PDN - Paladin Energy

[motion]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Thanks Prospector !

If this happens is it a good thing or can u be a bad thing as well ? Sorry new to all of this trading halt business.

Thanks

 

[Prospector]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Its getting hard to call this one. It really could go either way, PDN is making a hostile bid for Summit, and the two are engaged in a court battle. Time will tell!

 

[motion]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Thanks for the info.. I guess I will wait!

 

[James Capel]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

No news is good news? I seriously hope so with this one. Seems to be a very long trading halt.

 

[eMark]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

I don't have access to my broker site in order to read adobe acrobat announcements. Does this announcement indicate how long the trading halt will last for? Usually they indicate when it's expected to reopen. Also I know about the takeover stuff, but what's this about a court battle? Has it gone that far? that could take a while....

 

[PureCoco]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

"The Summit board has resolved to unanimously recommend that all Summit shareholders accept Paladin’s increased offer."

 

[James Capel]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

so it took all day to come out with that ! ;-)

 

[Fab]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

so it took all day to come out with that ! ;-)

sounds like a great for PDN just before the ALP meeting which is likely to lift restriction on U mining

 

[eMark]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Now it's down 35c this morning. What's going on? Profit taking?

 

[dj_420]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

ok so as a new shareholder (or future shareholder) of PDN from my SMM shares i have done a little run down on PDN.

uranium deposits (measured)

langer heinrich = 23 800 t
kayelekea (85%) = 10 850 t
manyingee = 12 000 t
oobagooma = 9 950 t
vulhulla = 26 900 t
skal = 5000 t
andersons = 2 100 t
watta = 1 720 t
bigrlyi (41.7%) = 5 200

total = 97 520 t = 214 544 000 pounds of uranium


SMM takeover
SMM 197 440 020 shares =
PDN 118 227 557 shares for scrip takeover

PDN shares before takeover = 500 961 538
total PDN shares after takeover = 698 401 558

market cap (assuming shareprice stays around 10.00) 6.98 billion
value of PDN per pound of uranium = $32.5

assumptions are that sp stays around $10 following takeover of SMM
PDN shares will be diluted however PDN have secured a great foothold in australian uranium mining now

PDN have some fantastic projects langer heinrich already in production with kayelekea coming online in next year or so, PDN are well poised to secure the bulk of the uranium boom.

from this analysis i will hold my shares when PDN completes takeover of SMM as i also feel that in upcoming uranium conference that PDN will be win/win

1 - they change 3 mines policy PDN is able to develop resources in australia
2 - they dont change 3 mines policy PDN is already producing and another to come online soon

so i see this as a great opportunity to enter PDN

 

[Halba]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

What about not including the following:

manyingee = 12 000 t
oobagooma = 9 950 t


These skew the figures. These are WA deposits and are meaningless in valuing PDN as WA won't be opened up anytime soon. Its more accurate to value the deposits which can produce.

I get closer to $40/lb without the WA deposits. PDN is expensive!

 

[dj_420]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

your kidding me! your going to nitpick my post over two deposits in WA

so by your calculations any uranium deposit in WA is worth zero, as well as any explorer in that area. also by your calculations the many many explorers in WA should have a shareprice of zero cents because they cannot produce.

IMO carpenter will not stay around forever, there is some serious international pressure been put on him to change his stance, he is now stating that the uranium in WA should be for their (WA) energy uses no one else! i think he is setting up a platform from which he can backflip without to much backlash.

PDN is also the only one producing or have more production coming online anytime soon.

i think you will find that despite these deposits been in WA they are not discounted as ZERO value.

with PDN been exposed to uranium spot of $113 per pound i think we will find that they have a large market cap for one reason halba, they are PRODUCING URANIUM ALREADY.

