PANIC!!!!! (Strategies for those long)

[wavepicker]

A monthly long term chart,

my 2c worth

Cheers

 

[nizar]

Wow 4192 is a LONG LONG way down.
The most bearish forecast/prediction iv seen.

Any 3000s out there?

 

[Magdoran]

Wow 4192 is a LONG LONG way down.
The most bearish forecast/prediction iv seen.

Any 3000s out there?

Indeed Nizar,


This is what we keep saying may be the case. We think this is quite possibly a major correction. But we need to see it confirmed in the coming price action.

I actually referred to the 4178.48 target level in the XAO analysis thread as the current worst case crash target by 18 July 2007, if fit pans out that way. A lot depends on how this tend plays out. The first counter trend will tell us a lot about the cycle down. Our projections are not far off each other’s work through entirely different methodologies…

So wavepicker and I can imagine a correction all the way to this level if the major bear trend comes to fruition, then a consolidation as per wavepicker’s chart for the wave 4, then a struggling 5th wave. But this campaign before a bullish resumption may take a couple of years… think about how long this bull market has lasted, and how long the last correction lasted post the 1999-2000 high…

So this is certainly a possibility if you look in the monthly chart. We’ve been studying this for months now… But nothing is certain, we could be dead wrong.

It is way too early to call at this point.


Regards


Magdoran

 

[wavepicker]

Wow 4192 is a LONG LONG way down.
The most bearish forecast/prediction iv seen.

Any 3000s out there?

It's 30%. We had a 50% correction in 1987, 24% correction in 2002/3. The DJIA corrected almost 39% between 1999 and 2003.

Anything is possible

 

[lesm]

wavepicker,

Interesting chart, saw a prediction for the XAO on the ET forum at 4000 tonight.

Looks like the guys over there have been watching the Asian, Aust and NZ markets very closely to try and get a feel for things. Could be an interesting open over there tonight.

They have started up a Black Monday thread. The 12th since 2002.

Oh, nizar one the guys over there did make a joke about the XAO hitting 3000, don't think he was serious though. Now wouldn't that sort out the who the survivors are going to be.

cheers

 

[Kauri]

A monthly long term chart,

my 2c worth

Cheers

HI wave picker,
It's probably the late hour but I am having trouble reconciling the green W4 on your chart at around the 2700 mark. Where am I going wrong??
Thanks
Kauri

 

[MichaelD]

Why have you waited until now to go short?
Your entry gave No entry signals until now?

Because of the strict limit set on Portfolio HEAT in my short term trading system. The system needs to close existing positions before it will allow me to open new ones, long or short. Today was the day when I closed off the last of my longs in the system, thus allowing new positions to be taken as of tomorrow.

In regards to trading signals, over the last 2 weeks or so I've been noticing more and more stronger and more consistent short signals, but have been taking the long signals exclusively with real money.

 

[Kimosabi]

I can see the All Ords going down to between 3000 - 4000

The reason for this, is since 2003(Easy Money - Low Interest Rates) the All Ords has surged past what the historical All Ords Trading Envelope should be.

Don't believe it can happen, check out the 10yr Nikkei Graph.

I have this horrible feeling(and I don't think I'm alone) that the US is going to go through the same Massive Asset Deflation that Japan experienced.

The US is screwed whatever they do, it's called too much debt.

 

[wavepicker]

HI wave picker,
It's probably the late hour but I am having trouble reconciling the green W4 on your chart at around the 2700 mark. Where am I going wrong??
Thanks
Kauri

Apologies Kauri, it was late at night and my attention to detail is lousy. Green wave 1 should start after 87 crash. Where I have marked th green waves, they should be blue until 2002 high. have re atached chart

cheers

 

[tech/a]

Waves.
Back to the dark ages---"Super Cycle".

Thanks for the chart/s,(The altered ones) was going to ask about alternation but note you have it marked.So waiting to see the corrective move play out.
Highly likely to be an initial ABC but developing into a 5 wave 1st leg of a (Possibly) 3 wave ABC Corrective move.

