ORG - Origin Energy

[Porper]

Well, whatever wave count it was, it's turned into a bit of a fizzer :microwave

Out today at $6.97.

GP

Sure is subjective, I have been following ORG closely waiting for wave 3 to start, which I believe it now will (retraced between 50-70% from wave 1).

Now am I brave enough to buy

 

[Ann]

...and my chart observations if I may?......

 

[RichKid]

...and my chart observations if I may?......

Nice chart Ann, the angle of this recent fall suggests it's not over yet, heading lower imho but I'm taking it day by day.

 

[Ann]

Nice chart Ann, the angle of this recent fall suggests it's not over yet, heading lower imho but I'm taking it day by day.

Thanks Rich Kid,

I called this completely incorrectly in the past. I ignored the inicators but just saw a magnificent flag on a flagpole. It initially had a very good break up, I was all set to congratulate myself on a good chart reading and the jolly think went and dumped on me. I wasn't in but never the less, quite disappointing when it is so incorrect.

In future, I am going to give the indicators priority in an assessment if they are in such negative territory as they were with ORG.

 

[RichKid]

Thanks Rich Kid,

I called this completely incorrectly in the past. I ignored the inicators but just saw a magnificent flag on a flagpole. It initially had a very good break up, I was all set to congratulate myself on a good chart reading and the jolly think went and dumped on me. I wasn't in but never the less, quite disappointing when it is so incorrect.

In future, I am going to give the indicators priority in an assessment if they are in such negative territory as they were with ORG.

Hi Ann,
I've made a mess of ORG too but the losses were as planned so it's ok. Flags are supposed to be continuation patterns so if it's within a range I'd assume it's less reliable, also saw a few flags that had failed in ORG recently too so discounted it for that reason too. Good chart to learn from.

 

[Porper]

Hi Ann,
I've made a mess of ORG too but the losses were as planned so it's ok. Flags are supposed to be continuation patterns so if it's within a range I'd assume it's less reliable, also saw a few flags that had failed in ORG recently too so discounted it for that reason too. Good chart to learn from.

Certainly isn't looking positive at the moment.I don't follow ORG fundamentally so who knows why it is falling.

Hindsight is great, but the buyers ran out of steam right before the recent high followed by very heavy volume once the rot set in.

As a matter of interest E.Wave has not been disproven yet, wave 3 could easily start from here, although wouldn't bet my mortgage on it

I wasn't brave enough to buy soley on the little knowledge I have on E.Wave but I wouldn't count ORG out yet.

 

[RichKid]

As a matter of interest E.Wave has not been disproven yet, wave 3 could easily start from here, although wouldn't bet my mortgage on it

I wasn't brave enough to buy soley on the little knowledge I have on E.Wave but I wouldn't count ORG out yet.

Hi Porper,
Best EW in my amateurish view is: end of A-B-C correction to wave 1 and start of wave 3. I'm not game to trade it though til we have confirmation. Looks like we've got some buyers atm as there is recent high volume with prices going sideways over the last few days. If I had to bet I'd still be betting downwards to support.

 

[imaginator]

hey guys,
ORG has new news today. Whats happening, trading halt for so many days?

What do u think the opening price will be?

 

[mit]

It's halted so that Origin can do a share placement with the insto's to help pay for it's $1.2b purchase.

As for the price on open. I have no idea. It will depend on brokers recommendations. I think that it was a good purchase for Origin but the brokers may concentrate on the extra debt and mark it down. I have given up trying to predict market reactions.

Michael

 

[mit]

Origin's share price has certainly popped higher over the last full week. There has been rumours of AGL heading a group to take over ORG. With the current takeover frenzy I think that this is likely that AGL or ORG will be taken over, I can't see that one can take over the other without the ACCC getting upset as they share the lion's share in all gas/electricity market segments except possibly generation.

I'm more TA than FA but when the price stalls a bit I might take a small short here. Ofcourse this is my opinion and AGL might be writing the press release as I write this.

Michael

 

[Sean K]

Origin's share price has certainly popped higher over the last full week. There has been rumours of AGL heading a group to take over ORG. With the current takeover frenzy I think that this is likely that AGL or ORG will be taken over, I can't see that one can take over the other without the ACCC getting upset as they share the lion's share in all gas/electricity market segments except possibly generation.

I'm more TA than FA but when the price stalls a bit I might take a small short here. Ofcourse this is my opinion and AGL might be writing the press release as I write this.

