PEN - Peninsula Energy

[hangseng]

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Fine thanks Miner, and same to you and yours.

Not sure if this has been posted here previously but here you go anyway...
http://www.clipattic.com/details.ph...rals Ltd&sessionid=1g0ds5gfjimvf6d839a0cu96d5

Miner nothing specific other than the fact for there to be demand for U3O8, there must also be a change in sentiment and along with it nuclear energy plants to be built. The article cited clearly heading that way as a significant change in sentiment. As is the one below.

http://en.cop15.dk/news/view+news?newsid=1571
"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has endorsed nuclear energy as one of the "commercially available climate change mitigating technologies," but IPCC Chairman Rajendra K. Pachauri said nuclear power isn't for everyone.

"Nuclear energy provides a solution (to our climate change problem), but it’s not a solution (fit) for every country in the world. You need a certain infrastructure, engineering skills and safety standards that are followed very strictly. Not every country can ensure that," he said.

Construction of more than 100 nuclear reactors is planned world wide over the next ten years, according to the Canadian uranium mining company Cameco. The global shift toward nuclear power is prompting countries to secure their uranium deliveries with long-term supply agreements and by buying shares in companies producing uranium, reports Reuters."

PEN is heading toward being a producer on or before early 2012 now. There can be no denying how advanced they are and the huge potential of Lance alone, let alone Karoo albeit further down the track.

 

[Miner]

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Fine thanks Miner, and same to you and yours.

Not sure if this has been posted here previously but here you go anyway...
http://www.clipattic.com/details.ph...rals Ltd&sessionid=1g0ds5gfjimvf6d839a0cu96d5

Miner nothing specific other than the fact for there to be demand for U3O8, there must also be a change in sentiment and along with it nuclear energy plants to be built. The article cited clearly heading that way as a significant change in sentiment. As is the one below.

http://en.cop15.dk/news/view+news?newsid=1571
"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has endorsed nuclear energy as one of the "commercially available climate change mitigating technologies," but IPCC Chairman Rajendra K. Pachauri said nuclear power isn't for everyone.

"Nuclear energy provides a solution (to our climate change problem), but it’s not a solution (fit) for every country in the world. You need a certain infrastructure, engineering skills and safety standards that are followed very strictly. Not every country can ensure that," he said.

Construction of more than 100 nuclear reactors is planned world wide over the next ten years, according to the Canadian uranium mining company Cameco. The global shift toward nuclear power is prompting countries to secure their uranium deliveries with long-term supply agreements and by buying shares in companies producing uranium, reports Reuters."

PEN is heading toward being a producer on or before early 2012 now. There can be no denying how advanced they are and the huge potential of Lance alone, let alone Karoo albeit further down the track.

Good update Hang Seng and thanks.
I also noticed that some of the greenies are now turning into nuclear power against their previous myth.
The real mind block is in Australia where our lack of awareness, cleverly played media / green peace efforts, lack of clear direction from Labour Government has been a road blocker in nuclear power reactor in this country.

Let us hope all the good news makes contribution to PEN along with TOE, BHPB, ERA, AGS and others.

 

[hangseng]

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Miner I have also been watching with interest the progress of other uranium miners. PNN, BMN and AGS in particular. Well we had PNN drop out of the race due to high costs. Now we have BMN announcing this from there recent PFS results.

* Expected capital costs of US$555 million for flotation concentrate leaching.
* Expected operating costs for flotation concentrate leaching of US$38/lb U3O8 in the first five years, with an average life-of-mine cost of US$41/lb U3O8.

BMN PFS:
Capex US$555M
Opex US$41/lb (life of mine)

PEN estimated forecast PFS:Capex US$40M (expected to be less)
Opex US$$28.3/lb (life of mine)

I also note in the latest presentation 21/10/09 from PEN the Opex has reduced from US$17/lb to US$15/lb.

I keep saying the benefits of low cost ISR over conventional mining will become the key success factor of Lance and subsequently PEN.

I continue to watch the progress of others with interest. PEN just looks better by the day.

