PEN - Peninsula Energy

[tech/a]

We have two different class of investors/traders here with different investing/trading goals debating here. Clearly there will be opposing opinions, especially when we put emotions into the mix.

Billy I actually agree with you.

Our learned Fundamentalists have no other option but to take a longterm view.
My technical input is I hope there for those who do not wish to take such a volatile trade/investment option. I have also been instrumental in pointing out the consequences of such volatility --- some trades decimated by 50% on open profit---.
A cardinal sin for a trader!---an occupational hazard for some Fundamentalists.

Ill continue to follow as there will be
low risk opportunity to take this trade and profit in the future (I may miss it being away for a couple of months---a traders occupational hazard!) without wild volatility.

 

[madjohn]

Nuclear Future Is Now Because That’s Where Profit Is for Exelon: Real M&A
By Tara Lachapelle, Rita Nazareth and Jim Polson - Apr 29, 2011 3:02 PM GMT+1000

Exelon Corp. (EXC) is trying to pull off its largest takeover by acquiring more nuclear power plants -- less than two months after the industry’s worst disaster since Chernobyl.

The biggest U.S. operator of nuclear power facilities agreed to purchase Constellation Energy Group Inc. (CEG) of Baltimore for about $7.9 billion in stock, giving the Chicago-based company stakes in five more reactors. Including net debt, the transaction would be Exelon’s first acquisition over $1 billion since 2002 after three deals fell apart in the past seven years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

While Exelon faces its biggest decline in earnings in a decade next year as higher-priced power contracts that it sold expire, Constellation’s nuclear assets will help Exelon boost profitability as environmental regulations increase costs for energy producers that own coal plants, according to Manulife Asset Management U.S. LLC’s Greg Phelps. The takeover, which will mark the end of John Rowe’s 11-year stint as Exelon’s chief executive officer, comes as the partial meltdown of Japan’s Fukushima Dai-Ichi plant in March prompts rivals such as NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) to halt plans to build new reactors.

More: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...at-s-where-profit-is-for-exelon-real-m-a.html

 

[hangseng]

Billy I actually agree with you.

Our learned Fundamentalists have no other option but to take a longterm view.
My technical input is I hope there for those who do not wish to take such a volatile trade/investment option. I have also been instrumental in pointing out the consequences of such volatility --- some trades decimated by 50% on open profit---.
A cardinal sin for a trader!---an occupational hazard for some Fundamentalists.

Ill continue to follow as there will be*
low risk opportunity to take this trade and profit in the future (I may miss it being away for a couple of months---a traders occupational hazard!) without wild volatility.

tech/a one of your better posts, and it may surprise you I generally agree with you, apart from one aspect.

"Our learned Fundamentalists have no other option but to take a longterm view."

In my case I could sell PEN on monday for a rather handsome profit. Also in my case, as I can't speak for others, I have many options open to me. This due to the manner I managed my investment into a very profitable position over time.

The massive swings in PEN of late are obviously providing great short term trade opportunities, for those with quick thinking predictive skills. I don't possess such a skill but would love to see any T/A IN ADVANCE of these massive swings and I to will take advantage.

I have never seen this skill here or elsewhere, but it would be interesting to see such an outstanding use of T/A. Always on the look out for exceptional opportunities and this if proven would provide something quite special for ASF members.

Imagine if we could have been told the Tsunami was happening tomorrow and the sp would go from 13 to 5.6 and then bounce to 10.5 and back to 8 and then 9.3 to 8.1 in a day? We would all be outstandingly wealthy and forever greatful.

On a serious note though, I do like seeing all factual fundamental views and good T/A. All aids in making sound investment and trading decisions.

For now I await the next round of critical announcements over the next couple of weeks.

 

[tech/a]

I don't possess such a skill but would love to see any T/A IN ADVANCE of these massive swings and I to will take advantage.

Hell how more advanced can you get than that posted here well in advance.
You didn't take advantage of it because you didn't believe the analysis---have a re read--- apparently I was dreaming!

Post #1004

I have many options open to me. This due to the manner I managed my investment into a very profitable position over time.

