PANIC!!!!! (Strategies for those long)

doctorj · 6 March 2007

Why is it when markets are going up, its a supercycle and a new age economy and "different this time". When its going down, its the start of the bear market we had to have and its going to be a sustained and deep pull back.

And why is it every time we have a correction, people trot out 1987 (or even 1929 - have I got my yr right there?) for a comparison?

Why do very gifted traders suddenly care about predicting the future when they all have trading plans telling them exactly what to do anyway?

I don't have an opinion on where we will be at the end of week, I'll just trade what I see when it happens. If I were a betting man, I'd say we saw the lows of this leg yesterday and we're going to be green this week. Not sure if its a DCB or just the end of the correction.

Not ranting - just curious. Good luck to all

Out Too Soon · 6 March 2007

I imagine it's just a blip on the way down to oblivion but ZFX, BSG, OXR, GBG & a whole heap more- correction all ordinaries show green arrows with point on top.
I've already made the mistake of jumping in too soon last thursday.
Comments?

Wait maybe the bounce is petering out already. Help!

CanOz · 6 March 2007

doctorj said:
Why is it when markets are going up, its a supercycle and a new age economy and "different this time". When its going down, its the start of the bear market we had to have and its going to be a sustained and deep pull back.

And why is it every time we have a correction, people trot out 1987 (or even 1929 - have I got my yr right there?) for a comparison?

Why do very gifted traders suddenly care about predicting the future when they all have trading plans telling them exactly what to do anyway?

I don't have an opinion on where we will be at the end of week, I'll just trade what I see when it happens. If I were a betting man, I'd say we saw the lows of this leg yesterday and we're going to be green this week. Not sure if its a DCB or just the end of the correction.

Not ranting - just curious. Good luck to all

I think its just human nature (male nature more so) to try and solve the problem, analyse it to death. I really look forward to the analysis of the more experienced traders, this whole thing is a huge learning experience for me, i'm really enjoying this, its a shame people are losing money though.

Cheers,

tech/a · 6 March 2007

doctorj said:
Why is it when markets are going up, its a supercycle and a new age economy and "different this time". When its going down, its the start of the bear market we had to have and its going to be a sustained and deep pull back.

Doc.
There are analysis tools that can alert you to periods/or levels of significance.
They have done that THIS time. You may have noticed that in the past I've not made a great deal of down moves. This time I have simply because there are many whose analysis confirms.

And why is it every time we have a correction, people trot out 1987 (or even 1929 - have I got my yr right there?) for a comparison?

Thats true, but these corrective moves make up part of the whole picture. While in isolation they have little relevance to today as part of the ANALYTICAL landscape they are very important.---as we shall see.

Why do very gifted traders suddenly care about predicting the future when they all have trading plans telling them exactly what to do anyway?

True, I'll take Techtrader as its reasonably known. It has very specific rules which I will adhere to. It may well breakdown from the Numbers "Blueprint" at which time I will close down my trading within the method.
FURTHER
Analysis tells me that this is likely to now be quite a period of less than bullish trend type conditions. Not suited to trend type methodologies.
Time to alter or become prepared to alter my trading bias.---been doing this since before Xmas.

I don't have an opinion on where we will be at the end of week, I'll just trade what I see when it happens. If I were a betting man, I'd say we saw the lows of this leg yesterday and we're going to be green this week. Not sure if its a DCB or just the end of the correction.

Think this is the beginning of "B" of the three wave corrective phase.
At the end of this ABC we need to see if we get a 5th wave down (which many suspect) if this occures then a short term correction is out of the question.The 5 waves will then be a single first wave A of a larger timeframe ABC or even a more complex structure.(Tree may have me laughing on the other side of my face---but too early for me to call).
As these things develop I can walk through them if you want.

Not ranting - just curious.

Does this help a bit?

doctorj · 6 March 2007

tech/a said:
Doc.
There are analysis tools that can alert you to periods/or levels of significance.
They have done that THIS time. You may have noticed that in the past I've not made a great deal of down moves. This time I have simply because there are many whose analysis confirms.

Fair call. I guess we're just at different stages of development. Personally, I've learnt a lot from your posts and it's definately accelerated me up the learning curve. Maybe I'm just not there yet or maybe what I'm doing is working so I'm not looking any deeper?

tech/a said:
Think this is the beginning of "B" of the three wave corrective phase.
At the end of this ABC we need to see if we get a 5th wave down (which many suspect) if this occures then a short term correction is out of the question.The 5 waves will then be a single first wave A of a larger timeframe ABC or even a more complex structure.(Tree may have me laughing on the other side of my face---but too early for me to call).
As these things develop I can walk through them if you want.

I guess what we suspect is simlar. You're calling the start to a B and I suspect a short term low is in place. It's funny how different methods of analysis can converge on the same outcome.

I'd be greatful if you maintain your commentry as things unfold. I do pay attention to EW, but more of as a curiousity than a trading tool and I'm always looking to learn more.

So with your analysis, are you still only trading equities? Have you begun to use your understanding of the market in managing your business or are you looking at indicies or commodities or currencies?

tech/a · 6 March 2007

doctorj said:
I guess what we suspect is simlar. You're calling the start to a B and I suspect a short term low is in place. It's funny how different methods of analysis can converge on the same outcome.

They can and do.Elliot Ive found is more accurate---tells you where you are and where you should think about being.

I'd be greatful if you maintain your commentry as things unfold. I do pay attention to EW, but more of as a curiousity than a trading tool and I'm always looking to learn more.

