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PEN - Peninsula Energy

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Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

z-trader said:
Fair enough, but PEN is a speccie, and some would call the act of making plausible assumptions about the future.... speculating!

z-trader
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Someone is in a hurry to buy PENOA this morning. Three times the volume on the heads. Another announcement is in the post I'd say.

z-trader
 
Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

z-trader said:
Someone is in a hurry to buy PENOA this morning. Three times the volume on the heads. Another announcement is in the post I'd say.

z-trader
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Perhaps PEN are about to announce that they've done lab testing of some cores at Barber so shareholders are no longer left wondering whether the permeability and porosity are similar to those returned from Ross? Unlikely, but would be nice.

Not sure what affect it would have on the share price though. Hartley's predictions so far on announcements that would catalyse share price appreciation have been mostly wrong.

I believe in January Hartley's claimed that the share price would rise to 8-10 cents on the back of announcements of 1) high grade mineralisation, 2) initial JORC, 3) completion of plant design and 4) commencement of drilling at Karoo.

So far we've had 1 and 3 announced and not much interest from the market. Adding to the fact that Hartley's had a similar 6 month target based on similar logic last year, that was completely missed, I don't put a lot of value in the predictions of Hartley's. There's a common human failing that causes us to only remember predictions that turned out correct, but if you look at Hartley's track record with PEN over the last year they seem to have almost no better predictive powers than a coin. Incidentally though, I just flipped a coin and I'm sure everyone will be relieved to know that the coin predicts a positive future for PEN.

Seriously though, I want to see the volumes improve on PEN before I start adding to my position significantly in anticipation of any re-rating. If initial JORC does come out early (in Mar-Apr for instance), then I expect there'll be an obvious build up in volume beforehand. Surely there'll be more than $1-200 000 bucks of daily buying interest if something good is about to be announced. Without the help of an announcement, PEN really needs to break above 5 cents next week to break out of a bearish triangle formation. If it doesn't, then I expect another test of 4.5 cents and possibly 4.1 cents on failure to find support.

z-trader
 
Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Deepen

In response to your private message. IMO, the volumes are too low to argue that PEN is being "held back". The phrase implies that there is a lot of demand for PEN stock but that someone with deep pockets keeps selling to stop the share price rising. If that was the case then we should be seeing high volume and a lot of activity in the market depth. Not happening if you ask me. What I see is a trickle of sell orders gradually overpowering a trickle of buy orders. Market just isn't interested in PEN right now would be my guess.

I agree it's been frustrating having dead money in PEN for so long, but am hopeful that initial JORC will make the wait worthwhile. I've generally been tackling a lot of negatives lately, but that's because the positives are covered extensively, if not overstated, elsewhere (ie hotcopper.com).

z-trader
 
Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

It would be good to see the details of how many injection holes (spacing) will be needed for each front. Also how much water needs to be injected and the cost.

I maybe wrong but as head height increases the amount of energy needed would increase? Just commenting on Hangseng.

dyor
 
Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals


At around 15K a pop, the number of wells required per pound of Uranium is probably the most important factor for profitability.

I've noticed a few punters are scratching their heads, wondering why the share price is where it is, but if you remove the hype and take what is actually reported about Lance, if you use the spot price, and the actual current exchange rate, and assume 10yrs production at 1.5m pounds per year, then the NPV is only $38 million, so the share price is actually already 50% above such a pessimistic valuation.

If you keep all the figures the same, but double the mine life to 20 years at 1.5 m pounds per year (not such a big leap to imagine a 30 m pound resource) then the NPV is pretty much dead on the current market cap.

It's funny how anchoring works. People are used to companies being valued on hype so when a company is actually valued on reported facts only, minus exuberance, they think something is wrong!

For the sake of being balanced, I calculate an optimistic hyped up valuation of Lance at around $307 m AUD. However, to get there I have to assume 20 years of production at 2 m pounds per year and also that PEN will secure the long term price of $60 USD. Strictly evaluating what is factual, these two feats are far from a certainty, so it seems prudent to price in some risk to me, and I think that's what the market is doing.

