PANIC!!!!! (Strategies for those long)

[Magdoran]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

I've heard this a few times this bull run already...tell me WHY it's different this time? Not a new set of negative circumstances (before it was oil, now it's Shanghai etc.)...the REAL reason.

The real reason is market cycles. Market cycle up, then they correct – it is the timing and magnitude which is elusive.

This is just a normal cycle. I suspect it is a major wave 3 in a bull market, looking for a choppy wave 4 then a resumption into a high.

The commodity bull cycle may be waning now, and if so it will be a catalyst. If not, it may also just be correcting too… the trick is to interpret the pattern of trends (time and price), isn’t it?


Mag
P.S. maybe it's just that there are more sellers than buyers???

 

[wayneL]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

I think all you guys and gals are wimps, unless the all ords falls below 5500 there is no reason to panic.

Just take 2 bex and lie back and relax,

You are going to develop some dreadful disease like stroke, heart attack or something worse otherwise.

Its only money and on my analysis your not going to lose it all this time.

Garpal

It's not a case of wimps, it really depends on how the trader trades, and to what end.

Buffet style investors shouldn't really be batting an eyelid. Income traders will be seeking to advantage themselves from the move.

Horses for courses

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

It pisses me off when there are so many negative posts as it really freaks out the novice investors.

One guy above just put his toe in the market on Monday and is in turmoil as a result.

There is no evidence on charts or fundamentals that we are in a Bear market.

I struggle to find a reason why this retracement has occurred.

Lets keep the market in perspective.

Garpal

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Buffet style investors shouldn't really be batting an eyelid.

Of course they should be, it's a dip/ correction. This is when they should be most active. I'm no buffett investor, but after/ during this correction is the time where I will be setting up my long termers, not before like some people have decided to do on this forum.

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

I struggle to find a reason why this retracement has occurred.

Lets keep the market in perspective.

As Homer Simpson would say, "The two sweetest words in the English language... 'De'," and, "'fault'".

 

[wayneL]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

It pisses me off when there are so many negative posts as it really freaks out the novice investors.

One guy above just put his toe in the market on Monday and is in turmoil as a result.

There is no evidence on charts or fundamentals that we are in a Bear market.

I struggle to find a reason why this retracement has occurred.

Lets keep the market in perspective.

Garpal

Garpal,

It's part of the landscape of markets. Novices will learn or die. and this will be an excellent learning experience. I was full time trading less than 1 year when 911 happened... and I traded through 1987.

Both indispensible experiences

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

What were interest rates like in 87 Wayne?

 

[Kauri]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

From MarketWatch tonight...

But according to Marc Pado, the Wednesday rebound was not convincing enough.
"If Tuesday was just an aberration, then we should have gained back half of the loss," he said. "Being up 50 points when we should have been up 200 or more means that the economic data and investor sentiment was worth 150 points of downside pressure."
On Thursday, major Asian markets, including China, Japan and Hong Kong, ended lower as investors focused on developments in Shanghai, where shares gave back about two-thirds of gains from the previous day.
There was also renewed concern that the yen carry trade, which has been a major source of funding for investors globally, might be subsiding.
In addition, rumors that a big lender was in distress were floating around the market, according to research firm Action Economics.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

It pisses me off when there are so many negative posts as it really freaks out the novice investors.

They're going to learn the sound of bears clutching at straws eventually anyway...it might as well be sooner rather than later

 

[misterS]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

China will become the undeniable world economic monster at some stage, but the tipping point is hard to spot and involves complex transitions. The market will want to anticipate it, act as though it has occurred at some point, several times, and when it stops stepping back from that position - it has happened.

With a working hypothesis that signs of the US slowdown, whether pre-recession, or soft landing might have warranted a bit of a correction earlier, this ripple is just one of the early transitional grumbles - a delay in the impact of the otherwise expected effect. The uncertainty as well as the manifestation of the same market psychology on USA, means maybe we should continue to regard the USA economy as the leading indicator for a while longer? Recognising of course, our miners have a disproportionate interest in China regardless of when they are cemeted into top spot - and commodity fundamentals are still pretty bloody good.

