Unless you have the same investment horizon as these guys, it would be advisable to look elsewhere.
ORG - Origin Energy
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Unless you have the same investment horizon as these guys, it would be advisable to look elsewhere.
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Things don't appear to be improving, investing in the energy market in the current climate isn't for the faint hearted IMO.
www.theage.com.au
Origin Energy, one of Australia’s top power and gas suppliers, has posted a $2.29 billion full-year loss as the COVID-19 pandemic and rapid rise of renewable energy hammered prices across the business.
After stripping out one-off items, Origin posted underlying earnings of $318, down 69 per cent from a year ago, but ahead of consensus forecasts for $275.6 million.
Following a year of significant upheaval across the energy sector, Origin this month flagged heavy write-downs due to sharply lower electricity prices and rising costs to fuel its fleet of power stations taking a severe toll. It warned investors that the pain would continue to be felt into 2022.
“Operating conditions were challenging this year due to low prices and the impacts of COVID-19 across our key commodities of electricity, natural gas and oil,” Origin chief executive Frank Calabria said on Thursday.
“Energy Markets headwinds are expected to persist into financial year 2022, though this should be largely offset by the strong performance of our integrated gas business.”
The company declared an unfranked final dividend of 7.5¢ a share, payable to shareholders of record on 8 September.
Loading
Origin and other top power utilities have been facing enormous pressure as the continued flood of cheap power from large-scale wind and solar farms and rooftop solar panels sends daytime wholesale power prices plunging to levels where coal and gas-fired generators are increasingly unable to compete. This year, EnergyAustralia brought forward the closure of Victoria’s Yallourn facility to 2028, four years ahead of schedule.
“Our immediate focus is on capital discipline and cost management to continue to build balance sheet resilience, with a rebound in energy markets earnings expected in financial year 2023,” Mr Calabria said.
Origin cuts back coal power output as green shift slashes prices
The COVID-19 pandemic and rapid rise of renewable energy hammered prices across the business of one of Australia’s top power and gas suppliers.
Origin Energy, one of Australia’s top power and gas suppliers, has posted a $2.29 billion full-year loss as the COVID-19 pandemic and rapid rise of renewable energy hammered prices across the business.
After stripping out one-off items, Origin posted underlying earnings of $318, down 69 per cent from a year ago, but ahead of consensus forecasts for $275.6 million.
Following a year of significant upheaval across the energy sector, Origin this month flagged heavy write-downs due to sharply lower electricity prices and rising costs to fuel its fleet of power stations taking a severe toll. It warned investors that the pain would continue to be felt into 2022.
“Operating conditions were challenging this year due to low prices and the impacts of COVID-19 across our key commodities of electricity, natural gas and oil,” Origin chief executive Frank Calabria said on Thursday.
“Energy Markets headwinds are expected to persist into financial year 2022, though this should be largely offset by the strong performance of our integrated gas business.”
The company declared an unfranked final dividend of 7.5¢ a share, payable to shareholders of record on 8 September.
Loading
Origin and other top power utilities have been facing enormous pressure as the continued flood of cheap power from large-scale wind and solar farms and rooftop solar panels sends daytime wholesale power prices plunging to levels where coal and gas-fired generators are increasingly unable to compete. This year, EnergyAustralia brought forward the closure of Victoria’s Yallourn facility to 2028, four years ahead of schedule.
“Our immediate focus is on capital discipline and cost management to continue to build balance sheet resilience, with a rebound in energy markets earnings expected in financial year 2023,” Mr Calabria said.
Dona Ferentes
Abrió la caja, vio al gatito, y sonrió
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As expected from their trading update at the end of July, Origin Energy has revealed a multi-billion-dollar loss after taking huge write downs in the year to June 30.
What was once a straight forward model, and which worked so well when spun out of Boral all those years ago, has come unstuck.
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Just for background info, comparing Origin with major listed rival AGL:
On the electricity side Origin is net short, they retail more than they generate. That is, much of the electricity they sell is physically generated by others and supplied to Origin either under contract or via the spot market.
In contrast AGL is net long generation. They generate more than they retail and sell the rest either under contract or via the spot market.
Origin operates one coal-fired power station, capacity 2880 MW, and purchases all the coal used from unrelated coal mining companies.
