PDN - Paladin Energy
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Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
I'm not sure about anyone else, but technically here for Paladin I see a potential double top. Now, I do stress that these are always difficult to pick and can be a dangerous to trade, but if you are watching from the sidelines, below about 7.92 offers you a short trade to about $7 IMO. Of course, you would trading against the trend here, but I feel that, provided the break below 7.92 is triggered, we may see it fall to this area. It will be very interesting when we finally see the numbers from the Namibia mine come out in Feb?? (not sure of the date here, I presume end of Feb like every other company). I think the market has overstretched the fundamentals of the Company here, which is fine if the chart reads strength, but I think we are starting to see some weakness here. Could be this be the start of a move down? Not quite sure we will have a bearish picture here considering the strength of the sector in general, but I think the probability of seeing a bit of downward momentum here for a patch is likely.
Cheers
I'm not sure about anyone else, but technically here for Paladin I see a potential double top. Now, I do stress that these are always difficult to pick and can be a dangerous to trade, but if you are watching from the sidelines, below about 7.92 offers you a short trade to about $7 IMO. Of course, you would trading against the trend here, but I feel that, provided the break below 7.92 is triggered, we may see it fall to this area. It will be very interesting when we finally see the numbers from the Namibia mine come out in Feb?? (not sure of the date here, I presume end of Feb like every other company). I think the market has overstretched the fundamentals of the Company here, which is fine if the chart reads strength, but I think we are starting to see some weakness here. Could be this be the start of a move down? Not quite sure we will have a bearish picture here considering the strength of the sector in general, but I think the probability of seeing a bit of downward momentum here for a patch is likely.
Cheers
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Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
reece
I can't see PDN get short term traction without a price hike to spot uranium.
As these are "weekly" events, and this week will see uranium static, short term traders can safely lock in profits and park money elsewhere , maybe till next week.
So PDN will need a positive news announcement to kick it north in the interim ("luck" involved!): Prognosis of decline in price over the week is high probability in my books.
Longer term:
Cogema own 50% of Cigar Lake, and Cogema has long term contracts that will default on any prolonged delay of that project: Cogema is world's largest supplier of uranium to the energy industry (I think that's right?).
Although Cogema has force majeur and other contractual protections built into its supply contracts, it still may not want to default as customer relationships are paramount while the uranium price keeps heading north.
So I have a strong suspicion that PDN will, later in 2007, start to have a takeover premium built into its price. Whereas presently it seems mostly to have a speculative frenzy driving it crazy.
reece
I can't see PDN get short term traction without a price hike to spot uranium.
As these are "weekly" events, and this week will see uranium static, short term traders can safely lock in profits and park money elsewhere , maybe till next week.
So PDN will need a positive news announcement to kick it north in the interim ("luck" involved!): Prognosis of decline in price over the week is high probability in my books.
Longer term:
Cogema own 50% of Cigar Lake, and Cogema has long term contracts that will default on any prolonged delay of that project: Cogema is world's largest supplier of uranium to the energy industry (I think that's right?).
Although Cogema has force majeur and other contractual protections built into its supply contracts, it still may not want to default as customer relationships are paramount while the uranium price keeps heading north.
So I have a strong suspicion that PDN will, later in 2007, start to have a takeover premium built into its price. Whereas presently it seems mostly to have a speculative frenzy driving it crazy.
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Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
ABN Amros is not covering PDN now but did have a target price of 6.47 for it in Nov2006. Below I have taken parts of their analysis and updated the u3o8 price with recent broker average price estimates for u3o8 from a eureka report. ABN's provide the estimated % increase of NPAT for every US$1 change per lb.
496.2 M shares $8.15 current SP
07F 08F 09F
11 33 139 NPAT $m
0.022 0.067 0.280 EPS
49 53 58 US$/lb used in analysis
90 90 90 other estimates (per average of various brokers)
41 37 32 difference
8 5 3 % increase for every US$1/lb change in U price
328% 185% 96% % change to NPAT
47.08 94.05 272.44 revised NPAT $m
0.095 0.190 0.549 revised EPS
85.9 43.0 14.8 revised PE
07F 08F 09F
What this all means I'm not sure?