The action everyone loves in a bull market, the huge liquidity and sheer size and relative flexibility of the world economy makes the market pretty resilient and would probably need a proper crash to really quench the markets.

...just an amateur's observation...people with real money, and somewhere else profitable to put it will probably have a better idea

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Mag
P.S. maybe it's just that there are more sellers than buyers???

Keeping it simple...a man after my own heart .

 

[Kauri]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Early yet, but a little ominous???

 

[wayneL]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

What were interest rates like in 87 Wayne?

I don't know exactly, higher than now.

Relevance?

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

...just an amateur's observation...people with real money, and somewhere else profitable to put it will probably have a better idea

With the way world markets dropped in concert (to varying degrees) that will be quite some trick...finding somewhere else profitable. One of those "non-correlated" commodities that WayneL mentions, perhaps?

 

[Magdoran]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

It pisses me off when there are so many negative posts as it really freaks out the novice investors.

One guy above just put his toe in the market on Monday and is in turmoil as a result.

There is no evidence on charts or fundamentals that we are in a Bear market.

I struggle to find a reason why this retracement has occurred.

Lets keep the market in perspective.

Garpal

Are you serious?

Respectfully, you can’t see the pattern then can you? (I can see it clearly in my charts).

Have a look at all the market tops back to the 1929 crash and study the charts. Then have a look at the current pattern and see what you make of it. That is one serious down day after an almost vertical blow off move. Just look at the pattern. Look at the US markets, the DAX, the CAC, the FTSE. Look at the commodities. Look at the Yen. Really look at the yen. Tell me the NASDAQ, DOW and S&P 500 aren’t ending diagonals.

Markets can’t sustain vertical moves for long. Look in the weekly and monthly charts and have a look at the momentum by putting ascending trend lines on the trend. You’ll get the idea…

A correction is normal, and if this is a major wave 3, and you know your Elliott Wave theory, you will have a fairly good idea where this might go to. Using other methods might actually reveal an even deeper pull back too…

You’d then expect a very choppy wave 4 for a long time, maybe months, but if it’s proportional with the drive up, could be chopping around for a long time… and the 5th wave might be a weak struggling trend up – something to think about if you’re caught long at the wrong time, hence caution is paramount in my view. Newbie investors should be cautious in these times. Very cautious.

The prevailing pattern in a lot of commodity stocks is a classic ending diagonal, often characterised by violent (savage) reversals.

If Australia is a commodity driven market, and the commodities are sliding (except perhaps nickel and oil – but even nickel is looking terminal), do the math.

But of course this could all be totally wrong, and the heavens will open up, and “Bling” we’ll hit the magic 7000 tomorrow, won’t we?


Regards


Magdoran

 

[Magdoran]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Keeping it simple...a man after my own heart .

You like that! I do too! Mwahahaha

 

[Magdoran]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

I don't know exactly, higher than now.

Relevance?

You can’t compare straight rates with straight rates, a whole host of modifications are needed since the whole financial structure was so different then…

 

[wayneL]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

You can’t compare straight rates with straight rates, a whole host of modifications are needed since the whole financial structure was so different then…

It's ironical really, It IS different this time, yet it isn't different this time.

 

[noirua]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

The London FTSE Index has fallen 115.9 to 6,055.6, down 1.88%. Xstrata have fallen 99p to £22.96.

 

[wayneL]

Re: PANIC!!!!!

Anyone who thinks there should be no consternation about the market should read this:

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/01032007/325/nyse-imposes-trading-curbs-stocks-fall.html

NYSE imposes trading curbs as stocks fall

Corrects to programme selling from programme buying in final paragraph.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The New York Stock Exchange said on Thursday it instituted downside trading curbs as U.S. stocks fell sharply in early trading.

The U.S. market's fall followed a sharp sell-off in equities on Tuesday. On Thursday, renewed inflation worries and a rise in the yen stirred concern that investors were being forced to unwind carry trades.

The New York Stock Exchange Composite Index <.NYA>, which is used to determine when to begin trading curbs, was down 159.75 points, or 1.8 percent, at 8964.79.

The trading curbs require that all programme selling of S&P 500 stocks must be on an up-tick.

"They" are worried.