AGL operates three coal-fired plants, total capacity 6530 MW, and supplies a 2210 MW of that with coal from its own wholly owned mine next to the power station. AGL also supplies from this mine 100% of the coal used by another company, Alinta, in a 1170 MW power station located close by.
Origin has a major business producing natural gas and in the production and export of LNG. In contrast raw gas production is a minor sideline business for AGL, the company being primarily a consumer (for gas-fired generation) and retailer of gas produced by others.
Origin has a substantial position in the marketing and physical distribution of LPG within Australia whereas AGL has no major involvement in this activity.
AGL operates a number of conventional hydro facilities, being the third largest hydro operator in terms of annual output. In contrast Origin has a small pumped storage facility in NSW and no major involvement with conventional (non-pumped) hydro.
AGL has had a highly public dispute with the Australian Government and various other disputes in recent times, notably the Victorian government not approving AGL's proposed LNG import terminal in that state. In contrast Origin has been noticeably less visible in terms of political conflict.
AGL is closing 420 MW of coal-fired plant in 2022 and a further 1260 MW in 2023. All of this is located in NSW and uses coal supplied by others.
Origin is closing all coal-fired plant during the 2030-32 period.
AGL is closing or mothballing 680 MW of gas-fired plant in SA between 2020 and late 2022. This could plausibly be returned to service at a future time.
Origin is closing 180 MW of gas-fired plant in SA on the 31st December 2023. This is a permanent closure.
Both companies have large battery projects based at or near existing power station sites.
So the two companies, whilst seemingly similar, are actually quite different.
I've left out mention of others since they're either not ASX listed (for example Energy Australia or the various government owned entities) or are substantially smaller in scale and/or narrower in scope.
Disclosure: I do not hold shares in Origin or AGL.
On the electricity side Origin is net short, they retail more than they generate. That is, much of the electricity they sell is physically generated by others and supplied to Origin either under contract or via the spot market.
In contrast AGL is net long generation. They generate more than they retail and sell the rest either under contract or via the spot market.
Origin operates one coal-fired power station, capacity 2880 MW, and purchases all the coal used from unrelated coal mining companies.
AGL operates three coal-fired plants, total capacity 6530 MW, and supplies a 2210 MW of that with coal from its own wholly owned mine next to the power station. AGL also supplies from this mine 100% of the coal used by another company, Alinta, in a 1170 MW power station located close by.
Origin has a major business producing natural gas and in the production and export of LNG. In contrast raw gas production is a minor sideline business for AGL, the company being primarily a consumer (for gas-fired generation) and retailer of gas produced by others.
Origin has a substantial position in the marketing and physical distribution of LPG within Australia whereas AGL has no major involvement in this activity.
AGL operates a number of conventional hydro facilities, being the third largest hydro operator in terms of annual output. In contrast Origin has a small pumped storage facility in NSW and no major involvement with conventional (non-pumped) hydro.
AGL has had a highly public dispute with the Australian Government and various other disputes in recent times, notably the Victorian government not approving AGL's proposed LNG import terminal in that state. In contrast Origin has been noticeably less visible in terms of political conflict.
AGL is closing 420 MW of coal-fired plant in 2022 and a further 1260 MW in 2023. All of this is located in NSW and uses coal supplied by others.
Origin is closing all coal-fired plant during the 2030-32 period.
AGL is closing or mothballing 680 MW of gas-fired plant in SA between 2020 and late 2022. This could plausibly be returned to service at a future time.
Origin is closing 180 MW of gas-fired plant in SA on the 31st December 2023. This is a permanent closure.
Both companies have large battery projects based at or near existing power station sites.
So the two companies, whilst seemingly similar, are actually quite different.
I've left out mention of others since they're either not ASX listed (for example Energy Australia or the various government owned entities) or are substantially smaller in scale and/or narrower in scope.
Disclosure: I do not hold shares in Origin or AGL.
