NYSE Dow Jones finished today at:

[bigdog]

Stock market today: Asian shares rise after Wall Street nears record; markets eye inflation report

Asian shares have advanced on the back of Wall Street’s climb to a near-record high, as Tokyo's benchmark surged to its highest level since 1990.

apnews.com

Wall Street nears record as markets prep for an upcoming inflation report​

By STAN CHOE

NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street rose Wednesday as traders locked in their final moves ahead of a report on inflation, which could show whether all the excitement that’s vaulted stocks toward records is warranted.

The S&P 500 gained 0.6% to pull within 0.3% of its all-time high set two years ago. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.5%, and the Nasdaq composite rose 0.8%.

Intuitive Surgical jumped 10.3% after the maker of robotic surgery systems said it expects to report stronger revenue for the end of 2023 than analysts expected. Homebuilder Lennar climbed 3.5% after it said it would send cash to shareholders by increasing its dividend and authorizing a repurchase of up to $5 billion of its own stock.

But the market’s focus is on Thursday, when the U.S. government will release its latest monthly update on inflation at the consumer level. A cooldown there from its peak in the summer of 2022 has raised hopes that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates sharply this year. That in turn has sent Treasury yields easing in the bond market and stock prices rallying.

Economists expect Thursday’s report to show prices paid by U.S. consumers were 3.2% higher in December than a year earlier, according to FactSet. That would be a slight acceleration from November’s 3.1% inflation rate. But after ignoring the effects of food and fuel prices, which can quickly shift from month to month, economists believe underlying inflation trends likely continued to cool.

The Fed has noticed the cooldown in inflation, and it’s hinted at possibly cutting interest rates three times this year. That would be a sharp turnaround after it jacked rates dramatically higher in hopes of slowing the economy and hurting investment prices enough to grind down high inflation.

But many traders are anticipating double that number of rate cuts. Critics say that’s overly optimistic and that the Fed is unlikely to cut so many times unless a recession hits. If Thursday’s inflation data come in warmer than expected, it could upend those hopes and shake the market.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury has already slumped well below its perch above 5% in October on strong hopes for rate cuts. It edged a bit higher Wednesday, up to 4.03% from 4.02% late Tuesday.

On Wall Street, Boeing’s stock stabilized after slumping earlier in the week following the in-flight blowout of one of its planes flying for Alaska Airlines. It rose 0.9%.

WD-40 jumped 15.2% after reporting stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected.

The big companies in the S&P 500 are set to begin reporting their results for the last three months of 2023 on Friday. Delta Air Lines, JPMorgan Chase and UnitedHealth Group will be among that day’s headliners.

Analysts are forecasting a half dozen stocks will be responsible for most of the S&P 500’s growth in the last quarter. But trends are improving a bit, according to strategists at Bank of America. They say 66% of companies are expected to report growth in profit, up from 64% in the third quarter.

“While risks remain, fundamentals are improving and analysts sound more optimistic than they did in” the summer, Ohsung Kwon and Savita Subramanian said in a BofA Global Research report.

Some of Wall Street’s heavier losses Wednesday came from stocks of oil-and-gas companies. Exxon Mobil sank 1%, and Devon dropped 1.9%.

Crude prices fell after giving up gains from earlier in the day. A barrel of benchmark U.S. oil dropped 87 cents to $71.37 and is down roughly 3% for the week. Brent crude, the international standard, sank 79 cents to $76.80 per barrel. The price of natural gas also slumped.

All told, the S&P 500 rose 26.95 points to 4,783.45. The Dow gained 170.57 to 37,695.73, and the Nasdaq climbed 111.94 to 14,969.65.

In stock markets abroad, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 gained 2% to hit its highest level since March 1990 as a weaker yen lifted shares of exporters. Indexes were mostly lower across the rest of Asia and mixed in Europe.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was holding above $46,000 shortly after 4 p.m. Eastern time following a wild run that saw its price spike and then tumble a day before. Crypto investors have been excited about the potential for U.S. regulators to allow the trading of exchange-traded funds that hold actual bitcoins, instead of just futures contracts related to them.

Late Tuesday, the Securities and Exchange Commission’s account on X, formerly known as Twitter, said that it had approved such ETFs. Soon after, though, the SEC said no approval had been given and that its account had been compromised.

It’s the latest eye-twitching shenanigan in a corner of the market that SEC Chair Gary Gensler had called the “Wild West” in 2021 because it didn’t have enough protections for investors at the time.

