PEN - Peninsula Energy

[hangseng]

No disrespect to our most avid poster but surely it is time to come back Hangseng

Still here ColB.

Amiss of me not to post here over the last few days, however last week I couldn't be bothered with a certain other site and when I saw the media frenzy I did what I do. Switched off the Tele, stopped reading newspapers and focussed on "what I believed was going to happen and my own research ".

Some may call this a head in the sand approach, I can assure you it wasn't. After sitting back and thinking logically and objectively, I made the decision to hold fast my investment in PEN. A decision I now see was a good one for me. I also did a check on my available funds as I wanted to increase my holdings when PEN went low 5's again.

Away from the media frenzied hype and negativity posted on forums (most of it baseless rubbish and opportunistic negative innuendo), I found myself to be quite calm and resolved. I have tried for quite some time to get to this state of mind in the market and it takes black swan events like this to test it.

I am not saying this won't have any effect on the uranium or nuclear energy industry. However I am stating in my view, if anything it will have flow on positive effect on PEN and other producers.

I say this because if any of the hype is in part correct then the uranium price may be suppressed short term due to a lower demand. If this occurs then a lot of would be producers will fall by the wayside completely at worst, or delayed at best. If this occurs PEN will remain a producer and the current plans won't be affected.

The benefit of being a very low Capex/Opex Producer will became plainly evident to all.

PEN has a supply contract already and others in the waiting. PEN also has the available cash and funding to go all the way past production at Lance.

Logic prevailed in my thinking and I truly believed PEN would rebound strongly from the past weeks irrational selloff. I am a loner and I don't follow crowd mentality, I certainly don't panic. I have now been through the GFC, the 1987 crash and the mini pre-cursor crash of Aug 2007 (the warning of the coming of the GFC). Last week was the time to buy stocks like PEN, not sell.

I realise and respect that some sold due to trading strategies, stop losses or simply personal financial decisions. It is blind panic selling that shouldn't occur, however that happens out of fear and ignorance that can be overcome.

I hold firm now more than ever that PEN will prove to be an outstanding investment. My view of and resolve in PEN as an outstanding company remains. Despite the negative information being bandied around, the nuclear energy industry isn't finished, far from it in fact.

As a few people were told last week it seems... "Watch this space"

 

[TabJockey]

Still here ColB.

Amiss of me not to post here over the last few days, however last week I couldn't be bothered with a certain other site and when I saw the media frenzy I did what I do. Switched off the Tele, stopped reading newspapers and focussed on "what I believed was going to happen and my own research...blah blah me me me[/I]

I agree with your assessment of PEN as an investment but im pretty sure that no shares where traded in the "low 5's" recently. My charts say lowest traded was at 5.6 and not much at that level at all. I dont understand why you didn't buy all the way down if you have such conviction (as soon as we went sub 9c bright lights started flashing "bargain") because picking the bottom as always going to be tricky I kept expecting it to bounce at 8c, then 7c.

You should of been here blowing the trumpet to the other investors when they where packing their pants. Disappearing in times of trouble is not a good thing.

Also, I am not trying to be mean and im sure you a al right bloke but you sound fairly self absorbed in your last post.

 

[skc]

I agree with your assessment of PEN as an investment but im pretty sure that no shares where traded in the "low 5's" recently. My charts say lowest traded was at 5.6 and not much at that level at all. I dont understand why you didn't buy all the way down if you have such conviction (as soon as we went sub 9c bright lights started flashing "bargain") because picking the bottom as always going to be tricky I kept expecting it to bounce at 8c, then 7c.

You should of been here blowing the trumpet to the other investors when they where packing their pants. Disappearing in times of trouble is not a good thing.

Also, I am not trying to be mean and im sure you a al right bloke but you sound fairly self absorbed in your last post.

I think he was just saying he checked his funds so he could buy more if prices fall to low 5s.

It is a really difficult balancing act. On one hand you want the lastest information so you can reassess the industry/company as development occurs - China changed its stance on nuclear plans in a matter of days and that has real impact (or at least the risk), while on-again/off-again takeover bid of Mantra is also very important to keep abreast of. On the otherhand, you don't want yourself to be influenced by the media hype and inaccurate information floating around.

A side note - very surprised today to see PDN/EXT finish very weak despite the revival of the Mantra bid. Didn't someone just priced the industry to be 12% worse than before (based on the reduction in bid price)...

 

[hangseng]

TabJockey, on the day PEN was sold down I was on a new project site with barely a phone connection in SE Asia, let alone internet. I received an sms that PEN had touched 5.4c from my recollection of the day. If my friend made a typo so be it but that is what I recalled on the day. I have just had a look at the chart to see what actually happened, not that I really care now and yes you are right 5.6 was the low. An opportunity lost for me.

