OTR - Onterran Limited

[Veritas]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

Miner,
You do me an injustice. Perhaps I should have been more clear. My comment was not in any way a whinge about ASF, which I think is terrific.
I was going to ignore the undeserved scolding but I am interested in the discussion, hence my defence/explanation.

What I was getting at, is that there is so little reliable information available to assess the stock and make predictions about the performance of the outfit. The discussion in the thread is useful to a point but is essentially speculative musings, even with a bit of number crunching thrown in. It is like looking at a fog shrouded jungle island like the one where King Kong lives. You just can't know what's in there, and if you go there everything turns out to be a surprise, so often a bad one. The information provided by the outfit is obviously biased and has to be dissected to find the facts and what's relevant, and what it means. Information is missing. A statement that they employ 500 people is not very useful if it turns out that half of them are engaged in corporate PR and the rest don't know the business.

Why people invest on this basis, maybe no better than tossing a coin, is a mystery to me. I realise that you have to go with the information you've got. So I am asking?

 

[Miner]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

Miner,
You do me an injustice. Perhaps I should have been more clear. My comment was not in any way a whinge about ASF, which I think is terrific.
I was going to ignore the undeserved scolding but I am interested in the discussion, hence my defence/explanation.

What I was getting at, is that there is so little reliable information available to assess the stock and make predictions about the performance of the outfit. The discussion in the thread is useful to a point but is essentially speculative musings, even with a bit of number crunching thrown in.

It is like looking at a fog shrouded jungle island like the one where King Kong lives. You just can't know what's in there, and if you go there everything turns out to be a surprise, so often a bad one. The information provided by the outfit is obviously biased and has to be dissected to find the facts and what's relevant, and what it means. Information is missing. A statement that they employ 500 people is not very useful if it turns out that half of them are engaged in corporate PR and the rest don't know the business.

Why people invest on this basis, maybe no better than tossing a coin, is a mystery to me. I realise that you have to go with the information you've got. So I am asking?

Dear Veritas

Thanks for your note and I now understand your point.

However I did not do any injustice to any one. Who am I to do so any way?

I was reflecting on your posting. Your message was so jumbled and did not convey any thing or contributed any sort of information on NOD (atleast to me) . Thanks for your following message, which came with good paraphrasing and was much readable. (I am thankful to my coach in this forum she knows the difference in my writing)

This is an open forum where we exchange our thoughts. reading of publicly available information and personal analysis. We all have different portfolios and understanding of the various stocks and commodities. But none of us can claim to be an expert for obvious legal reasons. That is why this forum is so unique and good.

However to make this forum still better IMO we need to contribute more with technical information than just expressing ourselves. It is all give and take and no personality issue should be here by or with any one. That includes both of us. We have to be rational and factual above any thing.

I recognise your emotion but I hope you will understand my thoughts as well.

Surely, neither you nor me intended to have any debate here but to get information on Nomad.

I have originally asked a simple question, your thoughts on why NOD as an old timer has been behaving worse than DCG being a new comer under same industrial environment and considering DCG prices are dearer than NOD (based on general quotes you would receive against same specification) .

I am not pushing for the answer from you now and that is fine by me.

Let us move on and please do not take any thing on heart.

Cheers

 

[Veritas]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

Thanks. Maybe this NOD forum is not the right place to discuss the more general issues and the discussion should be shifted. For the moment, though, here is a thought which I hope is a contribution. All kinds of companies are composed of, and rely on, a technical capability and a management capability. Both are essential. Both depend on people and systems. It is impossible to see any of this from the outside. The people might leave and the systems might collapse. It can happen very fast but the effects are not immediately detectable. Contracts dry up, projected profits turn into losses, even in defiance if general trends, graphs, ratios etc, yet no one knows why. Some empires rise, others fall.

 

[oldblue]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

Nothing new in that, Veritas.

Successful equity investing has always been as much about evaluating management as anything else. NOD's has been found wanting as we all know now!

 

[jazajayslice]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

Welcome to thread Veritas and good thoughts.
Could you please share your thoughts / research on comparative capabilities between Nomad NOD and DCG ? The later is a new comer and stolen the show. NOD is fairly long in the business but struggling.

With current forthcoming turnaround in mining sector, building and accommodation is a must. DCG is wining contracts in Gorgon why Nomad is shy ?

With my recent experience in getting quotatins from Nomad and DCG the later was more expensive. Then I wonder why Nomad is loosing market ?

DNH

Interesting your comparison with DCG and NOD, have a look at which Company the former CEO of NOD went to..

 

[Miner]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

Interesting your comparison with DCG and NOD, have a look at which Company the former CEO of NOD went to..

Yep,
I am fully aware of it. In fact he also hired some one as a consultant for DCG who was the MD for NOD for about 10 years !.
DYOR and make your own calculation.
I DNH NOD or DCG.

 

[persistentone]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

Given the projected loss for 2010, do any of you expect to see any dividend at all for 2010? I think we might see 1 or 2 cents for the year, but I don't know whether they have a stated policy of maintaining any divided during a loss year.

 

[persistentone]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

When do we start to see revenues from Gorgon develop for Nomad, and what was NOD's projections for the amount of such revenues, or rough estimate on the range?