ASX 200 expected to rebound​

The Australian share market looks set to rebound on Wednesday following a strong night of trade on Wall Street.

According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 13 points or 0.2% higher this morning.

Wall Street rose Wednesday as traders locked in their final moves ahead of a report on inflation, which could show whether all the excitement that’s vaulted stocks toward records is warranted.

The S&P 500 gained 0.6% to pull within 0.3% of its all-time high set two years ago. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.5%, and the Nasdaq composite rose 0.8%.

All told, the S&P 500 rose 26.95 points to 4,783.45. The Dow gained 170.57 to 37,695.73, and the Nasdaq climbed 111.94 to 14,969.65.


Market Snapshot

 

[bigdog]

Stock market today: Asian shares are mostly higher after a mixed close on Wall Street

Asian shares are mostly higher after Wall Street drifted to a mixed close. Tokyo's benchmark extended its New Year rally, trading well above 35,000 at its highest level since 1990.

apnews.com

Wall Street wobbles to a mixed close, and yields yo-yo after an inflation report​

By STAN CHOE

NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street wobbled Thursday after an update on inflation raised questions about when the Federal Reserve could begin the cuts to interest rates that investors crave so much.

The S&P 500 slipped 3.21 points, or 0.1%, to 4,780.24 after swinging up and down a few times through the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 15.29, or less than 0.1%, to 37,711.02, and the Nasdaq composite edged up by 0.54, or less than 0.1%, to 14,970.19.

Stocks had been roaring toward record heights on expectations that a cooldown in inflation would convince the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sharply in 2024, which would boost prices for investments. Thursday morning’s inflation report was seen as a test that could show whether Wall Street’s hopes had gone overboard.

It showed U.S. consumers paid prices that were 3.4% higher overall in December than a year earlier. That’s an acceleration from November’s 3.1% inflation rate and a touch warmer than economists expected.

But trends underneath the surface may have been a bit more encouraging. After stripping out food and fuel prices, which can shift sharply from month to month, the rise in prices from November into December was close to economists’ expectations.

Altogether the data will likely cause traders to push back forecasts for when the first cut to rates will arrive, several analysts said, but they don’t preclude the central hopes that have sent stocks near records: Inflation is cooling, and the economy looks likely to avoid a bad recession.

“Today’s inflation report reinforces the notion that the market had gotten a little overexcited around the timing of rate cuts,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. “These are not bad numbers, but they do show that disinflation progress is still slow and unlikely to be a straight line down to 2%.”

The inflation data sent Treasury yields on a jagged run in the bond market. After sinking from Wednesday night into Thursday, they jumped immediately after the report’s release as traders trimmed bets for the first rate cuts to arrive as soon as March.

But yields quickly began yo-yoing afterward. By late afternoon, they were lower again and helping stock indexes to recover much of their earlier losses.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.97% from 4.04% late Wednesday. It’s down from more than 5% in October.

Economists at Bank of America said they’re sticking with their forecast for the Fed to begin cutting rates in March, despite the warmer-than-expected inflation data. Some of the drivers of the recent strength, particularly used cars, should fade in coming months, they said in a BofA Global Research report.

A jump in oil prices put some upward pressure on inflation and yields, as they trimmed their sharp losses from earlier in the week. A barrel of benchmark U.S. crude rose 65 cents to $72.02. Brent crude, the international standard, gained 61 cents to $77.41 per barrel.

Also in the energy industry, natural-gas producer Chesapeake Energy rose 3.2% after it agreed to sell itself to Southwestern Energy in an all-stock deal valued at $7.4 billion. Southwestern fell 2.5%.

Elsewhere on Wall Street, Citigroup lost 1.8% after it detailed a list of charges it will take against its fourth-quarter results, related to everything from Argentina’s troubled economy to a previously disclosed special assessment by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

Hertz Global Holdings sank 4.3% after it said it expects to record a drop in the fourth quarter for an underlying measure of profits, and it’s selling about 20,000 electric vehicles to cut its EV fleet by a third.

In cryptocurrencies, the price of bitcoin was swinging a day after U.S. regulators allowed for the trading of the first exchange-traded funds that hold the digital currency rather than futures related to it. The hope in crypto world is that by making investing in bitcoin easier, the ETFs will draw new types of investors to the field and drive it further into the mainstream.

Coinbase Global, which will keep custody of bitcoins for some of the ETFs, climbed at the start of trading but then gave up the gains. It ended 6.7% lower.