Your happy with your investments---fine--I think you could have handled PEN way better.---but your in it for the long haul.

 

[skyQuake]

This is turning into the old FMG thread corn:

 

[hangseng]

Sorry tech/a yws I must have mised your Tsunami forecast. But I I am sure you would like to remind us all of how you did this, I for one can't recall you doing so, nor do I recall you picking all of those swings I mentioned.

Yes I am very happy with my investment decision, with all of the now associted taxation benefits that would otherwise not been achieved with a pure trading means.

My SMSF accountant and auditor is also astonished at what has been achieved in comparison with both the market general and funds. So I would hazard a guess I am doing just fine.

 

[tech/a]

Sorry tech/a yws I must have mised your Tsunami forecast. But I I am sure you would like to remind us all of how you did this, I for one can't recall you doing so, nor do I recall you picking all of those swings I mentioned.

Yes I am very happy with my investment decision, with all of the now associted taxation benefits that would otherwise not been achieved with a pure trading means.

My SMSF accountant and auditor is also astonished at what has been achieved in comparison with both the market general and funds. So I would hazard a guess I am doing just fine.

Thats a really interesting post.

You actually need there to be a Fundamental reason for every occurrence.
Where as I only need weakness to be apparent or strength----supply or demand.
You NEED a fundamental reason for either to be confirmed. Often way way too late
if ever seen---many times drops/rises without explanation.

Explains a lot.

 

[Boggo]

Where as I only need weakness to be apparent or strength----supply or demand.
You NEED a fundamental reason for either to be confirmed. Often way way too late
if ever seen---many times drops/rises without explanation.

The thread on HST is a prime example of what you are trying to convey tech/a.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10119&page=2&highlight=hst

 

[tech/a]

I often go on about placing yourself IN FRONT of opportunity and waiting for it to hit you.

A technically weak stock will get hammered by ANY negative news.
PEN constantly releases positive spin and that does have an impact on investors.
But I'm afraid Tsunami's trump company announcements and so does Inflation figures.

On the flip side if your riding opportunity and you can see weakness appearing in your opportunistic trade/s I think it would be wise to take notice of that weakness and its strength IN FRONT of any unknown fundamental fragility.
PEN isn't alone in technical fragility.

If we look at the market as to where it has been and to where it is going I'm sure I'm not alone in erring to the very cautious.
There are times to bet the house----this isn't (in my view) one of them---regardless of stock!

Already we are seeing a Tough budget (threatened to be released) hammering the index
Try to imagine a swift downturn in Europe and /or the US added to our situation!!---best get in front of it as early as you can.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Some sense at last re PEN.

There are more sellers than buyers atm, and the share price has not risen as a result.

Once there are more buyers than sellers, with volume, it will advance.

Simple.

gg

 

[hangseng]

Some sense at last re PEN.

There are more sellers than buyers atm, and the share price has not risen as a result.

Once there are more buyers than sellers, with volume, it will advance.

Simple.

gg

Brilliance gg

Thought provoking brilliance that covers every stock on the ASX and yet it draws the need to be posted on PEN.

 

[So_Cynical]

Hell how more advanced can you get than that posted here well in advance.
You didn't take advantage of it because you didn't believe the analysis---have a re read--- apparently I was dreaming!

Post #1004

Post 1004 below (i had to look ) i cant see any grand predictions tech :dunno: all i see is the usually "could go either way" analysis that charty types seem to always come up with.

(7th-March-2011) Dont have a problem holding PEN just a matter of getting it set at a good price (If your late on the action like I am.)

Click to expand

~

 

[skyQuake]

tech got stopped out at 13 a bit earlier, and posted gtfo if it gets below 12.5.
Seems fairly clear

Heaven forbid any bearish price targets in a bull thread!

-------------------------------

PEN has had some high volume trading days, but I don't recall ever seeing it on the Commsec most bought list?

CommSec Most Popular Stocks

Sells

NAB
CBA
NCM
AXA
QBE
MYR

Buys

ANZ
TLS
BHP
WES
RIO
PEN

Might be a lesson here: When something gets into commsecs top buys (excluding asx50s) get outttt!