I'm presuming PDN may continue to run up to production commencing when the inevitable technical problems dampen the price... but if they do hit their targets / and the u3o8 price estimates are vaguely accurate ... you're currently buying PDN @ a PE of 15 in 3 yrs time... impossible to compare really but ERA is currently trading on a PE of 89.
For the 09F PE to be 30, current SP needs to be $16
If PDN shares fall to $5, PEs become 49 / 24 / 8
Is this useful or are there too many unknowns between now and 2009??
ABN Amros is not covering PDN now but did have a target price of 6.47 for it in Nov2006. Below I have taken parts of their analysis and updated the u3o8 price with recent broker average price estimates for u3o8 from a eureka report. ABN's provide the estimated % increase of NPAT for every US$1 change per lb.
496.2 M shares $8.15 current SP
07F 08F 09F
11 33 139 NPAT $m
0.022 0.067 0.280 EPS
49 53 58 US$/lb used in analysis
90 90 90 other estimates (per average of various brokers)
41 37 32 difference
8 5 3 % increase for every US$1/lb change in U price
328% 185% 96% % change to NPAT
47.08 94.05 272.44 revised NPAT $m
0.095 0.190 0.549 revised EPS
85.9 43.0 14.8 revised PE
07F 08F 09F
What this all means I'm not sure?
I'm presuming PDN may continue to run up to production commencing when the inevitable technical problems dampen the price... but if they do hit their targets / and the u3o8 price estimates are vaguely accurate ... you're currently buying PDN @ a PE of 15 in 3 yrs time... impossible to compare really but ERA is currently trading on a PE of 89.For the 09F PE to be 30, current SP needs to be $16
If PDN shares fall to $5, PEs become 49 / 24 / 8
Is this useful or are there too many unknowns between now and 2009??
Sean K
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Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
Now we can all look at some facts and figures and run away and do our own analysis. This is what ASF is all about.
In regard to the pe's and their application in the future, there are of course many, many factors to be considered, but for ANY F/A, this is almost a starting point for serious discussion on the value of this stock.
PDN market cap almost $5b! Why?
Half the value of QAN?
Let's see someone please justify this, more than what has been presented above.......
Great stuff!!
No, this is great stuff, I think. Thanks 56gsa. (funny nic that!)56gsa said:
Now we can all look at some facts and figures and run away and do our own analysis. This is what ASF is all about.
In regard to the pe's and their application in the future, there are of course many, many factors to be considered, but for ANY F/A, this is almost a starting point for serious discussion on the value of this stock.
PDN market cap almost $5b! Why?
Half the value of QAN?
Let's see someone please justify this, more than what has been presented above.......
Great stuff!!
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Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
Factor these into the forward p/es!
Plus PDN is in a part of the world that is highly prospective, and allows mining starts with little fuss.
This places them well ahead of ERA.
Of course, very few people are thinking uranium prices will fall any time soon.
And remember that uranium only starts to look expensive after it hits about $500/lb - so there is some useful headroom.
Given this, PDN can probably continue to trade at a p/e well over 20 without worrying stock holders.
PDN has 2 other uranium projects on the simmer.kennas said:PDN market cap almost $5b! Why?
Half the value of QAN?
Let's see someone please justify this, more than what has been presented above.......
Great stuff!!
Factor these into the forward p/es!
Plus PDN is in a part of the world that is highly prospective, and allows mining starts with little fuss.
This places them well ahead of ERA.
Of course, very few people are thinking uranium prices will fall any time soon.
And remember that uranium only starts to look expensive after it hits about $500/lb - so there is some useful headroom.
Given this, PDN can probably continue to trade at a p/e well over 20 without worrying stock holders.
Sean K
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Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
Putting a pe on PDN is extremely hazardous IMO, without further guidance on their future projects and how LH starts up. It will be extremely interesting to see their first reports out on production there.
