OXR - Oxiana Limited

treefrog said:

nothing untoward for mine - a good bounce off the strong 2yo support line at $2:50 is all I see - still a good entry @ $3 if you have faith in resources

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Triple daily average is untoward in itself, i'd say. Look at the yearly chart and see how many times it did 50,000,000+ in a day. I see 2.

Certainly a heavily traded stock - a number of times close to 50M+. I don't think we'll see it far below $3 again.

legs said:

Triple daily average is untoward in itself, i'd say. Look at the yearly chart and see how many times it did 50,000,000+ in a day. I see 2.

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125m late nov but had little trouble falling a further 35%
vol is significant but it cuts both ways - 50m bought means 50m sold ie owners holding 50m think it has more to lose.

treefrog said:

125m late nov but had little trouble falling a further 35%
vol is significant but it cuts both ways - 50m bought means 50m sold ie owners holding 50m think it has more to lose.

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The MAJORITY of mining stocks had LITTLE TROUBLE falling 35% too..But you didn't mention them...lolpmsl

legs said:

The MAJORITY of mining stocks had LITTLE TROUBLE falling 35% too..But you didn't mention them...lolpmsl

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fair comment legs but you are the one pushing the volume is good barrow - what OXR did was move virtually identically with the mining index (XMJ)whereas I think your point is that after solid volume trades it should do better - but maybe I am missing something in your posts

legs said:

Triple daily average is untoward in itself, i'd say. Look at the yearly chart and see how many times it did 50,000,000+ in a day. I see 2.

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Wow look at that head and shoulder pattern, should have realised it earlier....
Should have shorted it.

treefrog said:

fair comment legs but you are the one pushing the volume is good barrow - what OXR did was move virtually identically with the mining index (XMJ)whereas I think your point is that after solid volume trades it should do better - but maybe I am missing something in your posts

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I have said nowhere it should do anything...my only comment was that it was not a normal trading day. This could mean bad news or good.. I was asking for any information anyone had on it. I believe it was a relevent question/statement.

legs said:

I have said nowhere it should do anything...my only comment was that it was not a normal trading day. This could mean bad news or good.. I was asking for any information anyone had on it. I believe it was a relevent question/statement.

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hadn't I already made this point earlier "vol is significant but it cuts both ways - 50m bought means 50m sold ie owners holding 50m think it has more to lose." plus the info I added that it was not unusual at a strong S/R level to see increased volume confirming that price - no offence intended when providing that information

treefrog said:

hadn't I already made this point earlier "vol is significant but it cuts both ways - 50m bought means 50m sold ie owners holding 50m think it has more to lose." plus the info I added that it was not unusual at a strong S/R level to see increased volume confirming that price - no offence intended when providing that information

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But you can use your theorie both ways...the 50million being bought by owners must think it has lots to go up??? NO? Your theory has a hole the size of everest in it...no offence intended. Apart from the BIG 2, you wont find a better run mid tier mining company i.m.o.

j4mesa said:

Wow look at that head and shoulder pattern, should have realised it earlier....
Should have shorted it.

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I was planning to add to my OXR holding before I read this.
Not being strong on TA would appreciate further analysis/comment on the implications/probabilities of this pattern.

oldblue said:

I was planning to add to my OXR holding before I read this.
Not being strong on TA would appreciate further analysis/comment on the implications/probabilities of this pattern.

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Target's been reached oldblue, should stop around this level, which it seems to have along with the market. Lots of charts looking like this actually.

H&S formations can probably end when the stock falls through the neckline to the distance from the neck to the top of the head. As seen here. Technically, there's nothing more or less likely to happen from here IMO, except a pause, unless you're EW and think this was a 5 wave down move to be followed by whatever...

Does the charts take into account the very high probability that with Prominent Hill going into production Q3, the stock will be re-rated upwards?

Is the OX ready to shine?

Will need some positive news and continued gold and copper price rises to break a pretty hefty resistant area it now faces around 3.50ish - 3.60ish ( neckline, 200DMA, 23.6% fib and possible channel Line)
News in due shortly and hopefully its positive enough to keep buyers comming in to fill the gap @ 3.65 - 3.70.

Cheers
SGB

Todays news
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,23245698-5006368,00.html

Oxiana touts Thai iron ore discovery
February 20, 2008 11:46am

GOLD and copper producer Oxiana has flagged an "outstanding" iron ore discovery in Thailand after the company delivered a drop in full year earnings.