In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.8% to its highest finish since February 1990, when Japan’s bubble economy was beginning to deflate. Indexes in Europe, meanwhile, were mostly lower.

ASX 200 expected to fall​

The Australian share market looks set to end the week on a disappointing note after Wall Street wobbled Thursday after an update on inflation raised questionans

According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 34 points or 0.6\5% lower this morning.

Wall Street wobbled Thursday after an update on inflation raised questions about when the Federal Reserve could begin the cuts to interest rates that investors crave so much.

The S&P 500 slipped 3.21 points, or 0.1%, to 4,780.24 after swinging up and down a few times through the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 15.29, or less than 0.1%, to 37,711.02, and the Nasdaq composite edged up by 0.54, or less than 0.1%, to 14,970.19.

Market Snapshot

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[bigdog]

Stock market today: Wall Street closes out its 10th winning week in 11 with a mixed finish

Wall Street drifted to a mixed finish as it closed out its 10th winning week in the last 11. The S&P 500 ended Friday up 0.1% and remains within 0.3% of its record after earnings season kicked off with mixed results from Delta Air Lines and others.

apnews.com

Wall Street closes out its 10th winning week in 11 with a mixed finish​

By STAN CHOE

NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street closed its 10th winning week in the last 11 with a mixed finish Friday following an encouraging report on inflation.

The S&P 500 edged up by 0.1% after earnings reporting season kicked off with mixed results from Delta Air Lines, JPMorgan Chase and others. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 118 points, or 0.3%, dragged down by a sharp loss for UnitedHealth Group following its results. The Nasdaq was basically flat and rose by less than 0.1%.

Stocks have been roaring toward records for months, pulling the S&P 500 within 0.3% of its all-time high, on hopes that inflation is cooling enough for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates several times this year.

Treasury yields have already sunk in the bond market on those expectations, and they fell further after a report showed inflation at the U.S. wholesale level was weaker last month than economists expected. The data bolstered expectations for rate cuts a day after another report had shown inflation was warmer at the consumer level than expected.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury eased to 3.94% from nearly 4% just before the report’s release. In October, it was above 5% and at its highest level since 2007. Easier rates and yields relax the pressure on the economy and financial system, while boosting prices for investments.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury eased to 3.94% from nearly 4% just before the report’s release. In October, it was above 5% and at its highest level since 2007. Easier rates and yields relax the pressure on the economy and financial system, while boosting prices for investments.

The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for the Fed, fell to 4.17% from 4.27% before the wholesale inflation report’s release. Traders rebuilt bets that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in March, according to data from CME Group.

Traders are largely betting on the Fed cutting its main interest rate six or more times through 2024. That would be a much more aggressive track than the Fed itself has hinted. It’s even cautioned it could raise rates further if inflation refuses to buckle convincingly toward its target of 2%. The federal funds rate is already at its highest level since 2001.

“The danger of Fed fine-tuning is that they could be fiddling while the economy is burning down,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management. “If they’re data-dependent, that means they’re looking in the rearview mirror. Now they need to shift their gaze forward through the windshield.”

Interest rates are one of the main levers that set where stock prices are. The other is how much profit companies are making, and analysts expect the S&P 500 to deliver a second straight quarter of growth after earlier faltering under the weight of high inflation.

The reporting season for the end of 2023 unofficially got underway Friday with a bevy of reports from banks.

JPMorgan Chase dipped 0.7% after reporting weaker results for the last three months of 2023 than expected.

UnitedHealth Group fell 3.4% despite topping analysts’ profit forecasts. Medical costs for the health care giant soared, worrying investors.

Delta Air Lines sank 9% even though it reported stronger profit and revenue for the final three months of 2023 than analysts had forecast. The carrier’s forecasted range for upcoming full-year profit indicated it could fall below what analysts had been expecting.

The airline and other travel-related companies were also hurt by a rise in oil prices, which put pressure on their fuel costs. United Airlines fell 10.6%, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings lost 4.3%.

Crude prices climbed on worries about potential disruptions to supplies after Yemen’s Houthi rebels vowed fierce retaliation for U.S. and U.K. strikes against them. A barrel of benchmark U.S. crude oil rose 66 cents to $72.68. Brent crude, the international standard, rose 88 cents to $78.29 per barre.

That helped stocks of energy companies to lead the S&P 500 with an overall gain of 1.3%. Valero Energy rose 2.8%, and Marathon Oil climbed 2%.

