take notice of traders that have a clear interest in a stocks price going down to gain a better entry. Good luck with that.

 

[tech/a]

PEN will be a producer (funding and full permitting pending).

Should read PEN could be a producer (funding and full permitting pending).

And until then my and many others funds will be else where.
I cant stand sitting in a train at a station not knowing if it will EVER leave.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Not only do I not scare easily, I don't take notice of traders that have a clear interest in a stocks price going down to gain a better entry. Good luck with that.

Not scaring easily is admirable, though it can be foolhardy for one's grubstake if taken to the extreme.

PEN is a piddler small stock, and if you believe that a few comments on a small forum such as hotcopper, or even on a larger and more influential one such as ASF, can change it's price, then I would be scared if I were you.

gg

 

[Sean K]

Japan shelves nuclear power expansion

http://japansnucleardisaster.com/2011/05/japan-shelves-nuclear-power-expansion/

Countries shelve nuclear power plans

http://blog.cleantechies.com/2011/03/15/countries-shelve-nuclear-plans-in-wake-of-accident/

Of Japan's 54 nuclear reactors, 11 were suspended due to the earthquake and another 22 reactors suspended for servicing. That leaves 21 reactors, less than half of the country's total, in operation.

http://dalje.com/en-world/japan-shuts-down-another-nuclear-plant/357469

Japan shelves plans

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/17_36.html

Italy shelves nuclear plans

http://article.wn.com/view/2011/04/19/Italy_shelves_nuclear_plans_after_Japan_quake_i/

Japan utilities shelve more nuclear plans

http://www.argusmedia.com/pages/NewsBody.aspx?id=744506&menu=yes

China suspends

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Wo...-After-Disaster/Article/201103315954077?f=rss

Japan: Kyushau shelves plans

http://www.ifandp.com/article/0010731.html



Maybe it just depends what words you google

 

[skc]

Even the producers are struggling pretty badly at the moment. PDN doesn't actually turn a profit, while ERA has operational issues left right and centre.

 

[tigerboi]

Re: PEN - Peninsula Energy: puzzled why a speccie is always top posted stock

PEN is a piddler small stock.
gg

one thing i could never work out? why a penny stock such as PEN was always the top posted stock at places like HC.

maybe someone could enlighten me as to why this is.
why is it PEN which has little support (sp of about 8c) is the subject of so much debate.
cheers TB

 

[madjohn]

Uranium May Rise to $75 a Pound in 2012 After Fukushima, Uranium One Says
By Bloomberg News - May 13, 2011 6:12 PM GMT+1000

Uranium prices may trade from $70 to $75 a pound next year after problems at Japan’s Fukushima Dai- Ichi nuclear power plant are resolved, Fletcher Newton, a vice president at Uranium One Inc. (UUU), said in Beijing.

The price of uranium oxide concentrate for immediate delivery will be from $55 to $65 a pound this year, Newton told Bloomberg before a conference today.

“You simply can’t build a uranium mine at these prices,” Newton said. When Japan starts to experience a power shortage this summer “the world will look at it and realize that the issues we face are the same as before” in meeting nuclear power requirements. New uranium mines need a price of $85 a pound before they are economically viable, Newton said.

More: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ext-year-on-japan-boost-uranium-one-says.html

 

[madjohn]

has nuclear energy got a place in US??
HEY pen IS IN usa NOT japan , anyway.!



http://www.moneynews.com/Markets/licata-alternative-energy-gasoline/2011/05/12/id/396146

 

[madjohn]

US nuclear plants still save.

http://www.moneynews.com/Markets/NuclearPlants-Safety/2011/05/12/id/396109

 

[madjohn]

The costs of replacing Japan`s nuclear power ?

http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2011/04/replacing_japans_nuclear_power.shtml




well to each it own -I will be buying more PEN even better if it drops lower.

go PEN!

 

[hangseng]

Not scaring easily is admirable, though it can be foolhardy for one's grubstake if taken to the extreme.

PEN is a piddler small stock, and if you believe that a few comments on a small forum such as hotcopper, or even on a larger and more influential one such as ASF, can change it's price, then I would be scared if I were you.

gg

Very interesting GG, I don't recal mentioning ASF or HC. Having said that though, although I totally disagree that forums can't influence an sp, it isn't an aspect I let influence me. Especially baseless scare tactics.

However to paraphrase you, that is your personal opinion. If you don't believe forums influence stocks, I respectfully suggest (IMO) you are wrong.

I could cite quite a few examples, however CDU is on record in the media in particular. Wayne Mcrae clearly had nothing to say when the postings on HC, here and elswhere were attributed to a massive spike in the share price in the Australian media. However he had plenty to say when the sp dived and placed the blame squarely at some HC posters and HC.

PEN was a perfect example in 2009 of what can occur, AAR another in 2008.

