PAR - Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals

[scolloymore]

Trading Halt ends Monday 6th April what will the news bring .....?

 

[galumay]

I think the news will be that the FDA announces the design of the Phase 3 clinical trials, in reality that news should come as no surprise and is really already baked into the price, but who knows how the market will react!

 

[galumay]

As predicted, path forward for Phase 3 trials, all good, need to do the 2 separate trials, CR of $35m, not even bothering to go to retail investors, CR at $1.30 for Instro & sophisticated investors. Not many companies could pull that off in times like these! Annoyed at missing out, but happy with the progress.

 

[scolloymore]

Now will this dribble down to the CR price or will we see it build a wall at aound mid low 1.60s

 

[Trav.]

PAR came up on my scan, so I read the R&D Investor Presentation in the hope that I might get a feel for the company.


well I am none the wiser. I had absolutely no idea on what they were talking about.. Stick the chart son..

 

[galumay]

If you do want to find out some more about what they do, then the 51 Capital research is worth reading, scroll down and there are 3 articles they have published, https://www.fiftyonecapital.com/performance-media

 

[Trav.]

Well I ended entering PAR for a trade and so far it is heading in the right direction.

Momentum has kicked up which is good to see.

Holding @ 2.43

 

[Trav.]

Video and slide show for conference presentation that paints a good picture

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02330123-3A559391?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

 

[galumay]

I guess the thing investors in PAR have to remember is that its likely nearly 3 years before commercial sales are likely on scale. The Phase 3 trials will take the best part of 2 years to see much meaningful data. Of course in the meantime its not improbable that a Big Pharma will buy PAR out. My point is that patience is needed and a lot can still go wrong, so position sizing is important. I hold as much as I am comfortable with currently, may look to add as the Phase 3 data flows.

 

[Trav.]

Good point @galumay slide 13 gives the indicative time frame

and 14

 

[Dona Ferentes]

up 25% on news

• Paradigm’s IND application to commence its phase 3 pivotal clinical trial investigating Pentosan Polysulphate Sodium (PPS) for the treatment of pain associated with knee osteoarthritis has been cleared by the US FDA.
• The US central ethics committee has already approved the Trial.
• Australian ethics approval for the Trial was previously announced on 24 September 2021.
• Approximately 65 sites have been identified throughout the US and Australia. Contracting with many of those sites has been completed. The first 4 sites in Australia have initiated screening participants. Screening at the US sites is expected to begin prior to the end of CY2021.
• The Company is now in a position to accelerate recruitment by adding approximately 10 sites in the United Kingdom and Europe, with site initiation and subject screening expected to commence in 1H CY 2022.

 

[galumay]

Good news, but not unexpected, we knew it was very close to approval. It does de risk PAR a little, so I expect there will be some movement up in the price as new investors look to build positions. I may look to add some more myself.

 

[galumay]

Stage 3 trials underway for a while now, some positive news around patents and other trials has been welcome news recently. In the last week someone or some people, have decided they want in, everything getting soaked up and price just going up as supply dries up. Its snuck up over 60% over the last week - mainly in moves of around 10% per day. Either there is some news not yet in the public arena or it has caught the attention of somebody who was previously unaware of it. I guess the other possibility is its been pumped somewhere online and its just speculative traders - but it doesn't seem like the sort of company they would normally play with?

 

[galumay]

For anyone interested in progress with PAR and the timeline with getting the product to market, this presentation recently delivered to investors may be of interest,

 

[galumay]

Up another 10%+ today, now up over 100% in 10 days trading with no real news!

 

[galumay]

PAR announcing the successful outcome of their PARA_OA_008 Phase 2 Trial is more good news for the potential of iPPS in relieving Osteoarthritis. Up 20% this morning on the news.

 

[galumay]

Up another 20% today, basically 40% for the week! Good volumes too, market is starting to believe.

 

[frugal.rock]

If you have never looked at PAR, maybe it's an opportune time, or not.? I'll check back in 6 months.

 

[galumay]

Its a binary play, @frugal.rock - one product and its all or nothing, if they get thru the phase 3 trials and make it to market it will be a massively profitable business, or get taken out at a big premium. If it fails, it has nothing else, its a big fat zero. Its my only biotech because they basically have about a 1 in a million chance of actually being investible businesses!

PAR is like my lottery ticket, probably nothing, but a tiny chance of amazing returns. Out of character, narrative speculation, basically gambling. Everyone has their weakness!

 

[galumay]

PAR has jumped nicely the last couple of days, up over 10% on good news out of their MPS I phase 2 clinical trial. A step closer to maybe something!