 

[persistentone]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

Can anyone describe a scenario where NOD goes out of business within two years? A $2M loss seems more than well covered by cash on hand. Their operating cash flows appear to just cover the capex expenses so overall cash burn rate seems sustainable. Debt has grown but interest coverage for 2009 was 9.5 times. Even adjusting for a loss they appear to have existing debt well covered.

 

[oldblue]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

Can anyone describe a scenario where NOD goes out of business within two years? A $2M loss seems more than well covered by cash on hand. Their operating cash flows appear to just cover the capex expenses so overall cash burn rate seems sustainable. Debt has grown but interest coverage for 2009 was 9.5 times. Even adjusting for a loss they appear to have existing debt well covered.

How secure are their funding lines?

When are they due for renegotiation/renewal?

What are the terms of their debt covenants?

 

[persistentone]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

I went to the 2009 annual report to answer these questions, and to my shock they don't have any section that discusses their bank facilities in very much detail. The 2009 letter says they are currently in discussion with lenders.

The balance sheet shows that none of the bank loans are long-term (note 19 on page 75). Note 17 on page 74 suggests all of the secured bank debt is short-term. So when does this come up for renewal, and what now are the banks going to extract from us as their pound of flesh? The bottom of page 61 says they have to reduce their facility by $10M in October of 2009 and the full facility with Westpac is due for a review in April 2010. It might be well to wait for that hurdle to clear, because if that facility is yanked then we have a liquidity crisis.

On page 74 I see they have "Hire purchase liabilities" of $13.8M and on page 75 they have a "non-current" (is that same as long-term?) hire purchase liability of $11.9M. What are those?

 

[skc]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

I went to the 2009 annual report to answer these questions, and to my shock they don't have any section that discusses their bank facilities in very much detail. The 2009 letter says they are currently in discussion with lenders.

The balance sheet shows that none of the bank loans are long-term (note 19 on page 75). Note 17 on page 74 suggests all of the secured bank debt is short-term. So when does this come up for renewal, and what now are the banks going to extract from us as their pound of flesh? The bottom of page 61 says they have to reduce their facility by $10M in October of 2009 and the full facility with Westpac is due for a review in April 2010. It might be well to wait for that hurdle to clear, because if that facility is yanked then we have a liquidity crisis.

On page 74 I see they have "Hire purchase liabilities" of $13.8M and on page 75 they have a "non-current" (is that same as long-term?) hire purchase liability of $11.9M. What are those?

Current liabilities are less than 1 year. Non-current means greater than 1 year - it doesn't mean long term. Depending on the balance date that non-current item could be current now.

Not sure what hire purchase liability is but my guess is the equipment that they've committed to "hire purchase", possibly for various projects they have at hand. It should be offset against an asset like "hired equipment"?

The profit downgrade announcement said that banking convenants are NOT in breach based on current forecast, investors are clear jittery about that these current forecasts are subjected to further downside. To assess whether this is now a bargain, one would have to get their hands on the lending terms and do some stress test / scenario analysis.

Dividend is highly likely to be zero unless they get favourable outcomes on their talk with the bankers imo.

 

[takeprofits]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

I've noticed that a couple of Nomad Directors have purchased a few substantial parcels of shares in the past month.
Maybe they think they're at a bargain price?

 

[Veritas]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

Maybe they know that if the directors don't buy in no one else will.
This thread went quiet. What's everyone doing? Holding their breath?

 

[Huitzii]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

Does anyone know what has happened with the banks and NOD?
If they can keep the banks on their side NOD could be worth looking at with a 30% gain over the last couple of days.
Any info or thoughts or updates?
Cheers Huitzii

 

[oldblue]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

Announced today that banking facilites with Westpac have been renewed, subject to usual documentation.

 

[noie]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

After spending all morning reading, i got more interested in this stock , interesting information here
During the time of my reading it snuck up 10%

 

[ROE]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

After spending all morning reading, i got more interested in this stock , interesting information here
During the time of my reading it snuck up 10%

It been a year since the fall from grace ..a year ago I decided to stay away but

development lately prompt me to dig deep....

I been going through a lot of their material I start to like it....

This has all the hall mark of a turn around....uncle Warren Buffet often tell me
A turn around business seldom turns ...I disobey him with CCP and FLT and
I may disobey with NOD

 

[skc]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

It been a year since the fall from grace ..a year ago I decided to stay away but

development lately prompt me to dig deep....

I been going through a lot of their material I start to like it....

This has all the hall mark of a turn around....uncle Warren Buffet often tell me
A turn around business seldom turns ...I disobey him with CCP and FLT and
I may disobey with NOD

Well spotted...

Those who got in at the recent 10c capital raising are sitting on 50% profit (e.g. me )... it may be a little bit before the profit takers finish with their selling.

Hopefully it will meander down to let me buy some around 13c based on the charts.

 

[robusta]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

It been a year since the fall from grace ..a year ago I decided to stay away but

development lately prompt me to dig deep....

I been going through a lot of their material I start to like it....

This has all the hall mark of a turn around....uncle Warren Buffet often tell me
A turn around business seldom turns ...I disobey him with CCP and FLT and
I may disobey with NOD

Good luck with NOD ROE. Cant see a lot I like but you are buying at about 1/2 price on equity per share so if they manage to turn things around should be a nice upside.

NOD is in about the same space as Fleetwood so should be heaps of opportunity for them.