PDN - Paladin Energy

[goldensun76]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

I thought the U price still up by $2..... now $92.......
This is the price as at 12 Nov...... the future of the U price for Dec is trading around $110....... I think this is a good indication that the U price should continue to move upward......

 

[eMark]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

I have a re-entry bid at $7.50 to give myself a rounded 10K holding.

Well your opportunity is getting closer redrob.....

Can someone please explain to me why PDN's quarterly report for the period ending September 30th, has been released again today? It had already been released last month, maybe even earlier. Is it an update? An ammendment?

Also why is PDN suddenly drifting lower again?

 

[goldensun76]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Well..... all I can say is that I still believe the U price will continue to go up and there is nothing fundamentally wrong...... There is not much news in the quarterly report....... I got in at 7.71!!! Hopefully it will rebound soon.....

 

[Kauri]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

PDN has dropped into what I think is the normal retracement zone in E/W-fibs.. which in itself is not a buy signal for me... But I will be keeping an eye out for basing/consolidation and a change in buyers/sellers actions to hint at a recovery in the price. Just in the possibile/potential folder currently.
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[Fab]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Looks like PDN hit the high of its bollinger band and went down to the bottom so I am assuming it will bounce back now.

 

[Bush Trader]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

This one is going to be volitile for some time. Ageis slapped a sell on it this morning after comments last month that they held a positive long term view on the company. Bell Potter still have a hold rating at this stage. Other brokers info outlined below.

Cheers

BT


Paladin Still Buying In UraniumFN Arena News

- November 20 2007 Greg Peel

The same thing has happened to BHP Billiton (BHP), as problems at Olympic Dam meant the company was unable to fulfil its forward contracts and was forced to buy in uranium oxide from the spot market. It has also happened to Paladin Resources ((PDN)), which admitted back in September the company was forced to buy 250klbs of oxide to satisfy its contracts.In the case of BHP, sales contracts have been longstanding. In the case of Paladin, sales contracts would have been written within the year. This means the company failed to allow for possible ramp-up problems - the sort of problems every new venture encounters. BHP is too big a diversified miner for anyone much to notice the difference, but for little Paladin it's sitting there glowing on the bottom line. Buy-ins cost the company US$12.2m in the September quarter.And there is more to come. Paladin had indicated the buy-ins weren't finished, and there would be more to come in the December quarter. ABN Amro assumes the volume required could be as much as 35-100klbs, which would cost the company between US$1.5m and US$5m. In September Paladin was buying spot uranium at US$130/lb - almost the top of the market - and selling it into contracts at US$80/lb.

Thankfully the December quarter has brought a fall in the uranium price. Over the course of the quarter the spot uranium price fell as low as US$75/lb, although it has recently returned to US$93/lb.Adding in this anticipated loss with higher depreciation rates and higher corporate charges, ABN has reduced its FY08 profit forecast for Paladin by 22% from US$25.6m to US$19.9m. Profit forecasts for FY09-10 fall 2% on the depreciation rate. The end result is only a small change in target - from $7.84 to $7.72 - which incorporates an independent long term uranium price assumption of US$85-90/lb as provided by industry consultants TradeTech and Ux Consulting. ABN maintains a Hold rating.The risk is that further delays are experienced in Namibia, the broker says, but the upside is potential for an upgrade to reserves at either of the Namibian sites. Naturally Paladin's share price will also be influenced by movements in the uranium price either way. The TradeTech spot price has remained at US$93/lb for the third week running, and the consultants believe earlier days of extreme volatility have now abated. Buyers and sellers are becoming more wary and stubborn.

No one's said anything much about Queensland lately, where Paladin lays claim to the significant Valhalla and Skal reserves acquired via the takeover of Summit Resources. Last time we left that little debate, then premier Peter Beattie had been um-ing and ah-ing about whether or not he would lift the state's uranium mining ban. Just when we thought he had, the coal unions muscled in and the decision was reversed. Beattie had indicated he would run with federal Labor policy, but opposition leader Rudd threw the decision back to the states. So as it stands there is still a ban.However, Queensland now has a new premier (still Labor) and the federal Labor Party is looking like it will form a government next week. The impression back in April from the national Labor Party conference was that the uranium mining ban question might simply be put off to another day. The federal government has no right to force state government hands, otherwise the Coalition government would have lifted the ban across the country already. It is still unclear which way Rudd might go, and the uranium mining question has not been an election plank. Paladin also has tenements in Western Australia, but WA's premier Alan Carpenter has always adopted an "over my dead body" approach.