Just like you so did I (pay attention to Elliot.) Its when it keeps doing what its supposed to do that a cursory interest becomes a "need to know".

So with your analysis, are you still only trading equities? Have you begun to use your understanding of the market in managing your business or are you looking at indicies or commodities or currencies?

Havent altered from stock,but can see how trading other instruments may well be possible (as I can see where I could have an edge) and possibly desirable in the future. In the Near future---No its a time thing I'm still learning myself!!

Chart

Counts are in all time frames---sometimes they arent clear and with the waves being dynamic people have trouble with the possibility and often the eventuation of labelling having to change.

theasxgorilla · 6 March 2007

doctorj said:
Why is it when markets are going up, its a supercycle and a new age economy and "different this time". When its going down, its the start of the bear market we had to have and its going to be a sustained and deep pull back.

And why is it every time we have a correction, people trot out 1987 (or even 1929 - have I got my yr right there?) for a comparison?

Why do very gifted traders suddenly care about predicting the future when they all have trading plans telling them exactly what to do anyway?

1. Because boring news doesn't sell.
2. Because everyone knows it's impossible to accurately imagine how the future is going to be (ask Harry Dent or Bob Prechter)...much easier to just say it's going to be the same as it was before.
3. Because predicting is a little bit of fun. Doing it makes you feel like you know something nobody else does (and this is true until proven otherwise) and because if you get it right you are entitled to your 15 minutes of fame.

Cynical??? Who, me?

The ASX Gorilla.

tech/a · 6 March 2007

Changing waves---as evident here.

tech/a · 6 March 2007

Now confirmed.

tech/a · 6 March 2007

Sorry wont bore you anymore just practicing.

Knobby22 · 6 March 2007

tech/a said:
Sorry wont bore you anymore just practicing.

No, keep it up. I find this micro version of Elliot waves fascinating.
They also appear to me) to be more accurate that than the long term ones as emotion is so immediate.

K22

Kauri · 6 March 2007

tech/a said:
Sorry wont bore you anymore just practicing.

Hardly boring......
Am trading it much the same as ypu have your count, except I anticipated the w5 top a bit early.. am on the verge of being stopped out.
Sorry.... Can't put a count on as no text in this chart.

Dr Doom · 6 March 2007

Yes, keep the analysis going with the charts. Tech, did you act on your target price eg go short. The strength in this rebound is amazing.

theasxgorilla · 6 March 2007

Knobby22 said:
No, keep it up. I find this micro version of Elliot waves fascinating.
They also appear to me) to be more accurate that than the long term ones as emotion is so immediate.

K22

I agree on both K22!

Tech/a, please do keep it up. My interest in Elliott Wave continues to be re-kindled. I actually had a question...IF you are mapping a 5-wave count up here, what does that infer about the wave of one higher degree? Impulse? I'm stilll rusty

K22, EW does seem to work better in shorter timeframes. Your counts are confirmed or denied more frequently meaning you can re-adjust sooner...Prechter made his famous 400% trading options on an index with hourly charts, but has failed miserably to predict anything in the long term.

motorway · 6 March 2007

I am replying so I can not see your chart as I type

( should have opened another window )

First three bars = ending action esp 2 and 3 Selling Climax in 3

Quick rally called Automatic ( vacuum of overhead offerings but buyers not likely to push too hard )

Down to a secondary test... Then some immediate Signs of strength

Some bars with good range and closes ... Straight into a Jump across the creek... Such strong definitive reversal expect significant markup ( such a good jump cleared the creek ( of supply ) and the far bank as well... So maybe not much of a back-up expected )

Markup phase follows....

looks ( No volume ) as if demand tappered off series of small rallies reactions

reaccumulation area.....measuring thrusts and 1/2 way points..

going to form an apex with rising bottoms ( good sign for this being reaccumulation )
look to continuation to occur

Much in common between elliot and wyckoff
quote about Wyckoff

"Wyckoff understood that price movement does not unfold in equal units of time but that it unfolds in waves. "

Elliot attempts to put a structure on the waves

Wyckoff says waves last as long as they retain a following

And the secret is in that VOLUME = following

Cheers Tech/a your chart looks like a copybook Wyckoff Schematic..

Even without volume it can be inferred to some extent from the bars .

Have a look at the schematics

motorway

MichaelD · 6 March 2007

That's one sprightly dead cat bounce we're having today. (Maybe no one told the cat it was supposed to be dead).

Speaking from the way I see it (which is to consider whether there is fear or greed around) - I was very surprised this morning when I saw that the Dow hadn't fallen another 100 points. It made me feel quite bullish, quite the opposite to how I felt last night. Looks like other market participants today feel the same.

tech/a · 6 March 2007

Ok.

Tommorow I really have to get some work done. Plus I'm zapped watching 5 min charts.
No Im not trading retracements long or short. I'm not set up to do that yet and when I do it will be EOD.There is no way I could or want to be glued to a screen.

So here is an hrly screen which clearly shows our A in place and now our B being formed.Id be looking at 50-61.8 retracement for B any lower like 38% and its very weak.

Remember I'm no expert.

tech/a · 7 March 2007

Not a good sign

Obvious selling into strength.

nizar · 7 March 2007

Agree tech.
This isnt over yet.

GIve it a couple more weeks and a few hundred more points off the XAO.

In my opinion.
Then again this could well be approaching the end of the bullmarket.

Julia · 7 March 2007

Tech

For those of us for whom Elliott Wave is a foreign language, could you include some brief translation in terms of what the analysis suggests is actually happening (or going to happen) to the market?

With thanks

Julia

PANIC!!!!! (Strategies for those long)

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