PEN - Peninsula Energy

Tech/a is not the least bit interested in PEN. Hang Seng is his object for reasons he(Tech/a) only knows.
Tech/a you are full of BS and the argument here will be testimony of that. Each day your posts look sicker and sicker.
Take Hang Seng on at your peril....LOLOLOL

This is wrong to victomise any one or attack anyone. Its friday so maybe people have had a few, i know i have.

How ever there are many here, some quietly watching others not so quite, who are hanging on and learning on, everything that is said by HS and tech and others on this thread.
There will be what is thought of as to a winner and a looser from all this banter but it will only be contained to this one stock. No one nows where this stock will be in 2 days let alone 1 year.
There is no need to bring personalitly, personnel opinion or bias into this debate. I think its fantastic that these two guys are going (somewhat) head to head. There is so much to learn from this debate from a new comers point of view that to have it spoiled because someone doesnt agree with anothers point of view is ludicrous.
Let time roll on and eventually there will be a "so called winner" how ever i dont think there is a need for name calling or agro or anything else. let the stock do its thing and the ëxperts or seasoned traders give there honest opinion!
Rant over, Tech, H/S and others please stand up many are listening!

Im proud to say I hold PEN. Obviously I dont agree with some of the points made here or I would'nt have brought the stock!

However I would be a fool IMO to not want to hear both sides of the argument.

It just gives you more information on your investment, and really we are getting both a fundamental AND a technical analysis on the stock. Cant ask for much more than that!

As long as it doesn't turn personal, I said let em at it!

Round 2.. DING DING!

Purd2 said:

Tech/a is not the least bit interested in PEN. Hang Seng is his object for reasons he(Tech/a) only knows.
Tech/a you are full of BS and the argument here will be testimony of that. Each day your posts look sicker and sicker.
Take Hang Seng on at your peril....LOLOLOL

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It could be:-

..tech vs.Hang Seng
.....:samurai:

OR ..perhaps


tech vs Hang Seng
...:axt:



Or .. perhaps tech will pick up more PEN shares at 8.4 cents and it will be ...

tech+Hang Seng
..:bier:

Purd2 said:

Tech/a is not the least bit interested in PEN. Hang Seng is his object for reasons he(Tech/a) only knows.
Tech/a you are full of BS and the argument here will be testimony of that. Each day your posts look sicker and sicker.
Take Hang Seng on at your peril....LOLOLOL

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Mate ease up. That's completely uncalled for and incredibly rude and immature. Both Tech/a and HangSeng have valid arguments supporting their view. Not everyone will view a stock the same way and the pettiness and immaturity of you and others here has been amazing.

At least HangSeng has had the decency to acknowledge Tech/a's different opinion and both are sticking to their guns (as they should). Regardless of the outcome you should be happy that such an experienced trader (Tech/a) and fundie (HangSeng) are willing to pull out all stops with their analysis and prevent their views for all to see and provide counter-arguments rather than stoop to pathetic, derogatory comments posted by an immature and crass individual.

'immature and crass individual'
did you just stoop KJM ?

its been a fun week have a good weekend all.

My first post here , had a read through past posts and the quality is excellent! I hope all are enjoying the ride PEN is taking us on.


I attended the meeting today and come out feeling even better about my investment than I thought possible.

As Hangseng often says “so much to look forward too.”

Someone asked about NRC permit timelines, Gus of course could not commit himself to any specific timeframe but emphasised the approach taken by PEN. Tony Simpson was well recieved at NRC head quarters recently when there to offer company support for the review process, outsourcing some of the reviews with the tab to be picked up by PEN. They liked the idea and it would be money very well spent if it comes about. Just how proactive is PEN?

I asked about Karoo. Some historical holes have been cleaned out and logged, others have been “twinned” to confirm the grades. There is at least one RC rig drilling and I know they can knock out some footage at a very fast rate. We can expect some results soon. Gus spoke about the known grades and how the resource is near surface. I personally think Karoo will be Lance’s big brother.