Paladin's share price has recently bounced from under $6 to over $8, only to be back at $7 again. The all time high is $10.80, at the height of uranium euphoria. The current average target price in the FNArena database is $7.83, on a spread of $6.40 (Macquarie, Neutral) to $9.05 (UBS, Buy). UBS remains the most bullish on the future uranium price.The B/H/S ratio is 2/2/1 from the five brokers covering the stock. GSJB Were is the Sell, with a target of $7.18 as it stands presently.

 

[voigtstr]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

So why is PDN falling to around 6.5? Is the market saying there is less opportunity for Paladin to make a profit selling uranium in the future?

 

[tronic72]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

So why is PDN falling to around 6.5? Is the market saying there is less opportunity for Paladin to make a profit selling uranium in the future?

The above article pretty much explains it. Paladin ONLY do uranium and they aren't doing a great job at the moment. Due to the fact they can't full-fill their contracts, they are having to purchase high priced uranium from the Market which is eating into their bottom line big time.

Their share price was pushed to artificially high prices "at the eight of uranium euphoria" as explained above. I think their current price is not far off the mark given their lack of diversification.

Bottom line; Paladin needs to prove it's self.

 

[voigtstr]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

So if 6.50 or thereabouts is fair value for its current situation, the situation should be better when Namibia is up to speed, and even better again when Kayelekera is brought on line?

 

[56gsa]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

chartwise PDN looks to be coming to an interesting point ...

on the weekly we see the downtrend is being touched from above - if this doesn't provide support we could see $5.50 tested?

and the daily looks almost H&Sish (although volume doesn't fit too well with that pattern) - following from the reverse H&S - so 2 necklines in play?

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

just for the record
here's PDN for the last 2 years (High Low Close) + averages
Also PDN vs XAO for last 12 months (candlestix) + ditto (percent indicates relative preformance campared to datum of XAO)

PS I plan to do this to a few stocks - please feel free to either
a) help out and divvy the job up between a few of us
b) suggest amendments to graphs
c) request some stocks you'd like me to post (maybe PM me)
d) tell me it's not necessary lol (or too wasteful of memory maybe?)

 

[Kauri]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Just spending a few spare lazy minutes scrolling through my charts... seems PDN is getting interesting.... again
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Black Range]

Deutsche Bank analysts target price of $8.25 for PDN

Hot of the press from Todays Sydney Morning Herald.

Paladin now able to look for some bargains
January 15th, 2008


THE uranium producer Paladin Energy is expected to resume its focus on acquisitions now that it has overcome production issues at its brand new Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia.

The mine, one of the first of a new breed of uranium mines since a recent increase in the price of the nuclear fuel, was unable to meet its original production forecast last year after a failure of its leach tank liners.

"We were in suspension [as a company]," said the managing director of Paladin, John Borshoff. "We couldn't do other things until we got our credibility back and our performance where we said we would be."

Paladin yesterday said it had met its second-half production target of 295 tonnes of uranium from Langer Heinrich.

The mine's production is expected to reach its nameplate capacity of 1179 tonnes this year before a planned expansion to 1678 tonnes.

Mr Borshoff said the board expected to approve the $US40 million ($44.7 million) to $US50 million expansion next month and to complete construction by the end of the year.

"When you look at the guidance of all the uranium companies around the world today, Paladin is one of the few that is maintaining its guidance for 2008," he said. "I think that's a tremendous achievement."

The construction of Paladin's second mine, Kayelekera in Malawi, should be completed by the end of the year. Mr Borshoff said Paladin should produce about 1723 tonnes of uranium from the two mines next year, rising to 2267 tonnes in 2010.

The company, which last year bought the Queensland uranium explorer Summit Resources, has renewed its focus on acquisitions after working through the teething problems at Langer Heinrich.

