PANIC!!!!! (Strategies for those long)

[cuttlefish]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

He also will no doubt have the effect of scaring little investors into panic selling. No doubt he will buy back in whilst others are selling. Yes, he does give a lot of money away, but so do a lot of other people and I commend him for that.
Anyway, clearly here lets agree to disagree.
DYOR

You're thinking in terms of price rather than buying assets - buffets philosophy is about buying assets so manipulating price wouldn't be at the forefront of his mind. Understanding the different between an asset and a stock price is a great starter to wealth generation.

Happy to agree to differ though (now that I've had the last word lol )

 

[Dr Doom]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Re Buffet - if actions speak louder than words, has he gone short the $US again, after getting his timing wrong last time?. Also, while it's hard to argue with his record, is he really prepared for a real downturn ie I think he has a lot of exposure to consumer discretionary type stocks who usually take the brunt of recessionary climates.

 

[nizar]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Re Buffet - if actions speak louder than words, has he gone short the $US again, after getting his timing wrong last time?. Also, while it's hard to argue with his record, is he really prepared for a real downturn ie I think he has a lot of exposure to consumer discretionary type stocks who usually take the brunt of recessionary climates.

When you have that much money it doesnt really matter if you lose a billion or two once in a while. Yeh analysts argued he wasnt wrong about the USD last time, just early, but in this game its EXACTLY the same thing!!

 

[TheAbyss]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Well i am over this. I am burying my head in the sand for a week then re evaluating. 63% of my holdings are now red.

I will stick to research and educating myself while this unfolds.

Interesting fact: China market cap = $1.3 Trillion USD and yet the first day of this correction reduced the US market cap by $1.5 trillion USD. (Source US Squawkbox)

 

[Halba]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Hi abyss. At least the pace of the declines is slowing for us both. I have been monstered by this correction.

Bit down.

 

[TheAbyss]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Hi abyss. At least the pace of the declines is slowing for us both. I have been monstered by this correction.

Bit down.

I am feeling your pain. What do you do? Sell at a loss and lock it in or hold and ride it out? I have opted to ride it out for now. Concern with this is that if you sell now you can buy back in on the way back up and convert the loss to a gain instead of waiting to break even later on. However how do you pick it? Unless you have the skills and talents that are required you are playing follow the leader. I am just not that clever so i would probably end up getting back in where the SP's are now anyway so i am staying put and burying my head in the sand.

 

[noirua]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Aussie retail sales figures are out in about 25 minutes.

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Hi abyss. At least the pace of the declines is slowing for us both. I have been monstered by this correction.

Bit down.

Where are Julia and tech/a getting stuck into this guy when you need them?

 

[tech/a]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Sorry been in meetings since 7.30am

Havent read the posts.
Well the markets not telling me any different to Yesterday.
Not good! No "Buying Bargains" evident--serious players arent seeing value this side of the market.

Its very possible in hindsite this stalling will be seen as the last opportunity for some to have minimised loss.
its up to the individual and their plan---if they have one.

 

[moses]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Sorry been in meetings since 7.30am

Havent read the posts.
Well the markets not telling me any different to Yesterday.
Not good! No "Buying Bargains" evident--serious players arent seeing value this side of the market.

Its very possible in hindsite this stalling will be seen as the last opportunity for some to have minimised loss.
its up to the individual and their plan---if they have one.

Hi tech/a

I'm interested in your pov, but am trying to calibrate.

You trade the chart, not the stock...right? That is, you ignore the fundamentals in the sense that even a stock like BHP is just 3 letters in sequence, and your interest in them is purely technical analysis of how the charts indicate the stock will move.

But BLG...well, you admitted the other day you bought and will hold BLG because your physicist son recommended it on the basis of its technology...in other words, you bought it on fundamentals and expect to profit irrespective of wider market performance.

So...were we to asses the value of your comment for trading (and thats our choice and responsibility), would it not be fair to say that your comments were intended to apply to stock bought purely on a technical basis, and that comments like the above have limited application to stock bought for more fundamental reasons? Stock like BLG, or perhaps some of our favourite mining stocks.

 

[nizar]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Hi tech/a

I'm interested in your pov, but am trying to calibrate.

You trade the chart, not the stock...right? That is, you ignore the fundamentals in the sense that even a stock like BHP is just 3 letters in sequence, and your interest in them is purely technical analysis of how the charts indicate the stock will move.

But BLG...well, you admitted the other day you bought and will hold BLG because your physicist son recommended it on the basis of its technology...in other words, you bought it on fundamentals and expect to profit irrespective of wider market performance.

So...were we to asses the value of your comment for trading (and thats our choice and responsibility), would it not be fair to say that your comments were intended to apply to stock bought purely on a technical basis, and that comments like the above have limited application to stock bought for more fundamental reasons? Stock like BLG, or perhaps some of our favourite mining stocks.

Excellent question.
It'll be interesting how he tackles this one.
Im looking 4ward to it.

 

[Magdoran]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Excellent question.
It'll be interesting how he tackles this one.
Im looking 4ward to it.

Nizar,


Please clear your PM box if you want to receive a reply...


