PDN - Paladin Energy

[drmb]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Will have to wait til next year according to article:-

URANIUM MARKETS & STOCKS
Uranium prices, and stocks, bleed again
The uranium spot price has now declined by $31/pound in just 7 weeks; stocks are down by some 40%.

Author: Barry Sergeant
Posted: Tuesday , 14 Aug 2007

JOHANNESBURG -

The uranium spot price fell $5/pound in the past week, to $105/pound, according to Ux Consultants, and by $15/pound according to TradeTech, also to $105/pound. The uranium spot price has now declined $31/pound in just seven weeks, leaving a trail of bloodied stocks in its wake.

Listed uranium stocks have declined by a rough average of 40% in the past two months. Cameco (CCO.T, C$15.99 a share), the market leader, is down just over 30%. The stock price for Paladin (PDN.AX, A$3.66) has fallen by 45%, while losses for developers have been far more severe; Forsys (FSY.T, C$0.35), for example, is off by 60%.

According to a market roundup by analysts at RBC Capital Markets, Ux has highlighted where the market stands in terms of production at mid-year, compared to forecasts; annual production is now expected to be 112m pounds, down from 117m pounds previously. Technical difficulties and delays were responsible for the majority of lower production volumes in the first half of 2007.

While the price decline was smaller this week compared to prior weeks, Ux cautions that this does not indicate that the market is near bottom. Ux believes that current weakness in the spot price is due to illiquidity in the current market. Looking forward, Ux forecasts that the price is very vulnerable to continued weakness, with "small" demand being met by motivated sellers.

Ux and TradeTech have both maintained long-term price forecasts at $95/pound. RBCCM believes that the uranium market "will be weak until late-September to early-October, trading sideways to down with support at the $95-100/pound level". The analysts believe that the spot market could return to a deficit in the first half of 2008, "which should result in a strengthening spot market".

 

[philby3]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Early morning trade:

Paladin Resources Limited (PDN)
Date Time Price ($) Quantity Value ($) Conditions
16-08-2007 09:09 AM $5.900 70000 $413,000.000 Overseas Trade,Crossed
16-08-2007 08:18 AM $5.694 1100000 $6,263,400.000 Late Trade,Crossed

 

[eMark]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Another Rambling Comment - Why not? after today

It feels like the rest of the market is finally playing catch up with PDN's % drop the past few weeks. Fairs fair, feels like a more even playing field now.

 

[Bush Trader]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Another Rambling Comment - Why not? after today

.

Be patient grasshopper. Wait for the dust to wash of the weeds before you spray them. Now that a rambling comment!

 

[voigtstr]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Greetings.

I'm interested in buying some PDN at some stage over the next few weeks, but am trying to determine an appropriate buy signal. It looks like there is a bit of a bollinger squeeze going on, but who's to say the stock wont be breaking downwards rather than upwards. Any tips for newbie please?

Cheers
the voigtstr

 

[rogue_investor]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Uranium stocks are tracking lower with the uranium spot price. We're at a level now in line with many price forecasts so it should become more about company performance rather than spot price from here.

PDN turned in quite a hefty loss for the last financial year but according to the CEO today on ABC's Inside Business they have turned the corner on the Namibia plant and will be producing in 2008.

Given the company's position as an Aussie leader and the recent govt deals with India and Russia, you would have to think the company is in a strong position.

If the market remains buoyant I wouldn't expect the share price to take much of a downturn over the medium term. We are still a way off the $10 highs but if uranium reaches the $138/lb mark again (as PDN CEO expects it will) then that share price would be cheap for a major supplier.

 

[voigtstr]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Thanks Rogue,
which companies are also taking uranium out of the ground already...................?

 

[chansw]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Uranium oversupply not expected

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,22391542-14334,00.html

PALADIN Resources says it does not expect an over supply of uranium to come on to the market, after the US President George W Bush expressed his pro-nuclear stance last week.

John Borshoff, the chief executive of Paladin (ppx.ASX:Quote,News), said yesterday there was “definitely not'' an over-supply of uranium about to saturate the market despite a recent fall in its price.

He told ABC TV the increase in uranium price would continue on its upward path.

“I think the dynamic of the volatility is a five-year, almost continuous rise,'' he said.

“I foresee it will surpass the peaks within 12 to 15 months.''

In the last three years, there had only been a 5 per cent increase in overall production of uranium, and in the next three years, there would be few uranium mines coming on board, he said.

It comes after the Mr Bush last week expressed his stance as pro-nuclear, saying if one cared about greenhouse gases that they would be in favour of nuclear power.

Mr Borshoff said it had taken a long time for the US to become clearly pro-nuclear.

“After Three-Mile Island and Chernobyl, the whole US nuclear industry just retracted,'' he said.

“The industry at large always said that if only the US would indicate to grow it's industry it would be certainly two swallows make spring.

“It's basically a declaration that all world economies are fully supportive of (uranium).''

Paladin purchased some reserves in Queensland via the $1.16 billion takeover of Summit resources, saying it was “certain'' it would be mining uranium out of Australia.

“As sure as today is Sunday, we will be mining uranium out of Australia, out of the states of Queensland and Western Australia,'' he said.

“It is one of those inevitabilities that you cannot have a whole world starving in the biggest, hugest energy crisis that's ever faced civilization, and we're exporting as much coal and gas as one likes and then making some statement about uranium when the federal Labor is saying that this has to stop.

“I think it's just a matter of time and a bit of sense coming back into the system.''