If so this is likely to take months quite possibly years before 6000 is seen again.
Whats your take on time Waves?

 

[wintermute]

This chart was just a join the dots exercise and it was a rather forced join the dots at that honestly I have no idea what I'm doing just thought I'd put it up, feel free to ignore



Tony.

 

[money tree]

4150 is 50% fibb retracement of 2700 to 6000

 

[money tree]

5 yrs before the XAO hits 6000-----I've got that archived----classic.

so last week you were sarcasticly laughing at my bold call, and this week you are claiming it as your own?

If so this is likely to take months quite possibly years before 6000 is seen again.

 

[tech/a]

Tree
Still laughing at 5 yrs.
Think thats un-- likely. Dont know how long yet not enough info to work from---yet.

Hows the identification af a bear market going?
Your analysis is always rivveting.

 

[coyotte]

Tech/A

Is that "TradeGuider" software you are using in the last post?

If so, what is your opinion of it for the Oz market?

Cheers

 

[wavepicker]

Waves.
Back to the dark ages---"Super Cycle".

Thanks for the chart/s,(The altered ones) was going to ask about alternation but note you have it marked.So waiting to see the corrective move play out.
Highly likely to be an initial ABC but developing into a 5 wave 1st leg of a (Possibly) 3 wave ABC Corrective move.

If so this is likely to take months quite possibly years before 6000 is seen again.
Whats your take on time Waves?

No worries tech. Have not had much time to scratch my ass lately, been doing everything in a hurry, between working a fulltime job and trading my account in this correction. I am sure you know what I mean.

I am just looking at the big picture here of where we have been and where we MIGHT be going. I don't know if my degrees of trend are correct, but at this juncture it probably matter little as the trend is down.
EW provides some good guidelines but no certainties. But putting that aside we know the Law of Alternation does crop up quite often in charts. If we had a 'sharp correction in 1987, then the most probable result would be a "sideways move" in the coming years, which is what I would favour. Similar to what the DJIA did in the 1970's. By sideways move I mean any of the family sideways corrections ie, some sort of triangle, a regular flat, an irregular flat(which would result in a new unorthodox high), or a combination of all either of these. No one can tell at this stage.

Totally agree that most likely a larger abc would be playing out in the first leg of this correction. Probably similar to what Gold did in it's first move down last May. I would hazard to guess that this larger wave a of the abc down might be a choppy affair. But after wave b, wave c will be a capitulation style move down similar to the move post Sep11 2001(wave c’s are akin to wave 3’s). But we can study that more later as I believe it’s quite a long way off. How long will we take to get back to 6000? Cannot answer this( I like to look at one move at a time), suffice to say that I think this leg down may take the rest of the year to play out and some of next year. I think we will retest the highs thereafter in the rally that follows, but it will probably take the market as much time to move back up as it did down if not longer. You do the sums

However just focusing on the current move, it should find support at the base or apex of the last contracting wave 4 triangle(wave 4 of one less degree of trend) that preceded this last leg up(May correction of last year) which is approx 5000. I would label that was the close to the completion of wave A. Before then though I believe we will get a small rally (perhaps at 5500).

But getting a bit ahead of things ATM

Cheers

 

[tech/a]

Tech/A

Is that "TradeGuider" software you are using in the last post?

If so, what is your opinion of it for the Oz market?

Cheers

No its Marketcast 5 min tick chart.(Actually the charting package Prospecta).
You can google the 2

Tradeguider---I have it and like it but still looking at best practice usage.
Too much to explain here.(its good for all markets including Futures).

 

[nizar]

This rebound is the last chance to get rid of those longs?
And an opportunity to go short?

 

[Dr Doom]

Pump & dump by the insto's. Classic bull trap today. Lots of data coming out in the US this week, and after the ISM result it's not looking too good.

 

[CanOz]

This rebound is the last chance to get rid of those longs?
And an opportunity to go short?

I agree, in all the analysis that we've seen, they all call for a corrective move down. So thats usually a three wave move right, the second wave is the bounce. Is this the way you see it Nizar?

Cheers,