Early construction permit cannot be applied for until NRC accept the request for a source material license. The early construction permit will be applied for then.

I asked if any acquisition's were in the pipeline, Gus replied “I can’t comment on that.”

RFP was mentioned and I got the impression that we will hear some news on that soon as well. Long term and around the $80 mark for part production.

I also asked Alf Gillman, after the meeting, about the local green groups in Wyoming. PEN has been very pro-active with them as well. The last question from the most vocal one was “how many jobs will there be?â

yuro said:

My first post here , had a read through past posts and the quality is excellent! I hope all are enjoying the ride PEN is taking us on.


I attended the meeting today and come out feeling even better about my investment than I thought possible.

As Hangseng often says “so much to look forward too.”

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Cheers Yuro .... Your input is very much appreciated.

ps Are you having any trouble keeping the smile off your face!!

Yuro
Well done for your questioning of Gus at the meeting today.
I noticed you left the meeting with a smile on your face that was as wide as everybody else who was in attendance.
I guess the best summary of the meeting was a remark I overheard by 3 shareholders who sat together. They all asked a few questions at the meeting.

At the end of the meeting they looked at each other and said " Well we better buy more shares"

Bring on Karoo !!!!!!!

Purd2 said:

Tech/a is not the least bit interested in PEN.

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not right at the moment but as i have posted that could alter.

Hang Seng is his object for reasons he(Tech/a) only knows.

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H/S isnt an object of wrath he has a strong fundamental opinion with a bias due to his position thats fine---i'm sure we'd both enjoy a beer and a laugh---hopefully someday that will happen---when he pulls up his Liner on the beach out front!

Tech/a you are full of BS and the argument here will be testimony of that. Each day your posts look sicker and sicker.
Take Hang Seng on at your peril....LOLOLOL

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Have to agree that this comment could only come from a young inexperienced snapper.
The view is a technical one one which has both encompassed the positive and the "shorter term" negative side of the trade.
The analysis still stands and whether 8.4c is reached or 13.5c is reached on the up side---the commentary is currently focused around the interesting battle in this current consolidation.

If it breaks out this level is likely to then act as very strong support.

If it fails then this area is likely to act as very strong resistance.

No offense old mate, but your jibe was way off the target, and any trader worth his salt would have made money on both the 30th and 31st on LEG.... and you know it ... I hope

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Oh I agree and I was one of them.

I wasn't meaning it to be a jibe?? I'm lost as to what your saying.

I am glad I make your Spice rack.
Click to expand---if interested.



Not bad for a few days.

tech/a said:

I wasn't meaning it to be a jibe?? I'm lost as to what your saying.

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There was no offence taken tech, and I'm not looking to rehash yesterdays banter, but we obviously disagree that professional traders/Investors who wish to accumulate stock, buy large parcels of shares and on-sell X amount (at various price points) to lower their base entry level and minimize risk.

I happen to see that as smart accumulation, and you see it as dumb .... no point arguing about it.

I'm actually more concerned that you don't remember as far back as yesterday:

tech/a said:

Oh I agree and I was one of them.

I am glad I make your Spice rack.
Click to expand---if interested.

View attachment 41203

Not bad for a few days.

Click to expand...

Spice rack
5K ... the trade was good.

yuro said:

My first post here , had a read through past posts and the quality is excellent! I hope all are enjoying the ride PEN is taking us on.


I attended the meeting today and come out feeling even better about my investment than I thought possible.

RFP was mentioned and I got the impression that we will hear some news on that soon as well. Long term and around the $80 mark for part production.

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Thanks alot for the info. That RPS and $80 dollars sounds and looks nice as it really puts some fire under the PFS figures.

I happen to see that as smart accumulation, and you see it as dumb .... no point arguing about it.

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Nothing wrong with the method.
But like everything---when it comes off your a genius.
When it doesn't its less than genius.

This would have to be the most popular thread on the forum for the past week - great work to all! It's been most interesting and even amusing at times.