I'm hopeful that the Uranium price will start rising again because I think Nuclear power is the best way forward for the world, but it's important not to be blinded by idealistic notions. More nuclear plants does not automatically equal a higher price for Uranium in the near future. Not until all the weaponised stockpiles of Uranium are used up. With Obama's recent pledge to massively reduce US warheads, I feel there's a high chance that it will be used to finance his $53 billion nuclear power commitment, and with Russia/US supplying the market, there's no shortage for 10 years at least. PEN will hopefully be able to make a profit in that future, but for me there's a question mark over whether PEN will have pricing power, or the buyers will. I suspect it'll be a buyers market so for now I think it's safer to assume that PEN will only obtain the spot price.

z-trader
 
Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

z-trader said:
At around 15K a pop, the number of wells required per pound of Uranium is probably the most important factor for profitability.
z-trader
Click to expand...

That not too much money. I suppose it then depends on the spacing and as you said the wells versus pounds recovered versus costs.

I wonder would the company release that sort of info or would it be IP/design information?

Thanks dyor
 
Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Megacents said:
I wonder would the company release that sort of info or would it be IP/design information?
Click to expand...

Somewhat a matter of discretion for PEN, but we should definitely get finer grained detail in the upcoming feasibility studies. At the moment we can only say that the costs will be little threat to the profitability of many nose areas, but may come into play when determining how much of the tail we can actually get out of the ground at a profit.

z-trader
 
Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Good to see PEN getting the positive attention so long deserved these last couple of days.

The next lot of announcements, especially initial jorc (and hopefully PFS results), would be the main driver of that I feel pretty certain.

Lets hope it sustains and brings in some new longer term investors.
 
Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals


All stocks rally when their TA signals hit bottom. PEN failed to close on its high today so I doubt there's much steam left in this run. Nothing has changed for PEN since last week.

z-trader
 
Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

z-trader said:
All stocks rally when their TA signals hit bottom. PEN failed to close on its high today so I doubt there's much steam left in this run. Nothing has changed for PEN since last week.

z-trader
Click to expand...

Hi Z Trader

Hope you are well.
I have been following PEN movement.
I believe it is an excellent growth share . when market was down PEN rose up. The volume of sales today is outstanding.
Consistent rise of the price - not too high but steady to win the race.
I will not be cynical on this scrip and it is just unfortunate that I sold out prematurely.

Herewith I present extract from ASX as saw at 9.45 AM Tuesday WST
Delayed share price
Prices are delayed by at least 20 minutes. Retrieving any price indicates your acceptance of the Conditions.

Code Last % Chg Bid Offer Open High Low Vol
PEN 0.048 2.13% 0.048 0.049 0.047 0.052 0.047 22,835,728

22 Mar 2010 0.047 4.44% 0.049 0.046 13,257,961
19 Mar 2010 0.045 7.14% 0.045 0.042 2,981,964
18 Mar 2010 0.042 0% 0.042 0.042 1,855,727
17 Mar 2010 0.042 0% 0.043 0.042 2,435,133




Hangseng

Well done and thanks for your trust on PEN for good technical reasons.
Today PEN already changed hands with 22 million shares by mid day with an excellent announcement. It will be very naive to suggest that PEN does not have the strength. Unfortunately I was not a believer and sold out

But I believe the re-entry point is only with cash to be put in Commsec. DNH.
 
Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Hi Miner

The volume is exceptional for PEN which usually can barely trade 2 million shares a day, but the announcement didn't contain much of substance IMO. It's great that timelines are being moved forward, but for me it's the content of the announcements that matters, much less so the timing. Some may argue that a Karoo target of 30m lbs was material, but it's just a target, and with no plans to mine an undefined resource for at least 5 years, I'd suggest a pretty big risk premium would erode most of the value attributable to PEN's share price, today.

IMO the lack of material content may have led to the sell off today. I believe traders would be asking where's the beef? Not much in today's announcement could be used to refine or update the company valuation. I believe you'll get another chance to buy lower, the rise has been pretty steep in a very short period, but leading up to mid/end April we may start to see anticipation building ahead of announcements. JMO.

z-trader
 
Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Thanks Miner, I have been a believer in PEN for a very long time but based on fundamentals of what I always believed and still do will potentially be an excellent uranium producing company with two excellent projects.

I enjoy Technical analysis but often get it wrong. However it doesn't prevent me from looking at it closely, I do often get it right for technical entry points, which is mainly what I use T/A for. It is well known here by most who know me I first find a company I want to be in for reasons I find worthwhile in sectors I understand. I then use T/A to define an entry point and any thereafter as funds become available.