 

[indeck]

Definitely sell PEN when it's in the top buy list because it means a tsunami is coming

 

[anthndp]

Definitely sell PEN when it's in the top buy list because it means a tsunami is coming

That's definately going to put you on someone's ignore list. Are you scared??

Here is a bit from Wise-owl, i don't like posting stuff from their website but this should clear up the fact that a reversal in the market was evident in late Jan. PEN bucked the trend for a week or 2 but was also in a revesal in late Feb, whilst everyone was chanting 18c, 20c, 50c & $1.

During the final half of 2010 global share markets staged a strong rally, gaining in excess of 20 per cent. After becoming over extended, this upward bias was surrendered early in the new year. Evidence of exhaustion prompted a downgrade to our near term market view in late January. Our ‘market meter’ has since swayed between ‘cautious’ and ‘neutral’, a position justified by the absence of a dominant trend.


Subsequent trade during 2011 has seen most major indices effectively trade sideways. This malaise was interspersed by a much overdue ‘shakeout’ during the month of March. The retracement saw benchmark indices post high single digit percentage declines, although riskier sections of the market experienced falls twice as severe.

 

[anthndp]

This is Gold, abit dated 11th April so feel free to delete it if need be.

Price Trend
[price change of PEN in brackets] PENOC decreased 1.5% for the day [3.4%]; plummeted 9.7% for the week
[6.5%] and crashed 33.7% for the month [31.2%].

But to balance the post up

Trailing five years
A two-bagger in the past five years, the value of $1,000 invested five years ago is $2,515, for a capital gain
of $1,515.

Good but not great for a spec with such promise as we are lead to believe, certainly not 70 pages worth IMO.

 

[tech/a]

On the SURFACE could be viewed by the in experienced as wise and timely words.

Dig a little deeper and perhaps going forward isn't as crystal clear as presented.

Some sense at last re PEN.

There are more sellers than buyers atm, and the share price has not risen as a result.

Once there are more buyers than sellers, with volume, it will advance.

Simple.

gg

Brilliance gg

Thought provoking brilliance that covers every stock on the ASX and yet it draws the need to be posted on PEN.

So lets look at why PEN is likely to stay in a wide range for a long long time.
Months before things materialize.

Some may find Thought provoking stuff for PEN only and NOT every other stock in the ASX.
If only it was as easy as our learner ed pundits think it is!!

Click to expand

 

[Boggo]

Post 1004 below (i had to look ) i cant see any grand predictions tech :dunno: all i see is the usually "could go either way" analysis that charty types seem to always come up with.

A quick refresher of some previous posts.

If tech/a didn't predict it then who are the posts below responding to ?

I think your dreaming at 9.5c I would be very surprised if it was sold to that.

9.5c??? The best you will do is 12.5c Tech. Get in while you can, it is going to bounce back to 14.5c in the next couple of days

9.5 eh Tech ..... Its only fair I give you the chance to get me back .... plus you would be getting one heck of an entry ...... I'm in .... 18.5 cents before 9.5 cents

You will find him and his mate daffy duck at 9.5c I am sure lol.

Seriously though tech/a, no chance in hell is that going to occur without a major market crash. There isn't one fundamental (or technical) reason why it would occur otherwise. In fact there are so many imminent reasons fundamentally why it won't occur and it is more likely to head to the 20c Fib extensions as I displayed recently.

Support at 12.5 has proven solid in very poor market conditions since the 21/2/2011 stochs displays well oversold on the daily chart, OBV continues to rise and buy volume has increased again. How on earth do you believe 9.5c is going to occur?

And the only sensible post was left til last....

I am thinking of putting a sell trigger at 0.12 if 0.125 resistance wipes.

 

[nulla nulla]

All the fanfare about PEN simply draws the attention of the opportunists looking for a trade on the next bounce.

 

[toocool]

So lets look at why PEN is likely to stay in a wide range for a long long time.
Months before things materialize.



Click to expand

View attachment 42673

Simple, Quality analysis.