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Has anyone heard anything about an offer for Matarbe? Apparently if OZl sell Matarbe the Minmetals offer gets increased accordingly due to the increased cash on hand.
Basing this purely on a Sky Business item this morning so could be totally unfounded rumour. A small article here.
http://business.theage.com.au/business/oz-minerals-asset-sale-imminent-20090219-8cla.html
A number of issues at hand in my view,
Negatives
1. Banks need to defer there credit requirements on teh 27th of Feb
2. FIRB approval required
3. A lot of instos are bailing out while they can get something back on their investments hence the massive oversupply of sellers
Positives
1. Minmetals cash offer of 82.5 cents per share
2. Matarbe sale provides additional value
3. Surely the banks would extend terms on the basis of a cash opffer being on the table gioven Minmetals will assume all responsibility for the debt which they have stated in their offer document
4. FIRB approval should be approved on the bassis that if they dont the company goes into admninistration and may not resurface. At least OZl remains in situ as an employer and tax payer.
5. Minmetals have stated that they have the cash to complete the purchase via cash on hand and pre approved funds
6. What if BHP decide they dont like china circling their competitors whioch will reduce there market opportunities?
Any input would be welcome as there will be other positives and negatives i have not listed. Too late for me as i have bought in however am interested in thoughts.
Cheers
Some good progress to date.
Negatives
1. Banks need to defer there credit requirements on teh 27th of Feb - Completed. Only hurdle left is the FIRB and China approvals as the extension grant infers that the banks are happy with Minmetals assuming responsibility of debt. I am assuming shareholder approval also.
2. FIRB approval required -Yet to see a reason why approval wont be granted as these assets are tier two and not against the national interests (although the whole foreign investment process should be reviewed as we will all pay a price for this in time but thats another topic). Rio is a different story and may not get across the line but this will imo
3. A lot of instos are bailing out while they can get something back on their investments hence the massive oversupply of sellers. Buyers sellers ratio has improved dramatically.
Positives
1. Minmetals cash offer of 82.5 cents per share
2. Matarbe sale provides additional value - No sale news. May start to happen now that the debt issue has been cleared. This is on the basis that any potential bidders may have been biding their time on the chance a firesale may have been caused by a bank refusing to extend. Any bidder will now need to make an on market bid
3. Surely the banks would extend terms on the basis of a cash opffer being on the table gioven Minmetals will assume all responsibility for the debt which they have stated in their offer document - Correct
4. FIRB approval should be approved on the basis that if they dont the company goes into admninistration and may not resurface. At least OZl remains in situ as an employer and tax payer. - We shall see
5. Minmetals have stated that they have the cash to complete the purchase via cash on hand and pre approved funds- And have stated they will refinance the $1.2 billion debt which is why the banks extended. A further two weeks extension will be required for paperwork etc as outlined by Oz. Call it a bridging loan where time is the product.
6. What if BHP decide they dont like china circling their competitors which will reduce there market opportunities? - Yet to be seen however now that the finance question is out of the wy the odds have shortened although i am thnking BHP are hopeful of the FIRB saying no to the Rio Chinalco deal and picking up some Rio assets on the cheap.
All in all this is a lot closer to fruition than it was on monday and a lot of the risk has been removed hence the 25% SP increase since wednesday.