OXR - Oxiana Limited

Nope, they haven’t mucked around with this today. I’ve been trying to get a sneaky short all day but unsuccessful. Gave up …. It’s been total accumulation today. Not a bad report as well. Be better placed if it can finish over $ 3.00. Still can’t believe a company of this strength to be trading under $3.00.

Nyden said:

Knew I should have re-bought some OXR yesterday! Instead I got stopped out :

Well done to those that bought, opening price is set to already by 2.9, if sentiment prevails could definitely erase yesterday's losses

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???? confused. You actually sold out. Hindsight makes us all experts.

Ironically its those that panic sell like you did, that drag it all down and cost everyone. The difference is those that don't panic sell get it back on the inevitable rebound. A perfect case study really.

Can someone explain after closing; The volumes and codes


Time(AEST) Price Volume Value Condition Codes
17:32:37 2.5800 454,817 1,173,427.86 SXXT
17:07:37 2.9380 231,688 680,699.34 LTXT
16:57:17 2.9330 150,000 439,950.00 LTXT
16:45:38 2.9380 231,688 680,699.34 LTXT
16:45:38 2.9380 231,688 680,699.34 LTXT
16:16:45 2.9000 7,298 21,164.20 SXXT
16:10:41 2.9000 5,000 14,500.00
16:10:41 2.9000 175,000 507,500.00

mailman said:

Can someone explain after closing; The volumes and codes


Time(AEST) Price Volume Value Condition Codes
17:32:37 2.5800 454,817 1,173,427.86 SXXT
17:07:37 2.9380 231,688 680,699.34 LTXT
16:57:17 2.9330 150,000 439,950.00 LTXT
16:45:38 2.9380 231,688 680,699.34 LTXT
16:45:38 2.9380 231,688 680,699.34 LTXT
16:16:45 2.9000 7,298 21,164.20 SXXT
16:10:41 2.9000 5,000 14,500.00
16:10:41 2.9000 175,000 507,500.00

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looks like special after market trades similar to 30th November which had no effect on SP. That day 8 x average volume was traded. Look at post #883.

So what are we guessing on OXR tommorrow. I am guessing the US market is down and we will lose another 5% tommorrow.

mailman said:

So what are we guessing on OXR tommorrow. I am guessing the US market is down and we will lose another 5% tommorrow.

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I never like to guess. however. Regardless of the downturn there is a world shortage of copper and due to the Fed acton last night I would expect the dollar to go down and the gold price to firm. Gold has decoupled from the oil price drop and usually decouples from market drops in those circumstances too.

So OXR, well under sold still, in my view so would be very surprised to see it drop any more from here.

If you invest with plans that are based on guessing then you perhaps should look at other ways to make money IMHO

explod said:

Regardless of the downturn there is a world shortage of copper and due to the Fed acton last night I would expect the dollar to go down and the gold price to firm. Gold has decoupled from the oil price drop and usually decouples from market drops in those circumstances too.

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Explod, are you a fan of Jim Penner? He is an absolute guru when it comes to gold:

http://www.jsmineset.com/

US$1,650 as an estimate of the future POG, and he's been spot on numerous times in the past. In times like these, commodities offer something solid as a panacea to sentiment based pricing, and I'm looking at longs gold & oil.

Mofra said:

Explod, are you a fan of Jim Penner? He is an absolute guru when it comes to gold:

http://www.jsmineset.com/

US$1,650 as an estimate of the future POG, and he's been spot on numerous times in the past. In times like these, commodities offer something solid as a panacea to sentiment based pricing, and I'm looking at longs gold & oil.

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Thanks for the link Mofra, looks like good insights and well worth following. One cannot get too much information and I like to keep focused on what I believe to be the best to follow. Some say diversification but I like the George Sorros way of going the full hog with the best. Life is too short to mess around.

having said that, one must study and watch the beJesus out of the object at hand.

Found this artical @ kitco.com from Mineweb. Worth a read.
http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=44974&sn=Detail

Bought OXR purely on fundametals

OXR will be producing this year
135kt of zinc
80kt of copper
125k oz of gold

even at current prices thats revenues of approximately
Just over $1billion AUD in revenues from metals
Costs about 50c zinc, $1 copper, $700 gold = (150+175+90) ~ $460million AUD

Corporate costs harder to gauge but $250million (inc dividend of $170million)

Should still generate a profit of around $350million for 2008 and EPS of 21c

By my rough calcs.
Giving it a growth P/E around 14 which I think is low puts it on $2.94

No value for exploration upside or takeover premium either.