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| AST | AUSNET SERVICES LTD ORDINARY |
| Balance Date | Dividend Type | Cents per share | Ccy | Franked % | Ex-Dividend Date | Books Close Date | Pay Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/03/2021 | Final | 4.750 | AUD | 40.00 | 20/05/2021 | 21/05/2021 | 24/06/2021 |
| 30/09/2020 | Interim | 4.750 | AUD | 40.00 | 16/11/2020 | 17/11/2020 | 17/12/2020 |
| 31/03/2020 | Final | 5.100 | AUD | 50.00 | 20/05/2020 | 21/05/2020 | 25/06/2020 |
| 30/09/2019 | Interim | 5.100 | AUD | 50.00 | 18/11/2019 | 19/11/2019 | 19/12/2019 |
| 31/03/2019 | Final | 4.860 | AUD | 45.00 | 21/05/2019 | 22/05/2019 | 27/06/2019 |
| 30/09/2018 | Interim | 4.860 | AUD | 40.00 | 19/11/2018 | 20/11/2018 | 20/12/2018 |
| 31/03/2018 | Final | 4.620 | AUD | 0.00 | 22/05/2018 | 23/05/2018 | 28/06/2018 |
| 30/09/2017 | Interim | 4.630 | AUD | 0.00 | 20/11/2017 | 21/11/2017 | 21/12/2017 |
| 31/03/2017 | Final | 4.400 | AUD | 0.00 | 24/05/2017 | 25/05/2017 | 27/06/2017 |
| 31/03/2017 | Special | 1.000 | AUD | 0.00 | 24/05/2017 | 25/05/2017 | 27/06/2017 |
| 30/09/2016 | Interim | 4.400 | AUD | 50.00 | 24/11/2016 | 25/11/2016 | 22/12/2016 |
closed @ $1.97 a share
| SKI | SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE STAPLED US PROHIBIT. |
| Balance Date | Dividend Type | Cents per share | Ccy | Franked % | Ex-Dividend Date | Books Close Date | Pay Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06/2021 | Interim | 6.250 | AUD | 0.00 | 07/07/2021 | 08/07/2021 | 15/09/2021 |
| 31/12/2020 | Final | 6.500 | AUD | 0.00 | 30/12/2020 | 31/12/2020 | 15/03/2021 |
| 30/06/2020 | Interim | 7.000 | AUD | 0.00 | 03/09/2020 | 04/09/2020 | 15/09/2020 |
| 31/12/2019 | Final | 7.500 | AUD | 0.00 | 03/03/2020 | 04/03/2020 | 13/03/2020 |
| 30/06/2019 | Interim | 7.500 | AUD | 0.00 | 03/09/2019 | 04/09/2019 | 13/09/2019 |
| 31/12/2018 | Final | 8.000 | AUD | 0.00 | 05/03/2019 | 06/03/2019 | 15/03/2019 |
| 30/06/2018 | Interim | 8.000 | AUD | 0.00 | 04/09/2018 | 05/09/2018 | 14/09/2018 |
| 31/12/2017 | Final | 7.625 | AUD | 0.00 | 05/03/2018 | 06/03/2018 | 15/03/2018 |
| 30/06/2017 | Interim | 7.625 | AUD | 0.00 | 05/09/2017 | 06/09/2017 | 15/09/2017 |
| 31/12/2016 | Final | 7.250 | AUD | 0.00 | 03/03/2017 | 06/03/2017 | 15/03/2017 |
closed @ $2.77 a share
i hold both AST and SKI , and have previously worked rather hard for a graceful exit of ORG
DYOR
if the metrics in Oz don't impress and you are not bothered by illiquid stocks NZ has several companies , CEN ( a divestment of ORG ) , MEZ , MCY , and GNE the last three have the NZ government as a significant share-holder
( i hold the 4 NZ power companies mentioned )
these utility companies highlight the risk in geo-politics and climate policies
JohnDe
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So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
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6 and a half years later the SP is back to 6 dollars 15 or so, up about 50% in just 6 months, some talk of a capital return.
JohnDe
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No slowing down.
Craton
Mostly passive, contrarian.
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As per @JohnDe's post above:
First thing that came to mind was ScoMo's image holding a lump of coal in his hand. A reality world's apart...
On topic.
Albeit a tad slow, reactive not proactive, good to note that ORG is finally taking action. I was really surprised when they sold off that solar window technology which, from memory, was cutting edge and at the time, returning some of the highest PV conversion rates.
This was one of the main reasons I added ORG to my holdings, thinking ORG was on the proactive path to cleaner energy.
