OZL - Oz Minerals

[nathanblack]

when suspension is over i expect price to drop to pre takeover price level of low 30cents. maybe less give they need urgent financing now. if it goes below 30c i still see value there but high risk too. what are others views on sp post trading halt?

how important is that 1asset on the rocket range? surely the chances of a rival bid by an aussie company is still a chance or a revised bid minus that asset by the chinese?

dont currently own but would consider if the high risk was balanced by a potential high reward. under 30cents i would consider because minmetals could take this asset out and make another offer of say 60cents or government handout?

 

[noco]

when suspension is over i expect price to drop to pre takeover price level of low 30cents. maybe less give they need urgent financing now. if it goes below 30c i still see value there but high risk too. what are others views on sp post trading halt?

how important is that 1asset on the rocket range? surely the chances of a rival bid by an aussie company is still a chance or a revised bid minus that asset by the chinese?

dont currently own but would consider if the high risk was balanced by a potential high reward. under 30cents i would consider because minmetals could take this asset out and make another offer of say 60cents or government handout?

Imho if OZL are placed in the hands of an administrator it could be the salavation of the company in light of Prominent hill copper and gold mine which has just come into production.

Commodity prices are on the rise, particularly copper.

I am personally optimistic the company could trade their way out if the banks show some compassion and leniency on their debt. Others may differ in opinion.

 

[lucifuge]

Imho if OZL are placed in the hands of an administrator it could be the salavation of the company in light of Prominent hill copper and gold mine which has just come into production.

Commodity prices are on the rise, particularly copper.

I am personally optimistic the company could trade their way out if the banks show some compassion and leniency on their debt. Others may differ in opinion.

I totally agree with you on this. I've been planning on saying it myself. The market is a funny place, stranger things happen. A bit on leniency now could realize huge benefits in future, economy-wise, job-wise etc etc. It aint done and dusted yet.

 

[jackson8]

Imho if OZL are placed in the hands of an administrator it could be the salavation of the company in light of Prominent hill copper and gold mine which has just come into production.

Commodity prices are on the rise, particularly copper.

I am personally optimistic the company could trade their way out if the banks show some compassion and leniency on their debt. Others may differ in opinion.

when has a bank ever shown any compassion or leniency
this even evades the goverment as they will be well aware of the consequences of prohibiting the takeover. and if they arent concerned about investors losing their money well imo neither will the banks be
any bank will only be concerned about cutting their own losses

 

[webguru]

Personally I am gobsmacked. Surely - I bought into OZL recently having reached the logical conclusion that the government has to act in light of how much were they bailing out other entities (including bloody banks)... why would they not help save one of the important australian miners, and instead let them slip into administration..? Where is the logic? Perhaps I was wrong - there is no logic... and to see that no other Australian miner would see value in OZ at such a low price, too! Or perhaps noone's got any money..?

 

[jman2007]

Imho if OZL are placed in the hands of an administrator it could be the salavation of the company in light of Prominent hill copper and gold mine which has just come into production.

I am personally optimistic the company could trade their way out if the banks show some compassion and leniency on their debt. Others may differ in opinion.

noco, if OZL go into administration the first in the pecking order will be the secured creditors and lenders. Even if there is anything left after this, the small shareholders will likely get very little if anything back. That whole process alone could take years to sort out - if it comes to that.

The banks will show no mercy here, if they think they can get their money back quicker and easier by putting OZL into admin, then that's what they'll do. On the othe hand, they may take the more prudent approach of extending the debt roll-over period if they think OZL can trade their way out of this, but I think ultimtaely it depends on whether or not the Chinese are interested in returning to the negotiating table.

 

[SGB]

Minmetals revives bid for OZ

Mar 29, 2009 (The Age - ABIX via COMTEX) -- OZMLF | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating --" Last-minute negotiations appear to have enabled a new takeover offer for struggling resources group OZ Minerals by Minmetals, after the Chinese entity had been banned due to national security concerns by the Australian Government. The new terms exclude the Prominent Hill asset, located within reach of a defence missile testing range. Unless OZ can finalise the transaction by 1 April, its crippling debt is likely to spell its end."

 

[UPKA]

Prominent Hill is worth $800m-$1b, with Minmetals' original offer at $2.6b, will the revised offer to be around $1-1.6b? I think BHP has low balled OZL $500m for Prominent Hill, now Barrack Gold has joint scene, hopefully with a bit of competition, we'll see a fairer value...

 

[gfresh]

Articles suggest minus Prominent Hill, revised offer could be close to 50c.

I'm suprised Minmetals wishes to persist through this, but I guess they are pretty keen on several of the other assets.

