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ORG - Origin Energy

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The Captain said:
My bet is that Origin will fall and my target is around the $12.80 mark. When this happens it may bounce back to current levels. But mine is just an opinion and you should do tour own research.
Cheers and happy trading.
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Captain, That EW count looks like another example of fitting the count to the chart and disregarding so many of the tops and bottoms. For a start, I would have put the 1 around 14.80. It seems EW may want to do this to ensure the W3 is thelongest which is really counterintitive to the overall shape of the chart. Can you fill in all the subdividing and explanation as to why we just hit a 4 and heading lower?
 
jesus, dont know if i believe that... sharp looking drop.... i hope you're right - will certainly get in at $12.80. but difficult to hold out and wait for that price to come along unless we find some more bears in this forrest
 
EW is not an exact science, the same chart as of end of May looked to be EW up predicting price of around $18. I bought in at $15.00 which was too early, I should have waited for trigger which never came and was lucky to get out at a small loss before the dive to around $13.50.

Oscillator moving down now and macd cross are now both indications that the stock looks set to move down.

Remember its just my opinion. The overall market is on the up so betting against it is on the fools side. As I said my target is $13.80 and I will then look at it again. It may not get there but I do not hold at the present and will look to buy at lower levels.

Cheers and Happy Trading
 
OK result, future growth pretty well assured.

Happy to reinvest my dividend to build up the holding long term.

Once the LNG is built and the cash flows in, a few years away, this company will be rerated. Nice safe hold in this environment. My purchase price was $14.20 so am slightly underwater.
 
Knobby22 said:
Once the LNG is built and the cash flows in, a few years away, this company will be rerated. Nice safe hold in this environment. My purchase price was $14.20 so am slightly underwater.
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Does anybody know if the company has stated an estimated return on capital invested for their investmentment in the LNG infrastructure.
 
Tysonboss1 said:
Does anybody know if the company has stated an estimated return on capital invested for their investmentment in the LNG infrastructure.
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Go to the Origin energy website. http://www.originenergy.com.au/55/Investor-presentations
Go to Australian Pacific LNG Final investment decision. The total project is to cost 20 bil. Structure of the partners is shown. (I think it has changed since then).

The return is complex but once both trains are built they expect 7 billion per year!
They expect the project to go 20 years. 1st gas train mid 2015, second train 2016.

Biggest threat is Bob Katters party or the Greens win parliament.
 
Anyone got any thoughts on this? Especially with all the action today - 5.3% drop?
 
So_Cynical said:
Yet its about time to jump in id reckon.
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Massive buying on Friday might see 10.20 established as the floor. Earnings are forecast to remain flat over the next two years with only a yield of 4.8% on Friday's close forecast over that period too. I'm not sure that even at the $10 mark it is worth buying into this stock now when earnings growth is not forecast until the second half of the decade.
 

Yer but the growth will come, i mean the SP wont just stay at the current level...Gas and energy retailing, it has natural demand and inflation growth built in.
 
Looks like ORG is at about $12.10 at present.... any thoughts? something to buy and hold onto perhaps...
 
ORG - OMG!....

Bought into this recently on strong recs from Comsec and Morningstar, but it has taken a beating since I bought it. I've tried to see what the recent announcements have been, but can't see a reason for any panic or shorting. Am I missing something?
 
Re: ORG - OMG!....

sorry i don't mean to sound like a pr#$k but let that be a lesson to not blindly trust broker recommendations. i did the same thing too when i was starting out in the early 2000s so you are not alone there. at the time all the brokers were saying buy up telstra, it's a strong outperform etc. so i did, and look where that went. i panicked and sold out, although in hindsight that turned out to be a decent move as after all these years it STILL has not gotten back to the level i sold out at (although it is getting close and i have to admit, it has been trending nicely for a while now).

i can laugh about it now, as the 6k or so that i lost to telstra would barely make a dent in my present day portfolio, but it really hurt back then and was a painful reminder that tuition fees at the school of hard knocks can sometimes be the most expensive of all. i now view broker recommendations with a healthy dose of skepticism and if i can't form my own opinion on something, i won't trade it, even if all the brokers are going nuts over it. count yourself lucky you didn't follow the broker recommendations on NCM when it was around $40, from memory i think the commsec consensus showed 5 strong buys and 3 holds!

