PEN - Peninsula Energy

[chensteiger]

Hi all, tough few days for PEN

Tech/a...well done with the charting research. I did a bit of my own research at post 1008 which backed up your analysis and thank goodness I sold out on Friday at $0.12.

However, I think no one could have foreseen the Japan earthquake/tsunami happening and especially the damage to the Nuclear Station at Fukushima. Whilst there were significant signs that PEN was going to reverse, no analysis predicted the hammering that PEN is currently taking (Tech/A only stated a correction to 0.095).

2 lesson I have learn with PEN so far:
Don't be too greedy, a short-term rise in SP of 200%-300% is very rare.
Sh*t just happens.

Looking for an entry point with PEN as I still believe it is a great stock. The news from Karoo is incredible!! SP seems to have found a floor at around 6c. However with the news from Japan becoming more negative, I am in no rush to re-enter.

Thoughts with the Japanese.

Go PEN

 

[adt100]

Tech I think this is more a position sizing and Black Swan event lesson. Are you suggesting that people that are holding on a weekly or monthly time frame using a positive expectancy system should have sold?

I was in Pen and followed with interest brought at 5.6c and sold this morning as per my system. I split my systems and could easily have been in Pen on a weekly or 4 hrly timeframe. Don't forget people hold Pen for all sorts of reasons and everyone gets what they want from the market don't they? I am happy to be out and move on with a small profit (was a big one not long ago) and on to the next.

I have followed this thread with interest but didn't contibute as I know little about the company but have enjoyed yours and others contributions. I would be inclined to allign myself with SKC and say if I was holding fundamentally then a lot seems to have changed that I don't yet understand. There will be opportunity coming but one needs to be around to take advantage of it. To those that still hold best of luck and I hope this turns out ok for you. Who knows in a few weeks I could be back in? Wait and See

 

[boff]

Whilst there were significant signs that PEN was going to reverse, no analysis predicted the hammering that PEN is currently taking (Tech/A only stated a correction to 0.095).

I believe that the news over the weekend should have given all the material that one would have needed for a fundamental analysis, and that combined with tech analysis from tech/a *should* have had us all running for the hills.
As I alluded to before open yesterday, I had sell orders in before the bell and was lucky to have been taken at 0.095. But that luck was predicated on watching the news and putting two and two together.
Like many have said this particular black swan has been a lesson for us all, myself included (I incorrectly believed that the rout in my portfolio would be limited to uranium stocks.......)

 

[tech/a]

However, I think no one could have foreseen

You dont have to forsee anything I lost a few K myself when it ran straight through my buy then stop.
But the point is it was 6 ticks and a few here have gone 100 ticks from top to now.
Thats just un excusable---while I feel the pain it could have and should have been avoided at least 90 ticks!!

Im no genius price told and tells all.

 

[Boggo]

Excuse my charting ignorance, which is complete... is the suggestion that 3.5 is the next level it could fall to?

That's the theory.
They are significant levels or points under normal circumstances, at the moment though the negative sentiment has the upper hand.
They could be considered potential support/decision/turning points.

A similiar pattern in play on the XAO at the moment as it approaches one of those levels at around 4560.

Just my

 

[chensteiger]

I believe that the news over the weekend should have given all the material that one would have needed for a fundamental analysis.

I was referring to the analysis done prior to the news over the weekend.

With regards to after knowledge of the news in Japan, I believe (for what its worth) selling would have been the logical thing to do from both a fundamental and a T/A point of view.

 

[bathuu]

Another BIG RED day for PEN. Touching 6 cents and it looks like buyers are dried out no-one is wanting to touch it and way too many sellers holding dead duck on other side of the line could send the price down to floor in another day again. All the rules of fundamentals and technicals have been broken by market fear in short term. At least I am happy to hear that everyone else, not only me as a beginner, have learnt one hell of lesson from PEN's price action.

 

[DB008]

I'm getting smashed to bits on this stock. Ouch...

