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Outstanding Breakout Alerts!

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The 2010/2011 Rare Earths hype was China announcing it will restrict supply of rare earths; I recall. No surprise in the hype considering China's relative reserves to the rest of the world.



Rare earths: global reserves by country 2023 | Statista

China's reserves of rare earths amounted to an estimated 44 million metric tons of rare earth oxide equivalent (REO) in 2023, thereby making it the world's leading country based on reserves of rare earths.
www.statista.com
 
aus_trader said:
I am looking for small cap RE players with great assets or potential that has not had the share price shot out from a cannon recently
Click to expand...
I really hesitate to add this but there is the bitter joke called Arafura resources (ARU)
I was in this over a decade ago, got out when it dawned in the primeval swamp of my brain that it wasn't going to happen soon and the process was highly complex and dodgy and a plant costs well over a billion. Resource is also a remote location. Nowadays they've got the dfs complete and tout themselves as shovel ready. Back in my time there was no hint from management that many years would pass before dfs, it was all imminent and hot with 'news flow' somehow.
The current M.D has been there since year dot (2004) in varying capacities. No wonder they hang around - the cumulative salaries paid by daisy chain cap raisings. I certainly have no intention of revisiting this folly. So don't look is my tip, but if you are going to risk being the next mug to act on the story:

ARU Decade Quarterly Periods
 
My thinking is along the lines of:

If I can't trade a stock, but there is enough conviction I am happy to put on small positions for the long term. There may be a number of tiny cap stocks on the asx that warrant such speculation and I am happy to spread my risk by buying tiny stakes in a number of them. I don't have a crystal ball as to which ones will be winners but hoping a couple of them make it big enough to make it worthwhile even if the rest continue to decline or become worthless as most penny stocks do in my own experience.

By the way I miss some of the old ASF smiley faces. You must be missing your favourite the Big Wide Grin Barnz ! I am missing the Eek! and even the simple Smile...
 
aus_trader said:
By the way I miss some of the old ASF smiley faces. You must be missing your favourite the Big Wide Grin Barnz ! I am missing the Eek! and even the simple Smile...
Click to expand...

100% Aus ...... No disrespect to the new breed of Smilies, but they don't have the same personality for some reason lol ...... Might have to invent a couple of my own. I do like the Old Fella though

@finicky .... The traditional cost to build a Rare Earth plant is astronomical as you say. Just one more reason I am happy to pump a few long term dollars into VML ..... They are looking to do initial sorting of suitable feedstock, then send that to the already established refineries to do the final sorting.

Obviously they wont be paid as much per tonne for the product, but their initial setup to be mining/producing is planned to be around $20 million ... unheard of with R/E companies.

Technically maybe not the right thread, although the VML chart is fairly impressive based on the last 6 months ... Will post the chart to keep the thread in context with breakouts

 
I have been posting quite a few breakouts recently but those were either charts of interest or were existing stocks in my portfolio which I have disclosed. I was also posting regularly to increase the posts on ASF which Joe appreciates.

Anyway, other than a few stocks that have been bought that were coming up to a breakout which Joe has pointed me to post in Potential Breakout Alerts! thread, I haven't actually bought into any of the breakouts until last Friday. The reason is: for me a breakout by itself is not a sufficient reason to buy a stock. There needs to be some fundamental drive that is pushing the stock higher into the breakout. That is what I encountered with the following stock which was bought for the Speculative Stock Portfolio, reasons explained in that thread.

MOC:

Disclosure: Just bought on Friday.
 
after a fair amount of reading over the weekend, i'm wondering if this qualifies as a buy under Skates blue bar system? As it looks like it does to me
 
Just a follow up on a couple of stocks that I have posted in the past on this thread. I like studying these charts as they happen and see what happens to breakouts live rather than from a historical perspective. So just sharing some of what I am looking at.

What's interesting about them is they were posted as a breakouts earlier but they hesitated at the breakout (resistance) level and it looked like price was likely to reverse creating a double top like structure.

However after some time, they have continued their upward momentum and now looks like a clear breakout has taken place.

CCL:


AFG:


RFT:

Another breakout I noticed today since the payment technology & BNPL sector is having another rally across the board which I was watching...

TYR:

Weird how a Tyro Ad came up above when I looked up Tyro chart ?

Breakout looks a bit clear on a line chart below...

TYR (line chart):
 
The bnpl sector is about to get really, really, REALLY saturated IMO. Inertia & incumbent advantage I suspect will put apt & z1p head & shoulders above the others as it's a homogenous product and mindshare/branding is about all that matters.

I just can't see ebay etc al pissing their customers off with 50,000 different payment options when the existing ones already work perfectly. The big one to watch is going to be paypal's BNPL service which they were VERY late to the game with.
 
Enjoyed reading your opinions of RE stocks, aus_trader.

I have been watching REE and NTU for some time now unable to decide what is the best way to play this commodity. China can and will manipulate prices all the way through the supply chain even if USA looks to advance their own version of acceptable supply. I want to avoid LYC simply for the cost involved in building a processing plant.
Looking for an entry into NTU shortly.
 
Thanks @bk1

Below is just my opinion so as always DYOR, also remember to not go heavy on speculative investments, I only have a smaller position which won't financially ruin me if things go sour.

So, out of the smaller players (leaving out LYC) in this market:

- I think NTU would probably offer some safety given there is Government backed National interest in the Heavy Rare Earth metals that are rich in the NTU Ore body. They blocked the Chinese involvement in NTU, so it's unlikely to disappear, which unfortunately happens with a lot of mining and exploring hopefuls.

- Given it has a operating pilot plant, there is some proof of concept with NTU, so the company is somewhat de-risked

- NTU is drilling to expand the resource, so could grow into something more significant down the track...
 
Another reminder for those posting in this thread:

Please post charts and identify the resistance level that has been broken through by any stock that you nominate as an outstanding breakout. It's not enough that a stock has been bullish or rising in price, it must have broken through an established resistance level on high volume to qualify for this thread.

Those who already post charts and analysis, thank you and please ignore this reminder.

Thanks for your co-operation.
 
A breakout that has surpassed the last 5 years of trading range. This one looks interesting and is in the same area of Chip manufacturing and Memory Chip development as asx high flyers BRN and WBT...

4DS:

Disclosure: I have a small minimal sized holding on this stock anticipating it may do a runner like WBT (4DS's main competitor on asx in my opinion) and BRN's mega run mid this year !
 
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