 

[noco]

Has anybody any idea what will happen to Prominent Hill?
Will it stay with OZL to continue operations?

If Minmetals is granted the remainder without Prominent Hill, perhaps the sale of the other assets may be enough for OZL to contiue!

 

[crayfish]

Politics at it's finest.. I thought Woomera hadn't been used for decades?

Yep. The govt is using this purely for political points. But it will backfire on Swan if OZ doesn't get an extension. Ammo for the libs re jobs...

Woomera has been used in the last decade: remember the detention centre = Another political point scoring excercise. Those boat people obviously weren't a risk to our national security after all! I mean would you put them at Woomera if they were????

I too am gobsmacked at this decision. As the Minotaur MD said, any Chinese tourist could drive the Stuart Hwy, take a tent out there and do what they wanted.

 

[matt1987]

if oz end up selling all assets other than prom hill to minmetals, will they get enough cash to pay off all of their debt ?

if this is the case, the result for the company may not be too bad, as prom hill is forcasting 200,000 ounces copper and 70,000 ounces gold a year from what i have read. producing that much gold would have to generate enough money to make the company profitable you would think.

 

[prawn_86]

producing that much gold would have to generate enough money to make the company profitable you would think.

Massive assumption there Matt.

What cost per ounce is that gold produced at? What other costs do they have? What if the gold price falls from where it is now? What if they dont reach their forecast production figures?

Its a bit too simple to say that "oh they are forecasting producing a lot, they must be making money"

 

[PBH]

I think the best case scenario for OZL shareholders would be the acceptance of any Minmetals offer, and the sale of Prominent Hill to BHP.

Just give up on the idea of OZL continuing to trade in any way, shape or form. Barring some incredible spike in commodity prices within the next couple of months (sure it CAN happen, but the odds aren't exactly good, to say the least...), it is all but a dead duck.

The key now is to get the best possible value for Prominent Hill. This will be very hard, as the Govt has virtually put BHP in a monopoly bidding position, by excluding ownership by foreign companies, in the name of protecting a 'sensitive' *cough* military testing area.

The existing $500 million offer (if indeed it even exists) is an incredible insult though. I wouldn't even call it low-ball. More like gutter-ball...

 

[nunthewiser]

um some ppl just dont get it hey

IF minmetals or WHOEVER buys out OZL on a full takeover it will not matter a toss what happens to prom hill ...... the takeover is exscatly that .they takeover your shares and they buy OZL from you ........OZL will belong to somone else and prominent hill proceeds will go to whomever buys it ...


i could be wrong , i am a nun after all

 

[Buster]

G'day Gfresh,

I thought Woomera hadn't been used for decades?

Certainly not as active as it has been, but there is still a surprising amount of 'work' being conducted at Woomera..

Cheers,

Buster

 

[nunthewiser]

um some ppl just dont get it hey

IF minmetals or WHOEVER buys out OZL on a full takeover it will not matter a toss what happens to prom hill ...... the takeover is exscatly that .they takeover your shares and they buy OZL from you ........OZL will belong to somone else and prominent hill proceeds will go to whomever buys it ...


i could be wrong , i am a nun after all

sorry guys i miss typed a meaning re

prominent hill proceeds will go to whomever buys it ...

i meant that prom hill proceeeds will go to whoever sells it .. which in this case is likely to be OZL,s creditors

 

[JTLP]

sorry guys i miss typed a meaning re




i meant that prom hill proceeeds will go to whoever sells it .. which in this case is likely to be OZL,s creditors

Smart Smart man...you don't sell 90% of your shares to Minmetals and hold out for the sale of Prominent Hill and get the other 10%! :

Glad I got stopped out of OXR at 3.20 back in the day...was cursing at the time! Now i'm like a pig in ****zen!

 

[UPKA]

Glad I got stopped out of OXR at 3.20 back in the day...was cursing at the time! Now i'm like a pig in ****zen!

doesn't really makes sense, are you saying u've made a wise decision by selling out 12mths ago? so u must've predicted the credit crunch too?

anyways, Minmetals is offering btw $1.6b to $2b cash for all except Prominent Hill copper and gold mine in Aust. I'm a bit unclear as to how the SP will hold up, Prominent Hill is valued btw $900m to $1.2b, which is around 40-50c.

 

[UPKA]

US$1.2b cash offer, not a bad deal. OZL said after they paid off their debt obligations, they'll have about $600m left over in cash, which is about 20c in current market cap. like i mentioned before, Prominent Hill is said to be "valued between $900m to $1.2b, which is around 40-50c". SP is currently trading at 54c - 20c (cash) = 34c on it's assets. It is undervalued, however we still need to factor in the risks that the deal won't go thru (either rejected by FIRB or Swan).