All told, the S&P 500 rose 3.59 points to 4,783.83. The Dow fell 118.04 to 37,592.98, and the Nasdaq composite gained 2.57 to 14,972.76.

In stock markets abroad, Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 1.5% to cap a strong week that brought it to levels unseen since 1990, when the country’s bubble economy was beginning to deflate. Indexes were lower in much of the rest of Asia but higher in Europe.

 

[bigdog]

ASX 200 expected to rise​

The Australian share market looks set for a better session on Monday following a mixed session on Wall Street on Friday.

According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 5 points higher this morning.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was down 0.3%, but the S&P 500 rose 0.1% and the Nasdaq edged ever so slightly higher.

All told, the S&P 500 rose 3.59 points to 4,783.83. The Dow fell 118.04 to 37,592.98, and the Nasdaq composite gained 2.57 to 14,972.76.

Market Snapchat

 

[Skate]

Monday: U.S. Markets closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

Skate.

 

[divs4ever]

a tinge of red currently

be careful

 

[bigdog]

U.S. markets closed Monday for Martin Luther King Day, a holiday

Stock market today: Shares fall in Europe after gains in Asia. US markets are closed for a holiday

European markets have opened lower while Asian markets were mostly higher as the week got off to a mixed start.

apnews.com

Shares fall in Europe after gains in Asia. US markets are closed for a holiday​

By ZIMO ZHONG

HONG KONG (AP) — European markets opened lower while Asian markets were mostly higher on Monday as the week got off to a mixed start.

U.S. markets will be closed for Martin Luther King Day, a holiday.

France’s CAC 40 lost 0.1% to 7,454.74. Germany’s DAX slipped 0.1% to 16,688.90, and Britain’s FTSE 100 shed 0.2% to 7,619.80.

China’s central bank opted to keep its one-year policy loan interest rate at 2.5% on Monday while injecting funds into the financial system. That surprised market observers since it was contrary to the anticipated trend of lowering borrowing costs to stimulate the economy.

China’s central bank opted to keep its one-year policy loan interest rate at 2.5% on Monday while injecting funds into the financial system. That surprised market observers since it was contrary to the anticipated trend of lowering borrowing costs to stimulate the economy.

The “Policy focus has shifted to the effectiveness of monetary policy,” Zhaopeng Xing and Raymond Yeung of ANZ said in a report. “Today’s hold means the chance of an RRR (reserve ratio requirement) cut in February is higher.”

The Hang Seng in Hong Kong lost 0.2% to 16,216.33, and the Shanghai Composite index was up 0.2%, at 2,886.29.

Search engine provider Baidu slumped 11.5% after a local newspaper report alleged the company’s Ernie AI platform was linked to Chinese military research into artificial intelligence. Baidu said in a statement that it “has no affiliation or other partnership with the academic institution in question.”

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 on Monday briefly surpassed the 36,000 mark for the first time in 34 years, but ended the day a bit lower, gaining 0.9% to close at 35,901.79. The Kospi in South Korea was nearly flat at 2,525.99.

Ruling-party candidate Lai Ching-te emerged victorious in Taiwan’s presidential election on Saturday, a result that will determine the trajectory of the self-ruled democracy’s contentious relations with China over the next four years. The Democratic Progressive Party, to which Lai belongs, has consistently rejected China’s assertions of sovereignty over Taiwan.

Taiwan’s Taiex gained 0.2% to 17,546.82.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was virtually unchanged at 7,496.30.

On Friday, the S&P 500 edged up by 0.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%, dragged down by a sharp loss for UnitedHealth Group following its results. The Nasdaq was basically flat and rose by less than 0.1%.

Stocks have been roaring toward records for months, pulling the S&P 500 within 0.3% of its all-time high, on hopes that inflation is cooling enough for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates several times this year.

Treasury yields have already sunk in the bond market on those expectations, and they fell further after a report showed inflation at the U.S. wholesale level was weaker last month than economists expected. The data bolstered expectations for rate cuts a day after another report had shown inflation was warmer at the consumer level than expected.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury eased to 3.94% from nearly 4% just before the report’s release. In October, it was above 5% and at its highest level since 2007. Easier rates and yields relax the pressure on the economy and financial system, while boosting prices for investments.

