OTR - Onterran Limited

[skc]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

From a charting point of view 70c is the next support and lines up with 62% retracement and top of earlier pivot high.

At 70c the fundamentals go back to PE<10 on $10m profit.

 

[skc]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

Would someone like to make the bear case for this stock and tell me why NOD is not a buy right here under 90 cents?

It's been two months since Persistentone jinxed NOD... :

The chart is now at a critical junction imo. If it can hold the current share price level, it is possible for a wave 5 to take the share back above $1. But there is no sign of a turnaround just yet. In fact it is trading just under the 68c area which was the top of wave 1 back in May...

The fundamentals will soon start to hold up the share price one would think... PE is ~9 based on full year NPAT ~$10 to 12m. Based on the recent AGM address, work in hand is only $190m, while full year forecast revenue is only $275m (2008-09 = $410m). So their work in hand is only 8-9 months... they better win some projects quick smart.

 

[persistentone]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

It's been two months since Persistentone jinxed NOD... :

The chart is now at a critical junction imo. If it can hold the current share price level, it is possible for a wave 5 to take the share back above $1. But there is no sign of a turnaround just yet. In fact it is trading just under the 68c area which was the top of wave 1 back in May...

The fundamentals will soon start to hold up the share price one would think... PE is ~9 based on full year NPAT ~$10 to 12m. Based on the recent AGM address, work in hand is only $190m, while full year forecast revenue is only $275m (2008-09 = $410m). So their work in hand is only 8-9 months... they better win some projects quick smart.

The way I read the AGM presentation is that they have come back as a smaller company. Unfortunately, they are sailing upwind because the strong Australian dollar is making their product too expensive. It's that dollar situation that makes me very skeptical that they can stage a sustained rally. I would not be surprised to see them trade in the 30 cent to 50 cent range until there is an upturn in their order book.

I'm inclined to start nibbling below 50 cents at this point. They seem to have their leverage in control. I cannot see them staying below 30 cents very long if they can actually pay out $5M+ in dividends each year that would imply a very substantial dividend and should help to set a floor on the price.

Note that NOD's chart is extremely countertrend to the overall market, so the fact that it consistently comes under distribution shows the holders with an inside view are really concerned about the company's prospects for 2010. No doubt they are suffering, but management strikes me as pretty good and I believe they will do the necessary cost cutting to right size the company.

 

[skc]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

Ouch!

Down 45% to 39c after a significant profit downgrade.. They are now in the red for the year.

The chart was setting up for a nice reversal trade, having moved off the lows of 60c to ~75c... I actually had a buy limit order at $68c to try to catch and retracement

Thankfully I was at my desk this morning reading ASX announcements and promptly deleted the order.

The fundamentals of the company now looks bad - they didn't screw up on 1 or 2 big project - they just can't win any new work, margins are reducing, strong Aussie $ hurting them... There may be a short term technical bounce - but it's officially off my watchlist.

 

[WiseMum]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

I'm really feeling for all those holding today. I have been watching them closely looking for a dip down around the 50c mark to buy in. Thank goodness I saw the announcement & was able to check my order this morning. No doubt they will have a bounce after such a massive dump but I won't be placing any orders until the next announcement on Wednesday and some significantly healthy signs of improvement.

 

[Purple XS2]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

I'm really feeling for all those holding today. I have been watching them closely looking for a dip down around the 50c mark to buy in ...

Ouch! indeed: As a non-holder who's had NOD in the watchlist for some time, I feel the holders' pain, as I'm sure they'll feel mine if/when the occasion arises. :
I see this is what a bad Monday can look like:

No doubt they will have a bounce after such a massive dump but I won't be placing any orders until the next announcement on Wednesday and some significantly healthy signs of improvement.

I'm with you there. Will be watching with great interest, meantime I have some R to DMO on.

Regards, P.

 

[oldblue]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

Sadly, it appears that management of this company isn't up to the challenge of the more complex business that NOD has become since listing and expanding through takeover.
Either that, or the chairman's warning last year about increased foreign competition is coming true.

 

[skc]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

Sadly, it appears that management of this company isn't up to the challenge of the more complex business that NOD has become since listing and expanding through takeover.
Either that, or the chairman's warning last year about increased foreign competition is coming true.

Sounds like they bought a lemon in Rapley Wilkenson. It was also funny to see the management grasping at straws - "The implementation of ERP computer system" has rarely led to gains in controls, information and management decisions in the short term. They mostly led to gains in IT capital expenditure and chaos for some time.

The killer was of course "initiated discussion with the bankers". This could go anywhere, may be a forced cap raising? They should have done it when the SP was closer to $1.

Still no floor on the share price free fall - 34c today.

 

[Miner]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

Sounds like they bought a lemon in Rapley Wilkenson. It was also funny to see the management grasping at straws - "The implementation of ERP computer system" has rarely led to gains in controls, information and management decisions in the short term. They mostly led to gains in IT capital expenditure and chaos for some time.

The killer was of course "initiated discussion with the bankers". This could go anywhere, may be a forced cap raising? They should have done it when the SP was closer to $1.

Still no floor on the share price free fall - 34c today.

For a moment I saw the sell price at the closure time was shown as 29 cents 4.01 PM exact in COmmsec . I went at the site and saw the sell price is 33.5 cents. Must be some strange game done by the brokers which is not known to me.

