OXR - Oxiana Limited

wavepicker · 16 April 2007

Kimosabi said:
It'll happen the day after you get frustrated enough and sell out..

This should break out in the coming weeks/months and blowoff to new highs. Target of $4.37/4.40 seems quite probable. However, as 5th waves in commodities often do extend perhaps even $5.50 maybe a possibility. IMO that will end the bull campain for this stock and coincide with the competion of the bull trend in commodities

rederob · 16 April 2007

wavepicker said:
This should break out in the coming weeks/months and blowoff to new highs. Target of $4.37/4.40 seems quite probable. However, as 5th waves in commodities often do extend perhaps even $5.50 maybe a possibility. IMO that will end the bull campain for this stock and coincide with the competion of the bull trend in commodities

It of course assumes that this bull run has a natural cyclical ending, and not just a pause/correction, as we had last year.
The cards I read suggest the latter, and that the present bull is not even half way into its term.

reece55 · 16 April 2007

wavepicker said:
This should break out in the coming weeks/months and blowoff to new highs. Target of $4.37/4.40 seems quite probable. However, as 5th waves in commodities often do extend perhaps even $5.50 maybe a possibility. IMO that will end the bull campain for this stock and coincide with the competion of the bull trend in commodities

Wavepicker

Your EW skills are second to none I have seen mate.... I just thank you for sharing snippets of your brain every now and then........

Certainly with copper looking like it will go to a corrective wave 4 shortly and then leap to a wave 5 (this is certainly Nick's view), your take on OXR is exactly what I see personally - perhaps with not so much insight or skill however!

Cheers
Reece

wavepicker · 16 April 2007

rederob said:
It of course assumes that this bull run has a natural cyclical ending, and not just a pause/correction, as we had last year.
The cards I read suggest the latter, and that the present bull is not even half way into its term.

Rederob, every bull has an ending and every bear has an ending. If it was not this way the market would not exist the way we know it. Everyone who get's involved int he market knows this. The present is just a repeat of the past, the same patterns and cycles repeat over and over again

.....The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done; and there is no new thing under the sun....

wavepicker · 16 April 2007

reece55 said:
Wavepicker

Your EW skills are second to none I have seen mate.... I just thank you for sharing snippets of your brain every now and then........

Certainly with copper looking like it will go to a corrective wave 4 shortly and then leap to a wave 5 (this is certainly Nick's view), your take on OXR is exactly what I see personally - perhaps with not so much insight or skill however!

Cheers
Reece

Thanks reece, just try to trade it like I see it. Move by move. Judging by the many posts for OXR, this 4th wave was a surprising dissapointent.

My own cycles/EW work called for a top in Gold last year in April/May. This coincided with the 8.5 Year cycle topping and subsequently I expeted a 1-2 year bear/sideways market. That move resulted in 26% mini crash from $730 to $541. Managed to trade that swing and 2 subsequent swings following that as the market followed the pattern of trend I was expecting for the most part. Was actaully expecting a completion at about $490, didn't happen. Since then has deviated somewhat from what was expected, but overall Gold did was expected in that correction in so far as trading that correction goes. The market will do what it wants to, and one has to develop methodologies to stay in sync with it.

legs · 3 May 2007

Up 3.88%, $0.12 today so far, market must have enjoyed the recent Golden Grove announcements and AGM.

Sean K · 3 May 2007

legs said:
Up 3.88%, $0.12 today so far, market must have enjoyed the recent Golden Grove announcements and AGM.

I also read rumours of a takeover in the Australian this morning, and Fat P put a buy on it at $3.10 ish I think. Higher volume too. Interesting.

YoungGun · 4 May 2007

It surprises me that there hasnt been more talk on these forums about Oxiana. Not even considering its excellent share price movement of late, but the heavy volumes it pulls each day.

The general direction management declared they wish to pursue at the latest AGM was encouraging and there are rampant reports of a corporate takeover.

Dutchy3 · 4 May 2007

Yeah nice close today and enough confirmation for me too.

I'll be loading up next week ....

legs · 7 May 2007

Up 13% over last 5 trading days...gotta be happy with that. Seriously, unless in gets to 3.90 in the next 12 months, it wont have performed as good as the majority of resource stocks. It was 3.40 this time 6 mths ago, a 15% return over 12 mths is surely expected from a mid cap. Copper is approaching record highs again,
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html#5years
Also new mines coming along nicely.

Ken · 7 May 2007

I transferred all my OXR into AGC @ $1.69 as it was trading at a discount before the merger.

Very happy with it all now still holding. No reason to sell really.

YoungGun · 8 May 2007

Quite a few profit takers early on today, but the sellers took control from about midday onwards for Oxiana to finish strongly, only a cent lower than yesterdays close. Considering the overall weaker performance of the market today, I was particularly happy with this result. Although I suspect it will change by market open tomorrow, the market depth for sells looks to be drying up..