Traders are largely betting on the Fed cutting its main interest rate six or more times through 2024. That would be a much more aggressive track than the Fed itself has hinted. It’s even cautioned it could raise rates further if inflation refuses to buckle convincingly toward its target of 2%. The federal funds rate is already at its highest level since 2001.

In other trading, a barrel of benchmark U.S. crude oil lost 33 cents to $72.35. Brent crude, the international standard, gave up 30 cents to $77.99 per barrel.

The U.S. dollar was at 145.50 Japanese yen, up from 144.92. The euro rose to $1.0955 from $1.0950.

China’s central bank opted to keep its one-year policy loan interest rate at 2.5% on Monday while injecting funds into the financial system. That surprised market observers since it was contrary to the anticipated trend of lowering borrowing costs to stimulate the economy.

ASX 200 expected to fall​

The Australian share market is expected to fall on Tuesday.

According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is poised to open the day 21 points or 0.3% lower.

Market snapshot​

U.S. markets closed Monday for Martin Luther King Day, a holiday

REST Of WORLD TRADING

 

[bigdog]

Stock market today: Asian shares mostly fall after Wall Street drop, Tokyo hits new 34-year high

Asian shares are trading mostly lower after a decline overnight on Wall Street. Tokyo’s main benchmark momentarily hit another 30-year high in Wednesday morning trading, while shares slipped in Sydney, Seoul, Hong Kong and Shanghai.

apnews.com

Wall Street slips as Treasury yields rise​

By STAN CHOE

NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street slipped Tuesday in a lackluster return to trading following a three-day holiday weekend.

The S&P 500 fell 17.85 points, or 0.4%, to 4,765.98. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 231.86, or 0.6%, to 37,361.12, and the Nasdaq composite sank 28.41, or 0.2%, to 14,944.35.

Spirit Airlines lost 47.1% after a U.S. judge blocked its takeover by JetBlue Airways on concerns it would mean higher airfares for flyers. JetBlue rose 4.9%.

Stocks of banks were mixed, meanwhile, as earnings reporting season ramps up for the final three months of 2023. Morgan Stanley sank 4.2% after it said a legal matter and a special assessment knocked $535 million off its pretax earnings, while Goldman Sachs edged 0.7% higher after reporting results that topped Wall Street’s forecasts.

Companies across the S&P 500 are likely to report meager growth in profits for the fourth quarter from a year earlier, if any, if Wall Street analysts’ forecasts are to be believed. Earnings have been under pressure for more than a year because of rising costs amid high inflation.

But optimism is higher for 2024, where analysts are forecasting a strong 11.8% growth in earnings per share for S&P 500 companies, according to FactSet. That, plus expectations for several cuts to interest rates by the Federal Reserve this year, have helped the S&P 500 rally to 10 winning weeks in the last 11. The index remains within 0.6% of its all-time high set two years ago

Treasury yields have already sunk in the bond market on expectations for upcoming cuts to rates, which traders believe could begin as early as March. It’s a sharp turnaround from the past couple years, when the Federal Reserve was hiking rates drastically in hopes of getting high inflation under control.

Easier rates and yields relax the pressure on the economy and financial system, while also boosting prices for investments. And for the past six months, interest rates have been the main force moving the stock market, according to Michael Wilson, strategist at Morgan Stanley.

He sees that dynamic continuing in the near term, with the “bond market still in charge.”

For now, traders are penciling in many more cuts to rates through 2024 than the Fed itself has indicated. That raises the potential for big market swings around each speech by a Fed official or economic report.

Yields rose in the bond market after Fed Gov. Christopher Waller said in a speech that “policy is set properly” on interest rates. Following the speech, traders pushed some bets for the Fed’s first cut to rates to happen in May instead of March.

Waller did say cooling data reports have “made me more confident than I have been since 2021 that inflation is on a path” down to the Fed’s 2% target and that the central bank should cut rates this year “as long as inflation doesn’t rebound and stay elevated.”

Until then, though, Waller said the economy is doing well, which gives the Fed the ability to wait and monitor incoming data before making its next move. “We can take our time to make sure we do this right,” he said.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed to 4.06% from 3.95% late Friday to add pressure on the stock market. Higher yields can drag on corporate profits, among other negatives for investors, though the 10-year yield is still well below the 5% level it reached in October.

On Wall Street, Boeing fell to one of the market’s sharper losses as worries continue about troubles for its 737 Max 9 aircraft following the recent in-flight blowout of an Alaska Airlines jet. Boeing lost 7.9%.