One thing is for certain (IMO), novices do get influenced and posters with knowledge you post accordingly and honourably. Unfortunately forums attract all manner of people and with see other tyhan that far too often.

No GG, I am no afraid one bit. Fear is born of lack of understanding and knowledge in the main, I lack neither.

Like good traders who stick to a trading plan, or at least they profess to. I have an investment plan and I am sticking to it until something fundamentally factual comes along to change my positive views of this "piddler small stock" company. That was not so long ago placed into the "All Ordinary" stock listing. Not to shabby for a "piddler".

I certainly look forward to continuing discussion in the 1st half of 2012, where I believe certain posters will either not post here anymore or will at least post with a different view.

Short term fluctuations of an sp are not of any concern to me and I am damn certain are not of any concern to the excellent management of this company. My work in project risk management permits me to make learned decisions based on objective, factual information and not purely subjective individual views. To date it has served me well.

Todays announcement once again "denouncing" the many posts here and elsewhere over false innuendo posted about permitting of Lance and supposed environmental concerns. Now all proven to be absolute garbage and little more than an atempt to influence posters.

The truth isn't always immeniately apparent, however it always prevails...

ROSS ISR PERMITTING AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
http://www.pel.net.au/images/peninsul---vaemoocohl.pdf

 

[mickqld]

Should read PEN could be a producer (funding and full permitting pending).

And until then my and many others funds will be else where.
I cant stand sitting in a train at a station not knowing if it will EVER leave.
Originally Posted by Garpal Gumnut
Not scaring easily is admirable, though it can be foolhardy for one's grubstake if taken to the extreme.

PEN is a piddler small stock, and if you believe that a few comments on a small forum such as hotcopper, or even on a larger and more influential one such as ASF, can change it's price, then I would be scared if I were you.

gg

What I also cant stand is why people who have no interest in owning a stock want to waste so much time using baseless misinformation to continually talk down a stock. Especially one they consider a piddling insignificant minow. Unless of course they have a more selfish hidden agenda.

 

[Joe Blow]

Once again, I have had to remove a number of no/low content posts from this thread that offer nothing of value to the reader.

I would ask that those who have nothing to offer but sarcasm, funny pictures or off-topic throw away remarks please refrain from posting in this thread. From this point forward, no/low content posts will be met with infractions.

If you are going to post in this thread - and I don't care whether you have a bullish or bearish perspective to offer - please contribute something of substance that adds some value. This thread remains the most problematic stock thread on ASF and I am getting weary of constantly having to clean it up.

 

[mickqld]

This is a company that rarely if ever gets it wrong.

An Olympic victory for BHP
Robert Gottliebsen
Published 7:31 AM, 16 May 2011 Last update 10:25 AM, 16 May 2011

Olympic Dam is the world’s most valuable mineral deposit (BHP's Olympic dream, January 20) and will go close to being the world’s biggest start-up mining development. The enormous scale is revealed in the Olympic Dam environmental statement which shows where BHP will spend $30 billion to access the ore.

[SNIP]

The world is worried about the future of nuclear, but BHP appears to have has no such concerns, and has produced a remarkable set of maps and tables which show that currently there are 439 nuclear reactors in operation. Dalla Valle says that he expects the number to rise to 793 by 2030 – just under 20 years.

Those 793 reactors will require around 92,000 tonnes of uranium, according to Dalla Valle. BHP will be producing 15,000 tonnes from the open pit and 4,000 tonnes from the underground mine – a total of 19,000 – and will be the world’s biggest supplier. Dalla Valle says that, despite the 19,000 tonne Olympic Dam uranium output, on his present estimates there will be a shortfall of an incredible 50,721 tonnes of uranium oxide on the basis of present and planned output.

If he is right, the price of uranium will go through the roof unless more Olympic Dams are discovered and developed.

[SNIP]

Entire article: http://www.businessspectator.com.au...er-Pilbara-boom-pd20110516-GVSRR?opendocument

 

[hangseng]

This is a company that rarely if ever gets it wrong.



Entire article: http://www.businessspectator.com.au...er-Pilbara-boom-pd20110516-GVSRR?opendocument

As always Mick I love your knowledgeable focussed manner.

Regardless of the Japan event, nuclear is here to stay and absolutely no doubt those that know far better than you or I agree on that point and that a shortfall is highly likely. PEN is well placed for coming events IMO.

John Borshoff obviously thinks so as well...

Uranium demand may fall about 5 percent in the "short to mid-term," he said. Even so, the crisis may exacerbate a uranium supply shortage as explorers struggle to gain financing to proceed with their projects, Borshoff said earlier today on a conference call with analysts.

'Nuclear Revival'

"The major drivers to the nuclear revival, such as China, India, Korea, Russia and the Middle East, remain committed" to expansion, he said. The Japan disaster has obscured the "positive underlying fundamentals," he added.

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/artic...LLC04B0YHQ0X01-1C2DT1PLF727RQ56CB6VP17MQF.DTL