 

[wanlad1]

PEN looks ready to run

PEN has now held its gain day 4 wouldnt be surprised to see end of day run on this one. Consolidation has been attended next I would expect a run.

Firstly the weekly chart so get an overall picture

This one is the daily chart does not have yesterdays pricing

Trading is risky money can be lost speak with your advisor before taking the plunge.

 

[z-trader]

Re: PEN looks ready to run

Good charting wanlad1, although the rally didn't last long because it was more based on hype and technicals than substance.

The true believers are correct that the coming months could bring fantastic returns (with a positive JORC) but their blinkers prevent them from also seeing that this will be one of the most risky periods for PEN. Hydrological testing results will be crucial, as will the initial JORC. IMO Ross is unlikely to be too far from expectations considering the pilot plant in the 70s, but everyone is assuming the same certainty with Barber. Not so at all IMO, chance there'll be some jaws dropped on that one. And of course, delays or disappointments will be severely punished by the market, especially in a climate of an increasing Aussie dollar and/or soverign collapses around the world.

Don't underestimate the impact a rising dollar could have. The hartley's valuation of the project assumed an 80 cent exchange rate. Four experts on lateline a couple of weeks ago predicted parity or higher by mid year. That would lop off around 25% of the hartley's valuation, which is likely to be overly optimistic anyway given that Gus's brother works at hartley's. I still believe in PEN, but BMN showed the same lacklustre performance before its crucial announcement and many were caught with their pants down when the tide went out.

Then there's also the much talked about 100ppm cutoff. I'm very curious about that because the tails of roll fronts can spread out for miles and can be extremely expensive to suck out of the ground. Most pen folk have no clue about the costs of various well patterns and how severely those costs can eat into profits if spread out over a large enough area. I'm certainly going to be taking a real close look at the numbers once more info is released.

z-trader

 

[Deepen]

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Obama's large cash injection to the nuclear energy cause last night will likely help PEN's cause. I like the fact that PEN are actually about to mine (ISR) IN USA where the demand is on the doorstep.

Not sure about the blinkers comment, as I think all the long termers are well aware of the problems, having seen the price held down so well for so long.
It will be good to see the leash let off one day in the not too distant future.

 

[z-trader]

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Obama's large cash injection to the nuclear energy cause last night will likely help PEN's cause. I like the fact that PEN are actually about to mine (ISR) IN USA where the demand is on the doorstep.

Not sure about the blinkers comment, as I think all the long termers are well aware of the problems, having seen the price held down so well for so long.
It will be good to see the leash let off one day in the not too distant future.

Yeah, the USA getting back into nuclear is a big thumb up but unfortunately PEN isn't involved in the building of plants because that's where you'd want to be in the nuclear industry right now. Future shortfalls, schnooture schmortfalls. Few have bothered to update their views of Uranium shortfalls from 2007. I still read the same out of date story (not suggesting that's what you're doing) repeated nearly every week. One key fallacy is that the Russian downgraded supply will end. It's only the megatonnes to megawatts program that is ending. The Russians are likely to continue supplying down graded Uranium outside the program after 2013. I've read that they already plan to sell some directly to US utilities, and the rest will reduce worldwide demand regardless of whether it supplies their own nuclear plants or those of other countries.

That's the short term though. In the medium to long term I still think shortages loom, since despite Copenhagen being billed as a failure, I've seen a steady stream of news from big and small countries starting or restarting their nuclear power programs. There may be no meaningful binding targets yet, but there definitely seems to be a lot of action.

z-trader

 

[reichman]

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Hi Z

I've always read your posts re. PEN on this forum. Your back and forth banter with jetblack last year was highly informative. He was negative, you positive.

Your last couple of posts, whilst not overtly negative, do appear to fly in the face of your exceedingly bullish sentiments during your ongoing jetblack debates from seven or so months back.

For a seemingly calm, anything but over the top poster, your post from July 15 was as bullish as anything I've read on this forum.

"In summary, PEN could be sitting on 100mlbs in Wyoming and 150mlbs in South Africa, and management are deliberately holding off on JORC compliance so that they can remain under the radar for now. For reference, Extract Resources (SP: $6.77, MC: 1.2billion+) is expected to report a total of between 250-300mlbs at Rossing South next month. Extract has a lot of other things going for it, but not enough to explain why its 250mlbs at 450ppm is worth over $1.2 billion while PEN's 250mlbs at 700ppm+ is only worth $30-40 million. When the market officially wakes up to this reality I hope to see a significant re-rating. It'll never be another Extract, but I think a quarter or half of Extract is realistic and fair. Just give it a few years".

Now is that a wrap for PEN, or is that a wrap for PEN!!!

Z - I would have thought that PEN has progressed since July 09 in the positive and pro-active way that most would have anticipated, so I'm finding it somewhat confusing as to why you appear to be losing the patience you told your fellow readers to have.

Why the change of heart?

Regards
Reichman

 

[jetblack]

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

I was not comming back to this thread, until two years had passed as that was when HS said he would see me.

Why the change of heart Z man?

Many think I was negative but thats their opinion and good luck to them.

Everyone talks of boxes ticked by PEN, many many many boxes to go I'm afraid.

Uranium, really isnt my thing, I've said it before that Uranium is overrated.

Dirty smelly stuff.


Gas is the energy, bigger than what U will be, imo.


Good to see you not ramping Z man. I've noticed that some have given you a hard time, but atleast your putting forward alternative views.

 

[z-trader]

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Z - I would have thought that PEN has progressed since July 09 in the positive and pro-active way that most would have anticipated, so I'm finding it somewhat confusing as to why you appear to be losing the patience you told your fellow readers to have.

Why the change of heart?

How has the progress mitigated the risks I'm talking about above? And if you look at my posting history you'll see that, while positive, I've always mentioned risk. Furthermore, you should expect my views to change as more information comes in. Back in July I wasn't aware that the Russians would continue supply after 2013 and I wouldn't have been confident that the AUD would reach parity. It might be considered an admirable quality to never change your view on an issue (hence the stupid focus on "flipflopping" in politics) but intelligent people adjust their views as more information comes in. It'd be great for once to see your journalistic style applied to checking facts about pen rather than pseudo-analysis of the writer. Writers change, moods change, facts change, context changes, time contraints to write accurately change, etc, etc. If you go looking for inconsistencies you'll find them in non-professional writing over a lengthy period. Drawing conclusions though is often pretty superficial and useless unless you're aiming at A Current Affair style sensationalism.

If you give me six lines written by the most honest man, I will find something in them to hang him. ””Cardinal Richelieu

Jetblack, same answer for you. I stated dozens of times in our exchanges that there is risk and that perhaps I have a higher tolerance of it than you do. I still disagree with the specific doubts you raised. ie CBM depleting all the water, etc. For me disagreement means I don't think the evidence you presented was compelling. Doesn't mean you couldn't turn out to be correct, just means that in my judgement the risks appear low enough to tolerate.

z-trader

 

[jetblack]

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Jetblack, same answer for you. I stated dozens of times in our exchanges that there is risk and that perhaps I have a higher tolerance of it than you do. I still disagree with the specific doubts you raised. ie CBM depleting all the water, etc. For me disagreement means I don't think the evidence you presented was compelling. Doesn't mean you couldn't turn out to be correct, just means that in my judgement the risks appear low enough to tolerate.

z-trader

Z, i still dont own any shares in the company so I have no tolerances to the stock.

Z man, forever the mincer of words and selective editing.


Its good that you have noticed the hydrological angle aswell.

I've spent too long here. I wish you well.

 

[z-trader]

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Z, i still dont own any shares in the company so I have no tolerances to the stock.

Z man, forever the mincer of words and selective editing.

