Unless you have the same investment horizon as these guys, it would be advisable to look elsewhere.
Anyone seeing long term value here?
Closed today at $4.37
As expected from their trading update at the end of July, Origin Energy has revealed a multi-billion-dollar loss after taking huge write downs in the year to June 30.Things don't appear to be improving, investing in the energy market in the current climate isn't for the faint hearted...
"The Energy Markets headwinds are expected to persist into financial year 2022, though this should be largely offset by the strong performance of our integrated gas business. .........with a rebound in energy markets earnings expected in financial year 2023,” Mr Calabria said.
| AST | AUSNET SERVICES LTD ORDINARY |
| Balance Date | Dividend Type | Cents per share | Ccy | Franked % | Ex-Dividend Date | Books Close Date | Pay Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/03/2021 | Final | 4.750 | AUD | 40.00 | 20/05/2021 | 21/05/2021 | 24/06/2021 |
| 30/09/2020 | Interim | 4.750 | AUD | 40.00 | 16/11/2020 | 17/11/2020 | 17/12/2020 |
| 31/03/2020 | Final | 5.100 | AUD | 50.00 | 20/05/2020 | 21/05/2020 | 25/06/2020 |
| 30/09/2019 | Interim | 5.100 | AUD | 50.00 | 18/11/2019 | 19/11/2019 | 19/12/2019 |
| 31/03/2019 | Final | 4.860 | AUD | 45.00 | 21/05/2019 | 22/05/2019 | 27/06/2019 |
| 30/09/2018 | Interim | 4.860 | AUD | 40.00 | 19/11/2018 | 20/11/2018 | 20/12/2018 |
| 31/03/2018 | Final | 4.620 | AUD | 0.00 | 22/05/2018 | 23/05/2018 | 28/06/2018 |
| 30/09/2017 | Interim | 4.630 | AUD | 0.00 | 20/11/2017 | 21/11/2017 | 21/12/2017 |
| 31/03/2017 | Final | 4.400 | AUD | 0.00 | 24/05/2017 | 25/05/2017 | 27/06/2017 |
| 31/03/2017 | Special | 1.000 | AUD | 0.00 | 24/05/2017 | 25/05/2017 | 27/06/2017 |
| 30/09/2016 | Interim | 4.400 | AUD | 50.00 | 24/11/2016 | 25/11/2016 | 22/12/2016 |
| SKI | SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE STAPLED US PROHIBIT. |
| Balance Date | Dividend Type | Cents per share | Ccy | Franked % | Ex-Dividend Date | Books Close Date | Pay Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06/2021 | Interim | 6.250 | AUD | 0.00 | 07/07/2021 | 08/07/2021 | 15/09/2021 |
| 31/12/2020 | Final | 6.500 | AUD | 0.00 | 30/12/2020 | 31/12/2020 | 15/03/2021 |
| 30/06/2020 | Interim | 7.000 | AUD | 0.00 | 03/09/2020 | 04/09/2020 | 15/09/2020 |
| 31/12/2019 | Final | 7.500 | AUD | 0.00 | 03/03/2020 | 04/03/2020 | 13/03/2020 |
| 30/06/2019 | Interim | 7.500 | AUD | 0.00 | 03/09/2019 | 04/09/2019 | 13/09/2019 |
| 31/12/2018 | Final | 8.000 | AUD | 0.00 | 05/03/2019 | 06/03/2019 | 15/03/2019 |
| 30/06/2018 | Interim | 8.000 | AUD | 0.00 | 04/09/2018 | 05/09/2018 | 14/09/2018 |
| 31/12/2017 | Final | 7.625 | AUD | 0.00 | 05/03/2018 | 06/03/2018 | 15/03/2018 |
| 30/06/2017 | Interim | 7.625 | AUD | 0.00 | 05/09/2017 | 06/09/2017 | 15/09/2017 |
| 31/12/2016 | Final | 7.250 | AUD | 0.00 | 03/03/2017 | 06/03/2017 | 15/03/2017 |
Origin CEO Frank Calabria said, “Australia Pacific LNG has continued its strong performance and was able to benefit from the substantial increase in oil and spot LNG prices and favourable currency movements, helping to drive a large increase in revenue compared to the prior year.
“Early completion of planned maintenance boosted production and sales in the December quarter, and also allowed Australia Pacific LNG to capitalise on a buoyant spot LNG market, selling three JKM-linked spot cargoes with a further five sold for delivery in the coming months.
“In the domestic market, an average price of close to $6/GJ demonstrates Australia Pacific LNG continues to ensure competitively priced supply for local customers.