On the winning side was Carrols Restaurant Group, the largest Burger King franchisee in the U.S., which jumped 12.5%. Restaurant Brands International said it will buy all the stock of Carrols that it doesn’t already own for $9.55 per share in cash.

Stock markets abroad were mostly lower, including Japan’s, which had been on a winning streak that had carried it to its highest level since its bubble was deflating in 1990.

The Nikkei 225 index slipped 0.8% after the value of the Japanese yen strengthened against other currencies. A stronger yen can sap profits for Japanese exporters, and it rose with expectations that the Bank of Japan could be preparing to end its longstanding policy to keep interest rates below zero.

ASX 200 expected to rise​

The Australian share market looks set set rise on Wednesday as Wall Street slipped Tuesday in a lackluster return to trading following a three-day holiday weekend.

According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 4 points or 0.1% higher.

Wall Street slipped Tuesday in a lackluster return to trading following a three-day holiday weekend.

The S&P 500 fell 17.85 points, or 0.4%, to 4,765.98. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 231.86, or 0.6%, to 37,361.12, and the Nasdaq composite sank 28.41, or 0.2%, to 14,944.35.

Market snapshot​

 

[bigdog]

Stock market today: Asian shares trade mixed after Wall Street dips amid dimming rate cut hopes

Asian shares are trading mixed as pessimism spreads among investors about any imminent interest rate cut in the U.S.

apnews.com

Wall Street dips as hopes dim for an imminent cut to interest rates​

By STAN CHOE
Updated 8:31 AM GMT+11, January 18, 2024

NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street slipped Wednesday following another signal that it may have gotten too optimistic about when the Federal Reserve will deliver the cuts to interest rates that traders crave so much.

The S&P 500 fell 26.77 points, or 0.6%, to 4,739.21. It’s the second straight stumble for the index after it closed out its 10th winning week in the last 11 near its all-time high.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 94.45, or 0.3%, to 37,266.67, and the Nasdaq composite slumped 88.73, or 0.6%, to 14,855.62.

Rising yields in the bond market once again put downward pressure on stocks. Yields climbed after a report showed sales at U.S. retailers were stronger last month than economists expected. While that’s good news for an economy that’s defied predictions for a recession, it could also keep upward pressure on inflation.

That in turn could push the Federal Reserve to wait longer than traders expect to begin cutting interest rates after jacking them drastically higher over the last two years. Lower rates would relax the pressure on the economy and financial system, while also goosing prices for investments.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped immediately after the retail-sales report and climbed to 4.10% from 4.06% late Tuesday. Higher yields can crimp profits for companies, while also making investors less willing to pay high prices for stocks.

Higher yields hurt all kinds of investments, and high-growth stocks tend to be some of the hardest hit. Drops of 2% for Tesla and 0.9% for Amazon were among the heaviest weights on the S&P 500. The smaller companies in the Russell 2000 index also slumped as much as 1.5% before paring their loss to 0.7%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, meanwhile, has less of an emphasis on tech and high-growth companies. That helped limit its losses relative to the rest of the market.

The yield on the two-year Treasury, which more closely tracks expectations for the Fed, also jumped. It climbed to 4.34% from 4.22% late Tuesday as traders trimmed their expectations for the Fed’s first rate cut to arrive in March. Traders are now betting on a less than 60% probability of that, down from roughly 70% a month earlier, according to data from CME Group.

A top Fed official, Gov. Christopher Waller, said Tuesday that the central bank could take its time before its next move on rates given how resilient the economy has remained.

“These comments leave a rate cut as early as March on the table but also indicate that such a move is not a done deal,” according to economists at Deutsche Bank led by Amy Yang.

On Wednesday, across the Atlantic Ocean, the head of the European Central Bank warned in a speech about the risks of cutting rates too soon.

If Wall Street’s predictions for the timing of the rate cuts it desires so much do indeed prove wrong, it would be just the latest example of overzealousness by traders.

Interest rates are one of the main levers that set stock prices. The other is corporate profits, and several companies reported weaker results on Wednesday than analysts expected.

U.S. Bancorp fell 1.4% after reporting weaker profit than analysts had forecast. Big 5 Sporting Goods fell 8% after saying it expects to report a worse loss for the last three months of 2023 than earlier expected because of weak sales of winter-related products. The company said it was hurt by warmer temperatures and a lack of snowfall in the West from October through December.

Charles Schwab reported stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected, but its stock still fell 1.3%. Its revenue fell short of estimates, and analysts said its better-than-expected earnings were likely due in part to easier tax rates.

