Outstanding BreakDOWN Alerts!

[markrmau]

Possibly, just possibly, we have recently seen the ultimate high in the ASX. That means we now have to do the opposite of what we have been doing over the last 3 years. That means we should be looking to short breakdowns (as opposed to Tech's breakout thread).

To start the ball rolling, GTP. I haven't shorted, but if I did, perhaps I would put a stop at about $3.50

 

[wayneL]

Re: Outstanding breakDOWN Alerts!!

FWIW

I prefer shorting corrections in the downward trend, rather than breakdowns. Though this could happen concurrently. For instance when you've had a strong push down and a small consolidation/pennant/flag/whatever and a breakdown from there. I prefer to see a reasonable retracement however.

Your chart there is in this phase atm Markmrau (small consolidation/bear flag) and could be setting up for the next leg down. Good one to keep an eye on.

 

[GreatPig]

Re: Outstanding breakDOWN Alerts!!

Wayne,

There are old traders, and there are bold traders, but there are no old, bold traders

That expression seems to get a good run around the different high-risk activities these days (or at least those perceived as high risk).

I believe it started out as a mountaineering expression, talking about climbers, and I heard it on TV just the other week talking about pilots (of light aircraft).

I have to say though, it is quite a catchy expression, and in the case of climbing (I did some rockclimbing for a number of years), it's certainly something that helps temper the urge to go for that risky move when you're not well protected.

Quite coincidentally, a guy I occasionally climbed with who was very experienced but used to really worry me with his tendency to flout the laws of gravity, eventually killed himself while out climbing (fortunately not while I was there), and another guy who used to be my accountant and was an amateur pilot also killed himself some years ago while flying (although in his case I have no idea whether he was a "bold" pilot or not, or exactly what caused the crash).

And even your trading version might be close to home for me. An ex-work colleague (by "ex" I mean he left, not died ) who, like me, managed to get quite a bit of cash through employee shares that shot up in value after a merger, public float, and later buy-out, I recently heard that he'd lost most or all of it somehow. I haven't heard exactly how, but I do remember him saying just before he left that he was playing around trading options on the US market. From my short discussion with him at the time, I got the impression he had little idea about what he was doing, and I have a suspicion that this may be where the money went (although I could well be wrong).

Cheers,
GP

 

[wayneL]

Re: Outstanding breakDOWN Alerts!!

Wayne,


That expression seems to get a good run around the different high-risk activities these days (or at least those perceived as high risk).

I believe it started out as a mountaineering expression, talking about climbers, and I heard it on TV just the other week talking about pilots (of light aircraft).

I have to say though, it is quite a catchy expression, and in the case of climbing (I did some rockclimbing for a number of years), it's certainly something that helps temper the urge to go for that risky move when you're not well protected.

Quite coincidentally, a guy I occasionally climbed with who was very experienced but used to really worry me with his tendency to flout the laws of gravity, eventually killed himself while out climbing (fortunately not while I was there), and another guy who used to be my accountant and was an amateur pilot also killed himself some years ago while flying (although in his case I have no idea whether he was a "bold" pilot or not, or exactly what caused the crash).

And even your trading version might be close to home for me. An ex-work colleague (by "ex" I mean he left, not died ) who, like me, managed to get quite a bit of cash through employee shares that shot up in value after a merger, public float, and later buy-out, I recently heard that he'd lost most or all of it somehow. I haven't heard exactly how, but I do remember him saying just before he left that he was playing around trading options on the US market. From my short discussion with him at the time, I got the impression he had little idea about what he was doing, and I have a suspicion that this may be where the money went (although I could well be wrong).

Cheers,
GP

Hey GP,

Hmmmmm unfortunately, having become a tad cliched', the statement loses a bit of its impact. Nonetheless, it is absolutely a truism, in all high risk fields of endeavour as your examples show.

I like another, related statement uttered by Che Guevara no less. (who appears to have violated his own maxim in the end) "The first duty of the guerilla fighter is survival". (which I have quoted so often that it is also in danger of being cliched' )

Ultimately, what these cliches' are trying to point out is that capacity risk, which is a buy-product of both inappropriate leverage and event risk, WILL eventually take most traders out.

There is no law that says we have to buy 1000 BHP put optionl contracts just because we have the cash in the account... and this is what a lot of traders are prone to with options and CFD's. No! One little short squeeze will choke the life out such a position, and decimate capital.

