PDN - Paladin Energy

[goldensun76]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Well, I think it can rebound all the way back to $7 it will be very interesting to watch. I hope this short term bull run will not end around $6.5

 

[hatrader]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Hi all,

I'm curious about PDN's quiet involvement with DYL which has been quietly building over the last year....isn't Gillian Swaby the secretary of PDN? and also a director of DYL....something is cooking for the future.

Any thoughts?

 

[eMark]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

I do not want to jinx myself to early, but PDN appears to holding up quite well considering the black clouds that are hovering over the market today. My guess is that PDN has been beaten into submission so much, that it's already been dealt the massive blows that a lot of other stocks are now experiencing.

I don't care if the stock drops 20-30c. It's a relief that it didn't plunge back into the mid $5 range today, which I was expecting. The day is not over yet though.....

I hold the stock at a much higher price than it's current SP.

 

[exgeo]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

I think most of the weak longs have been shaken out of the uranium stocks now. I notice that the larger ones such as PDN, SMM and MTN have buy/sell ratios of 1:2 compared to 1:10 in recent days. They have also failed to set new lows, despite the market turmoil.

 

[eMark]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

I do not want to jinx myself to early, but PDN appears to holding up quite well considering the black clouds that are hovering over the market today. My guess is that PDN has been beaten into submission so much, that it's already been dealt the massive blows that a lot of other stocks are now experiencing.

I don't care if the stock drops 20-30c. It's a relief that it didn't plunge back into the mid $5 range today, which I was expecting. The day is not over yet though.....

I hold the stock at a much higher price than it's current SP.

Phew! For what it's worth. It held up again in Canada.

PDN.TO

Last Trade: 5.53
Trade Time: Aug 10
Change: 0.00 (0.00%)
Prev Close: 5.53
Open: 5.42
Bid: 5.53
Ask: 5.54
Day's Range: 5.31 - 5.60
Volume: 1,912,524
Avg Vol (3m): 3,344,450

 

[Bush Trader]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Appears to be very quiet on this thread today, is everyone feeling OK.

I thought I would post this, which is an extract from the AEGIS research report I was sent today. It may ot may not help those of you that are feeling the pressure


Cheers


BT

PS: TradeTech revised weekly spot U308 price down $15 to US$105/lb, one futures contract for the week 50,000 lbs @ US$105. There are market commentators aplenty predicting US$80/lb short term for the metal.


Paladin Resources
Removal of 30% premium, but we remain
positive on Australian assets


Event
A 30% premium was attached to PDN's valuation (refer to "Initiating
coverage: Let them eat yellowcake!", released on 21/3/07) for a variety
of reasons, including (1) industry consolidation; (2) the company's
dominant Australian market position and its ability to take over
advanced exploration uranium companies; and (3) the material benefit
to PDN if it succeeded in taking over Summit Resources (SMM).
Subsequently, we believe that the market has now valued PDN's
takeover of SMM, and although we think that further industry
consolidation is likely, there is nothing that is immediately apparent.
Likewise, we believe that PDN's market position is being constrained
by various state governments. Hence, we no longer see this premium
as necessary to reflect the company's market value.

Implications
PDN is a single commodity focus company, which leaves it susceptible
to uranium price fluctuations. Negative sentiment has been created by
the decline in the spot uranium price, currently US$110/lb U3O8. We
would, however, expect a significant re re-rating of the company if, and
when, various Australian state governments allow the re re-
commencement of uranium mining within their territories and/or if there
was a bid for PDN by Areva. As a result of removing the 30% discount
and updating PDN's holdings in Bigrlyi, Summit Resources and Deep
Yellow, we have lowered our 12- month target by 22% to $7.68 per
share. We maintain our BUY recommendation.

Investment Opinion
Economic emergence of China and India means that global energy
consumption will grow around 2% per annum till 2030. Increased
volumes of greenhouse gasses from fossil fuels are providing the
political impetus to support nuclear power as the only viable alternative
that has zero emissions. We expect a number of new reactors to be
ordered this decade. Long lead times in bringing on primary supply and
rapidly depleting secondary stocks mean that PDN will be strongly
supported in the long term.
PDN has commissioned the Langer Heinrich uranium deposit in
Namibia and has gained approval to commence construction of the
Kayelekera uranium deposit in Malawi. The company also has four
other deposits in Australia awaiting state government approval. We
believe that PDN is a solid entry option for those who want to invest in
the high-risk uranium sector.