The old shoulda in that I didn't unload at the 2018 highs like I did with STO.
I would expect ORG can reverse those eye watering losses and turn their big ship around. Apparently the market seems to think so too.
First thing that came to mind was ScoMo's image holding a lump of coal in his hand. A reality world's apart...
On topic.
Albeit a tad slow, reactive not proactive, good to note that ORG is finally taking action. I was really surprised when they sold off that solar window technology which, from memory, was cutting edge and at the time, returning some of the highest PV conversion rates.
This was one of the main reasons I added ORG to my holdings, thinking ORG was on the proactive path to cleaner energy.
The old shoulda in that I didn't unload at the 2018 highs like I did with STO.
I would expect ORG can reverse those eye watering losses and turn their big ship around. Apparently the market seems to think so too.
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As a brief comment:
Biggest problem with Eraring is the price of coal has gone through the roof to the point that it, and indeed all black coal-fired power stations, are uneconomic. Even if the asset itself is written off completely the fuel's simply too expensive.
Bearing in mind the declining gas reserves and production in Australia as noted recently in an ACCC report, and the urgency of getting new supply online, a key for Origin will be what happens with the company's prospects in the Beetaloo Basin (NT). The company is somewhat better positioned than others there who'll be more exposed by having to import the stuff via one of the 5 proposed LNG import terminals (2 each in NSW and Vic, one in SA though it's unlikely all would be built in practice).
JohnDe
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Update on operating conditions and guidance
Origin Energy Limited (Origin) provides the following update on operating conditions and
earnings guidance.
There is currently extreme volatility across commodity markets, driven by a combination of
global energy supply and security concerns, exacerbated by the impact of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine, with subsequent unprecedented increases in international energy prices
including coal, gas and oil. Domestically, coal plant outages and high coal and gas prices
have contributed to a steep escalation in wholesale electricity prices.
The following guidance is based on current market conditions and the regulatory
environment. Ongoing volatility in market conditions is likely and may adversely impact
operations.
FY2022
For the 2022 financial year, Origin expects consolidated group Underlying EBITDA to be
around the mid-point of the original guidance range of $1,950 - $2,250 million. Higher
earnings from Integrated Gas as Australia Pacific LNG benefited from strong commodity
prices, are expected to offset a decline in Energy Markets earnings.
Integrated Gas and Corporate Underlying EBITDA is expected to be higher at $1,700 -
$1,800 million1
, compared to the original guidance of $1,500 - $1,650 million, driven primarily
by higher oil and LNG prices, with production and operating and capital expenditure at
Australia Pacific LNG in line with expectations. The cash distribution to Origin net of oil
hedging loss is expected to be around $1.4 billion, compared with the original guidance of
>$1.1 billion.
In Energy Markets, ongoing challenges with coal supply have been impacting Eraring Power
Station throughout FY2022. However, the situation has deteriorated significantly in recent
weeks, with material under-delivery of contracted coal compared to expectations, and with
Centennial Coal notifying Origin of further production constraints at its Mandalong mine.
Deliveries from the Mandalong mine are expected to be interrupted during the remainder of
FY2022 and into the first half of FY2023. Equipment supply chain delays are also expected
to impact coal deliveries in FY2023.
The recent material under-delivery of coal to Eraring results in lower output from the plant,
additional replacement coal purchases at significantly higher prices, and is being
exacerbated by coal delivery constraints via rail. Despite positioning the year with a relatively
low short position across all states, the lower output from Eraring results in a greater
exposure to the purchase of electricity at current high spot prices in order to meet customer
demand.
1
Based on an effective lagged APLNG oil price of US$74/bbl, weighted average JKM price of US$28/mmbtu and
AUD:USD exchange rate of 0.72.
As a result, Origin now expects Energy Markets Underlying EBITDA in FY2022 to be $310 -
$460 million, lower than the original guidance range of $450 - $600 million.
FY2023
Origin had previously provided guidance for Energy Markets Underlying EBITDA for FY2023
of $600 - $850 million. Since the time FY2023 guidance was provided, there have been
material developments in global and Australian energy markets.