A quick question to those on the "fundie" side of the divide... in the latest Hartley's broker report the figure of 60cps was bandied about. I only read through it once, so I might have missed something obvious, but was that supposed to be in reference to 2012, 2015 or even 2020? No dates seem to be mentioned in connection with the possible price. Thoughts anyone?
Cheers, Steve.

thestevo888 said:

This would have to be the most popular thread on the forum for the past week - great work to all! It's been most interesting and even amusing at times.

A quick question to those on the "fundie" side of the divide... in the latest Hartley's broker report the figure of 60cps was bandied about. I only read through it once, so I might have missed something obvious, but was that supposed to be in reference to 2012, 2015 or even 2020? No dates seem to be mentioned in connection with the possible price. Thoughts anyone?
Cheers, Steve.

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http://www.pel.net.au/images/peninsul-134--ahniushohh.pdf

Revisiting the Upside Case >60cps Possible
There has been some dilution since we last visited the upside potential of the
Company; however, the spot uranium price has increased by over 75% since
that time. Given the 150mlb potential resource in South Africa and potential of
80mlb from the USA results in a possible upside valuation of >60cps using an
average $ per lb of US$7.80. This does not factor in additional upside potential
from growth opportunities that may be facilitated by the presence of Pala or
further increases in the uranium price. Achievement of a valuation approaching
this potential is by no means easy; however, management have a strong track
record of delivery.

Share Price Valuation (NAV) $m $/share
Ross/Barber @ 10% 152.1 0.05
Exploration (Lance/Karoo) 313.8 0.10
Cash 32.0 0.01
Debt 0.0 0.00
Equity Capital 35.0 0.01
Corp Admin (20.0) (0.01)
Options 20.6 0.01
Total 533.5 0.17

Valuation
Discounted Cashflow @10% Real $0.17
3 Mth Price Target $0.14

Hartleys previous reports.

Jan 2011
Valuation Discounted Cashflow @10% Real $0.15
3 Mth Price Target $0.12

Dec 2010
Valuation
Discounted Cashflow @10% Real $0.11
3 Mth Price Target $0.09

Oct 2010
Valuation
Discounted Cashflow @10% Real $0.11
3 Mth Price Target $0.09 Actual High in Jan2011 .115

Sept 2010
Valuation
Discounted Cashflow @10% Real$0.11
6 Mth Price Target$0.09 Feb high .115

Aug 2010
Valuation
Discounted Cashflow @10% Real$0.11
6 Mth Price Target$0.09

May 2010
Share price .034
6 Mth target .089 Nov actual high .067

Jan 2010
Share price .052
6 Mth target .10 Actual july high .037

So yes as a holder i like the latest hartleys report and i gues they havent been doing to badly in relation to PEN over the last 12 months. Lets hope ther still on the money.

tech/a said:

Nothing wrong with the method.
But like everything---when it comes off your a genius.
When it doesn't its less than genius.

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Totally agree ..... and genii are a rare commodity

thestevo888 said:

A quick question to those on the "fundie" side of the divide... in the latest Hartley's broker report the figure of 60cps was bandied about.

Click to expand...

I'm no fundie Stevo, and I'm sure Hang Seng and others will be in to give an opinion.

The 60 cents per share was an upside scenario based on Wyoming achieving 80 mlb and Karoo (the "theoretically" unknown) achieving 150 mlb ..... so it is a forward looking projection assuming certain production criteria is met ...

Will a 60 cent SP be achieved in the near term ..... thats unrealistic ....

Will 60 cps be achieved in the longer term .. 60 cents would give PEN a market cap of a $Billion+ .......PDN have a market cap of $3.7 Billion .....

My fundamentals are simplistic .... Do I think the PEN management can get this Co to a third of PDN's MC over the next few years based on their forward projections of Income production? .. (no brainer for me

Hartleys latest report indicates Karoo (which is in its infant stages) has a projected 150 mlb

How can they make this assumption based on current knowledge?? .... Sometimes we have to read between the lines .....