Paladin's Australian Resources
Although PDN has a number of advanced uranium projects in Australia, mining of uranium currently occurs only at existing
mines in the Northern Territory (under Federal jurisdiction) and South Australia. State governments in Western Australia and
Queensland have publicly voiced opposition to uranium mining in their jurisdictions. We believe that this will change, and PDN is
the best- placed Australian uranium company to take advantage of this when it occurs. Many of the personnel have significant
experience in the area of uranium exploration, mining and metallurgy. This is a very important asset, as there has been a two- twodecade
uranium depression and many industry people have since retired. Globally, there is a skills expertise shortage, which
decade will take many years to rectify.
We would expect a significant re- rating of PDN if, and when, various Australian state governments allow the commencement of
uranium mining within their territories. Besides PDN's more publicised uranium projects in Namibia (Langer Heinrich) and
Malawi (Kayelekera), it also has a number of key Australian uranium projects that would, if and when they enter into production,
have a material impact on the company's NPV.

 

[redandgreen]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

much appreciated Bush Trader

I, like many others, am really feeling the heat on some of my U investments atm.

Wondering whether I should top up......hard to know when this sell-off will end.

 

[goldensun76]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

I guess the important trigger to make the price go up is the U spot price. At this stage the sentiment is too low..... I guess we will need to see a U spot price go back into upward trend before we can see a reverse of PDN price.

 

[rostov]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

I guess the important trigger to make the price go up is the U spot price.

....

At this stage the sentiment is too low..... I guess we will need to see a U spot price go back into upward trend before we can see a reverse of PDN price.

UxC subscription this morning reveals U308 spot price now US$105, less by US$5 compared to last week. (Note : this will be updated around 72 hours after release to subscribers, as per my last post). Volume this week is 0, with still the same 2 sellers (1x non US seller, 1x DOE) with no buyers biting. That makes 6 weeks of nearly 0 pounds of U305 (well, about 50,000lbs? enough?) at spot prices.

I wrote it this morning elsewhere:

Very little demand and determined sellers. huge drop in price from US$136 from seven weeks ago still has not generated new interest in buying until buyers are convinced price drop has hit support.

Term activity is moderate, physical forwards market still slow. Only the futures market activity has picked up. Open interest end of last week = 224 contracts, this week new contracts = 158. Settlement prices / Period:

* $109. Dec 07
* $99. Jan - Mar 08
* $103. Apr - Jun 08
* $111. Jul - Dec 08

Volume for closed (confirmed) contracts mostly in the Dec 2007 of $109. Only 1 closed contract in Jan (1 out of 42) at $99. All other months all contracts open.

Production all around the world has been suffering (PDN, Uranium One, Rio, Areva, Cameco, ERA, BHP), and with little buying demand.....

Interestingly projected 2007 worldwide production came up. Region / U308 (millions) 2006 / U308 07 / % change:

* Africa / 18.3 / 19.9 / 9.0%
* Australia / 19.7 / 22.2 / 12.7%
* Canada / 25.6 / 25.6 / -0.1%
* Kazakhstan / 13.7 / 18.0 / 31.4%
* Russia / 9.0 / 9.4 / 4.0%
* USA / 4.4 / 4.5 / 2.3%
* Uzbekistan / 5.9 / 6.0 / 2.0%
* Other / 6.4 / 6.5 / 0.5%
* Total / 103.1 / 112.1 / 8.8%.

(Opinion) Long term fundamentals here folks. Don't think it's wise for CFD or margin trading here. DYOR thanks.

Season or not, the price pressure downwards is one factor. Production being lower than expected all around the world (not much) but still substantially short of long term demand is another YET where's the current short / medium term demand? The futures are more exciting, but their closing prices have had a 1 (out of 42) contract done at US$99.

This will really put away a lot of short/daily termers and put long term holders to the test.

 

[Gundini]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Thanks Kauri. Starting to look a little bit more realistic to me too, but oooooo, there's some panicky punters out there. If it manages $5.50 I won't be able to help myself.

Well I couldn't help myself at $5.50, just seems very reasonable for a long term entry. If it gets to $5.33, I'll pick up the other half of my parcel...

 

[Kauri]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

With todays price action (not on my charts yet) she seems to be approaching the typical W(2) area, but by my E/W it could still fall to around the $4 region.. ..
Cheers
....Kauri

 

[Gundini]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

With todays price action (not on my charts yet) she seems to be approaching the typical W(2) area, but by my E/W it could still fall to around the $4 region.. ..
Cheers
....Kauri

The Daily chart definately suggests $4 is not out of the question, although this price is rediculous considering the price of Uranium, the demand for Uranium, and PDN Uranium making machine.

If Areva doesn't snap up PDN with SMM at $4, I'll do a nudie run across the Harbour Bridge!