 

[Billyb]

Damn this stock is cheap now, and probably will get cheaper.

Emotions are what drives us to buy or sell and emotions are driven by how much we invest in the company. I only invested $2000 in this baby, so I'm not really worried.
It's interesting reading how people are talking about lessons they learned from this as though the whole PEN journey is over and it is time to reflect. In actual fact, the PEN journey has only just begun, hell, they are still a couple of years from selling to the market last time I checked.

Guys who have done the research will tell you this thing is still gonna do well long term. Current prices are almost as low as what they were when PEN was nowhere near as fundamentally sound as it is now. Clearly, the price has nowhere to go but up (long term)...and I think people with balls of steel that buy at these cheap prices and hold will be rewarded.

By the way, no recommendation of course, just what I think.

 

[axelord]

If "buying at current price and holding long term" is a prove for "balls of steel", then

"at a lose of 10k and still holding" could be a prove of "balls of diamond" (unscratched)

And that's me..!

At the moment the holders of PEN are acting like a herd of sheep!

 

[Boggo]

Hi all, tough few days for PEN

Tech/a...well done with the charting research. I did a bit of my own research at post 1008 which backed up your analysis and thank goodness I sold out on Friday at $0.12.

2 lesson I have learn with PEN so far:
Don't be too greedy, a short-term rise in SP of 200%-300% is very rare.
Sh*t just happens.

Excellent post and the only way to survive.

Damn this stock is cheap now, and probably will get cheaper.

Ridiculous statement, if it is going to get cheaper then it is expensive now.

At the moment the holders of PEN are acting like a herd of sheep!

Or gamblers.


(click to expand)

 

[skc]

Would someone care to do a valuation on what PEN may be worth and outlining the major assumptions (e.g. uranium price and discount rate)?

 

[thestevo888]

Would someone care to do a valuation on what PEN may be worth and outlining the major assumptions (e.g. uranium price and discount rate)?

That's probably the most important post (in my books!) this week. Surely there are some wise and experienced fundies who can break it down for us?

One factor that sticks in my mind, despite selling my entire holdings this week is that PEN has higher grade uranium than most explorers/producers. This could be especially critical in the times ahead, assuming lower U prices and reduced margins. Provided PEN's funding isn't an issue (and this is a big if) once they start small scale production early next year they will have cash to bankroll further development at Lance and Karoo.
Everything really depends on the price of Uranium going forward. IF the situation is contained in Japan, this time next year or the year after may see prices back to where they were last week. If NOT, then, as others have suggested, this may be a very long wait. It's a massive gamble in my books - events in Japan have already hurt investor sentiment against Uranium mining - will things there get worse or improve? I'm on the fence until either the situation is genuinely contained or the sp falls much lower.

 

[basilio]

There is a very real possibility that the catastrophe in Japan will cause a total review of the future of nuclear power. This has always been the achilles heel of nuclear power. If there is an accident the consequences will be far more severe and long lasting that anything that could happen to a coal fired power station etc. Like the Three mile island incident in 1979 we could see mass cancellations of projected new stations.

Another option is to go back to the drawing board and demand even more stringent safety precautions. That is possible but the cost would be astronomical and put nuclear power way out of economic contention with any other technology.

And of course if the current situation gets out of hand the consequences of a poisoned Japan with hundreds of thousands of people affected by radiation sickness would probably kill the entire industry not to mention crippling the worlds economy..

 

[tech/a]

Are you suggesting that people that are holding on a weekly or monthly time frame using a positive expectancy system should have sold?

Absolutely.To watch a profit get smashed and worse turn into a loss is plain irresponsible trading in my book.--No its actually very stupid trading.

There are some traders here who have (Estimated and reputedly) 1.5 millon (+) shares One suggested an average price of 3.6c so his cost---lets work on 1.5 million shares was $54,000 a week or so ago it was worth $232,500. At 11.5c it was worth $172,500
so there was $120,000 THROWN away.
IF the holder was that convinced in PEN had sold an re bought that WOULD HAVE given him at todays prices a further 4 million shares. 2 million shares wasted!!

