PEN - Peninsula Energy

[hangseng]

I fear if they want to push this stock down to the low 3's or 2's they will do irrepairable damage to PEN in this current market.

You may well be right Mick, in fact in the eyes of many once loyal retail holders damage has already been done....me included.

I still hold the BOT will stop once the Prime Broking agreement is finalised. IMO while this is in place with Pala shares held by UGS AB via Citi Nominees it will continue to be detrimental to the share price and shareholders.

How it can be legal is beyond me, but unfortunately it is.

 

[skyQuake]

You may well be right Mick, in fact in the eyes of many once loyal retail holders damage has already been done....me included.

I still hold the BOT will stop once the Prime Broking agreement is finalised. IMO while this is in place with Pala shares held by UGS AB via Citi Nominees it will continue to be detrimental to the share price and shareholders.

How it can be legal is beyond me, but unfortunately it is.

Its not ubs...

UBS aint the culprit here. Its not insto algobots shorting stock. In fact, its the retail crowd bailing.


Biggest seller has been Commsec this month. 6.5m shares net sold
UBS sold net 272k shares.
As for %of monthly volume, Commsec did a massive 38.8%
UBS did 0.7%

If we look at Dec, commsec net sold 8m shares
UBS net bought 90k

Its not Insto algos selling, its retail losing faith and dumping!

source: iress

if anything its a margin call

 

[reichman]

The retail crowd (to this stage anyway) haven't been selling down on 'high volume'. On the higher volume days, the SP has risen during the course of that session.

'Margin Calls' could indeed be the reason skyQuake. The bot, however, is not run by retail investors. We (the average joe share market player/investor) don't have that capability.

So, if UBS ain't the culprit - in otherwords, aren't the one's selling..... doesn't that lend itself to suggest that they, or another group with the ability to utilize a bot, are simply trying in get the SP down by selling down in very, very small parcels, occasionally getting a frustrated ma and pa investor to give up?

 

[skyQuake]

Frankly doesnt matter who is running the bot. Low volume trades usually mean nothing.

Not saying retail have been selling on 'high volume' days; just that the bulk of the selling has been by retail so far (via commsec etc)

Any fwiw, using an algo to sell stock isnt trying to manipulate the price down. If anything its to try to minimize price impact. Hitting the bid with a million shares is a lot more visible (and damaging) than selling 1000 shares every 20 seconds.

 

[Country Lad]

I find all this talk about the bots quite amusing. The issue about bot activity in any share is not whether they are active but are they in fact influencing the price.

If you look at Thursday's trading the bots had absolutely no influence. On Friday there was no activity by the bots and the price fell. Same thing Tuesday. Same thing Thurs 24th.

Don't blame the bots, the price is falling quite successfully without them.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[tech/a]

Let see.
The reasons I have seen put up on this board for a falling price or stagnancy.
In no order.

Various funds selling off.
Capital raising
Reactor melt down
Falling Uranium price.
Poor communication with investors from management
Commissioning of plant
Floods in the mine.

Now BOTS.

Yeh right!

NEXT

 

[Country Lad]

Any fwiw, using an algo to sell stock isnt trying to manipulate the price down.

Precisely, there is a real misunderstanding by most people what bots do and it is rather amusing how people talk about bots and High Frequency Trading being designed to drive the market in a certain direction. In fact, the bot is not necessarily trying to influence the price, it is testing the market direction, and if it detects a movement, it will make trades before that direction actually occurs. A definition is that:

HFT strategies utilise computers making decisions to initiate orders based on information that is received electronically, before human traders are capable of processing the information they observe.​

So the bots are not programmed to drive the market in any direction, but anticipate the direction and go with it.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[reichman]

But who runs the bots Country Lad? Not me and I daresay, not you.

If a bot is trying to find/anticipate the direction, as you believe, and go with it, 'who' is trying to find this direction? And who's to say you are right - although I do note you state that a bot is not necessarily trying to influence the price. Not necessarily means that you still accept the possibility that a bot (on any share, not just Pen), could be there to attempt to confuse the masses.