This little black duck intends to be around, making a nuisance of himself, for keeps. I never intend losing that healthy fear.

Little cliches' (truisms) keep me from getting complacent and remind me of where the REAL risk actually is. Hopefully it will serve the same purpose for others as well.

Cheers

 

[pacer]

Re: OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT Alerts!!

BSL Bluescope falling on increased volume and bad news today, could be a breakout going south, I'm going short 2000 BSL today just for a look.

 

[pacer]

Re: Outstanding BreakDOWN Alerts!!

The sky is falling! Chicken Little said,and he was bloody well right on that correction, and I made a ****load of $$$$$$$ going short....have not made a decent $$$ since..... but there are oppertunities now...The end suppliers like BSL are gonna be a short sell over the next few months...., asian companies were already over stocked on steel and steel products because they knew it was coming, and stocked up to make a killing later.
For instance ....Mt Isa mines hid or hide TONs of lead and copper back down in the mines after processing just to hide how much they have......so anyone flying over cant see thier stockpiles.......
Definitely a buy in a few years when it all gets brought to the surface. in a copper shortage...oh this aint the shortage that will come soon.......
hehe

 

[pacer]

Re: Outstanding BreakDOWN Alerts!!

The only stock in the top 50 to fall, still an ominous sign.... bought back first thing at open for a Quick profit!!!!!! and may resell later in the day.

 

[michael_selway]

Re: Outstanding BreakDOWN Alerts!!

The only stock in the top 50 to fall, still an ominous sign.... bought back first thing at open for a Quick profit!!!!!! and may resell later in the day.

GTP announces tomorrow?

was 2.20 really its low?

thx

MS

 

[jammin]

Re: OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT Alerts!!

GDY provides a short trade opportunity having broken out of a wedge, closing today at $1.04. Given the wedge dimensions a target of $0.92 may be achieved.

 

[Bush Trader]

Re: Outstanding BreakDOWN Alerts!!

Can you short stock about to go ex dividend if you, do it after the record date and before the divided is distributed? Sorry if it's a silly question, however I have never shorted anything in the equities game before. I also presume that you can only do this via CFD where a divided is still paid in or paid out?

"Please explain" Pauline


Cheers

 

[Out Too Soon]

Re: Outstanding BreakDOWN Alerts!!

Can you short stock about to go ex dividend if you, do it after the record date and before the divided is distributed? Sorry if it's a silly question, however I have never shorted anything in the equities game before. I also presume that you can only do this via CFD where a divided is still paid in or paid out?

"Please explain" Pauline


Cheers

Yep, ZFX has definitely brokedown big time. About to add to my holding.

 

[nizar]

Re: Outstanding BreakDOWN Alerts!!

About to add to my holding.

LOL your joking right?!

 

[camaybay]

Re: Outstanding BreakDOWN Alerts!!

Chart doesn't look too positive.
9d heading for 200d
DYOR

 

[blueroo]

Re: Outstanding BreakDOWN Alerts!!

For instance ....Mt Isa mines hid or hide TONs of lead and copper back down in the mines after processing just to hide how much they have......so anyone flying over cant see thier stockpiles.......

Pacer,

What are you on?

I've heard some bull.... in my time but that just about takes the cake. You need to question the bona fides of whoever is feeding you this rubbish.

The only things underground are the different ores, a few workers, equipment and plenty of darkness!

 

[CanOz]

Re: Outstanding BreakDOWN Alerts!!

Here's a couple that i'm watching for a short opp at the moment, i thought it might be a good opportunity to post a few potentials break downs..

IIF
PDN
PRT

Cheers,

 

[Kauri]

Re: Outstanding BreakDOWN Alerts!!

Is there a pattern such as an inverted cup??? Maybe a rounding top??? If so the XJO may bear watching...

 

[wayneL]

Re: Outstanding BreakDOWN Alerts!!

Bonds

 

[j4mesa]

Re: Outstanding BreakDOWN Alerts!!

PDN fits these

 

[Ken]

Break Down Alerts

I figure there is out-break alerts thread.

Here is a break down thread for those looking to go short.

I will post the first one.

TAH has closed at a 52 week closing low.

 

[tech/a]

Re: Outstanding BreakDOWN Alerts!!

Well profits will be down with NSW Horse racing closed down.
Will get worse.
The only sure bet Ive seen for a while.
I'll have a greenback on the nose.