“Origin recently announced ConocoPhillips had exercised its pre-emption rights in relation to Origin’s sale of 10 per cent of its shareholding in Australia Pacific LNG, subject to FIRB approval.
Origin remains upstream operator and will retain a 27.5 per cent interest. “In Energy Markets, a cooler start to summer and reduced economic activity owing to continued lockdowns in the two most populous states meant the December quarter was subdued. Prices across the NEM were lower in this period, as a consequence of fewer unplanned baseload outages and increased renewable generation.
“Origin won new business customers in electricity which drove increased volumes in this segment, however natural gas business volumes declined as contracts expired and the impact of COVID was felt across the economy.
Gas to generation was also lower as a result of reduced daytime pool prices. “In December, Origin also announced the acquisition of WINconnect adding further scale to our growing community energy services business. The acquisition is expected to deliver strong returns and add a significant number of embedded electricity network and serviced hot water customers,” Mr Calabria said
6 and a half years later the SP is back to 6 dollars 15 or so, up about 50% in just 6 months, some talk of a capital return.Down another 10% today, quite incredible when the mighty fall.
Is the 60+% fall in SP realistic? overdone and way to pessimistic or not pessimistic enough?, notice that the very sharp (recent) price decline on the 2 year chart simply cannot be maintained at that angle.. something has to give.
`
Origin proposes to accelerate exit from coal-fired generation
Origin Energy Limited (Origin) is proposing to accelerate its exit from coal-fired power generation, delivering on a core aspect of the company’s strategy as it aims to lead Australia’s energy transition towards net zero emissions.
Notice has been submitted to the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) indicating the potential early retirement of Eraring power station at the end of the required three and half year notice period. This reflects the rapidly changing conditions in the National Electricity Market (NEM), which are increasingly not well suited to traditional baseload power stations and challenging their viability.
Origin CEO Frank Calabria said, “Origin has today submitted notice to AEMO for the potential early retirement of Eraring Power Station in August 2025.
“Origin’s proposed exit from coal-fired generation reflects the continuing, rapid transition of the NEM as we move to cleaner sources of energy. Australia’s energy market today is very different to the one when Eraring was brought online in the early 1980s, and the reality is the economics of coal-fired power stations are being put under increasing, unsustainable pressure by cleaner and lower cost generation, including solar, wind and batteries.
“To enable Origin to support the market’s continued transition to renewables, we intend to utilise the Eraring site beyond any retirement of the coal-fired power station, with plans to install a large-scale battery.
“We have carefully weighed Eraring’s future for some time, which has included extensive consultation with the NSW government to identify what options might exist for the future of the plant. Eraring is a high-quality asset, run by a skilled and dedicated team, that has worked tirelessly to supply reliable and affordable energy in NSW for four decades. However, it has become increasingly clear over the last few years that the influx of renewables has changed the nature of demand for baseload power.
“At the same time, the cost of renewable energy and battery storage is increasingly competitive, and the penetration of renewables is growing and changing the shape of wholesale electricity prices, which means our cost of energy is expected to be more economical through a combination of renewables, storage and Origin’s fleet of peaking power stations.
“The mechanisms are now in place to guide future investment in supply, including the NSW Roadmap, and firm commitments have been made for other dispatchable capacity to come into the market over the coming years, as well as new transmission infrastructure, which are expected to more than compensate for any exit of Eraring.
“We will continue to assess the market over time, and this will help inform any final decisions on the timing for closure of all four units.
“We acknowledge this news will be challenging for many of our colleagues, suppliers and the local community. This is only the start of the process, and we commit to consulting with our people, and supporting them, through any potential closure,” Mr Calabria said.
As part of any replacement plan for Eraring, Origin has well-progressed plans for a battery of up to 700 MW located on the site. Origin looks forward to participating in the NSW Government’s Electricity Infrastructure Roadmap process, as appropriate, to support installation of as much of this battery as possible, before any closure of the Eraring coal-fired power station. Origin will also seek to bring online additional renewable and storage capacity, including a potential expansion of the Shoalhaven pumped hydro scheme, through the NSW Roadmap process.
Origin’s current restoration and rehabilitation provision for the Eraring site is approximately $240 million, based on the previous closure date of 2032. These costs will continue to be reviewed and are expected to be incurred over several years post any closure, with the timing dependent, in part, on a potential battery investment and ongoing ash dam operations.
There is no change to Eraring operations today. Eraring site staff, off site contractors and suppliers will continue to be required, as long as the service is still required by the power station.
Origin will consult with its Eraring workforce about the timing of any potential retirement, as well as providing a generous support package during any transition period. This will include re-skilling, career support and redeployment into new roles, where possible. Origin intends to engage with governments and the local community to determine the most appropriate transition planning for any eventual closure. This includes tailored transitional support for employees, continuing with current community commitments, sponsorship and donations out to 2032, and the establishment of a community fund.