I pass no judgement/ opinion on where the SP and the company may head in the ensueing weeks and months. I am simply asking sincere questions - something that appears to be frowned upon by many of the ASF mainstays. The arrogance of many here I daresay makes many potential posters feel uncomfortable at the thought of even contemplating posting.

Anyway, hope you make money with whatever you're invested in.

regards

 

[hangseng]

Its not ubs...

I never stated UBS are the BOT, read again.

There IS a "Prime brokerage" agreement in place between UGS AB and Citi Nominees. Pala shares clearly held by Citi Nominees. Go back in my recent post on this for the direct link to the relevant announcement.

UGS AB can then do whatever they like within legal means with thise shares ("Assets" clause 8.7).

Within the latter mix I believe the source/s would be found. As this agreement doesn't require any disclosure as such, not you nor anyone else would know specifically who it is. Not unless of course you are aligned with it in some way directly or indirectly.

PEN was once available on IGmarkets as long or short, now it is only available for "closing deals". Not sure about other CFD providers. What was/is the CFD providers source of stock?

The BOT is having a field day as retail holders sell as the BOT continues the multiple $20, $30, $40, $50, $60 trades every few minutes. This is done why? Certainly not for the benefit of shareholders. And why would anyone want to hold when it is plain as day it is in place to sell the stock down. Yes it is "testing direction" created by its own actions, selling down observers see as a negative and remain out (me) or sell. Buying up seen as a positive bringing in buyers and panic selling ceases.

I agree with one thing, the stock is headed down and the algorithm trading will continue to aid it significantly. The only ones that can't see this are those without live access and those that don't want to for whatever reason.

Seemingly plenty of algorithm trading supporters here, I wonder why?

 

[CanOz]

Seemingly plenty of algorithm trading supporters here, I wonder why?

I don't think they're supporters, but some of them are or have been Prop Traders. They come with an experience in the market that 99% of us lack. They have access to information and other experienced market participants that we do not have and so i tend to believe their opinions of the algo activity. They see and it deal with it every day.

By the way...xin nin kuai le!

CanOz

 

[Country Lad]

I don't think they're supporters,

You have got that right in my case. The argument by HFTraders that it improves liquidity is a nonsense as far as I am concerned. Even though HFT does not usually affect the direction of the price, it stuffs up my algorithms and no doubt confuses many traders as well as hiding the course of the real trades.

The only reason the HFT is allowed is for those instos to make money. It should be banned.

And Xin Nian Kuai Le to you CanOz, may it be a good one.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[Country Lad]

Its not ubs...

Yep, UBS. A quick look at 3 days with HFT activity,

UBS was on the Sell side of all of them on 24 Jan;
UBS was on the Sell side of all of them on 23 Jan;
UBS was on the buy side of all of them on 21 Jan.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[skyQuake]

I never stated UBS are the BOT, read again.

There IS a "Prime brokerage" agreement in place between UGS AB and Citi Nominees. Pala shares clearly held by Citi Nominees. Go back in my recent post on this for the direct link to the relevant announcement.

UGS AB can then do whatever they like within legal means with thise shares ("Assets" clause 8.7).

Within the latter mix I believe the source/s would be found. As this agreement doesn't require any disclosure as such, not you nor anyone else would know specifically who it is. Not unless of course you are aligned with it in some way directly or indirectly.

PEN was once available on IGmarkets as long or short, now it is only available for "closing deals". Not sure about other CFD providers. What was/is the CFD providers source of stock?

The BOT is having a field day as retail holders sell as the BOT continues the multiple $20, $30, $40, $50, $60 trades every few minutes. This is done why? Certainly not for the benefit of shareholders. And why would anyone want to hold when it is plain as day it is in place to sell the stock down. Yes it is "testing direction" created by its own actions, selling down observers see as a negative and remain out (me) or sell. Buying up seen as a positive bringing in buyers and panic selling ceases.

I agree with one thing, the stock is headed down and the algorithm trading will continue to aid it significantly. The only ones that can't see this are those without live access and those that don't want to for whatever reason.

Seemingly plenty of algorithm trading supporters here, I wonder why?