Oh come on jet. I never understood this type of response from you. This pattern repeated several times between us. Surely your decision to not own shares is a reflection of you perceiving a worse risk/reward ration than me? That's all I mean. No mincing.

z-trader

 

[reichman]

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

How has the progress mitigated the risks I'm talking about above? And if you look at my posting history you'll see that, while positive, I've always mentioned risk. Furthermore, you should expect my views to change as more information comes in. Back in July I wasn't aware that the Russians would continue supply after 2013 and I wouldn't have been confident that the AUD would reach parity. It might be considered an admirable quality to never change your view on an issue (hence the stupid focus on "flipflopping" in politics) but intelligent people adjust their views as more information comes in. It'd be great for once to see your journalistic style applied to checking facts about pen rather than pseudo-analysis of the writer. Writers change, moods change, facts change, context changes, time contraints to write accurately change, etc, etc. If you go looking for inconsistencies you'll find them in non-professional writing over a lengthy period. Drawing conclusions though is often pretty superficial and useless unless you're aiming at A Current Affair style sensationalism.

If you give me six lines written by the most honest man, I will find something in them to hang him. ””Cardinal Richelieu

Jetblack, same answer for you. I stated dozens of times in our exchanges that there is risk and that perhaps I have a higher tolerance of it than you do. I still disagree with the specific doubts you raised. ie CBM depleting all the water, etc. For me disagreement means I don't think the evidence you presented was compelling. Doesn't mean you couldn't turn out to be correct, just means that in my judgement the risks appear low enough to tolerate.

z-trader

Appreciate the depth of your response Z.

Rightly or wrongly, I have PEN in my portfolio of stochs. Not wishing to speak for you, or assume something incorrectly, as I still get the strong feeling you remain a shareholder of PEN, would you be so kind as to confirm whether this is indeed still the case.

Regards
Reichman

 

[jetblack]

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Z man, because I dont own a stock doesnt mean I have more or less tolerance than you. No-one likes to lose money irrespective of the tolerance one posseses.
I'm not debating if you have a greater threshold to the price of this stock, I have no interest in your threshold.

My very opening post was that I was interested in the stock but I could see that this stock has been churned, and its been churned since the meteoric rise to about 11c back in 2006. During which time an public options issue was made and all the Directors had options to convert set at pretty high prices, but thats all fixed now since they gave performance bonus issue wipping off those il timed option converts.

You will probably see it get churned again close to the options expiry date to.

These guys are going to need more $$$ . Because ISR is cheap re extraction I dont disagree with your recent comments about the hydrological extraction, the expense is setting up.

One more thing a 3million ton processing plant is no big deal, Strathmore were commisioning a 4million ton. Why build a 2 when a 3 is just as much and sounds better.

I said this previously that I would have thought they would have announced a JV which would have been more receptive by the market.

Now I read on other forum clowns comparing it to Fortesque.

Z man we have had our talks over the past , and I really wish you well.

 

[z-trader]

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Appreciate the depth of your response Z.

Rightly or wrongly, I have PEN in my portfolio of stochs. Not wishing to speak for you, or assume something incorrectly, as I still get the strong feeling you remain a shareholder of PEN, would you be so kind as to confirm whether this is indeed still the case.

Regards
Reichman

Long with greater than 20% of my portfolio.

How about you Reichman? How much of your portfolio is in PEN today?

I'd also like to know why your inquisitorial approach isn't applied to those you've developed social relationships with over the years and/or those who write quite optimistically about PEN and seem incapable of acknowledging negatives with the same attention to detail that they address positives.

Where's the balance?

z-trader

 

[reichman]

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Z man, because I dont own a stock doesnt mean I have more or less tolerance than you. No-one likes to lose money irrespective of the tolerance one posseses.
I'm not debating if you have a greater threshold to the price of this stock, I have no interest in your threshold.

My very opening post was that I was interested in the stock but I could see that this stock has been churned, and its been churned since the meteoric rise to about 11c back in 2006. During which time an public options issue was made and all the Directors had options to convert set at pretty high prices, but thats all fixed now since they gave performance bonus issue wipping off those il timed option converts.

You will probably see it get churned again close to the options expiry date to.

These guys are going to need more $$$ . Because ISR is cheap re extraction I dont disagree with your recent comments about the hydrological extraction, the expense is setting up.

One more thing a 3million ton processing plant is no big deal, Strathmore were commisioning a 4million ton. Why build a 2 when a 3 is just as much and sounds better.