Having said that, I'm gunna unpack the ute and make some room for my $4 PDN stock...

 

[CanOz]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

The Daily chart definately suggests $4 is not out of the question, although this price is rediculous considering the price of Uranium, the demand for Uranium, and PDN Uranium making machine.

If Areva doesn't snap up PDN with SMM at $4, I'll do a nudie run across the Harbour Bridge!

Having said that, I'm gunna unpack the ute and make some room for my $4 PDN stock...

I'm no expert here, but given the credit crunch, why would anyone expect any large takeovers to happen?

Cheers,

 

[Gundini]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

I'm no expert here, but given the credit crunch, why would anyone expect any large takeovers to happen?

Cheers,

Why?

Areva has a market cap of 20 Billion Euro's.

Each share trades at 694 Euro.

Areva is the worlds leading company in nuclear energy. It is the only company with a presence in each industrial activity linked to nuclear energy: mining, chemistry, enrichment, combustibles, services, engineering, nuclear propulsion and reactors, treatment, recycling, stabilization, and dismantling. Areva offers technological solutions for CO2 free energy.

Worldwide, the Areva group has an industrial presence in 40 countries and its commercial network reaches more than 100 countries. It employs 58,000 people for a consolidated sales revenue of €10.863 billion.[2] In 2006, Fortune Magazine reported that Areva was the Most Admired Global Energy Company.[3]

In the USA, Areva is present in 40 locations across 20 states and employs 5,000 people. Areva supplies network products to two-thirds of all US utilities. Moreover, Areva was ranked No 1 US supplier in nuclear energy products and services, in Energy Management Systems and in Energy Market Systems.

In June 2007, Areva announced plans to acquire the African Uranium mining company UraMin for a final price of about 2.5 billion USD. This move further beefs up Areva's nuclear business, and Areva plans to increase production to 9 million tons of Yellowcake by 2012.

Press release:
July 31, 2007
Areva website

Successful takeover bid of AREVA over UraMin

AREVA announces it has taken over control of the mining company UraMin. At the expiry of the friendly offer launched on June 25, 2007 the shares tendered to its offer allow AREVA to hold approximately 92.93% of the UraMin share capital*.

AREVA's offer (US$7.75 per UraMin share) values UraMin at more than US$2.5 billion for 100% of its share capital*.

The deposits identified by UraMin in South Africa, Namibia and the Central African Republic should result in an annual production of more than 7,000 tons of uranium after 2012. The commissioning of these projects will also enable AREVA to further diversify its production resources to secure its customers' uranium supplies over the long-term.

AREVA intends to integrate UraMin as quickly as possible in order to optimise synergies with its existing mining activities and allow the company to develop its full potential.

For Anne Lauvergeon, CEO of AREVA: “the integration of UraMin into AREVA's Mining business unit constitutes a major step in the group's ambitious plan to increase its uranium production. It further strengthens the ability of AREVA to provide its customers with long-term secured uranium supplies as part of innovative commercial offers covering the entire nuclear cycle.”

The money Areva paid for UraMin company is roughly the same as PDN's market cap. Take $1.50 per share off the current PDN price would equate to a very reasonable value pick up at $4 AUD per share.

Considering Areva's ambitious plans to increase uranium production, and PDN, together with SMM resources, I would think it only reasonable that a cash cow/cashed up company like Areva would have their sights firmly set in the direction of PDN. Areva already owns 10% of SMM...

 

[Bush Trader]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

I'm no expert here, but given the credit crunch, why would anyone expect any large takeovers to happen?

Cheers,

I agree wholely, nobody will be game to talk M&A till the level of the "credit crisis" is fully apparent. Especially with the fact that U308 market commentators are predicting US$80/lb in the short term. I think we will see further shake outs. I would have thought at $5.50 those bargain hunters that bought in on the 2nd recovery above $6.00 would be "stopping out" 8% plus. I'm still in at 8.15 and that not 8:15am unfortunately. I havn't sold anything yet, nor purchased either. How long before this stock has it's leverage % reduced on the margin lending lists?

Good luck to all punters

Cheers


BT

 

[eMark]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

What do you think would be a fair and reasonable price for PDN shares if it beacme the target of a takeover? Keeping in mind a few weeks ago when there were rumours flying around, the stock shot up from $8.20 to $8.88 (when yours truly got caught up the moment)

How do you work it out when the stock is dropping in big clumps in todays climate?

Why?

Areva has a market cap of 20 Billion Euro's.

Each share trades at 694 Euro.