The challenges with coal delivery to Eraring Power Station are expected to persist into
FY2023. This is expected to result in a material increase in coal purchasing costs given high
coal prices and continued exposure to high spot electricity prices. While Origin has worked
closely with coal suppliers to secure additional coal supply by rail, there are limitations to the
amount of coal that can be delivered to the plant by this method. Therefore, there is
uncertainty regarding the plant’s output in FY2023. Origin is part-way through finalising coal
contracting arrangements for FY2023.
Higher domestic gas prices are expected to provide a benefit in FY2023. Origin holds a
largely fixed price gas portfolio in FY2023 which is expected to benefit from higher market
prices.
The current high commodity price environment is a net benefit for Integrated Gas, with
higher sale prices more than offsetting higher input prices, including power costs.
Due to the factors outlined above, there is a very high degree of uncertainty around the
range of earnings outcomes for the 2023 financial year. As a result, Origin has withdrawn all
guidance for FY2023. Origin will continue to assess the outlook, with a view to providing an
update at full year results in August.
Separately, Origin has now completed $185 million of its targeted $250 million share buyback as announced in March 2022. The buy-back is expected to be completed over coming
months.
Management will hold an investor and analyst call at 11:30am (AEST) this morning. Dial in
details are on the company’s website.
===================================================================================================
i do not hold this share ( but have in the past ) ( exited this in December 2017 @ $9.45 AND a profit )
Origin Energy Limited (Origin) provides the following update on operating conditions and
earnings guidance.
There is currently extreme volatility across commodity markets, driven by a combination of
global energy supply and security concerns, exacerbated by the impact of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine, with subsequent unprecedented increases in international energy prices
including coal, gas and oil. Domestically, coal plant outages and high coal and gas prices
have contributed to a steep escalation in wholesale electricity prices.
The following guidance is based on current market conditions and the regulatory
environment. Ongoing volatility in market conditions is likely and may adversely impact
operations.
FY2022
For the 2022 financial year, Origin expects consolidated group Underlying EBITDA to be
around the mid-point of the original guidance range of $1,950 - $2,250 million. Higher
earnings from Integrated Gas as Australia Pacific LNG benefited from strong commodity
prices, are expected to offset a decline in Energy Markets earnings.
Integrated Gas and Corporate Underlying EBITDA is expected to be higher at $1,700 -
$1,800 million1
, compared to the original guidance of $1,500 - $1,650 million, driven primarily
by higher oil and LNG prices, with production and operating and capital expenditure at
Australia Pacific LNG in line with expectations. The cash distribution to Origin net of oil
hedging loss is expected to be around $1.4 billion, compared with the original guidance of
>$1.1 billion.
In Energy Markets, ongoing challenges with coal supply have been impacting Eraring Power
Station throughout FY2022. However, the situation has deteriorated significantly in recent
weeks, with material under-delivery of contracted coal compared to expectations, and with
Centennial Coal notifying Origin of further production constraints at its Mandalong mine.
Deliveries from the Mandalong mine are expected to be interrupted during the remainder of
FY2022 and into the first half of FY2023. Equipment supply chain delays are also expected
to impact coal deliveries in FY2023.
The recent material under-delivery of coal to Eraring results in lower output from the plant,
additional replacement coal purchases at significantly higher prices, and is being
exacerbated by coal delivery constraints via rail. Despite positioning the year with a relatively
low short position across all states, the lower output from Eraring results in a greater
exposure to the purchase of electricity at current high spot prices in order to meet customer
demand.
1
Based on an effective lagged APLNG oil price of US$74/bbl, weighted average JKM price of US$28/mmbtu and
AUD:USD exchange rate of 0.72.
As a result, Origin now expects Energy Markets Underlying EBITDA in FY2022 to be $310 -
$460 million, lower than the original guidance range of $450 - $600 million.
FY2023
Origin had previously provided guidance for Energy Markets Underlying EBITDA for FY2023
of $600 - $850 million. Since the time FY2023 guidance was provided, there have been
material developments in global and Australian energy markets.
The challenges with coal delivery to Eraring Power Station are expected to persist into
FY2023. This is expected to result in a material increase in coal purchasing costs given high
coal prices and continued exposure to high spot electricity prices. While Origin has worked
closely with coal suppliers to secure additional coal supply by rail, there are limitations to the
amount of coal that can be delivered to the plant by this method. Therefore, there is
uncertainty regarding the plant’s output in FY2023. Origin is part-way through finalising coal
contracting arrangements for FY2023.