Yes I wanted to buy, but to do that requires a few logistical things to be in place, not the least being a decent (or any) internet connection. Not a lot of that where I was most of last week. Even when I did get a connection it wasn't for long. On that day though I had no chance of buying. Just a little luxury most people in Aus don't realise they have.

Up to you to make of my post as you will, however I am an investor and I take what I do seriously. I wasn't about to discard 3 years of research because of any forum post or media hype via newspaper or TV report.

I made an informed decision based on what I knew to be factual at the time. I don't place much value on "the sky is falling" reporting or forum banter.

I also am often wrongly accused of "blowing the trumpet" on PEN both here and elsewhere. I post I what I believe to be correct, I leave it up to others to decide what to do with that information.

Last week I did state elsewhere that PEN would be just fine, and it is. PEN is in very good shape and well positioned to head into production. Next week we should hear of the first of the permit approvals. PEN is way a head of most of there peers now and my long held view of PEN will come to fruition.

Nothing has occurred to change that apart from peoples perception.

 

[SilverRanger]

TabJockey, on the day PEN was sold down I was on a new project site with barely a phone connection in SE Asia, let alone internet. I received an sms that PEN had touched 5.4c from my recollection of the day. If my friend made a typo so be it but that is what I recalled on the day. I have just had a look at the chart to see what actually happened, not that I really care now and yes you are right 5.6 was the low. An opportunity lost for me.

Yes I wanted to buy, but to do that requires a few logistical things to be in place, not the least being a decent (or any) internet connection. Not a lot of that where I was most of last week. Even when I did get a connection it wasn't for long. On that day though I had no chance of buying. Just a little luxury most people in Aus don't realise they have.

Up to you to make of my post as you will, however I am an investor and I take what I do seriously. I wasn't about to discard 3 years of research because of any forum post or media hype via newspaper or TV report.

I made an informed decision based on what I knew to be factual at the time. I don't place much value on "the sky is falling" reporting or forum banter.

I also am often wrongly accused of "blowing the trumpet" on PEN both here and elsewhere. I post I what I believe to be correct, I leave it up to others to decide what to do with that information.

Last week I did state elsewhere that PEN would be just fine, and it is. PEN is in very good shape and well positioned to head into production. Next week we should hear of the first of the permit approvals. PEN is way a head of most of there peers now and my long held view of PEN will come to fruition.

Nothing has occurred to change that apart from peoples perception.

Fortune favours the brave, congratulations to those who caught the falling knives during an once in a lifetime opportunity

I was pretty much immune to the frenzied media BS, many thanks to this article (and my HSC physics study )
http://www.businessinsider.com/japan-reactors-pose-no-risk-2011-3

 

[Labtech]

I liked this analysis of Fukushima (probably because it supports my opinion).

http://online.kitp.ucsb.edu/online/plecture/bmonreal11/pdf/BMonreal11_PublicLecture_KITP.pdf

 

[DB008]

I believe in PEN, but have switched into REE (Rare Earth Elements (GGG + LYC)) for the moment.
I did sell down on PEN (small loss) last week, but l made it up with a 30+% gain this week. Will l get back into PEN in the future, sure will.

 

[tech/a]

Think PEN will now go back into a corrective phase and 12c will be the highest we see for a long while.
I expect it will revisit the 5-6c areas so be ready with all that spare cash.

Those that had a good chuckle a few weeks ago maybe a little more cautious going forward.
Been in and out 7.8c to 10.5--nice.

 

[ColB]

Think PEN will now go back into a corrective phase and 12c will be the highest we see for a long while.
I expect it will revisit the 5-6c areas so be ready with all that spare cash.

Those that had a good chuckle a few weeks ago maybe a little more cautious going forward.
Been in and out 7.8c to 10.5--nice.

Think PEN will not go lower than 9.5c near term and with positive news releases may be back above .12-13c within 2-4 weeks

 

[skyQuake]

Think PEN will not go lower than 9.5c near term and with positive news releases may be back above .12-13c within 2-4 weeks

Oh what basis back to 12-13c again?

Gap fill today at 12c and fade, up 100% from the lows - imo would see a fair bit of selling.
Cant always rely on positive releases

 

[ColB]

Oh what basis back to 12-13c again?

Gap fill today at 12c and fade, up 100% from the lows - imo would see a fair bit of selling.
Cant always rely on positive releases

My post was a tongue in cheek reply to tech/a's assertion that he expects PEN to revisit the 5-6c area.

I don't agree barring another nuclear accident.

I respect his analysis and expected a sell off after it's rapid recovery from it's lows. I bailed out of a short term trade at .115c on open yesterday due to that belief. I wouldn't expect a 50% retracement just because it has gone up 100% from it's recent low.