Areva is the worlds leading company in nuclear energy. It is the only company with a presence in each industrial activity linked to nuclear energy: mining, chemistry, enrichment, combustibles, services, engineering, nuclear propulsion and reactors, treatment, recycling, stabilization, and dismantling. Areva offers technological solutions for CO2 free energy.

Worldwide, the Areva group has an industrial presence in 40 countries and its commercial network reaches more than 100 countries. It employs 58,000 people for a consolidated sales revenue of €10.863 billion.[2] In 2006, Fortune Magazine reported that Areva was the Most Admired Global Energy Company.[3]

In the USA, Areva is present in 40 locations across 20 states and employs 5,000 people. Areva supplies network products to two-thirds of all US utilities. Moreover, Areva was ranked No 1 US supplier in nuclear energy products and services, in Energy Management Systems and in Energy Market Systems.

In June 2007, Areva announced plans to acquire the African Uranium mining company UraMin for a final price of about 2.5 billion USD. This move further beefs up Areva's nuclear business, and Areva plans to increase production to 9 million tons of Yellowcake by 2012.

Press release:
July 31, 2007
Areva website

Successful takeover bid of AREVA over UraMin

AREVA announces it has taken over control of the mining company UraMin. At the expiry of the friendly offer launched on June 25, 2007 the shares tendered to its offer allow AREVA to hold approximately 92.93% of the UraMin share capital*.

AREVA's offer (US$7.75 per UraMin share) values UraMin at more than US$2.5 billion for 100% of its share capital*.

The deposits identified by UraMin in South Africa, Namibia and the Central African Republic should result in an annual production of more than 7,000 tons of uranium after 2012. The commissioning of these projects will also enable AREVA to further diversify its production resources to secure its customers' uranium supplies over the long-term.

AREVA intends to integrate UraMin as quickly as possible in order to optimise synergies with its existing mining activities and allow the company to develop its full potential.

For Anne Lauvergeon, CEO of AREVA: “the integration of UraMin into AREVA's Mining business unit constitutes a major step in the group's ambitious plan to increase its uranium production. It further strengthens the ability of AREVA to provide its customers with long-term secured uranium supplies as part of innovative commercial offers covering the entire nuclear cycle.”

The money Areva paid for UraMin company is roughly the same as PDN's market cap. Take $1.50 per share off the current PDN price would equate to a very reasonable value pick up at $4 AUD per share.

Considering Areva's ambitious plans to increase uranium production, and PDN, together with SMM resources, I would think it only reasonable that a cash cow/cashed up company like Areva would have their sights firmly set in the direction of PDN. Areva already owns 10% of SMM...

 

[Bush Trader]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

What do you think would be a fair and reasonable price for PDN shares if it beacme the target of a takeover? Keeping in mind a few weeks ago when there were rumours flying around, the stock shot up from $8.20 to $8.88 (when yours truly got caught up the moment)

How do you work it out when the stock is dropping in big clumps in todays climate?

In the past as I've done with the weather, wool, wheat & cattle markets, a little analysis and a lot of........

Gut Feel

The deeper the feeling in the gut..... the more likely it is to be ****

I know this dosen't help, however I think it is the only true answer with the current market sentiment.

Don't try to pick bottoms you will never win, my old man once said to be to be counter cyclical, however it is always better to buy a stock cheap on an uptrend than potentially dear on a downtrend.

Cheers


BT

 

[eMark]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

In the past as I've done with the weather, wool, wheat & cattle markets, a little analysis and a lot of........

Gut Feel

The deeper the feeling in the gut..... the more likely it is to be ****

I know this dosen't help, however I think it is the only true answer with the current market sentiment.

Don't try to pick bottoms you will never win, my old man once said to be to be counter cyclical, however it is always better to buy a stock cheap on an uptrend than potentially dear on a downtrend.

Cheers


BT

I understand your logic from a punters point of view, but I was asking the question from say Areva's point of view. What would be a fair and reasonable offer for PDN's shares in a takeover.

 

[Bush Trader]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

SorryeMark I missunderstood

Extract from the AGEIS report divide by shares issued & allow for options to be excercised, calculate NPV, add exploration upside, discount for risk, add takeover premium

2006A 2007F 2008 2009
Shareholders equity 124.7 258.5 341.1 475.6

Cheers


BT

 

[eMark]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

SorryeMark I missunderstood

Extract from the AGEIS report divide by shares issued & allow for options to be excercised, calculate NPV, add exploration upside, discount for risk, add takeover premium

2006A 2007F 2008 2009
Shareholders equity 124.7 258.5 341.1 475.6

Cheers


BT

Thanks Bush Trader.

Haven't quite got to the point of understanding, re working with the numbers supplied to determine my answer. Fancy a try?