Higher domestic gas prices are expected to provide a benefit in FY2023. Origin holds a
largely fixed price gas portfolio in FY2023 which is expected to benefit from higher market
prices.
The current high commodity price environment is a net benefit for Integrated Gas, with
higher sale prices more than offsetting higher input prices, including power costs.
Due to the factors outlined above, there is a very high degree of uncertainty around the
range of earnings outcomes for the 2023 financial year. As a result, Origin has withdrawn all
guidance for FY2023. Origin will continue to assess the outlook, with a view to providing an
update at full year results in August.
Separately, Origin has now completed $185 million of its targeted $250 million share buyback as announced in March 2022. The buy-back is expected to be completed over coming
months.
Management will hold an investor and analyst call at 11:30am (AEST) this morning. Dial in
details are on the company’s website.
===================================================================================================
i do not hold this share ( but have in the past ) ( exited this in December 2017 @ $9.45 AND a profit )
JohnDe
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Origin is warning that smaller energy suppliers will go broke. Most like due to them locking in low supply pricing contracts with consumers and having no room to move, plus they are only suppliers of energy not producers.
Electricity retailers face collapse, Origin Energy warns
Origin Energy has predicted smaller electricity retailers face collapse due to soaring wholesale energy prices and has called on governments to prioritise coal supply for power stations to ease a growing energy crisis.
Origin Energy wants coal supplies for power stations prioritised amid an energy squeeze.
Ahead of a meeting between Energy Minister Chris Bowen and the states on Wednesday to address energy shortages and high prices, Australia’s largest electricity operator said smaller retailers face having to shut down.
“The risk is very high that small, exposed retailers will go under as they grapple with the significant increase in wholesale prices this year, just as we saw in the UK,” Origin chief executive Frank Calabria told the Australian Energy Week conference.
“More than a dozen retailers have stopped selling discounted market offers in the market and are only offering the mandated, regulated default tariffs. You would have also heard about several smaller retailers writing to their customers encouraging them to seek alternative providers to avoid near triple digit percentage price rises.”
The wholesale price of electricity is regularly topping $400 a megawatt hour across the main states in the national electricity market, more than five times last year’s prices, while spot gas on the east coast has jumped up to $50 a gigajoule from less than $10 GJ at the start of this year.
The huge price jumps have triggered broader concerns that smaller Australian electricity operators could follow the fate of UK retailers where nearly 30 energy companies have collapsed after failing to hedge against rising wholesale costs.
Weston Energy, which provides gas to more than 400 companies and government agencies, ceased trading with immediate effect in late May while thousands of households were slugged with a doubling of power prices as retailers passed on surging costs.
The hit to households is also now becoming clearer after with power bills rising by up to hundreds of dollars for some customers after the national regulator announced increases of up to 18 per cent on standing offers from July 1, sparked by surging fuel costs and coal plant breakdowns hiking wholesale prices.
Origin also repeated a call for both government and industry action to help resuscitate the ailing coal sector with a string of major generators broken down or under maintenance resulting in coal output operating at five-year lows.
“Recent coal plant outages, and coal supply and price challenges, have been the main driver of the very high wholesale prices we’re seeing. We must act swiftly, with industry and government working in concert, to bring as much coal supply back into the system as soon as possible, in order to put downwards pressure on the wholesale electricity price,” Mr Calabria said.
Gas producers say they are stepping up output to compensate for the lack of coal in the grid and the Origin chief said bringing coal plants back into the system would ease a squeeze on gas markets which has seen a price cap imposed for multiple east coast states including NSW and Victoria.
“To do this, we also need to look at addressing some of the coal supply issues affecting the sector, including for example, acting with urgency to prioritise rail deliveries to coal fired power stations needing supply,” Mr Calabria said.
“Getting coal plants back in the market, will also reduce the draw on gas-fired generation, alleviating some of the supply and price pressures in the gas market.”
The power giant last week slashed its energy markets earnings forecast for 2022 by a quarter on Wednesday and withdrew earnings guidance for the 2023 financial year amid huge volatility in electricity markets and coal supply problems at its Eraring plant in NSW.
PERRY WILLIAMS SENIOR BUSINESS WRITER
Have received number emails and text messages from my electricity retailer (ReAmped) for a week or more, advising me to find some other company to supply my electricity. Also telling me to look elsewhere ASAP in order for me not to lose out. Even saying I can look for fixed price suppliers. I have checked suppliers websites and comparison websites and have spoken to some of these companies. I have not found any that will 'guarantee'/fix tariff for 12 months (or any term). My understanding is that tariffs will increase 1 July. Some companies have said they will know later this month what their post 1 July tariffs will be. I see no point in changing supplier now, because who knows what they will charge after 1 July. The 'deal' that suits me now might not be so attractive after 1 July. All this had convinced me to get solar panels on our roof. Feed-in tariff will be a consideration (minor). I can only see electricity prices increasing for the next few years, so any solar system that is attractive today will only look better in the future. We have driven our electricity usage down as far as practically possible. Solar technology has probably reached as high a point as it is likely to for some years to come. Government assistance (STC/rebates) is probably as good as it will be for now.
Or, do you think our new government will be generous with regard to solar incentives? We live in Sydney, have good N-facing roof that will hold 6.6kW of panels. Just started looking and expect to pay (after rebates) $4000-$8000 (lowest decent quality panels and inverter with quality installation to mid-range panels and inverter with quality installation). Considered batter(ies), but payback is too long. Just want to ensure inverter is battery ready.
Does anyone know of electricity suppliers that have announced 1 July pricing, or will hold prices for a fixed term??
Note, we buy electricity only, as there is no gas in our area.
JohnDe
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I read an article and your energy suppliers was mentioned for exactly what you are saying. Their aim is to get customers to move on before the company is forced to put prices up (depending on the fine print on individual contracts) or close the doors.
Keep looking, the big suppliers may offer something just to get more users on their books.
My timing was good - I've been with Origin for many years. a couple of weeks ago I called and requested a price cut for loyalty or I'll move on. They gave me a 11% discount off my usual price for a year. Actually, I didn't call, asked my wife to do it but I'm taking the credit for it
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In Victoria there are KW limits in at least in some areas on solar generation.
This is where too many consumers feed in power at times of little demand.
Don't know in your area but check before installing.
This is where too many consumers feed in power at times of little demand.
Don't know in your area but check before installing.
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Between your daily feed in fee, the limit on overall feed in being paid, you can produce twice as much as you consume (after self consumption) and still pay $90 a month bill
Our new place.
Will be off the grid as soon as i move next
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Coincidentally I just got around to reading an email alert from Greg Canavan's Investment Advisory and he recommended subscriber clients to sell half their ORG shares today. He still likes ORG's prospects longer term but the withdrawal of FY23 profit guidance has made him cautious. While noting that the LNG gas producing division will bump revenue, he believes the coal shortage and price strength will persist for a while. He says the Eraring coal-fired power station in NSW has not been getting enough coal from its contractor, forcing ORG to buy coal on the heated spot market as well as buying electricity itself to fulfill supply contracts.
Fwiw, his subscribers can still sell half their ORG shares at around a 35% profit if bought at time of his recommendation.
Not Held
Fwiw, his subscribers can still sell half their ORG shares at around a 35% profit if bought at time of his recommendation.
Not Held
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As noted in another thread, about 27 have now withdrawn their offer to new customers in one or more states.
Most of those won't be going broke but they're in a position where growing the business is the last thing they want to do, since that just results in a net short position on their supply side, so they're shutting the door to new customers. Origin is one of those who'll likely gain long term given they can withstand the short term pain.
The one "red flag" I'll sound is with regard to the sum total of being an LNG exporter, one of the big 3 gentailers and having coal supply issues at Eraring. That environment comes with massive scrutiny and politics and they'll have to tread extremely carefully there as will all companies in the sector.
Dona Ferentes
Abrió la caja, vio al gatito, y sonrió
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Brookfield Asset Management and private equity firm MidOcean Energy have lobbed a surprise $18.4 billion takeover bid for Origin Energy, after twice increasing their offer price.
The pair are offering $9.00 a share cash for Origin, after raising their initial bid from $7.95 a share.
Five year chart
The pair are offering $9.00 a share cash for Origin, after raising their initial bid from $7.95 a share.
Five year chart