Last week I was lucky enough to have some spare funds and again bought PEN as it bounced of 4.2 again and again giving a strong support signal.

Today’s announcement again displays the progressive nature of PEN' management and clearly they are pushing hard to get PEN to production at Lance. The company making project IMO that will provide all necessary to progress Karoo and provide further value to investors like myself.

No surprise to me that Jorc is coming earlier, I just didn't expect it this early. What I really want to see though is the PFS data so hopefully they release some pertinent information.

I can understand why you and others pulled out. It has been a long haul, with many ups and downs testing many. However that is what investing and the market is is about so we are led to believe...
"The transfer from the impatient to the patient" something like that anyway.

I am one very patient old sod and have needed to be with PEN But I feel the time is nearing when I can finally capitalise on this patience to some degree.

Just in time for semi-retirement hopefully
 
Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

hangseng said:
I am one very patient old sod and have needed to be with PEN But I feel the time is nearing when I can finally capitalise on this patience to some degree.
Click to expand...

Looks like PEN is capitalising on your patience too. Makes the obvious leaking of info last week all the more insulting. This kind of abuse of shareholders is what is damaging the register. There's no defensible reason why the announcements couldn't have come together, so it reflects on management negatively. Every time Gus does something like this, it disenfranchises a number of would be holders.

Just as every time the choir starts singing about it being the last time to get on board, and then being wrong, also destroys trust and disenfranchises even more would be holders. The announcements yesterday and today are rightly being seen as a 1-2 punch to shareholders.

z-trader
 
Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Last time PEN had a cap raising, the share price fell below the issue price, so at least those who want to get in may still get a chance. It's possible that it'll be some amazing deal where the other party showers money over PEN for peanuts in return like some are speculating elsewhere, but more realistically it will be a deal which benefits both parties equally, in the long term. Iow, I think it's safest to assume some dilution, some short term pain, but in the long term, PEN + another bucket of money will be a stronger company.

z-trader
 
RCR Uranium Sector Research_ Peninsula Minerals

Finally another research report on PEN, with a comparison table of other advanced uranium companies in Wyoming, displaying PEN in the enviable position of being well ahead of its peers there.

For the full report sign up to http://www.rcresearch.com.au/

In part...

Resource Capital Research
22nd March 2010

Peninsula Minerals Limited
PEN is advancing the prospective Lance ISR project in Wyoming. Key resource and economic data are expected 2Q10. BFS expected 1H11; production potential 2012. A significant re-rating of PEN's share price is anticipated as project parameters are confirmed 2010.

Focused on uranium - 2010 total exploration and
evaluation budget A$25m; A$20m earmarked for Lance.

Lance ISR project (WY): potential production 2012;
Production target 1.5mlbspa U3O8; PEN est. total opex
US$26/lb; initial capex US$60m. NPV breakeven
~US$30/lb U3O8.

Lance project regional exploration target 70 to 90mlbs U3O8 grading 0.05 - 0.07%. Ross and Barber target 12 to 18mlbs U3O8. 4 rigs on site.

Initial JORC resource and PFS expected 2Q10.

Karoo Project: shallow, high grade mineralisation identified from surface to 40m - exploration target of 90 to 150mlbs U3O8 grading 0.12 to 0.14%.

Karoo Project: Resource definition drilling 1H10 - 10
priority drill targets; scoping study expected 2H10. Mid term target 30mlbs U3O8 2012.


Investment Comment:
PENs valuation is driven by the Lance ISR uranium project with production visibility, potentially 2012. While key resource and project data are yet to be confirmed (expected 2Q10) robust project economics are indicated with a breakeven project NPV of ~US$30/lb U3O8. At the current long term price (US$60/lb U3O8) and assuming an initial resource (mid target range) of 15mlbs grading 0.065, total opex US$26/lb, initial capex US$60m, NPV is over US$120m (10% r/i), with upside to anticipated further regional exploration success. PENs share price has potential to be re-rated to $0.06-0.08/share near term as project milestones are met 2Q10. WY is a uranium friendly state, combined with PENs use of experienced external permitting consultants, and new streamlined permitting timeframes in the US, positions the company well to fast track regulatory approvals.
 