Any retirement of Eraring Power Station in mid-2025 is expected to remove a significant proportion of Origin’s Scope 1 emissions, delivering on the company’s commitment to help achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, well ahead of 2030. Origin remains committed to updating its emissions reduction targets consistent with a 1.5°C pathway later this year.
Eraring is a 2880 MW black coal plant on the shores of Lake Macquarie. It has four units and became fully operational in 1984. Origin had previously targeted closure of the asset by the end of its technical life in 2032.
Eraring is a 2880 MW black coal plant on the shores of Lake Macquarie.
As a brief comment:I would expect ORG can reverse those eye watering losses and turn their big ship around.
Volatility hits Origin earnings, guidance
Origin Energy slashes energy markets earnings forecast for 2022 by a quarter and withdraws earnings guidance for the 2023 financial year amid huge volatility in electricity markets and coal supply problems at its Eraring plant in NSW.
The power operator says energy markets underlying earnings will fall by 26 per cent at the mid-range to $310m-$460m from the original guidance of $450m-$600m.
It blamed a series of coal supply problems at Eraring, Australia's largest coal station, which its plans to shut as soon as mid-2025.
Group underlying earnings are forecast at the mid-point of the original $1.95bn$2.25bn range, due to Origin's gas business running hot. It now expects integrated gas earnings of $1.7bn-$1.8bn from the original $1.5bn-$1.65bn range.
The problems with its energy markets business have in part been caused by issues with its supplier, Centennial Coal, which is struggling with production constraints at its Mandalong mine with the situation deteriorating significantly in recent weeks, according to Origin.
That means the company is exposed to paying higher wholesale prices to buy alternate supplies to meet customer demand.
"The recent material under-delivery of coal to Eraring results in lower output from the plant, additional replacement coal purchases at significantly higher prices, and is being exacerbated by coal delivery constraints via rail. Despite positioning the year with a relatively low short position across all states, the lower output from Eraring results in a greater exposure to the purchase of electricity at current high spot prices in order to meet customer demand," Origin says.
Deliveries from the Mandalong mine are expected to be interrupted during the remainder of FY2022 and into the first half of FY2023. Equipment supply chain delays are also expected to impact coal deliveries in FY2023.
Problems with Eraring are seen extending into the 2023 financial year, which along with broader volatility, saw the company pull its guidance.
Origin had previously provided guidance for Energy Markets Underlying EBITDA for FY2023 of $600 – $850 million.
It expects to pay more for coal given soaring thermal coal prices in the market and said there are limitations for securing additional supplies by rail.
"Due to the factors outlined above, there is a very high degree of uncertainty around the range of earnings outcomes for the 2023 financial year. As a result, Origin has withdrawn all guidance for FY2023. Origin will continue to assess the outlook, with a view to providing an update at full year results in August," Origin says. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/bu...ive-coverage/5bfcdd160960eb37db27b90212cced97
Electricity retailers face collapse, Origin Energy warns
Origin Energy has predicted smaller electricity retailers face collapse due to soaring wholesale energy prices and has called on governments to prioritise coal supply for power stations to ease a growing energy crisis.
Origin Energy wants coal supplies for power stations prioritised amid an energy squeeze.
Ahead of a meeting between Energy Minister Chris Bowen and the states on Wednesday to address energy shortages and high prices, Australia’s largest electricity operator said smaller retailers face having to shut down.
“The risk is very high that small, exposed retailers will go under as they grapple with the significant increase in wholesale prices this year, just as we saw in the UK,” Origin chief executive Frank Calabria told the Australian Energy Week conference.
“More than a dozen retailers have stopped selling discounted market offers in the market and are only offering the mandated, regulated default tariffs. You would have also heard about several smaller retailers writing to their customers encouraging them to seek alternative providers to avoid near triple digit percentage price rises.”
The wholesale price of electricity is regularly topping $400 a megawatt hour across the main states in the national electricity market, more than five times last year’s prices, while spot gas on the east coast has jumped up to $50 a gigajoule from less than $10 GJ at the start of this year.
The huge price jumps have triggered broader concerns that smaller Australian electricity operators could follow the fate of UK retailers where nearly 30 energy companies have collapsed after failing to hedge against rising wholesale costs.
Weston Energy, which provides gas to more than 400 companies and government agencies, ceased trading with immediate effect in late May while thousands of households were slugged with a doubling of power prices as retailers passed on surging costs.