Spirit Airlines was under heavy pressure again and sank 22.5%. Its stock nearly halved a day before after a U.S. judge blocked its purchase by JetBlue Airways out of fear that it would lead to higher airfares. JetBlue lost 8.7%.

Wednesday’s slip for Wall Street followed a rough day for financial markets worldwide. Stock indexes fell roughly 1% in Europe following the comments by Christine Lagarde, the head of the European Central Bank.

They dropped even more sharply in Asia. Stocks sank 3.7% in Hong Kong and 2.1% in Shanghai as worries continue about a sluggish recovery for the world’s second-largest economy.

Japan’s Nikkei 225, which has been one of the new year’s biggest winners, also fell and slipped 0.4%

ASX 200 expected to fall again​

The Australian share market looks set to fall again on Thursday following a poor night of trade on Wall Street.

According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 20 points or 0.3% lower this morning.

Wall Street slipped Wednesday following another signal that it may have gotten too optimistic about when the Federal Reserve will deliver the cuts to interest rates that traders crave so much.

The S&P 500 fell 26.77 points, or 0.6%, to 4,739.21. It’s the second straight stumble for the index after it closed out its 10th winning week in the last 11 near its all-time high.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 94.45, or 0.3%, to 37,266.67, and the Nasdaq composite slumped 88.73, or 0.6%, to 14,855.62.

 

[bigdog]

Stock market today: Asian stocks track Wall Street gains and Japan’s inflation slows

Asia markets mostly advanced Friday after Wall Street recouped most of the week’s earlier losses and Japan reported slowing inflation, which may keep its ultra-low interest rates steady.

apnews.com

Wall Street climbs to erase almost all its losses for the week so far​

By STAN CHOE

NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street bounced back Thursday and recouped almost all the losses it suffered earlier in the week.

The S&P 500 rose 41.73 points, or 0.9%, to 4,780.94 following back-to-back drops that kicked off this holiday-shortened week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 201.94, or 0.5%, to 37,468.61, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 200.03, or 1.3%, to 15,055.65.

Big Tech stocks led the way, including Apple, which rose 3.3% to flip its loss for the week so far into a gain.

Chip companies were also strong after chip maker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. gave a forecast for revenue in 2024 that analysts said was higher than they were expecting. Broadcom gained 3.6%, while TSMC’s stock that trades in the United States jumped 9.8%.

They helped offset a warning from Humana about how higher medical costs would eat into its profit. The insurer’s stock tumbled 8%.

The market was broadly steadier as Treasury yields in the bond market slowed their jump from earlier in the week. Yields had been climbing as traders pushed back their forecasts for how soon the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates. Higher yields in turn undercut prices for stocks and raise the pressure on the economy.

The Fed has indicated it will likely cut rates several times in 2024 because inflation has been cooling since its peak two summers ago, meaning it may not need as tight a leash on the economy and financial system. But critics said Wall Street’s expectations went overboard for how many cuts the Fed would deliver this year and how soon it would begin. That in turn may have sent stock prices too high and Treasury yields too low after their big moves began last autumn.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose again Thursday, to 4.13% from 4.11% late Wednesday. But the move was milder than earlier in the week, when it jumped up from 3.95%.

The yield on the two-year Treasury, which moves more on expectations for Fed action, held at 4.36%, where it was late Wednesday. But even there was hesitation.

Treasury yields swung up and down in the minutes after a report on Thursday morning showed the number of U.S. workers applying for unemployment benefits fell last week to its lowest level since two Septembers ago. That’s good news for workers and for the economy overall, which has so far powered through predictions for a recession.

But a stronger-than-expected job market could also keep upward pressure on inflation. That would lessen the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting rates as soon as its March meeting. Traders are now betting on a roughly 57% chance of that, down from more than 70% a week ago, according to data from CME Group.

“The story this week continues to be robust economic data, and how it may keep rate cuts on ice for a while,” said Chris Larkin, managing director, trading and investing, at E-Trade from Morgan Stanley.

Other reports on the economy were mixed Thursday. One showed manufacturing in the mid-Atlantic region is contracting by more than economists expected. Another said homebuilders broke ground on more projects last month than economists expected, even if it was weaker than November’s level.

On the losing end of Wall Street were several financial companies that reported weaker results for the end of 2023 than analysts expected. Discover Financial Services fell 10.8%, and KeyCorp lost 4.6% after both reported profits that fell well short of Wall Street’s forecasts, though their revenues topped expectations.