In Jan, citi bought 515k shares and sold 509k
In dec citi bought and sold 332k

As with IG, they can internally hedge their positions with client longs. Since its pretty much all synthetic. When all the longs have bailed out, you can no longer short.

Back to the stock..
gap fill at 3.5 here we come

 

[hangseng]

In Jan, citi bought 515k shares and sold 509k
In dec citi bought and sold 332k

As with IG, they can internally hedge their positions with client longs. Since its pretty much all synthetic. When all the longs have bailed out, you can no longer short.

Back to the stock..
gap fill at 3.5 here we come

Yes they can, but DMA isn't synthetic. No matter you can' go long or short on IG with PEN, you can only close existing postions.

 

[dengo]

Short term Hourly chart shows a Bollinger band squeeze meaning volatility is imminent
Price has been ranging between 3.7 - 3.9c recently in a rectangle continuation pattern
Slow Stochastic is currently overbought

Measured move target is 3.5c but could hit 3.4c if the move into the pattern is repeated

 

[tech/a]

Short term Hourly chart shows a Bollinger band squeeze meaning volatility is imminent
Price has been ranging between 3.7 - 3.9c recently in a rectangle continuation pattern
Slow Stochastic is currently overbought

Measured move target is 3.5c but could hit 3.4c if the move into the pattern is repeated

View attachment 50822

Craziest analysis I've seen.
Attempting T/A on a barely liquid
Hourly chart.--- Nuts.

Bollinger band squeeze --- please
It's nothing more than a displaced M/A.
Showing a record of PAST price movement.

 

[Zubana]

There appears a continuous wish to explain all we see in the most simplistic terms....."Citi did this, they must be shorting the stock"....."CommSec clients did that, they must be bailing wholesale".

Think of this in the same way you would buying your own investment property (not that I would by the way!).
- you have a 10-15yr view; this is expected to be worth X at that point it time. You commit to that term.
- in 5-8yrs time you will review; is it worth selling now...what are the pluses and minuses?
- each month you will collect rent from your tenant, and each year end you will utilise the negative gearing and expense offsets.

So your investment property is relevant to your financial strategy at various levels, and on various timelines.

So too I believe is PEN to all the insto investors.
Fact: You don't get the quality of these instos putting money into your project if you're a joker. They can afford to be selective and do what feathers their own nests and their clients. Reality is if they can't do that then they go out of business.
Fact: They will look for the big payday at some future point in time, and in the interim they will play this so that it turns some profit. Money can't be sitting idle - there's an opportunity cost!
Fact: If you invest in PEN for a short period of time you may lose your shirt, or you may make a few multiples of your money in 12 months.

Likelihood: If you invest in PEN now and sit tight through the coming resurgence in uranium and nuclear power then you will do well in my view.

My strategy: I also don't like to sit and watch a share I bought at 5c turn into 3.5c for no obvious or good reason.
Pay attention, trade opportunistically in the short term, buy low - sell high, but stay on the bus 'cause it will all come good in due course. All IMHO.

 

[tech/a]

So in your view.

If an Insto is investing in a stock then its a sure sign that
"At sometime" this stock is going to perform?

All we need do is find institutional investment
and buy and wait.
Of course buying opportunistically.

 

[Zubana]

tech/a,
I can't imagine why an insto would invest if there was not that fundamental belief?

That said, we can't assume they would be right. It could turn out to be a dog, and on balance many stocks do so PEN would be one of their many plays in the market in an effort to manage the risk and exposure.

The tricky part here is that the insto investing in PEN is PALA, not necessarily their "nominee" Citicorp, similarly for Blackrock and theirs.

Ordinarily I'd contend that such a nominee may have only a short term objective in the stock, but if you look back to the days before the sharelending agreement between PALA and Citi, between March - May 2010 Citi increased their holding from just over 6 million shares to 90 million. Now I appreciate this was at a time that Uranium was going up rapidly, pre Fukushima, but there's no evidence they have divested that holding and I believe they are closet Uranium bulls

 

[colossus]

For what it's worth, i've had a look at the Dec 12 and Jan 13 Top 20's, there was negligible change, refer: