OXR - Oxiana Limited

Sean K · 22 January 2007

Gents, I had to remove the price prediction. I don't think it was done with any ill intent, but ASF policy is that you have to give an analysis for a prediction. Hope it does get to those levels for you! kennas

reece55 · 22 January 2007

OK mate, now I am with you - Whist I don't like to make price targets, I do believe OXR is a must have in any ASX portfolio - as I said, great stock with a great team paving the way for the future........ Certainly always on my watch list.

Cheers

mlennox · 22 January 2007

Dec2005A Dec2006E Dec2007E Dec2008E Dec2009E
Revenues (A$m) 395.7 1,177.6 1,334.9 1,119.0 1,191.4
EBITDA (core) (A$m) 172.5 783.9 944.5 699.5 574.0
EBIT (core) (A$m) 120.4 683.6 839.3 579.7 364.0
Net income (A$m) 77.7 481.6 510.2 344.3 212.6
EPS (pre-abnormals) (A$) 0.06 0.37 0.37 0.25 0.15
EPS (reported) (A$) 0.06 0.37 0.37 0.25 0.15
P/E (pre-abnormals) 19.10 7.79 7.74 11.47 18.58
EV/EBITDA (core) 9.09 5.19 4.16 5.50 6.09
EPS growth (pre-abnormals) 944.3 551.7 0.63 - -38.3
Net DPS (A$) 0.01 0.07 0.07 0.05 0.03
Net Div. Yield (%) 0.92 2.29 2.58 1.74 1.08

mmm credit suisse downgraded to $3.00 after there recent announcement, however UBS still rates it neutral 2 with a PT of 3.60.....

rederob · 22 January 2007

kennas said:
Gents, I had to remove the price prediction. I don't think it was done with any ill intent, but ASF policy is that you have to give an analysis for a prediction. Hope it does get to those levels for you! kennas

If OXR respects support - presently at $2.80 - in 20 months time it will double in price.
This would also leave it at well above $6 within three years.
Of course if copper and gold prices head quickly north again, a repeat of last year's run to May 2006 would put OXR above $6 before the end of the year.
I predict that OXR will trade at the same current price as BHP, based on trend, at a future date.

chops_a_must · 22 January 2007

rederob said:
I predict that OXR will trade at the same current price as BHP, based on trend, at a future date.

Lol! Considering they are both heading south, BHP investors are going to be very very disappointed.

Sean K · 22 January 2007

rederob said:
If OXR respects support - presently at $2.80 - in 20 months time it will double in price.
This would also leave it at well above $6 within three years.
Of course if copper and gold prices head quickly north again, a repeat of last year's run to May 2006 would put OXR above $6 before the end of the year.
I predict that OXR will trade at the same current price as BHP, based on trend, at a future date.

I'm a long term commodities bull in that I believe that even with a US recession, Chindia is a much longer term story that is almost self perpetuating - once the middle class are suffient to start buying all the trinkets that the US currently do. This may be a 5-20 year story. So, if as part of that process copper keeps appreciating, then maybe. Gold may appreciate until the almost decline of the US and China takes over as the new ruler of the universe, and they have 'World Series Ping Pong', and 'Mr Universe' is a competition to see who the smallest guy in the room is.

I currently doubt OXR will be around by then though. Someone else will buy them out when the valuations are right. That might be before it gets anywhere near $6.

mlennox · 23 January 2007

chops_a_must said:
Lol! Considering they are both heading south, BHP investors are going to be very very disappointed.

mate you got no idea, institutions are buying the crap out of BHP right now... so whilst you follow the herd i'll follow the wolves.

chops_a_must · 23 January 2007

mlennox said:
mate you got no idea, institutions are buying the crap out of BHP right now... so whilst you follow the herd i'll follow the wolves

Oh right, that's why it is setting new highs.

Gundini · 23 January 2007

mlennox said:
mate you got no idea, institutions are buying the crap out of BHP right now... so whilst you follow the herd i'll follow the wolves

Well, I'm sure the insto's already have substantial holdings in BHP, but I see no evidence of "buying the crap out of BHP", but I do see BHP aggressively buying their own stock back daily.

mlennox · 23 January 2007

Security TotVal NetVal NetVol #Buys BuyVol BuyPrice #Sells SellVol SellPrice #Trades Market%
MARKET 10228941519.2873 0 0 177117 1553585858 3.292 177117 1553585858 3.292 354234 100
TOTAL 10228941519.2873 0 0 177117 1553585858 3.292 177117 1553585858 3.292 354234 100
EQUITY 10084075491.6693 0 0 173502 1472504324 3.4241 173502 1472504324 3.4241 347004 100
BHP 817041951.4514 0 0 5170 16530837 24.7127 5170 16530837 24.7127 10340 100

Bush Trader · 23 January 2007

Back on the topic, Bradley I hope this answers your question somewhat. (See attached)

Cheers

millionplusmate "Oh boy...is there a crystal ball dude out there!!! Whats the go with copper? Im getting mixed messages...My accountant who is always on the ball reckons copper is going to bottom down $3000 by end of year. Other pundits are blaming the falling car market and housing market in US...the latest is that South American mine sites have stockpiled heavily in last 5 years but have pushed production along at the same time. Ive done alright over the last 6 months but would be loving some good advice otherwise the new house isnt looking so rosy. Thanks in anticipation of some fresh advice.

Bradley"

chops_a_must · 29 January 2007

Any thoughts on today's announcement? Looks pretty good to me, a near doubling of gold reserves...

j4mesa · 29 January 2007

chops_a_must said:
Any thoughts on today's announcement? Looks pretty good to me, a near doubling of gold reserves...

Yes,chops the ann. sound good, but then the price action is not......

Kruegs · 29 January 2007

Any idea on why the price has not tracked upwards in the last week or so, considering the Gold price has hung on over the $640 barrier, and their announcement about doubling reserves?

Regards,
Mark Krueger

mmmmining · 29 January 2007

OXR has got an excellent deal, a lot of gold resources, cash, and uranium exposure. 57% of holding in NEL is worth about $100m. It just removed one of my concern that is OXR is more copper that Gold. Now it is in better shape.

Now we have to find another AGC...

chops_a_must · 29 January 2007

j4mesa said:
Yes,chops the ann. sound good, but then the price action is not......

I'm out. Hard to see what is going to move the SP if this sort of stuff doesn't. Will be looking at getting back in if it gets to about 2.60. Unfortunately, that's where I see it heading.

j4mesa · 29 January 2007

Unfortunately, I am stuck with these shares because I linked it with Macquarie Hi-notes.

But with the outlook of their projects, OXR looks good for long term......

Out Too Soon · 30 January 2007

I'm in! (again) Timing is everything. :

Ken · 2 February 2007

anyone believe Oxiana can get into the top 50 on the asx in 2007.

i beleive we are seeing a switch back to resources at the moment. with telstra dropping (as the defensive stock), i have picked OXR as my stock for the next 12 months.

chops_a_must · 3 February 2007

Ken said:
i beleive we are seeing a switch back to resources at the moment. with telstra dropping (as the defensive stock), i have picked OXR as my stock for the next 12 months.

Big call. Lol! I think we may see a correction in resource stocks Monday.

OXR - Oxiana Limited

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