Michael

Would have liked to have picked this up in Sep. Great run. This is all based on the TO rumours Michael? Would be hard to see these merging but we've seen some doozies lately: Patrick/Tol, AGL/Alinta, BHP/RIO (now there's a match!)

 

[mit]

Would have liked to have picked this up in Sep. Great run. This is all based on the TO rumours Michael? Would be hard to see these merging but we've seen some doozies lately: Patrick/Tol, AGL/Alinta, BHP/RIO (now there's a match!)

Same here. Yes just based on what I could google. I think that ORG could be a takeover target but not by AGL. I'll broaden this to say that any large Australian company without too much debt and a reasonable PE will be the subject to at least takeover rumours.

For the next six months the best strategy could be to identify these companies and to buy into them during a pullback and sell when they surge.

MIT

 

[Sean K]

Same here. Yes just based on what I could google. I think that ORG could be a takeover target but not by AGL. I'll broaden this to say that any large Australian company without too much debt and a reasonable PE will be the subject to at least takeover rumours.

For the next six months the best strategy could be to identify these companies and to buy into them during a pullback and sell when they surge.

MIT

Well, looks like they will, but will the ACCC allow it?

 

[REA]

Origin shares reached $8.93 today up 35c, it was announced ACCC is looking into the takeover. Meanwhile Origin directors today offered shareholders $5,000 worth of shares at the price of $7.10 per share. It is hard to know which way this takeover is the best financially for shareholders.

 

[mit]

No sign of weakness in the uptrend. A few hurdles yet. The negotiation with the ACCC will be interesting around what they will need to give up to get the go ahead. Give up too much and you just create another large competitor.

It would be hard for Origin as well. It would be hard to give up a company you have built up and accept a demotion or redundancies. Although they wont have much choice unless they can come up with an argument as to why Origin would be better as a standalone company.

MIT

 

[FAT ALBERT]

Origin shares reached $8.93 today up 35c, it was announced ACCC is looking into the takeover. Meanwhile Origin directors today offered shareholders $5,000 worth of shares at the price of $7.10 per share. It is hard to know which way this takeover is the best financially for shareholders.

Hi all new boy here, could anyone tell me if there are reasons why I shouldn't buy these shares. It looks ok to me but I'm only guesssing...

 

[REA]

Hi Fat Albert

The offer of $7.10 shares that I wrote of were for shareholders as of the 8th January 2007 so that share purchase plan is no longer available.

The origin share price has been slipping from almost $10.00 over the past 3 weeks maybe shareholders cashing in existing shares to buy into the new shares, I dont know if that may continue in the short term. There is also a lot of uncertainty re takeovers.

 

[purple]

ORG is picking up lately; could it be breaking out of its 5 month consolidation, what with all the current hubbub about green energy:

http://www.smh.com.au/news/investment/green-technology-gets-hotter/2007/06/11/1181414207082.html

here's the part ORG got mentioned ;

...Even with a carbon scheme on the horizon, green investing is not especially straightforward. The use of renewable energy around the world is booming but this doesn't necessarily translate into good investments or returns. The idea might be appealing - but how to play it?

The high-risk option is to try to pick winners from the mixed bag of renewable energy companies listed on the ASX.

Among the 50-plus renewable or sustainable energy companies there are some with a sound track record - but there are also plenty of others which are in very early stages of development, have unproven technologies or have no earnings or management history.

In other words, at the smaller end, the companies are high-risk investments and not suitable for more than a small part of any share portfolio. A safer bet is to look for the big energy companies that are investing heavily in renewable assets or technologies.

Origin Energy, for example, is an energy retailer, has interests in oil and gas exploration and production, power generation and distribution of gas. In recent years, it has been re-investing some of its huge cash flow into renewable energy, including solar and geothermal....

anyone still watching this one?

 

[imaginator]

ya ORG always on my watch list. That day when it went from 9.3 to 9.58, then it had a trading halt. After announcement it shot to 9.78. Now how did those fellas know there was going to be an announcement and pushed the price up? Insider trading?

send me a private message if you know anything about this stock

 

[chops_a_must]

Looking pretty good now. Not quite an outstanding breakout, but definitely a breakout. With electricity prices increasing up to 800%, the next financial report is likely to be a goodun.

A nice spread of energy assets, including enviro-tech (which will be helpful coming up to the federal election) and strength in the SP regardless of market conditions, makes its prospects rather bright.

Plus, four directors increasing their stakes quite substantially, gives one the confidence to back it in.

(Disclosure: now holding)

Cheers,
Chops.