Since the uranium spot price has fallen from last year's record high of $US138 a pound, the value of many uranium stocks has dived. Mr Borshoff said the drop in the uranium price to its current level of $US90 a pound was "not one iota" of a concern, with the projected strong demand for nuclear power. But the fall in the share prices of uranium companies may help Paladin further its ambitions of buying more projects, particularly in North America.

On Friday Deutsche Bank analysts deemed Paladin their "preferred pick" within the uranium sector with an $8.25 target price.

The analysts said: "We forecast strong earnings growth from the company's stated production guidance and recognise that further upside opportunities are available to the company via production expansions at both Langer Heinrich and Kayelekera."

Overnight on the TSX PDN Closed Up 31c To $5.80 Can. $6.338 Aus. ************* UP 5.65%

With Robert Healy as The major Shareholder of Black Range Minerals & Paladin Energy, Don't disregard BLR as a Bargain Priced target for PDN, BLRs Current Inferred Taylor Ranch Resources now stand at 80 Mill P/Lbs and Building, and yes its in Nth America.

Cheers from grant64

P.S For Day Traders This Trading Tool Is A Must Have.
http://www.turbotrader.net.au/
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[tronic72]

Re: Deutsche Bank analysts target price of $8.25 for PDN

That's great news. I picked up 10000 CFDs yesterday at 595. Fingers crossed we'll have an up day as the DOW and NASDAQ both finished in positive territory early this morning. Unfortunately, anyone who's been in the market since November last year knows that doesn't mean anything at the moment.

:

 

[Black Range]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

PDN Holders, don't disregard the likes of a small Cap Company by the name of Black Range Minerals.

As noted in recent PDN Media report PDN are currently looking at opportunities within North America, and I suggest the likes of BLR & WHE fit the Buying credentials

As you would know Robert Healy is a major Shareholder of BLR, as he is with PDN & DYL, and with a Inferred 72 Resource of over 80 Mill P/lbs at Taylor Ranch, and a Current small Market Cap of just $72 Mill., one would feel there is a good opportunity to take advantage, with the aid of Healys Major 12% Stake of BLR, and also Zac Rossi, who's also one of the major Shareholders of DYL.

Cheers from grant64

My Current Long Term U3O8 Holdings are PDN AGS DYL BLR & The Mega uranium J/Ved SNU The rest are Day Traded.

 

[pingkie_o]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

I think similar to Summit resources takeover (to gain control of Mt. Isa)...PDN will takeover EME (to gain control of Birqli)

Opinion anyone?

 

[Black Range]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Pingkie I think you have hit the nail on the head, & we may very well find out soon

Cheers from grant64

 

[tronic72]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Recently read this at:

http://www.uranium-stocks.net/uranium-too-calm-for-comfort/

Uranium: Too Calm for Comfort!
Topic: Uranium ”” January 17th, 2008


At a time when oil appears to be grabbing all the headlines in the energy sector as it flirts with the $100/barrel level, uranium lazes in the corner like a dog who’s lost interest in going for a walk. Here we are in a commodities boom that some call a super cycle and the worlds future major player in energy adopts the roll of observer. True the price of uranium is still hovering around the $90/lb level which is more then enough for the quality uranium stocks to turn a decent profit. What surprises us is the lack of activity in the spot market for uranium.

“A few sellers continue to seek buyers” a quote from Tradetechs recent report. Down here in New Zealand we are having a heat wave but the weather patterns for the northern hemisphere appear to be fairly cold and wet thus the demand for heating and therefore electricity should be reasonably constant. So it raises the question of just where have all the buyers gone? Uranium was $138/lb at one point and then it fell to below $80/lb and has since drifted up to today’s spot price of $90/lb. Over on the futures market the range is from $88/lb to $94/lb which is fairly steady. This is either an interesting game of bluff or the utility companies actually have enough uranium to keep them operational for some time to come, hence their reluctance to be aggressive in their pursuance of supplies. Either way the effect on uranium stocks is to leave them languishing on the sidelines. Performance is about comparison and compared to gold and silver who’s associated stocks are generating terrific returns this sector lags behind. Its times like these that really test our resolve, why not cross the road and join their party? Its tempting isn’t it? Well the fundamentals in our view, are still in place, we don’t read about too many nuclear projects being cancelled do we!