Quite unexpected, but the semi-merger with Legend mining also a nice addition to the portfolio.

legs · 9 May 2007

Dutchy3 said:
Yeah nice close today and enough confirmation for me too.

I'll be loading up next week ....

I hope you got on mate..great pick up!!Been holding them since 80c days and intend to hang onto them. With RIO under takeover spotlight, it makes OXIANA a step higher in the food chain...great for takeover chatter.

legs · 1 June 2007

Nice bollinger squeeze starting and if you look at the last two squeezes the stock broke out upwards with good moves. Will be looking for a similar movement in the next week or two.

speves · 7 June 2007

Explains the recent jump....interesting times ahead..the Australian reports:

SHARES in miner Oxiana jumped nearly 5 per cent yesterday as surging copper prices and broker upgrades stoked takeover talk, with Canadian zinc giant Teck Cominco whispered as the latest possible suitor.

The key hook for the Canadians is rumoured to be Oxiana's $775 million Prominent Hill copper and gold mine development in South Australia's isolated Gawler Craton, which could fit well with any development of Teck's encouraging Carrapeteena copper and gold discovery in the same area.

The Canadian caused a stir among the Gawler juniors in April when it reported encouraging drill results, with one hole grading 2.1 per cent copper over a 905m intersection.

Oxiana yesterday rose 16c, or 4.8 per cent, to $3.50, valuing it at $5.3 billion.

Chief executive Owen Hegarty is seeking to expand Oxiana beyond the clutches of predators, using its Sepon gold and copper mine in Laos as the base. It has since bought the Golden Grove zinc and copper mine in Western Australia, committed itself to Prominent Hill and earlier this year bought Agincourt Resources for $415 million, delivering Oxiana the Martabe gold mine development in Indonesia.

Teck, the world's largest zinc miner, is well positioned to launch a bid.

Oxiana is frequently touted as a takeover target, with Swiss-based Xstrata often tipped as a possible bidder.

Oxiana shares were further boosted by Goldman Sachs JB Were upgrading its copper price forecasts. The broker had been forecasting prices next year to fall to an average $US2.81/lb from an expected $US3.30/lb this year, but it now expects prices in 2008 to rise to an average $3.48/lb before rising further to $3.55/lb in 2009.

Sean K · 15 June 2007

1012 [Dow Jones] Oxiana (OXR.AU) likely headed up to A$3.80/A$3.90 area if it breaks resistance near A$3.53, says Tolhurst technical analyst Violeta Todorova. Notes OXR has consolidated within A$2.50-A$3.50 area for over 12 months. "A break of the resistance level would be a bullish sign and there is quite a good chance this could occur in the current move up." OXR up 5 cents early at A$3.52. (DWR)

:iagree:

nizar · 15 June 2007

kennas said:
1012 [Dow Jones] Oxiana (OXR.AU) likely headed up to A$3.80/A$3.90 area if it breaks resistance near A$3.53, says Tolhurst technical analyst Violeta Todorova. Notes OXR has consolidated within A$2.50-A$3.50 area for over 12 months. "A break of the resistance level would be a bullish sign and there is quite a good chance this could occur in the current move up." OXR up 5 cents early at A$3.52. (DWR)

:iagree:

Kennas.
Check out MUR its a better break (or at least equivalent) in my opinion.
Textbook asceding triangle break, just like the Mighty Ox.

Caliente · 15 June 2007

yup, read that article a few days ago. with the amount of time OXR has been in that trading range, there's going to be a lot of pent up energy if it indeed does break out. Exciting times...

IMHO - Owen Hegarty is possibly the most intelligent/forward thinking MD in the mining game, so its not unwise to keep some of your funds attached to the OX.

disclosure: LT holder locked on for almost 3 years now.

theasxgorilla · 18 June 2007

I was running some stats on open short interest in Oxiana over the weekend. Seems that on Thursday last week the number of borrowed short sold shares in OXR fell by 28% in a single day. Considering that since the beginning of March the daily fluctuation in short interest has averaged about 3.5% this is big.

Anyone out there know why?

Has the short selling that kept OXR range bound for the last 12 months finally capitulated?

Sean K · 18 June 2007

kennas said:
1012 [Dow Jones] Oxiana (OXR.AU) likely headed up to A$3.80/A$3.90 area if it breaks resistance near A$3.53, says Tolhurst technical analyst Violeta Todorova. Notes OXR has consolidated within A$2.50-A$3.50 area for over 12 months. "A break of the resistance level would be a bullish sign and there is quite a good chance this could occur in the current move up." OXR up 5 cents early at A$3.52. (DWR)

:iagree:

Might be breaking up. Need EOD confirmation perhaps. This is trending up quite strongly after finding a bottom at $2.60 in March. Up $1.00 since then - about 30%. Not sure what would hold it back except general market fall back, or Copper/Zinc price collapse perhaps.

(not holding)

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