NB. i am not implying that you should panic and sell out of ORG, as i did with TLS! i haven't been following ORG though so unfortunately don't have any real thoughts on the stock itself. but you can't ignore the possibility that there is no underlying reason - things go up, things go down. that's simply what the market does day to day. now if you got that recommendation from an analyst research note (as opposed to seeing on the consensus recommendation that most brokers had buy on it), and that research note spelt out the reasons why they recommended a buy, and you understood and agreed with those reasons, then you should be reasonably confident that they'll do well over the medium-long term so there should be no reason to panic over a few falls in the short term. that's just the market doing what the market does, it's just background noise in the context of a medium-long term investment.

different story if you're a short term trader like some of us here, and not an investor, then you do have to pay attention to the day to day movements (or even movements broken down into shorter intervals for the day traders), but in that case broker recommendations are probably not the best way to go about it as analyst research notes tend to be geared towards a timeframe of 6-12 months.
 
and please accept my apologies for being presumptuous if you did not blindly trust the broker recommendations and did in fact weigh things up before diving in. it just gives the impression that you did when you say you "bought into it on strong recs..."
 
Re: ORG - OMG!....

princeplanet said:
Bought into this recently on strong recs from Comsec and Morningstar, but it has taken a beating since I bought it. I've tried to see what the recent announcements have been, but can't see a reason for any panic or shorting. Am I missing something?
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ORG had a very weak H1 report and the stock fell over 10% upon that release back in Feb. Recently I've glanced various analyst commentaries about downside risk to ORG's earnings due to their electricity business (sorry I can't be more specific as I only glanced at those comments) so perhaps holders are reducing exposure ahead of its reporting mid-late Aug.

With regards to following recommendations...

Analysts have their views and assumptions regarding the future and they make a recommendation based on those assumptions. Those assumptions may or may not turn out to be facts so recommendations may turn out to be incorrect.

The other thing about recommendations is that sometimes you find that the analyst price target trails the share price downwards. The company issues a profit downgrade, share price falls a lot, analyst puts in the new information and spits out a new target price that is much lower than the target price of the last recommendation, but is higher than the current share price to still warrant a buy call. They can do this downgrade after downgrade, and the share price may be a lot lower than the time of the initial buy recommendation - yet the recommendation has never changed!

Not saying that's happening with ORG - just my general perspective on how analysts work.
 
Re: ORG - OMG!....

princeplanet said:
Bought into this recently on strong recs from Comsec and Morningstar, but it has taken a beating since I bought it. I've tried to see what the recent announcements have been, but can't see a reason for any panic or shorting. Am I missing something?
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Had to laugh at this. Sorry. See if you can find a history of recommendations on ORG. From memory they've been at BUY or ACCUMULATE for the last 4 years, possibly longer. To see an extreme example of analysts being wrong see if you can find the graph showing the consensus target price vs actual price for ENRON as it came crashing down. Spectacularly educational.

Fundamentally ORG have a massive market share on wholesale and retail electricity. They've also got some massive gas projects coming online in the next few years. Proximity to Asia = Awesome! A decent portion of the gas has been presold which has locked in some revenue. They also have one of the largest green energy porfolios in Aus and have a very decent voluntary takeup of their green energy product which funds their portfolio. Additionally, contrary to commentary, I always felt the carbon price would benefit ORG as they found ways to swing it to a positive.

Going against them, and momentum appears to be growing, is the US gas boom forcing prices down. Also the growing anger/resolve which may result in government intervention against gold-plating of infrastructure which has delivered massive profits to the companies who own and/or construct/install the plant/infrastructure. There's also the concern regarding decreasing demand driven through efficiencies and changes in behaviour. Not sure of the significance of each of these factors to their bottom line.

I bought into them around $14 then doubled up at $16 (with a SPP I think) so not particularly happy so far. I'm holding as a significant part of my portfolio and think they're a long term hold for growth and yield, but certainly not the shining star I thought they'd be.
 
The market is concerned about a number of things with respect to ORG:

1. Near term earnings outlook as previously mentioned above
2. Prospect of a capital raising. S&P have recently downgraded ORG to BBB from BBB+. With lower earnings and the funding of APLNG continuing, the market is concerned ORG needs to raise close to $1bn despite management insisting they do not need to.
 
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