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

Has never followed or researched anything regarding NOD .......

However on a technical view it is due a bounce very shortly ......... ONLY OPINION of course and not trying to encourage any knife catching BUT theres a trade coming up on this sucka for those that like the bounce plays .

 

[ROE]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

This company has a bit of a reputation of "lot of promise, little result"

and the management tend called a spade a card but not a spade

After this debacle I think most big holder will have enough and start dumping their holding and going to create pressure on the SP...

I dont see a bottum to this stock just yet, purely on fundamental not technical

 

[skyQuake]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

Lows in right there imo.
Capitulation at 10:10 when the volume went nuts
Disc: I hold and will sell when you buy

 

[skc]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

Lows in right there imo.
Capitulation at 10:10 when the volume went nuts
Disc: I hold and will sell when you buy

Low 30c looks about right...

Let's just make up some numbers on their fundamentals.

FY10, NPAT -$5m
FY11, NPAT $0m
FY12, NPAT $2m
FY13, NPAT $5m
FY14, NPAT $8m and grow at 2%

Assuming NPAT will be close enough to cash flow... the NPV discounting at 15% = ~$40m. Or ~29c per share.

This gives them plenty of time to turn around. Obviously this is just the P/L side... the banks could call in the loans next week and all goes belly up.

 

[jazajayslice]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

Sounds like they bought a lemon in Rapley Wilkenson. It was also funny to see the management grasping at straws - "The implementation of ERP computer system" has rarely led to gains in controls, information and management decisions in the short term. They mostly led to gains in IT capital expenditure and chaos for some time.

The killer was of course "initiated discussion with the bankers". This could go anywhere, may be a forced cap raising? They should have done it when the SP was closer to $1.

Still no floor on the share price free fall - 34c today.

I believe the acquisition of Rapley Wilkenson wouldn't have made too much of a difference to their project cost over-runs. Bascially how it works with these types of contracts is the manufactured product section (transportables) of the contract has minimal risk when bidding a job, as the build specifications are normally very clear and straightforward. The main area of potential risk is in the construction phase (installation of the buildings, site works, services etc). I believe that prior to the Rapley Wilkenson acquisition, Nomad used in-house Project Management teams combined with specialist contractors. The mistakes (I believe) in bidding this portion of the work would have been made either way. Unfortunately margins in these types of contracts are small compared with other industries, therefore if you make a mistake, you pay.

 

[Veritas]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

I am not a regular share trader but I know something about the building, construction, engineering and resources industries. I read this whole thread and it seems like people buy and sell on hunches and beliefs and wishes and hopes, and that the graphs and ratios are used in the same way that ancient cultures once made predictions by trying to decipher tea leaves and entrails. May I humbly suggest that it does not matter what the dollar is worth or what state the boom/bust cycle is in, or even whether there are contracts in hand or on the horizon. The fundamentals are about technical capability and how effectively projects are controlled, ie know-how. Just a thought.

 

[Miner]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

I am not a regular share trader but I know something about the building, construction, engineering and resources industries. I read this whole thread and it seems like people buy and sell on hunches and beliefs and wishes and hopes, and that the graphs and ratios are used in the same way that ancient cultures once made predictions by trying to decipher tea leaves and entrails. May I humbly suggest that it does not matter what the dollar is worth or what state the boom/bust cycle is in, or even whether there are contracts in hand or on the horizon. The fundamentals are about technical capability and how effectively projects are controlled, ie know-how. Just a thought.

Welcome to thread Veritas and good thoughts.
Could you please share your thoughts / research on comparative capabilities between Nomad NOD and DCG ? The later is a new comer and stolen the show. NOD is fairly long in the business but struggling.

With current forthcoming turnaround in mining sector, building and accommodation is a must. DCG is wining contracts in Gorgon why Nomad is shy ?

With my recent experience in getting quotatins from Nomad and DCG the later was more expensive. Then I wonder why Nomad is loosing market ?

DNH

 

[Veritas]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

I read the thread and the presentation. Same old, same old? What kind of analysis can be derived from the presentation? What important information isn't init? What further Q&A might help?

 

[Miner]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

I read the thread and the presentation. Same old, same old? What kind of analysis can be derived from the presentation? What important information isn't init? What further Q&A might help?

Looks like you have had a rough Friday

Mate, you have joined in Jan 2010 as per your details, and started to frustrate commenting on ASF thread quality right in your second mail.

What could I say ? Do you know ASF was rated as No 1 last year (or 2008?).

So my dear friend, start contributing something and then get the right to whinge and kicking at others. Just a suggestion and enjoy ASF.

Sorry other readers - my posting was not exactly related to NOD but that is how I could defend ASF :topic

 

[blinkau]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

Seems incompetent issuing a earnings guidence release in mid-october stating a npat of $10m-12m and then a bit over 2 months later issuing an earnings downgrade of -$5m. I felt the gearing with their lender appeared a little risky when they where making a profit let alone racking up a loss.

 

[McCoy Pauley]

Re: NOD - Nomad Building Solutions

http://www.theage.com.au/business/nomad-wanders-into-territory-of-big-losses-20100116-mdf0.html

Article on today's Age website about the travails of Noman Holdings. May be of some interest to holders.

Disc - do not hold and, by the look of things, don't want to hold.