Oxiana (oxr.ASX:Quote,News) managing director Owen Hegarty said it was still "early days'' for the discovery, in the south east of Thailand, but was upbeat about its potential.

"The workers uncovered what we believe is some outstanding iron ore potential there, and we'll be following that up as you would expect with great gusto,'' Mr Hegarty told analysts in a conference call.

Oxiana has lodged applications over the prospective area and is permitted to do basic work, but not yet allowed to conduct drilling.

Mr Hegarty said the iron ore was "mostly'' high grade hematite and located in "good proximity to infrastructure''.

"It is good geographics, but the problem with Thailand at the moment is the political situation,'' Ord Minnett analyst Peter Arden told AAP.

"Kingsgate (Consolidated) is still trying to get its gold mining leases granted.''

Gold miner Kingsgate has been waiting for a number of years for the Thai government to grant mining leases on northern edge of its Chatree mine to allow the operation to expand.

Mr Arden said, however, that there was enormous interest in iron ore at the moment and Oxiana would likely find "some pretty willing partners'' to fund some of the development.

Oxiana today reported net profit of $305.8 million for the 12 months to December 31, a 45 per cent drop on the previous corresponding period's result of $553.17 million.

The result was short of the average analyst consensus of $320 million.

Oxiana said strong production was offset by a "stronger Australian dollar, a weaker zinc price, and a higher effective tax rate''.

The company has started paying tax at the full corporate rate in Laos where its flagship Sepon copper and gold operation is located.

Mr Hegarty was bullish on the outlook for global economic growth, despite a slowing in the United States, and the strength of prices and demand for commodities this year.

He said China was showing "powerful'' growth and said "the demand for all of the material and commodities that we are interested in continues to grow''.

The company reported earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $595.1 million, down from $827.18 million.

Oxiana declared a dividend of 4 cents per share, taking total dividend repayments for the year to 8 cents. Shares in the company were 13 cents higher at $3.50 by 12.47pm (AEDT).

This stock is pretty weird,
lower profit than last year was posted however the price of the shares goes up in a higher than usual volume.....

Good thing for holders....

The result was about as expected - maybe a little better.

It's the company's prospects which are appealing, plus the possibility of someone liking them enough to make a bid.



Disc: Holding OXR

I'm always amazed about takeover rumors I mean if you are going to buy a company why would you wait for the price to increase to a point where a premium has to be added why not pounce when the market falls for e.g. it hit $2.57 in Jan 08 is that not the time to do a T/O

cheers laurie

Extract from Huntleys Research (My only comment is the discovery of iron ore if really materialises it could rise like Flinders Diamond - but otherwise the performance has been poor)

Oxiana Limited (OXR)

FY07 Result
Recommendation: Hold 20/02/2008


Note: Marker indicates price of $3.44 at publication date.

Investment Rating
OXR is a gold, copper and zinc miner with cashflow from Sepon Copper and Sepon Gold in Laos and Golden Grove in WA. Exploration and development highlights include Prominent Hill in SA and the Golden Grove and Sepon copper and gold expansions. Management execution has impressed with the company building an impressive exploration, development and acquisition record. Near term cashflow is strong and the balance sheet robust with negligible net debt. Low cost assets are well placed to service Asia. Potentially predator or prey in global resource consolidation. OXR is positioned for long term growth but a tolerance for commodity, development and sovereign risk is needed. A preferred miner at the right price.

Result Description
Adjusted FY07 NPAT fell 42% to $318.2m compared to FY06. Headline NPAT declined 45% to $305.8m and included a $6.3m loss from discontinued operations – Wiluna – and $6.1m of unrealised foreign exchange losses. EPS declined 46% to 19.6c with some dilution from the Agincourt purchase.


Sales revenue was 19% lower at $1.20bn mainly due to lower realised zinc prices. An overestimation of outstanding receivables from FY06 – i.e. provisional pricing – led to a $53.3m reduction in FY07 sales revenue.


EBITDA fell 26% to $603m on lower revenues. The margin declined from 55.4% to a still robust 50.3%.


EBIT of $502m compares to $713m in the pcp. Margins shrunk from 48.3% to 41.8%.


Net operating cashflow fell 41% to $466.7m due to reduced cash margins, increased working capital and tax payments.


The balance sheet remains robust with only $175m of net debt including the $104m convertible note deeply in the money.


The final unfranked dividend of 4c compared to 5c franked to 46% in the pcp. The full year payout of 8c was steady.