Fully agree on the future of U3O8 spot prices mentioned above. Seems bound to go up and way out of the BFS perameters that PDN had in place during the ramp up to production. Certainly upside there, but has it already been factored in?
I'm a big fan of the U industry, as many would have seen over the past year, but I'm starting to feel things are getting overheated and want to bring some reality back to the argument. It's just hard to see where that reality is.
All the best!
Kennas
Thoroughly agree with the projects PDN have on the horizon. A couple are extremely prospective, especially the IUJV, when Labor change their policy.rederob said:
Putting a pe on PDN is extremely hazardous IMO, without further guidance on their future projects and how LH starts up. It will be extremely interesting to see their first reports out on production there.
Fully agree on the future of U3O8 spot prices mentioned above. Seems bound to go up and way out of the BFS perameters that PDN had in place during the ramp up to production. Certainly upside there, but has it already been factored in?
I'm a big fan of the U industry, as many would have seen over the past year, but I'm starting to feel things are getting overheated and want to bring some reality back to the argument. It's just hard to see where that reality is.
All the best!
Kennas
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Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
Kennas
I'm with you here mate - this is a stock with so much going for it, but at a valuation of $4 Bil, are we not seeing all that and then some?? Only time will tell here. But the chart to me reads short term weakness, so thats my take. I also agree that when we start to see some figures from LH, the stock will be a little easier to gauge.
Rederob, as I asked before on the Uranium thread, have you actually got any evidence regarding the fact that Uranium only begins to get expensive at $500? I really would like to see where you are pulling this stat from - if its true, then that is great for the industry. But I would like to see some objective evidence before taking that leap of faith! Finally, to say that PDN should trade at a p/e of 20 is a bit of an arbitrary take here don't you think. Remember, miners traditional trade at much lower p/e due to the risky nature of the business and you would have to say that PDN is in this boat. To me, PDN's valuation at present has no risk premium factored into it - all Kennas is saying is that he wants the sector as a whole to cool down for a bit to let the fundamentals kick in and either confirm or reject the valuation. I mean, if that is your take on PDN, then what is the value of BHP - $40.00??????????? Clearly the market is discounting them and clearly the market has liked the flavour of PDN - will this change, only time will tell.
Cheers
Kennas
I'm with you here mate - this is a stock with so much going for it, but at a valuation of $4 Bil, are we not seeing all that and then some?? Only time will tell here. But the chart to me reads short term weakness, so thats my take. I also agree that when we start to see some figures from LH, the stock will be a little easier to gauge.
Rederob, as I asked before on the Uranium thread, have you actually got any evidence regarding the fact that Uranium only begins to get expensive at $500? I really would like to see where you are pulling this stat from - if its true, then that is great for the industry. But I would like to see some objective evidence before taking that leap of faith! Finally, to say that PDN should trade at a p/e of 20 is a bit of an arbitrary take here don't you think. Remember, miners traditional trade at much lower p/e due to the risky nature of the business and you would have to say that PDN is in this boat. To me, PDN's valuation at present has no risk premium factored into it - all Kennas is saying is that he wants the sector as a whole to cool down for a bit to let the fundamentals kick in and either confirm or reject the valuation. I mean, if that is your take on PDN, then what is the value of BHP - $40.00??????????? Clearly the market is discounting them and clearly the market has liked the flavour of PDN - will this change, only time will tell.
Cheers
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Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
reece
The sums on the $500 figure are a little "rubbery", but are based on the unit cost comparisons for generating electricity via coal/oil/gas versus a nuclear reactor (burning uranium).
Clearly with downward movement of oil/gas prices and coal prices staying much the same, there is a fair bit of "wiggle" room.
(Sorry I didn't answer you elsewhere, but I don't subscribe to the threads, and only read the ones that interest me whenever I return to this site.)
A for PDN's p/e - I think it's an irrelevance until we see 12 month's production: Everything until then is just a guessing game with little consequence. So I could equally have said 200 as 20 for PDN and in my view it would have as much value.