PDN are building up stakes in very valuable assets, they have been doing so for a long time. maybe your upset because PDN didnt target MTN as a takeover target.

so ok EVEN if we discount the WA deposits, the $40 per pound valuation on PDN is only $8 more than SMM was valued at and they were only an explorer. i think you are not giving PDN any credit for already producing.

 

[Julia]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Now it's down 35c this morning. What's going on? Profit taking?

Possibly, but perhaps more likely a reaction to the acceptance of the deal with SMM where there has been some suggestion PDN has paid too much with their higher offer. My expectation would be that this reaction will be short term.

 

[Halba]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

dj_420:i think you are not giving PDN any credit for already producing.

I think PDN's returns from here are not going to be half as good as say a development company. Why invest in PDN? Just look at the returns for other u stocks. I am not attached to a company that produces, I look for the return.

 

[Sean K]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

What about not including the following:

manyingee = 12 000 t
oobagooma = 9 950 t

These skew the figures. These are WA deposits and are meaningless in valuing PDN as WA won't be opened up anytime soon. Its more accurate to value the deposits which can produce.

You are a tough nut to work out Halba. You don't value anything in WA but you jump on the bandwagon of a QLD/WA explorer like ECH:

Very very interesting company:

My thoughts:

4.5km airborne anomaly - looks very promising, and with further airborne radiometrics it will be refined up and made clearer what they have.

So close to SMM tenements as well. Already got some good historical drills. Land very prospective.

Yeeliree south - very prospective tenements there next to BHP's mega deposit.

Overall not bad for a $19m company.

As a result I have taken a position. I don't expect news flow until mid to late next Month on their Yeeliree tenements.

This looks similar to Erongo(ERN) but it is in Australian properties near established deposits and big names.

Obviously, this one must be special.

Having pointed out this inconsistancy, I agree PDN looks expensive, but has an incredible suite of assets and further potential exploration success across the world. Further acquisitions look likely IMO. I think they'll be striking while the iron's hot and using their current strong position to further increase their holdings. Eventually, could be one of the worlds top U producers.

 

[dj_420]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

I think PDN's returns from here are not going to be half as good as say a development company. Why invest in PDN? Just look at the returns for other u stocks. I am not attached to a company that produces, I look for the return.

halba you seem quite certain that govt will overrule policy, you realise it could still swing the other way, then all the u stocks in australia will experience all that hot money coming out of the sector.

i was of half mind to sell all my SMM before conference, PDN have made up my mind for me, for PDN its a win/win situation.

and who do you think everyone will invest in if policy is NOT overturned halba, i would tend to go with a PRODUCER

 

[Halba]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Huh kennas I am more optimistic in QLD changing policy but WA am not. ECH is mainly a QLD play. Fair enough, but Toronto market is not happy with PDN's deal with SMM and PDN is not in favour right now. It may change in a couple of weeks.

 

[exgeo]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

I read in SMM's target statement that a large proportion of their shares (SMM's) were in the hands of hedge funds. It might be reasonable to think that the same funds might have been into PDN as well, and now that the cards are finally on the table, they're packing up the camp and moving on to the next battleground. Therefore one might expect some short-term SP weakness as they sell out. That was my reasoning to myself for buying more anyway. Time will tell whether I was right or not. As one of the very few companies in the world with new mines either in production or coming online, they are going to attract a premium rating. The increased market cap. post the takeover will only serve to make the combined company more visible to large institutional investors looking for uranium exposure at almost any price. Of course in the past Cameco has served that role.

 

[eMark]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

Possibly, but perhaps more likely a reaction to the acceptance of the deal with SMM where there has been some suggestion PDN has paid too much with their higher offer. My expectation would be that this reaction will be short term.

Hi Julia. let's hope so. Another hit for PDN today. Following on from the TSX. Who's following who? When is the next Uranium auction price?

 

[chance fate]

Re: PDN - Paladin Resources

i like where the uranium spot price is going but US$ weakening is killing some of the benefit in the SP... anyone got any predictions on where U-spot and US-$ might head...?