Re: RCR Uranium Sector Research_ Peninsula Minerals



Hangseng

It is your day with long persistence and hard work on PEN paying off.
Attached the announcement of capital raising .

I think with 4 cents attaching one free option is real value proposition for the holders. I do not hold but that is non issue.

Congratulations to the believers who held tight on PEN

I feel pity for those who have been unsuccessfully campaigning (ramping ) against PEN recently.

My condolence to myself and likewise others who lost faith on PEN and sold out instead of holdng
 

Attachments

  • PEN CAPITAL 25032010.pdf
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Re: RCR Uranium Sector Research_ Peninsula Minerals

Miner

There's every chance you'll get to buy shares around 4 cents over the next couple of weeks so I see no reason for your praise or your lament. Just pick yourself up and get ready to jump back on the horse.

Just ignore all the talk of it being the last chance to get on. I must have heard that one a dozen times over the last year and every time it's been dead wrong. I recommend you take a real close look at who's saying what and how often they get it correct, because it's clear from your posting lately, that you need to pay more attention in that area.

z-trader
 
Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Suffice to say I am very happy with my PEN holdings and even more so that I accumulated a few more over the last few months.

I will be taking up the rights issue in full, as I did the last and I have already sent a request to be included in any shortfall that may eventuate.

The RCR reports sent to me today have increased my confidence in my decision to remain an investor in PEN and to continue to accumulate at these low levels while I can.

I don't get swayed one way or the other by anyone regarding PEN. Over the last 3 years I have researched the company, the management, the consultants they use, the uranium mining and nuclear power industry, the ISR process, Wyoming and the environemntal and regulatory aspects involved.

Lesson number one for any forum reader/contributor...Have faith in what you learn and of your own decisions. Don't be swayed by anyone whether it be positive or negative postings. Only you have the ability to make a decision based on your own appetite for risk and your research.

I am confident my faith in both my own research and PEN will eventually pay off. If I am wrong I will have nobody but myself to blame (and my son will blame me as well). If not my family and I will enjoy every last moment of the rewards my decision to do what I have done offers.

That is all I am concerned with.

Hopefully you can open this link to RCR.

The Resurgence of the United States Domestic Uranium Industry: Who Said it Couldn't Happen?
 
Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

hangseng said:
Suffice to say I am very happy with my PEN holdings and even more so that I accumulated a few more over the last few months.
Click to expand...

The problem is that there's nothing that could happen that would make you unhappy. The price goes down, you tell us you're happy, the company dilutes your holdings, you tell us you're happy. Management awards themselves options for totally unchallenging targets, you're happy. When exactly are you unhappy? If never, then what is the point of telling us you're happy all the time, it loses all meaning!

The RCR reports sent to me today have increased my confidence in my decision to remain an investor in PEN and to continue to accumulate at these low levels while I can.
Click to expand...

The question is why has it increased your confidence, and is that reason rational or not? Anyone can have increasing confidence in the face of all evidence to the contrary! That doesn't take talent or intelligence. It's just blind faith or bias.

A rational holder of Uranium producer shares should be concerned about the RCR report! We don't want a resurgence! A resurgence means more supply and lower prices! The ideal for PEN is to be the last Uranium producer on the planet, not to be one of an increasing number. It's just crazy some of things that get written.

Lesson number one for any forum reader/contributor...Have faith in what you learn and of your own decisions.
Click to expand...

No, self-confidence is what's required. Faith has no place. Faith is a religious term which implies a lack of reason and an inability to change course (after new information). Faith blinds. Reason illuminates.

I am confident my faith in both my own research and PEN will eventually pay off.
Click to expand...

If you believe so strongly that others should make their own judgements then why do you spend so much time telling us about your faith and confidence? Surely doing so has zero benefit to you, but also runs the risk of persuading others to invest solely on your confidence levels. Why do you need to tell us about your emotional appraisal of PEN if you think people should make all decisions based on fact and their own judgement?

z-trader
 
Re: RCR Uranium Sector Research_ Peninsula Minerals

Thanks Z Trader for the encouragement

Even if the share dips down 4 cents how the free option to be valued.

Selfishly I wish your thoughts to be right and I want to step in to buy PEN when it dips below 4 cents .

But I will wait and see before getting too excited as I said 90% time my speculation failed
 
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