The one thing I can confidently say about forward p/es is that forecasters are so far out in general (for commodities) that it would take a brave person to use this indicator as a key tool for trading shares!
reece
The sums on the $500 figure are a little "rubbery", but are based on the unit cost comparisons for generating electricity via coal/oil/gas versus a nuclear reactor (burning uranium).
Clearly with downward movement of oil/gas prices and coal prices staying much the same, there is a fair bit of "wiggle" room.
(Sorry I didn't answer you elsewhere, but I don't subscribe to the threads, and only read the ones that interest me whenever I return to this site.)
A for PDN's p/e - I think it's an irrelevance until we see 12 month's production: Everything until then is just a guessing game with little consequence. So I could equally have said 200 as 20 for PDN and in my view it would have as much value.
The one thing I can confidently say about forward p/es is that forecasters are so far out in general (for commodities) that it would take a brave person to use this indicator as a key tool for trading shares!
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
I agree with this view. PDN does not follow any rational at the moment. Who knows where U stocks will go in the future I guess a good indication is the U spot price and this is not going down anytime soon as far as I know.PDN appears to be consolidating again around the $8 mark. When is the next big jump ?
rederob said:
I agree with this view. PDN does not follow any rational at the moment. Who knows where U stocks will go in the future I guess a good indication is the U spot price and this is not going down anytime soon as far as I know.PDN appears to be consolidating again around the $8 mark. When is the next big jump ?
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
Will it hold over the $9 mark? Can anyone explain why it is going so strong today. There seems to be a trading range at the moment between $8 and $9Fab said:Probably not consolidating anymore. It is in jumping phase now. I am not sure I understand why so ???
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Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
all u308 stocks up todayFab said:
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Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
I hazard a guess at Broker Sentiment, this story may be of interest to you gentlemen.
Fab said:Probably not consolidating anymore. It is in jumping phase now. I am not sure I understand why so ???
I hazard a guess at Broker Sentiment, this story may be of interest to you gentlemen.
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Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
Where is USB when PDN is just a few cents stock, and ERA a few dollars?
It is very hard to pinpoint one, only one stock given the extremely speculative nature of uranium stock. Why cannot we have both? Why should we follow USB's magic wand, which IMO only benefit USB and its associates. Not you and me.
Where is USB when PDN is just a few cents stock, and ERA a few dollars?
It is very hard to pinpoint one, only one stock given the extremely speculative nature of uranium stock. Why cannot we have both? Why should we follow USB's magic wand, which IMO only benefit USB and its associates. Not you and me.
Prospector
Not a scaredy cat anymore
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Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
Cough, cough
Bush Trader said:
Cough, cough
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
has anyone heard about paladin's heavy handed tactics as reported here: http://melbourne.indymedia.org/news/2007/01/137424.php
wonder if this is a storm before the calm if the mine is afecting the people in nearby town
one very good thing going for PDN is that the aussies do not live anywhere near their minesite - otherwise they would have to close it down even on the slightest whiff of things going bad for people living in the area
has anyone heard about paladin's heavy handed tactics as reported here: http://melbourne.indymedia.org/news/2007/01/137424.php
wonder if this is a storm before the calm if the mine is afecting the people in nearby town
one very good thing going for PDN is that the aussies do not live anywhere near their minesite - otherwise they would have to close it down even on the slightest whiff of things going bad for people living in the area
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Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
My apologies prospector, and ladies!
My apologies prospector, and ladies!
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Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
Interfering other country's affair by a government and NGO is always bad idea no matter good will or bad will. The uranium mining could be big economy boost for Malawi. It is a developing country. They need food, housing, school... first before speculation the bad consequence of uranium mining.
But these governments will soon or later use its people as excuse to squeeze more blood from mining companies.
ekman said:
Interfering other country's affair by a government and NGO is always bad idea no matter good will or bad will. The uranium mining could be big economy boost for Malawi. It is a developing country. They need food, housing, school... first before speculation the bad consequence of uranium mining.
But these governments will soon or later use its people as excuse to squeeze more blood from mining companies.
