PANIC!!!!! (Strategies for those long)

[Sean K]

From Adaptive Analysis :

Wave "A" and Wave "C" tend to be the same length.


Cheers

That takes us to 5500, which is one of the support lines down there. 5450 ish is still my call. 50 points either way.

 

[tech/a]

(Strategies for those long)

As an exercise for interest only.

As this is the topic and incase some would be interested in how I would have/or now play it (I havent gone short as I dont have a CFD account--will be interesting in how costly this will have been by not having one.).

I would be short on 4 of the weakest movers from the last downturn.
They are
ZFX
PDN
JBM
ALL.
I would have "margined" at 2:1 (Im conservative.)
Stop would be yesterdays high plus 2 ticks.
Exit at around 4765 ish on the XJO

I found four weakest from a search I created in metastock.
Just rated by %.

Exploration notes

Col A: C-Ref(C,-4)/C*100
Filter CLOSE >10.00

Filter enabled Yes
Periodicity Daily
Records required 5000

For those interested searched on 5/03/07as that was the end of the fall.

WAVE C

From Me in conjunction with the writings of Robert Miner.

(1)I think this will be a more complex correction so expect only around a 50-70% move of "A" so this becomes a probable triangle.(Because wave "A" was a simple 3 wave structure and not a 5 wave structure)

(2) If this becomes a 5 wave correction and "C" tests or EXCEEDS "A"
Then this could be a completion of the ABC zigzag correction.(Not yet known but I think far less likely in my limited veiw.)

So my target is 5755 ish/MAX.
as a probable triangle forming OR more complex correction.

So I'm against the tide of most opinions it seems.

 

[wavepicker]

That takes us to 5500, which is one of the support lines down there. 5450 ish is still my call. 50 points either way.

5500 was my level for an intermediate bounce some weeks ago. But I stress an intermediate bounce. This of on the larger timeframe is in it's infancy and will ultimately move to 5000(this is the span of the previous 4th wave of one less degree a common place for support) . Either bullishly OR countertrend. No one can tell at this stage

 

[tech/a]

OOPs.

re calculation.
Its 62% of wave "A" not "B"
According to Miner.

Making the possible target.
5662 max.--255 points.
For this leg,of a more complex corrective move.

Still out of step with everyone.

 

[tech/a]

Waves or anyone who is more experienced in wave counts.

Which would make the C wave around the length of "A" or 411 points.

Therefore target 5506.
Back in step.

Is this the way you view the count? Which would explain why I'm out of Step.
Thanks.

 

[Kauri]

Tech,
Nothing to do with your count but the way Miner's software sees the simple ABC, of course not including projections for the larger degree W(2). By the way, would the B wave in your chart be right labelled abc as opposed to 123???

 

[dubiousinfo]

(Strategies for those long)

As an exercise for interest only.

As this is the topic and incase some would be interested in how I would have/or now play it (I havent gone short as I dont have a CFD account--will be interesting in how costly this will have been by not having one.).

I would be short on 4 of the weakest movers from the last downturn.
They are
ZFX
PDN
JBM
ALL.

You can go short with your normal trading account using put warrants.

 

[tech/a]

Kauri.
Thanks Yes I was just labelling wave counts more so than the correct ABC counts.

I presume the longer possible targets are 1.618 X "A" and 2 X "A".
In a 5 wave corrective move---- not possible to call until wave "A" exceeded?

Is that miners software? If so.
How does it differ to AGET?

Still learning good to post up and recieve feedback.
Dubious--not on all of them though. Still its an exercise only.

 

[MichaelD]

As this is the topic and incase some would be interested in how I would have/or now play it (I havent gone short as I dont have a CFD account--will be interesting in how costly this will have been by not having one.).

Just curious - have you ever shorted anything, Tech?

 

[Kauri]

Kauri.
Thanks Yes I was just labelling wave counts more so than the correct ABC counts.

I presume the longer possible targets are 1.618 X "A" and 2 X "A".
In a 5 wave corrective move---- not possible to call until wave "A" exceeded?

Is that miners software? If so.
How does it differ to AGET?

Tech,
Min = 0.618 of A subtracted from top of B..
Typ = 1.000 "" ""
Max = 1.618 "" ""
Software is Miners DT.. is totally different to AGet... will send a mail later on re differences...
Kauri

 

[tech/a]

Michael.

No.Hasnt been the need.

 

[Atomic5]

2 dead cats and counting????

You normally only get one dead cat bounce before the market capitulates into a downward trend.



(btw - Tommorrow GM who have delved into the subprime market release their data and that apparently isn't going to be good either.)

 

[dubiousinfo]

You can go short with your normal trading account using put warrants.

Dubious--not on all of them though. Still its an exercise only.

Not all stocks, but you can on the 4 stocks you mentioned ZFX, PDN, JBM & ALL.

 

[tech/a]

Thanks D.

 

[MichaelD]

Michael.

No.Hasnt been the need.

So would you backtest and/or paper trade first, or just jump right in?

 

[tech/a]

I would and will use the principals of Money management which I know.
I will trade in a discretionary manner.

The analysis is not something that can be coded and tested.
being a combination of VSA/Elliot and other conventional analysis.

I intend to trade in this manner when my long term systems fail due to market conditions not seen during testing. When this occures I will exit all positions and trade in a discretionary manner.

Have already traded this way in a very rough form of how I intend to trade in the future,without the help of software and with poor knowledge of Elliot Wave---managed more return in % than T/T for the 8 mths I trialled the ideas.Without shorting.
A way to go yet but when up and running I wont be punting.

 

[coyotte]

Quote : Tech/A

(Strategies for those long)

As an exercise for interest only.

As this is the topic and in case some would be interested in how I would have/or now play it (I havent gone short as I dont have a CFD account--will be interesting in how costly this will have been by not having one).

I would be short on 4 of the weakest movers from the last downturn.
They are
ZFX
PDN
JBM
ALL
I would have "margined" at 2:1 (Im conservative.)
Stop would be yesterdays high plus 2 ticks.
Exit at around 4765 ish on the XJO

UNQUOTE:


Just another approach to SHORTS:

1: First I check the ASX site for allowable SHORTS --- U will find a list with % of the available loan used.

2: Selecting from the ones with the highest %, I then check to see if they are still near their HIGHS.

3: From that list bring in your T/A --- Gaps etc


Shorted: SUN and WOR using this approach last week --- still holding the two positions.



Cheers

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

I would and will use the principals of Money management which I know.
I will trade in a discretionary manner.

The analysis is not something that can be coded and tested.
being a combination of VSA/Elliot and other conventional analysis.

I intend to trade in this manner when my long term systems fail due to market conditions not seen during testing. When this occures I will exit all positions and trade in a discretionary manner.

Have already traded this way in a very rough form of how I intend to trade in the future,without the help of software and with poor knowledge of Elliot Wave---managed more return in % than T/T for the 8 mths I trialled the ideas.Without shorting.
A way to go yet but when up and running I wont be punting.

Tech,
I see you have discovered intuition.
I closed a long position today counter to my original trade plan because I see weakness, and I protected capital. For me it is the only way - protecting capital on the weak side.
Snake

 

[tech/a]

Snake
Well not entirely.And I dont classify the analysis as Intiuition.

All of my longterm Systems portfolio's are still open (3) of.
All hemorrhaging.

 

[nizar]

Snake
Well not entirely.And I dont classify the analysis as Intiuition.

All of my longterm Systems portfolio's are still open (3) of.
All hemorrhaging.

Tech.
If you are expecting the end of this bullrun, then why not close off your trades in your long term systems, rather then let them suffer, ummm, even more "haemorrhaging"...