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Palladium

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Palladium hits new high amid strike threat
Palladium hit a new record high overnight as the threat of strikes in the South African mining industry raised fresh concerns about a supply deficit for the metal, while gold held steady as the US dollar slipped on signs of a US-China trade deal.

Palladium hit a peak of $US1,536.50 per ounce, and was up 2.5 per cent at $US1,534.50, with the autocatalyst metal having soared more than 80 per cent since mid-August on a sustained supply shortage.

At least 15 mining firms in South Africa, home to the world's biggest platinum group metals deposits accounting for over 90 per cent of global output, have received notices of strikes next week in support of colleagues at Sibanye-Stillwater who downed tools over wages and job cuts.

"The fundamental issue with palladium is any strike will drive prices through the roof because there is a shortfall with normal production, so any collapse of production will support prices," said Miguel Perez-Santalla, vice president of Heraeus Metal Management in New York. More....
 
Fiat Recall Leaves Palladium Buyers Bracing for ‘Supply Shock’

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV’s recall of almost 900,0000 gasoline-fueled vehicles could spur additional demand for the palladium market that’s already reeling from shortages.

Replacing the catalytic converters in these vehicles would require an additional 77,000 ounces of palladium, said Miguel Perez-Santalla, sales and marketing manager at refiner Heraeus Metals New York LLC. Prices of the metal that’s used to curb greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles have been climbing to records this year as producers struggle to keep up with demand.


“This eventually will be a bit of a supply shock,” said Maxwell Gold, director of investment strategy at Aberdeen Standard Investments, which oversees $736 billion. “Overall, this does paint a very positive picture of just growing emission standards globally, particularly in the U.S. for palladium and gasoline engines.” More...
 
rederob said:
Panoramic has PGM (palladium & platinum) resources, but who else has I do not know.
Click to expand...

Not trying to cross advertise my Stocks …… but speaking of Platinum and Palladium …

This morning I posted up a link to Professor Ken Collerson talking about the AMG tenements in Cloncurry. (See AMG thread if interested)

Basically he stated that the Palladium and Platinum surface samples he collected around the "Golden Mile" tenements at Mt Freda have the highest levels he has ever seen ….. I hold AMG so am obviously interested when they make those kind of statements!

As @refined silver mention above, Africa and Russia are the main suppliers of the metals so it would be a huge boon for any Aussie Co to find something substantial.
 
Reactions: Ann
barney said:
Thanks for that Miner.

The Market Depth on ZIM looks pretty crazy … then I read that "Impala Platinum BV" owns 87% of the company …… MD could be a tad illiquid
Click to expand...
You are welcome Barney .
Yes, the volume of sales is rather insignificant and inconsistent with rising prices.
 
I found an ETF for physical Palladium. It is not listed in the AFR that I could find. Just came across it by accident when I was screening for stocks. It was launched in 2008. Well kept secret I guess, did anyone know about this? Am I the last to know?

ETPMPD - ETFS Physical Palladium


 
Good research Ann
I was unaware of this and now thanks for your clue. It appears in one year ETPMPD has gone up almost double. I did not follow up Palladium until stepped into this thread.https://www.etfsecurities.com.au/product/etpmpd
The fund size is only $1.9 M. So how much variation it can make on market but it did whatsoever for small purcahsers for sure.
Whosoever had this hidden low volume stock, definitely have done pretty well.
 
Reactions: Ann
Palladium just took a tumble overnight. It may be related to this...

The chief executive of Anglo-American says the rapid rise in the price of palladium is a “bubble” but prices will stay high until carmakers begin substituting the metal in their catalysts.


As carmakers launch new models they may consider replacing palladium with the cheaper precious metal platinum in their catalytic converters, Mark Cutifani told the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit.


“It is a bubble but . . . as new models get developed in the auto industry, adjustments will take place and maybe there will be some substitution there,” Mr Cutifani said. “Palladium will stick around these sorts of levels for a while because the cost of changing is probably not worth the change. But over time it will change and platinum will come roaring back.” More...

 
Bit of a fall from grace for the ETFs Physical Palladium



....and the daily Palladium price with a bit of a bounce at the close from last week.

 
Palladium Sees Wildest Price Swings Since 2015

Palladium futures tumbled, spurring the wildest price swings since late 2015 as investors turn sour on the precious metal.

The commodity used mostly in auto catalysts has been a profitable trade as supply shortages boosted prices of near-term contracts. That gave investors the incentive to sell futures closer to delivery and buy those that are further along the curve as producers struggle to meet demand from carmakers. That incentive has narrowed this year as supply concerns ease. More..
 
That’s great but if you bought the dip there, you would be up about 45% 6 months later...

Like the correction yesterday.
 
On Friday, spot palladium was 6.9 per cent higher at $US2,472.80 per ounce having earlier surged past the $US2,500 an ounce level to hit a record peak of $US2,537.06. The auto-catalyst metal was also pacing for its best week since December 2001, surging more than 16 per cent.

“This is a structural deficit market that has been brewing for years and we don’t really see an increase in supply on the horizon to quell that,” said Ryan McKay, a commodity strategist at TD Securities.

Palladium has constantly been breaking records, rising more than 50 per cent last year, on a sustained supply squeeze and expectations for stricter emission laws across the globe.
 
Platinum has now broken out over the $1000 resistance as well. I have heard a bit of talk about platinum being substituted for palladium but the cost to change over not currently being worth it compared to the very small cost, in terms of Palladium per car, that goes into catalytic converters.
 
Sprott blog:
https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-magic-palladium-bullet-in-2020.html
...this move in palladium is NOT being "driven by speculators" who are "rushing to profit" and "blowing a bubble"...
Click to expand...
 
palladium is on a decent sell here, sentiment has been overtly skewed to bids

stop 2052's front month con
 
structural move, relative size, doesnt discount a move further north, does allow that the bounce is over but i suspect a play within a play, zonal stuff, small size pos with risk defined, target toward 1837 front month, breaking that levels requires adding to the sell if the sell itself becomes impulsive

 
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