I do not want to jinx myself to early, but PDN appears to holding up quite well considering the black clouds that are hovering over the market today. My guess is that PDN has been beaten into submission so much, that it's already been dealt the massive blows that a lot of other stocks are now experiencing.
I don't care if the stock drops 20-30c. It's a relief that it didn't plunge back into the mid $5 range today, which I was expecting. The day is not over yet though.....
I hold the stock at a much higher price than it's current SP.
I guess the important trigger to make the price go up is the U spot price.
At this stage the sentiment is too low..... I guess we will need to see a U spot price go back into upward trend before we can see a reverse of PDN price.
Very little demand and determined sellers. huge drop in price from US$136 from seven weeks ago still has not generated new interest in buying until buyers are convinced price drop has hit support.
Term activity is moderate, physical forwards market still slow. Only the futures market activity has picked up. Open interest end of last week = 224 contracts, this week new contracts = 158. Settlement prices / Period:
* $109. Dec 07
* $99. Jan - Mar 08
* $103. Apr - Jun 08
* $111. Jul - Dec 08
Volume for closed (confirmed) contracts mostly in the Dec 2007 of $109. Only 1 closed contract in Jan (1 out of 42) at $99. All other months all contracts open.
Production all around the world has been suffering (PDN, Uranium One, Rio, Areva, Cameco, ERA, BHP), and with little buying demand.....
Interestingly projected 2007 worldwide production came up. Region / U308 (millions) 2006 / U308 07 / % change:
* Africa / 18.3 / 19.9 / 9.0%
* Australia / 19.7 / 22.2 / 12.7%
* Canada / 25.6 / 25.6 / -0.1%
* Kazakhstan / 13.7 / 18.0 / 31.4%
* Russia / 9.0 / 9.4 / 4.0%
* USA / 4.4 / 4.5 / 2.3%
* Uzbekistan / 5.9 / 6.0 / 2.0%
* Other / 6.4 / 6.5 / 0.5%
* Total / 103.1 / 112.1 / 8.8%.
(Opinion) Long term fundamentals here folks. Don't think it's wise for CFD or margin trading here. DYOR thanks.
Thanks Kauri. Starting to look a little bit more realistic to me too, but oooooo, there's some panicky punters out there.If it manages $5.50 I won't be able to help myself.
With todays price action (not on my charts yet) she seems to be approaching the typical W(2) area, but by my E/W it could still fall to around the $4 region....
Cheers
....Kauri
The Daily chart definately suggests $4 is not out of the question, although this price is rediculous considering the price of Uranium, the demand for Uranium, and PDN Uranium making machine.
If Areva doesn't snap up PDN with SMM at $4, I'll do a nudie run across the Harbour Bridge!
Having said that, I'm gunna unpack the ute and make some room for my $4 PDN stock...
I'm no expert here, but given the credit crunch, why would anyone expect any large takeovers to happen?
Cheers,
I'm no expert here, but given the credit crunch, why would anyone expect any large takeovers to happen?
Cheers,
Why?
Areva has a market cap of 20 Billion Euro's.
Each share trades at 694 Euro.
Areva is the worlds leading company in nuclear energy. It is the only company with a presence in each industrial activity linked to nuclear energy: mining, chemistry, enrichment, combustibles, services, engineering, nuclear propulsion and reactors, treatment, recycling, stabilization, and dismantling. Areva offers technological solutions for CO2 free energy.
Worldwide, the Areva group has an industrial presence in 40 countries and its commercial network reaches more than 100 countries. It employs 58,000 people for a consolidated sales revenue of €10.863 billion.[2] In 2006, Fortune Magazine reported that Areva was the Most Admired Global Energy Company.[3]
In the USA, Areva is present in 40 locations across 20 states and employs 5,000 people. Areva supplies network products to two-thirds of all US utilities. Moreover, Areva was ranked No 1 US supplier in nuclear energy products and services, in Energy Management Systems and in Energy Market Systems.
In June 2007, Areva announced plans to acquire the African Uranium mining company UraMin for a final price of about 2.5 billion USD. This move further beefs up Areva's nuclear business, and Areva plans to increase production to 9 million tons of Yellowcake by 2012.
Press release:
July 31, 2007
Areva website
Successful takeover bid of AREVA over UraMin
AREVA announces it has taken over control of the mining company UraMin. At the expiry of the friendly offer launched on June 25, 2007 the shares tendered to its offer allow AREVA to hold approximately 92.93% of the UraMin share capital*.
AREVA's offer (US$7.75 per UraMin share) values UraMin at more than US$2.5 billion for 100% of its share capital*.
The deposits identified by UraMin in South Africa, Namibia and the Central African Republic should result in an annual production of more than 7,000 tons of uranium after 2012. The commissioning of these projects will also enable AREVA to further diversify its production resources to secure its customers' uranium supplies over the long-term.
AREVA intends to integrate UraMin as quickly as possible in order to optimise synergies with its existing mining activities and allow the company to develop its full potential.
For Anne Lauvergeon, CEO of AREVA: “the integration of UraMin into AREVA's Mining business unit constitutes a major step in the group's ambitious plan to increase its uranium production. It further strengthens the ability of AREVA to provide its customers with long-term secured uranium supplies as part of innovative commercial offers covering the entire nuclear cycle.”
The money Areva paid for UraMin company is roughly the same as PDN's market cap. Take $1.50 per share off the current PDN price would equate to a very reasonable value pick up at $4 AUD per share.
Considering Areva's ambitious plans to increase uranium production, and PDN, together with SMM resources, I would think it only reasonable that a cash cow/cashed up company like Areva would have their sights firmly set in the direction of PDN. Areva already owns 10% of SMM...
What do you think would be a fair and reasonable price for PDN shares if it beacme the target of a takeover? Keeping in mind a few weeks ago when there were rumours flying around, the stock shot up from $8.20 to $8.88 (when yours truly got caught up the moment)
How do you work it out when the stock is dropping in big clumps in todays climate?
In the past as I've done with the weather, wool, wheat & cattle markets, a little analysis and a lot of........
Gut Feel
The deeper the feeling in the gut..... the more likely it is to be ****
I know this dosen't help, however I think it is the only true answer with the current market sentiment.
Don't try to pick bottoms you will never win, my old man once said to be to be counter cyclical, however it is always better to buy a stock cheap on an uptrend than potentially dear on a downtrend.
Cheers
BT
SorryeMark I missunderstood
Extract from the AGEIS report divide by shares issued & allow for options to be excercised, calculate NPV, add exploration upside, discount for risk, add takeover premium
2006A 2007F 2008 2009
Shareholders equity 124.7 258.5 341.1 475.6
Cheers
BT
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