I guess with the Xstrata rumours that they will be acquired by Vale (formerly CVRD) much of the takeover premium would have disappeared anyway without this market correction.


Then there is the growth profile for 2009
135kt zinc
180kt copper
200k oz gold

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=A91695A8-1871-E587-E10FDCB98EB643D3

Oxiana Remains 2009 Story
FN Arena News - January 24 2008
By Chris Shaw

Despite gold trading at close to US$900 per ounce gold shares have not been able to avoid the equity market fallout of recent weeks, with Oxiana (OXR) a prime example as the stock fell from around $3.80 earlier this month to below $2.80 before its latest bounce to around $3.00.

Of course the company is more than just a gold play with copper and zinc operations as well, but this diversification hasn’t helped of late as JP Morgan notes the December quarter production report showed weaker than expected zinc production and prices, which will impact on earnings.

ABN Amro adds in with the fact operating costs were higher than it had expected and the result is cuts to earnings forecasts among the brokers who cover the stock. These cuts range from 13-23% for the 2007 year and are of similar magnitude in coming years, with issues at Golden Grove cited as the main contributor to the reductions given the core Sepon operations continue to perform in line with expectations.

In EPS terms broker estimates now call for 2007 EPS (earnings per share) of around 20-21c or about half that of 2006, while 2008 estimates have a wider range with ABN Amro at 16.6c, UBS forecasting 24c and Macquarie at 19c. By way of comparison Thomson One Analytics shows median EPS estimates of 23c for both 2007 and 2008.

For most brokers the cuts are not enough to change views on the stock as earnings in 2007 and 2008 are not the main story. The real attraction of the shares according to Merrill Lynch is the expected ramp up in production from 2009, which it expects will result in a re-rating of the stock from the second half of this year.

Earnings estimates support such an outlook as Macquarie is forecasting EPS to jump to around 42c in 2009, ABN Amro expects 36c and Thomson One shows a median forecast of 39c.

The other point made by Citi is the valuation equation on the stock has improved a lot given the recent share price weakness, especially when the expected production increases are factored in and a longer-term view on the company’s prospects is taken. As a result Citi retains its Hold rating, while Macquarie is the only broker to make a change on the back of the production report.

The broker has upgraded the shares to Outperform from Neutral on a combination of valuation and outlook grounds, as it too is attracted to the production growth profile in coming years while it notes the stock is currently at a two-year low in net present value terms.

Overall the FNArena database shows Oxiana rated as buy four times, Hold five times and Sell or Underperform once, with an average price target of $3.64, down from $3.94 prior to the production report. Thomson One shows a median price target of $3.72.

Shares in Oxiana today are slightly higher in line with a stronger overall market and as at 9.50am were up 6c at $2.96.

Here again at $3.00 though I am a bit concerned with the way the last 5 minutes took place dropping that much.

Maybe this is a bad sign for the OX any bets for tomorrows game?

Mailman

With the miners going up in the European markets Hopeful that will mean the same for OXR. I think the big drop was because of the whole market falling today

I think the Ox is in limbo land and is doing nothing but for after 4pm when everything gets bought out.

Maybe someone is expecting nothing more but Gold just going up.

Somethings cooking look at the volume .. 56,000,000 on 18,000,000 average...huge midday volume... whats up?

legs said:

Somethings cooking look at the volume .. 56,000,000 on 18,000,000 average...huge midday volume... whats up?

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Hi legs,

Someone was putting 2 Mill orders in @ 2.84 while another was off loading. Don't know what to make of it but in total 40 Mill crossed over. Quite a interesting watch. They still have 2 Mill left in cue @ 2.84.

SGB

London is up already look like that guy might not get his 2 M but hey all this after trade stuff is not cool- maybe end of the month stuff!

hi guys,
I'm new here but have had ox for awhile now. Seems to me the Ox has not recovered as much as some stocks after last tuesday, and some people have relised this, was trading @$3.80 just 2 weeks ago. Gold still near all time highs too.Damm.

The rumour mill tell me that some of the major shareholders have been caught out on margin calls and are selling up - believe it or not!

legs said:

Somethings cooking look at the volume .. 56,000,000 on 18,000,000 average...huge midday volume... whats up?

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nothing untoward for mine - a good bounce off the strong 2yo support line at $2:50 is all I see - still a good entry @ $3 if you have faith in resources