Would someone care to do a valuation on what PEN may be worth and outlining the major assumptions (e.g. uranium price and discount rate)?

This again is lunacy
A week ago this stock had un questionable fundamentals.The market has purely taken an anti uranium view due to the reactor issues in Japan---The company HASNT changed.
My question to you guys is how are you going to take advantage of the small window you'll get to get in at rock bottom pricing.
It will come and go in a flash and Fundamentals wont cut it for this opportunity.They will be far too slow.
The only option Ive seen on this forum so far is keep buying the knife as it falls.
Dumbest trading you'll ever see.

 

[barney]

While I dont expect a crash I do expect a sizable correction.
When is not exactly clear it could be in the making now.

so I never underestimate the fear of a crowd all running for the exit.

Looks like a pretty fair call in advance there tech.

Lottery Tickets as we mentioned. Lets hope for some better fortune in that regard



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Ticket Numbers: 144556, 157784, 177651, 197499, 217283

 

[tech/a]

There is a very real possibility that the catastrophe in Japan will cause a total review of the future of nuclear power. This has always been the achilles heel of nuclear power. If there is an accident the consequences will be far more severe and long lasting that anything that could happen to a coal fired power station etc. Like the Three mile island incident in 1979 we could see mass cancellations of projected new stations.

Another option is to go back to the drawing board and demand even more stringent safety precautions. That is possible but the cost would be astronomical and put nuclear power way out of economic contention with any other technology.

And of course if the current situation gets out of hand the consequences of a poisoned Japan with hundreds of thousands of people affected by radiation sickness would probably kill the entire industry not to mention crippling the worlds economy..

OMG
Typical over emotive rehetoric.Give me a break the solution is to earthquake proof reactors.Theyve done it with buildings and the Japanese will become EXPERTS in Nuclear technology.
Hell they survived 2 nuclear bombs to grow to the most innovative leaders in technology on the planet---its still there and so is their resolve.

Barney
You never know perhaps you and I will get a "Black Swan event"!!!

 

[explod]

Reactors need to be in huge floating concrete tubs off the coasts with stabilisation so that in a level position in a tidal wave they will only move up or down.

Hey Tech, should we get a patent cover note on that?

Maybe we could manufacture them here in Port Phillip Bay.

ps. No , would not get them out of the heads due to protesters

 

[DB008]

Reactors need to be in huge floating concrete tubs off the coasts with stabilisation so that in a level position in a tidal wave they will only move up or down.

Put the Nuclear Reactors in floating concrete tubs ? And during a typhoon they'll be right mate....And if they sink/crack/split?

On average 10.3 typhoons a year approach within 300 kilometers of the coast of Japan. Years in which 12 or more strike this areas are known as years with many typhoons. Years with eight or less are known as having “few” typhoons. Most make land fall in Okinawa or south Kyushu, particularly Miyazaki and Kagoshima Prefectures.

That would be like putting the spend rods 'above' the reactor. Hold on, that's what they did....

 

[basilio]

OMG
Typical over emotive rehetoric.Give me a break the solution is to earthquake proof reactors.Theyve done it with buildings and the Japanese will become EXPERTS in Nuclear technology.
Hell they survived 2 nuclear bombs to grow to the most innovative leaders in technology on the planet---its still there and so is their resolve.

Actually tech/TA the suggestion of a far more secure nuclear power station was what I said. The trouble with that is the cost which would blow the economics of the plant out of the water.

I don't necessarily accept the over emotional rhetoric charge. We are still in a fluid situation and there is a chance of widespread nuclear radiation that at the least would make large areas of land uninhabitable. And these reactors are relatively well built and relatively safe - compared to say the Soviet reactors.

On a cost benefit basis it is possible that nuclear power will not be the best solution to our energy needs.