Impact
Adjusted NPAT fell short of our $337.4m estimate due to higher than expected ‘other expenses’ of $45.4m. Our FY08 NPAT forecast is little changed at $326.1m based on US$3.25/lb copper, US$1.33/lb zinc and A$/US$ FX of 0.935. Our FY09 NPAT forecast is substantially higher at $606.9m with Prominent Hill expected to hit its straps. Assumptions are US$3.00/lb copper, US$1.20/lb zinc and A$/US$ FX of 0.91.


Our valuation is unchanged at $3.30 a share. Long term assumptions remain US$2.00/lb copper, US$0.90/lb zinc, an A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.80 and a 10% discount rate.


Recommendation Impact (Last Updated: 20/02/2008)
We downgrade our recommendation from Accumulate to Hold due to the recent share price recovery. OXR remains attractive with strong growth to come from Prominent Hill. The project will also solidify the company’s lower than industry average cash costs. Exploration at Prominent Hill, Martabe, Golden Grove and Sepon could excite.
Price data based on previous close.
Previous Close Market Cap
$3.58 $5,533 (million)
52 Week High/Low
$4.32 - $2.53
Sector
Materials


Intrinsic Valuation
$3.30
Note
10% DR, US$2.00/lb Cu, US$0.90/lb Zn, US$650/oz gold


Moat Rating None
Risk High
Company Beta 1.07
Sector Beta 1.22


Year 12/06A 12/07A 12/08E 12/09E
NPAT ($m) 546.40 305.80 326.10 606.90
EPS (c) 36.60 18.80 19.40 36.10
% Change 553.60 -48.60 3.20 86.10
DPS (c) 8.00 8.00 8.00 10.00
Franking (%) 28.80 50.00 100.00 100.00
Dividend Yield (%) 2.80 2.40 2.20 2.80
PER 7.70 18.00 18.50 9.90

Source: Aspect Huntley analyst estimates

2 Year Price Chart






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Event Analysis

FY07 Result FY06 FY07 % Chg
Gold Produced (oz) 223,722 151,197 -32.4
Copper Produced (t) 71,614 77,945 +8.8
Zinc Produced (t) 138,817 131,954 -4.9
Gold Cash Costs (US$/oz) 330 445 +34.8
Copper Cash Costs (USc/lb) 73 76 +3.8
Zinc Cash Costs (USc/lb) 43 30 -30.2

Sales ($m) 1,477.5 1,199.3 -18.8
EBITDA ($m) 818.6 603.1 -26.3
EBIT ($m) 713.2 501.9 -29.6
Pre-Tax Profit ($m) 688.8 483.7 -29.8
Adjusted NPAT ($m) 543.2 318.2 -41.4
Headline NPAT ($m) 553.2 305.8 -44.7
Net Op. Cash Flow ($m) 793.0 466.7 -41.1
EBITDA Margin (%) 55.4% 50.3% -9.2
EBIT Margin (%) 48.3% 41.8% -13.3
EPS (cps) 36.4 19.6 -46.2
DPS (cps) 8.0 8.0 0.0
Net Debt ($m) -355.1 174.7 -149.2
Gearing (%) -54.7% 10.3% -118.8

Hi folks,

OXR ... looking for a significant and positive announcement, over
the next few days, as 2 positive cycles come out to play .....

22-25022008 ... 2 cycles ... positive news ... finance-related ... ???

28-29022008 ... minor cycle

21032008 ... 2 cycles and minor news expected

28-31032008 ... 2 minor and positive cycles.

08042008 ... minor and positive news

14042008 ... minor and positive cycle

22042008 ... negative news expected

29042008 ... negative spotlight on OXR

happy days

paul



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Trader Paul said:

Hi folks,

OXR ... looking for a significant and positive announcement, over
the next few days, as 2 positive cycles come out to play .....

22-25022008 ... 2 cycles ... positive news ... finance-related ... ???

28-29022008 ... minor cycle

21032008 ... 2 cycles and minor news expected

28-31032008 ... 2 minor and positive cycles.

08042008 ... minor and positive news

14042008 ... minor and positive cycle

22042008 ... negative news expected

29042008 ... negative spotlight on OXR

happy days

paul



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Dear Trader Paul

Please tell more about your prediction.
Ironically OXR has gone up (odd against market movement) even after posting much reduced profit ?
Some brokers have rated it as neutral.

Please (once again) provide some facts about your cyclical prediction and as a moderator you know very well - how we need to support our prediction to delineate from a rumour or ramping !!!