Mag

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Wont this see money go back into real estate if it goes bad? Money was pulled out of real estate the minute last years slow period was over end of August 2006.

Not if we get a credit tightening in which case inability to borrow gets rid of a large chunk of home buyers. Needless to say, collapsing demand isn't exactly bullish for RE prices.

How likely is a real credit tightening? Judging by the US subprime lender implosion and what seems to be an unwinding of the Yen carry trade, we're seeing the beginning right now. The big question being how far it goes.

I could be wrong of course so DYOR.

 

[nizar]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Nizar,


Please clear your PM box if you want to receive a reply...


Mag

Sorry Mag.
All cleared now.

 

[tech/a]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Hi tech/a

I'm interested in your pov, but am trying to calibrate.

You trade the chart, not the stock...right? That is, you ignore the fundamentals in the sense that even a stock like BHP is just 3 letters in sequence, and your interest in them is purely technical analysis of how the charts indicate the stock will move.

But BLG...well, you admitted the other day you bought and will hold BLG because your physicist son recommended it on the basis of its technology...in other words, you bought it on fundamentals and expect to profit irrespective of wider market performance.

So...were we to asses the value of your comment for trading (and thats our choice and responsibility), would it not be fair to say that your comments were intended to apply to stock bought purely on a technical basis, and that comments like the above have limited application to stock bought for more fundamental reasons? Stock like BLG, or perhaps some of our favourite mining stocks.

Historically even through the fall of 1929 had you bought and held stocks without a catastrophic demise of the company (IE,you held a portfolio of stocks)you would have profited in the longterm.

Certainly generally with the larger caps a buy and hold will return far better than bank interest in the longterm,and even outperforming Property.

So to my posts on the topic here PANIC.

I instigated the post from past experience that there would be many here in the situation described in post#1 on this thread.
The analysis is based short term---whats happening NOW---what happened yesterday relative to today and what that price action is likely to indicate in price action in the future.

So its applicable to any stock held for whatever reason.Longterm investment,short term speculative,Technically purchased/Fundamentally,whatever. The analysis is on the XJO as in times of high volatility (And thats disappeared for the time being---so whats that indicate??) those in the position of post#1 are most interested in What is going to happen NOW.

What people do with the information is entirely up to them.

I have a longterm portfolio as you know.Those interested can see how I'm trading that by loging on to Reefcap techtrader site.
I dont hold any short positions---I dont have a CFD account --YET and I dont have the time to trade very short term.

I have 1 long--medium/shortish term position I took yesterday and I mentioned it on ASF JML site,(other than BLG) its an initial position I'm hoping to add more 2 if the market
(a) shows consistent support---not evident .Little indication (Double bottom at 5787 on 28/2) all I see so far.
(b) shows continued weakness---not evident.---but continued ability of sellers to keep price from rising out of tight ranges has me leaning strongly this way.

So regardless of reason or timeframe the analysis on XJO will have some interest---more to some than others.

By now most have lost WHY this thread was started and my motivation behind it---its still the same.
SEE post # 1

Hope this helps clarify.

Nizar---how'd I go???

 

[ducati916]

Reality check time.

On a purely fundamental basis, the ASX contains innumerable speccy trash that will be positively crushed and go bankrupt if a bear market does arrive.

Why?

Simply because they have no earnings, and thus cannot fund working capital unless they can raise finance......

*sell debt........no chance in hell.
*sell equity.......no chance in hell
*some form of government handout........not enough, will simply delay the final day of reckoning.

Then you have those with earnings of some description. At the onset of bear markets, funny accounting outs. Some will be ok, some won't.

The overvalued, but financially sound companies, will weather the storm, but lose capitalization.

This scenario is IF this develops into a bear market. Half the globe may well join in just for the fun of it. Markets as has now become rather painfully obvious are highly correlated.

If you are holding speccy ****e, do not break your initial entry rules.
Do not break your rules
Do not break your rules.

Live to fight another day baby.

jog on
d998

 

[Knobby22]

I'm actually up on my portfolio since the dip, and that is all it is at this point.
To be a correction, you need a bigger fall than this, about 10%.

I have decided to be prudent and reduced two positions so as to have spare cash but otherwise am just keeping my options open.

 

[tech/a]

If you are holding speccy ****e, do not break your initial entry rules.
Do not break your rules
Do not break your rules.

So as a fundamental trader you only have ENTRY RULES??
Have Rules you know will return consistent profit.
Have Rules you know will return consistent profit.

Rules in isolation are as useful as a hole in a bucket.

 

[ducati916]

So as a fundamental trader you only have ENTRY RULES??
Have Rules you know will return consistent profit.
Have Rules you know will return consistent profit.

Rules in isolation are as useful as a hole in a bucket.

Position rules;
*entry
*exit
*position size
*adjustments

Your whole kit-and-caboodle

jog on
d998

 

[theasxgorilla]

To be a correction, you need a bigger fall than this, about 10%.

I expect we'll get closer to that 10% drop you talk about yet. We're through 40-day MA on the XJO/XAO and still a long way from the 200-day MA. Price has fallen below the extreme of Wednesday and seems to be continuing down.