Management (who commission Hartleys) are telling us they already know what Karoo is capable of ... before its made market sensitive .... Its a Ripleys !!! ... You either believe it, or not ... but if its true .....

Anyway, enough rambling from me ... there are real fundamentalists who will give you something concrete to mull over other than my corporate subterfuge theories .... Bear in mind I may be "on the money" though
Cheers.

Those referring to Purd as immature, young, and inexperienced...you are totally incorrect, he is anything but on all three counts. He is a gentlemen, intelligent and an experienced successful investor.

Back to PEN, I have had a good look at the best chart I have ever used to watch stocks progress. It uses MMA's and I have added in the DMI and MACD both weekly and daily.

I will leave it to the masses to make up their own minds, however one observation. The DMI in the weekly shows the +ve indicator turing down, this hides reality in that the daily is displaying a reversal of the DMI +ve indicator trend upward again. Both charts have the price indicator candles at weekly, only the lower indicators have been changed from weekly to daily.

I will also argue that the sp of PEN isn't parabolic as has been suggested. It is in a very strong uptrend as indicated by the widenening MMA's. Also noted is the trend of bouncing off the 3rd MMA consistently as it has done again, each time moving higher.

If anything I see the sp going higher as indicated by the fib levels or at worse going sideways for a short period whilst the supply is transferred to willing buyers. However my money is on it going higher to around the 13.5/14c level sooner rather than later.

enjoy...

Hi Barney, I agree that 60cps short term is unrealistic. It is based on projected figures only and I also agree it is not only achieveable it could go far higher if both Lance and Karoo prove up to be what the company is indicating. Hartleys have remained conservative as they should.

The Karro estimate is based on past results carried out by PEN and also known results from historical drilling conducted by the likes of the original lease owners, Union Carbide and JCI. JCI (sites 22 and 45) and Union Carbide (site 45). Also the "target areas pegged as a result of published SA Government reports on the results of a 1980's radiometric survey and a 1990's sampling and mapping project for Mo and uranium."
source: http://www.pel.net.au/projects/karoo_region__south_africa.phtml

The Karoo Basin is a part of what is known as the "Karoo Supergroup" and hosts known uranium and molybdenum deposits. It has a lot of similarities to Namibia where EXT, PDN and BMN are, although it is mostly sandstone hosted uranium at Karoo and will be easy mining as the resource is near surface. What we don't know is how deep it goes due to the surface soil masking the past radiometric results.

There is not only 150M/lbs indicated, PEN has reported very high grades of Molybdenum (Mo) from Karoo. This could add 50% to the value of the total resource, of which isn't factored into any share price estimate.

What would the value of PEN be if they achieve the upside figures indicated of a combined 300M/lbs of uranium and the 50% addition of Molybdenum at Karoo? I would put it quite comfortably at the very least being 50% of the market capitalisation of PDN. I say 50% as PDN is trading at a massive p/e ratio, of which I am not sure will continue and I personally find unrealistic. Also why I haven't bought PDN shares, I will leave that to the brave as I believe the risk is far too high now.

I haven't even mentioned the vanadium credits, of which are increasing, any aquisition that may take place, nor the fact PEN has applied for a Toll Milling license. All of which bring the metrics of PEN into a new higher league altogther. Basically the upside potential of PEN I see as massive now, far more than even this permabull thought may occur.

When we touch 60c I will make tech/a happy and realise part of my holdings for a rather massive profit to play with, while I wait for the balance to achieve full potential. If PEN falters in any way and looks like not achieving all stated then I will say goodbye completely and move on to the next PEN, of which I am now seeking.

I can't wait for the DFS, this will provide a real indicator for the future.

Thanks for the update Yuro by the way, and wipe that million $ smile off your face hahahahaha. Soon to be multi for you eh...
A classic example of risk reward paying off! Buying when there was blood on the streets, a man of my own heart

Damn thats a good looking chart.