I said this previously that I would have thought they would have announced a JV which would have been more receptive by the market.

Now I read on other forum clowns comparing it to Fortesque.

Z man we have had our talks over the past , and I really wish you well.

Fair call re. the Fortesque comparison jetblack. Perhaps a little bit like Z comparing Pen to be a half of Extract. That was a big call too I s'pose.
Time will tell whether Z is proven right, or whether he winds up falling into the mouth open, move head from side to side category.

Regards
Reichman

 

[reichman]

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Long with greater than 20% of my portfolio.

How about you Reichman? How much of your portfolio is in PEN today?

I'd also like to know why your inquisitorial approach isn't applied to those you've developed social relationships with over the years and/or those who write quite optimistically about PEN and seem incapable of acknowledging negatives with the same attention to detail that they address positives.

Where's the balance?

z-trader

I have a little higher perecentage than you Z. I'm not a trader, so if things pan out, great, and if they don't, well it's money that I can afford to lose.
Re. your other query, if someone else tells me that they think PEN is a potential half Extract, only to lessen their bullishness down the track when the 250mlbs still very much appears to be there to mine, I'll probably respectfully ask them the question also. Thankyou for responding, albeit I thought, in a tad harsher tone than I would have expected.
Re. your assertion that certain people seem incapable of acknowledging negatives, you'll need to provide me with further information. I am aware of several people bullish towards PEN, but I'm yet to find someone that falls into the category to which you refer.
I have asked/questioned people previously re. other shares in the manner to which you refer. Hope that helps.
Anyway, great to know, indeed, extremely encouraging to read that you still hold 20% of your portfolio with PEN. You indicate that you are a full time trader, so knowing you have PEN as a significant part of your portfolio gives me great hope for PEN moving forward.
Best wishes
Reichman

 

[z-trader]

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

Re. your other query, if someone else tells me that they think PEN is a potential half Extract, only to lessen their bullishness down the track when the 250mlbs still very much appears to be there to mine, I'll probably respectfully ask them the question also. Thankyou for responding, albeit I thought, in a tad harsher tone than I would have expected.

I've got another question for you Reichman, if you'd be so kind to answer it:

Have you ever received an email from someone suggesting that they have information about PEN that has not yet been released to market? Information about the probable number of future announcements and/or the content of those announcements for instance?

In summary, are you willing to publicly state that you've never had access to inside information or any information that was construed as inside information by the author in correspondence with you?

z-trader

 

[reichman]

Re: PEN - Peninsula Minerals

What a very strange post Z.

No, I've never had any information that any reasonable person would construe as inside information. Why? Have you?

I have however heard about people sending intimidating emails and implying such nonsense.

Best wishes
Reichman

 

[hangseng]

Re: PEN looks ready to run

IMO Ross is unlikely to be too far from expectations considering the pilot plant in the 70s, but everyone is assuming the same certainty with Barber. Not so at all IMO, chance there'll be some jaws dropped on that one.

Then there's also the much talked about 100ppm cutoff. I'm very curious about that because the tails of roll fronts can spread out for miles and can be extremely expensive to suck out of the ground. Most pen folk have no clue about the costs of various well patterns and how severely those costs can eat into profits if spread out over a large enough area. I'm certainly going to be taking a real close look at the numbers once more info is released.
z-trader

z-trader I am interested to know why do you believe "there'll be some jaws dropped on that one" regarding Barber?

Although the tails do spread out for miles but the extraction area is at the nose of the roll fronts. This in effect draws the solution to the roll front areas. This is the key to what they are trying to achieve right now with the current drilling program. They have indicated as much that they are now targeting those areas. They won't be placing extraction equipment all along the tails as you seem to be suggesting.

They also haven't stated there will be a 100ppm cut-off, all they have stated is a mention of grades above 100ppm. That is being stated by many others but not by PEN. We won't know what they are going to indicate until the jorc is announced. Anything else is assumption and speculation at this stage.

I to await the final information regarding Jorc and especially the hydrology results and the final indicated flow rate and head grade to be used, the real measures of ISR production.

Cheers
HS