We conclude that we are holding all of our uranium stocks and should a real bargain present itself we will buy again. This strategy is not for everyone and may not suit you, after all you are an individual and your circumstances are unique to you. Putting technical analysis and fundamental analysis to one side we are left with that old intangible ‘gut feel’ and it is said that fortune favours the brave so if you have balls of steel look to buy quality uranium stocks real soon.

Have a good one.

 

[kevosero]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Found a little positive today....

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=99D0995C-1871-E587-E11A1F9FED39CC19


Following a review on the sector Citi has taken a bullish outlook on uranium given the increase in global nuclear power capacity and green house gas emission concerns, the broker initiating coverage on both Energy Resources of Australia (ERA) and Paladin ((PDN)) with Buy ratings.

For the industry as a whole the broker suggests the increased capacity can mean only an increase in demand for uranium going forward, which should prove supportive for prices. When constrained supply, depleted inventory levels and fund buying is added to the mix the picture being painted seems to be one of higher prices in coming years.

As a result Citi expects uranium prices to again push through the US$100 per pound level this year and in 2009, after having run as high as US$138 per pound in 2007 before sliding back to well below the US$100 per pound level.

Both the major Australian uranium producing stocks are seen as well placed to benefit from this strengthening in prices as production is set to increase for both companies, ERA to an expected 6,000 tonnes this year from a rain-affected 5,400 tonnes last year and Paladin as Langer Heinrich gears up to full production levels.

Additionally in Paladin’s case there is a second mine, Kayelekera, due to commence production in 2009, along with a number of advanced projects in Australia where production remains possible assuming current government restrictions on uranium mining are amended.

A positive factor for both companies is decent leverage to the uranium price, in the case of ERA as existing contracts expire and are renegotiated at prices closer to current spot levels rather than at an average of about US$20 per pound as has been the case.

Paladin benefits from having few legacy contracts, meaning it already is well placed to benefit from stronger spot prices at the same time as it boosts output, Citi expecting 2009 production for the company to be in the order of 1,700 tonnes against an expected 1,180 tonnes this year.

This flows through into a solid earnings growth outlook for both companies, the broker forecasting EPS (earnings per share) for ERA to increase from the 22.9c recorded in 2006 to 42c for the 2007 year, 67.2c in 2008 and 152.3c in 2009.

With the company having little debt and with cash flows strengthening the broker sees scope for shareholders to be rewarded via increased returns, with capital management a possibility given dividends are expected to remain modest.

For Paladin the broker is forecasting EPS in US dollar terms of 6c per share in 2008 and 22c in 2009, which compares with a loss of 7.6c per share in 2006. With the development of Kayelekera continuing little is expected in the way of dividends over the next couple of years.

Apart from stronger spot prices there is some valuation upside in both stocks from exploration success in the broker’s view, as in the case of ERA it points out while mining at Ranger is currently expected to continue until 2012 this is likely to be extended to at least 2016 and maybe through 2020 if an underground mine is approved or further reserves are proved up. The Jabiluka asset also offers some upside for the company in coming years.

Paladin offers a similar story as the Langer Heinrich operation has a current mine life of around 10 years but there remains significant exploration potential in surrounding areas, while recent acquisitions by the company suggest it remains in expansion mode. The broker also points out the stock is a possible target within the sector given further consolidation among uranium players globally can be expected in coming years.

In terms of relative pricing ERA appears the cheaper of the two at present given its legacy contracts, while the broker’s valuations for the two stocks stand at $19.60 for ERA and $5.90 for Paladin.

Using this as a base the broker has set price targets of $26.00 and $7.70 respectively on the two companies, while the FNArena database shows average price targets of $23.66 and $7.80.

Citi’s coverage of the sector comes at a time of increased interest in the sector as ERA has recently been upgraded to Buy from Neutral by UBS and to Accumulate from Hold by Aspect Huntley. Overall ERA is rated as Buy five times, Accumulate once and Hold twice, while Paladin scores three Buy and three Hold ratings.

Shares in both stocks are weaker this morning in line with the broader market and as at 11.40am ERA was trading down 59c at $19.91 and Paladin was down 34c at $5.05.

 

[DionM]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

So much for targets and broker advice eh.

PDN now sub $4 after massive slide today.


Then again, PDN has always been pretty volatile in price ...