I didn't say it's rise back up to 12-13c was solely reliant on positive news. I believe it will find a base around the 12-13c over the next fortnight.

Save your embarrassment icon for someone that doesn't interpret posts in context

 

[barney]

Todays Trades

24th March

Price ........ Shares Traded

9.8 cents ........ 3000

9.9 ................5,233,372

10 ...............15,424,096

10.5 .............1,124,067


Sellers were in total control today but they weren't that interested in selling

Would not be surprised to see 10.5 get wiped tomorrow just after the open.

 

[barney]

Would not be surprised to see 10.5 get wiped tomorrow just after the open.

As it turned out that did happen, but the sellers immediately returned with a vengeance.

Makes sense there will be a fundamental short term stalling period due to the world macro events coupled with the technical position of traders taking profits after the short term decimation and consequent rise of the SP.

The current consolidation/profit taking/accumulation phase will be "interesting" for short term traders ..... and may or may not present opportunities for longer term traders

 

[tech/a]

The current consolidation/profit taking/accumulation phase will be "interesting" for short term traders ..... and may or may not present opportunities for longer term traders

Consolidation/Profit taking AND accumulation all in the one sentence----

May or May NOT present opportunities.

Covered with the aplomb of a politicization.

I have a better description.

Indecision.

 

[tech/a]

The current consolidation/profit taking/accumulation phase will be "interesting" for short term traders ..... and may or may not present opportunities for longer term traders

Consolidation/Profit taking AND accumulation all in the one sentence----

May or May NOT present opportunities.

Covered with the aplomb of a politician

I have a better description.

Indecision.

 

[barney]

Consolidation/Profit taking AND accumulation all in the one sentence----

May or May NOT present opportunities.

Covered with the aplomb of a politician

I have a better description.

Indecision.

Lol ..... just call me Julia : ...... actually please don't call me Julia ... I like to speak the truth

I'm not really seeing indecision with this just yet tech. Waiting for an opportunity or withdrawing from a position (be that a buying or selling position) is a lot different to being unsure about your position.

Thursday/Friday for mine was profit taking by sellers in control. The same as last time around this price level.

If we start seeing major share holder/s unwinding their positions, that would be a totally different ball game of course.

The immediate weight should technically be to the downside based on both weakened short term fundamental and technicals, so if the SP treads water anywhere within 10% of current levels, I'll see that as medium term bullish.

If your 5-6 cents EW prediction comes to fruition I won't be happy, but I will take my hat off to you for calling it early

ps I keep my spare cash in my hat

 

[initforthemoney]

Buying in again at the current 9c sp. What are everyone's thoughts on the current sp?

I have been watching it for a while myself and have high expectations. The Japan earthquake was a huge speed hump but it clearly showed its resilience getting close to its original sp after only a few days. Im sure there were a lot of happy people who rode the wave on that one (no pun included)

Seeing a slight drop today which looks like It should correct itself soon. I look forward to seeing its price float above the 13-14c price again.

 

[zzaaxxss3401]

Buying in again at the current 9c sp. What are everyone's thoughts on the current sp?

I'm with tech/a on this one... expecting a retrace to 6.5c at least (possibly 5.5c).

 

[initforthemoney]

What information do you have to support that? Im interested from a technical standpoint.

I really doubt any sort of retraction, especially such an aggressive one we have seen. Unless of course there is another nuclear disaster which would cause a media uproar.

Lets be honest, the earthquake in japan which affected 1 (one) nuclear power plant in the world really should not have had the effect that it did. We all know the real cause was people buying into the media hype and panicking like it was the end of the world which caused a huge selling chain reaction. That is what really killed the sp like it did.

To be honest I was surprised at how quickly it bounced back, surely a sign of good things to come as pen shows its resilience.

 

[mr. jeff]

Before all the Japan issues were happening the game was up in the short term, all holders here saw that (in hindsight), but a lot were waiting for a return of strength.

The register was full of people who just wanted to take as much profit out of PEN as they could (ie. believed in it), with little downside risk at the time. You can see that in the chart. It hit its high at 15.5c then came back around 12-13c and sat.




Then came Fukushima and now there are a lot of speculators left wondering what to do when the bits hit the fan and they are mired in red numbers.
So now after waiting to see if the leg up will hold, they are getting out and standing aside whilst waiting for the next great idea to be sold to the market.

Starting to wonder if this is going to be the status quo for a while with PEN, and Ux, (sp action wise) as the outlook has dimmed in the short term. This is not a reflection on the industry in any way, but relative to investor monies. The question is now present in everyone's mind, will PEN actually regain 12c in the short term ? Sentiment says much more likely not to than say a coal, gas or gold stock. So if you were still in profit, wouldn't you step aside and catch a different train ?
BTW I fit in the above description so I am in no way trying to be condescending.