Mr Borshoff also commented on the company's share price, saying it would bounce and respond to any threat from predators.

“We believe there is an opportunity to come out of this huge vacuum that was caused where essentially the industry was asleep at the wheel for 20 years, and if Paladin does get absorbed into somebody else, I think it would be a shame for the supply industry,'' he said.

In connection to future acquisitions, he said, the company had always specified it wanted a more global footprint.

“That is in keeping with our whole strategy that we will probably postpone for a little while.

“But we are always on the lookout for opportunities, particularly how we see the market and I don't believe the market will be in supply balance for 10 to 20 years.''

The company's Heinrich mine in Nambia had suffered some bad luck on vital pieces of equipment, sparking a five-month delay, but was on track to be at full production next year.

“We believe we will be at full production early 2008 and, essentially, we aren't that worried in terms of mid-term.''

 

[alankew]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

What going on with this today,up 40c or so at the moment.My own personal feeling is that U stocks seem to be coming back into play.Also possible that someone is lining this up but volume is pretty normal

 

[ands]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Maybe everyone is dumping Marathon Resources after their Mt Gee resource downgrade, and are coming to a real Uranium Company in the name of Paladin Resources!

 

[rogue_investor]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Thanks Rogue,
which companies are also taking uranium out of the ground already...................?

Difficult to get all details but there aren't many. 40% of the world's supply came from Cameco, BHP, RIO & ERA last year. Uranuim One (unlisted) also a major player.. who knows what could happen there.

Getting ura out of the ground is not a mugs game from what I read and many of the explorers are bandwagoners.

PDN up 10% in the last week or so and I don't think it will end there. Spot price stable and 2008 just around the corner when the bucks start rolling in.

 

[Kauri]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

It may not be the best set-up going around but is the way I am trading PDN at the moment...
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[voigtstr]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Took the plunge on pdn for about $1200 worth. (I'll save up more for investing on blue chips (2-3k$ parcels))

Be interesting to see if the shares take off next year when they are actually mining!

 

[rederob]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Be interesting to see if the shares take off next year when they are actually mining!

Ummmm....
They have been mining most of this year.
I hope your buying strategy is better than your understanding of the companies you buy.

 

[voigtstr]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

I meant when the new mine starts production that they are ramping up for in early 2008 (the one that got delayed)(it starts with K and my mind refuses to hold the letters, and form them into a pronounable name)

 

[Kauri]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Have closed out the short-term portion of this trade, leaving the long -term portion free-carried plus.... the strong selling yesterday and again-so far today- doesn't inspire me....
Cheers
........Kauri

 

[shag]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Have closed out the short-term portion of this trade, leaving the long -term portion free-carried plus.... the strong selling yesterday and again-so far today- doesn't inspire me....
Cheers
........Kauri

whats wrong with today kauri? low volume or what
how can u tell strong selling, surely it takes buyers and sellers
sorry to ask questions, just want to leasrn basics on tech trading
cheers shag

 

[rogue_investor]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Ummmm....
They have been mining most of this year.
I hope your buying strategy is better than your understanding of the companies you buy.

redenob, which mines have they been mining all year, for what contracts and at what price?? this would help but who knows?

 

[voigtstr]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

the fat prophets weekly teaser email mentions this:

A High Quality Uranium Situation
• Fat Prophets Members will be aware that we have been very careful with our uranium recommendations. Despite there being dozens of uranium hopefuls quoted on the Australian Stock Exchange, we have recommended only three, one of which was Paladin Resources.
• We maintain our position that investment in high-quality uranium situations will provide much higher returns for Members than riskier companies.
• We recently had the opportunity to travel all the way to Namibia to kick the tyres of one of our other favourite uranium companies. It's this sort of level of research, time, dedication, experience and expertise that we think will ultimately help us pick the uranium winners of today and tomorrow.
• Here are some of the things we learnt from our trip to Namibia and our favoured uranium stock…
o We were able to gain an even better appreciation of their flagship uranium project's enormous resource potential, and a clear understanding of how the company intends to develop the deposit.
o We came away with a better understanding of Namibia. The country is safe from a personal security point of view and secure from a sovereign risk and tenure perspective. In fact, it ranks above Australia in terms of the most secure international destinations for investment.
o On our site visit we saw the current drilling program in action and met with and spoke to the company's Managing Director, who confirmed everything was on schedule.
o In summary, we came away tremendously impressed with the quality of the company's exploration work so far, and a true perspective of the sheer enormity of the resource potential of its uranium deposit.
• The share price is down 47% from its recent high, yet Fat Prophets Members who bought the shares when we first recommended them will still be sitting on a very impressive 193% profit.
• But we think that's only the beginning, and only two weeks ago we told Members we are monitoring the stock closely in the coming weeks for an appropriate buying opportunity. With the shares falling 5% on Monday alone, it looks like that opportunity may be coming sooner rather than later.
Sign up today to find out the name of this Namibian uranium miner, and to get access to the 20 or more current buy recommendations in the Fat Prophets Australasian AND Fat Prophets Mining & Resource Reports. I understand I'll get an instant discount of $200, AND get a total of 6 months extra absolutely FREE.
Start Now

Does anyone know which company they are talking about? (without charging me $1190 to find out)

 

[Sean K]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

the fat prophets weekly teaser email mentions this:

Does anyone know which company they are talking about? (without charging me $1190 to find out)

BMN. I'm happy for a $100 fee for that information voigtstr. Send cheque to the 'buy kennas a yacht fund', C/- ASF. Cheers!