The hit to households is also now becoming clearer after with power bills rising by up to hundreds of dollars for some customers after the national regulator announced increases of up to 18 per cent on standing offers from July 1, sparked by surging fuel costs and coal plant breakdowns hiking wholesale prices.
Origin also repeated a call for both government and industry action to help resuscitate the ailing coal sector with a string of major generators broken down or under maintenance resulting in coal output operating at five-year lows.
“Recent coal plant outages, and coal supply and price challenges, have been the main driver of the very high wholesale prices we’re seeing. We must act swiftly, with industry and government working in concert, to bring as much coal supply back into the system as soon as possible, in order to put downwards pressure on the wholesale electricity price,” Mr Calabria said.
Gas producers say they are stepping up output to compensate for the lack of coal in the grid and the Origin chief said bringing coal plants back into the system would ease a squeeze on gas markets which has seen a price cap imposed for multiple east coast states including NSW and Victoria.
“To do this, we also need to look at addressing some of the coal supply issues affecting the sector, including for example, acting with urgency to prioritise rail deliveries to coal fired power stations needing supply,” Mr Calabria said.
“Getting coal plants back in the market, will also reduce the draw on gas-fired generation, alleviating some of the supply and price pressures in the gas market.”
The power giant last week slashed its energy markets earnings forecast for 2022 by a quarter on Wednesday and withdrew earnings guidance for the 2023 financial year amid huge volatility in electricity markets and coal supply problems at its Eraring plant in NSW.
PERRY WILLIAMS SENIOR BUSINESS WRITER
Have received number emails and text messages from my electricity retailer (ReAmped) for a week or more, advising me to find some other company to supply my electricity. Also telling me to look elsewhere ASAP in order for me not to lose out. Even saying I can look for fixed price suppliers. I have checked suppliers websites and comparison websites and have spoken to some of these companies. I have not found any that will 'guarantee'/fix tariff for 12 months (or any term). My understanding is that tariffs will increase 1 July. Some companies have said they will know later this month what their post 1 July tariffs will be. I see no point in changing supplier now, because who knows what they will charge after 1 July. The 'deal' that suits me now might not be so attractive after 1 July. All this had convinced me to get solar panels on our roof. Feed-in tariff will be a consideration (minor). I can only see electricity prices increasing for the next few years, so any solar system that is attractive today will only look better in the future. We have driven our electricity usage down as far as practically possible. Solar technology has probably reached as high a point as it is likely to for some years to come. Government assistance (STC/rebates) is probably as good as it will be for now.Origin is warning that smaller energy suppliers will go broke. Most like due to them locking in low supply pricing contracts with consumers and having no room to move, plus they are only suppliers of energy not producers.
Have received number emails and text messages from my electricity retailer (ReAmped) for a week or more, advising me to find some other company to supply my electricity. Also telling me to look elsewhere ASAP in order for me not to lose out. Even saying I can look for fixed price suppliers. I have checked suppliers websites and comparison websites and have spoken to some of these companies. I have not found any that will 'guarantee'/fix tariff for 12 months (or any term). My understanding is that tariffs will increase 1 July. Some companies have said they will know later this month what their post 1 July tariffs will be. I see no point in changing supplier now, because who knows what they will charge after 1 July. The 'deal' that suits me now might not be so attractive after 1 July. All this had convinced me to get solar panels on our roof. Feed-in tariff will be a consideration (minor). I can only see electricity prices increasing for the next few years, so any solar system that is attractive today will only look better in the future. We have driven our electricity usage down as far as practically possible. Solar technology has probably reached as high a point as it is likely to for some years to come. Government assistance (STC/rebates) is probably as good as it will be for now.
Or, do you think our new government will be generous with regard to solar incentives? We live in Sydney, have good N-facing roof that will hold 6.6kW of panels. Just started looking and expect to pay (after rebates) $4000-$8000 (lowest decent quality panels and inverter with quality installation to mid-range panels and inverter with quality installation). Considered batter(ies), but payback is too long. Just want to ensure inverter is battery ready.
Does anyone know of electricity suppliers that have announced 1 July pricing, or will hold prices for a fixed term??
Note, we buy electricity only, as there is no gas in our area.
Between your daily feed in fee, the limit on overall feed in being paid, you can produce twice as much as you consume (after self consumption) and still pay $90 a month billIn Victoria there are KW limits in at least in some areas on solar generation.
This is where too many consumers feed in power at times of little demand.
Don't know in your area but check before installing.
As noted in another thread, about 27 have now withdrawn their offer to new customers in one or more states.Origin is warning that smaller energy suppliers will go broke. Most like due to them locking in low supply pricing contracts with consumers and having no room to move, plus they are only suppliers of energy not producers.
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