Helping to offset them was Fastenal, which jumped 7.2% for the biggest gain in the S&P 500. The distributor of safety supplies, fasteners and other products reported a bigger quarterly profit than analysts expected.

In stock markets abroad, indexes rose across much of Europe and Asia to trim their losses for the week so far.

ASX 200 expected to rebound​

The Australian share market looks set to end the week on a very positive note following a good night on Wall Street.

According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open 72 points or 1% higher this morning.
Wall Street bounced back Thursday and recouped almost all the losses it suffered earlier in the week.

The S&P 500 rose 41.73 points, or 0.9%, to 4,780.94 following back-to-back drops that kicked off this holiday-shortened week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 201.94, or 0.5%, to 37,468.61, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 200.03, or 1.3%, to 15,055.65.

Big Tech stocks led the way, including Apple, which rose 3.3% to flip its loss for the week so far into a gain.

 

[bigdog]

Stock market today: Wall Street hits record high following a 2-year round trip scarred by inflation

Wall Street returned to record heights and capped a punishing, two-year round trip dogged by high inflation and worries about a possible recession.

apnews.com

Wall Street hits record high following a 2-year round trip scarred by inflation​

By STAN CHOE

NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street returned to record heights Friday to cap a punishing, two-year round trip dogged by high inflation and worries about a recession that seemed inevitable but hasn’t arrived.

The S&P 500, which is the centerpiece of many 401(k) accounts and the main measure that professional investors use to gauge Wall Street’s health, rallied 1.2% to 4,839.81. It erased the last of its losses since setting its prior record of 4,796.56 at the start of 2022. During that time, it dropped as much as 25% as inflation soared to levels unseen since Thelonious Monk and Ingrid Bergman were still alive in 1981.

Even more than high inflation itself, Wall Street’s fear was focused on the medicine the Federal Reserve traditionally uses to treat it. That’s high interest rates, which press the brakes on the economy by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. And the Fed rapidly hiked its main interest rate from virtually zero to its highest level since 2001, in a range between 5.25% and 5.50%.

Historically, the Fed has helped induce recessions through such increases to interest rates. Coming into last year, the widespread expectation on Wall Street was that it would happen again.

But this time was different, or at least it has been so far. The economy is still growing, the unemployment rate remains remarkably low and optimism is on the upswing among U.S. households.

“I don’t think this cycle is normal at all,” said Niladri “Neel” Mukherjee, chief investment officer of TIAA’s Wealth Management team. “It’s unique, and the pandemic introduced that element of uniqueness.”

After shooting higher as snarled supply chains caused shortages because of COVID-19 shutdowns, inflation has been cooling since its peak two summers ago. It’s eased so much that Wall Street’s biggest question now is when the Federal Reserve will begin moving interest rates lower.

Such cuts to rates can act like steroids for financial markets, while releasing pressure that’s built up on the economy and the financial system.

Treasury yields have already relaxed significantly on expectations for rate cuts, and that helped the stock market’s rally accelerate sharply in November. The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped Friday to 4.13%, and it’s down sharply from the 5% that it reached in October, which was its highest level since 2007.

Of course, some critics say Wall Street has gotten ahead of itself, again, in predicting how soon the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates.

“The market is addicted to rate cuts,” said Rich Weiss, chief investment officer of multi-asset strategies at American Century Investments. “They just can’t get enough of it and are myopically focused on it.”

Repeatedly since the Fed began this rate-hiking campaign early in 2022, traders have been quick to forecast an approaching easing of rates, only to be disappointed as high inflation proved to be more stubborn than expected. If that happens again, the big moves higher for stocks and lower for bond yields may need to revert.

This time around, though, the Fed itself has hinted that rate cuts are coming, though some officials have indicated they may begin later than the market is hoping for. Traders are betting on a nearly coin flip’s chance that the Fed will start cutting in March, according to data from CME Group.

“The truth is likely somewhere between what the Fed is saying and what the market is expecting,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management. “That will continue to cause dips and rips” for financial markets “until the two reconcile with each other.”

Some encouraging data came Friday after a preliminary report from the University of Michigan suggested the mood among U.S. consumers is roaring higher. It said sentiment jumped to its highest level since July 2021. That’s important because spending by consumers is the main driver of the economy.

Perhaps more importantly for the Fed, expectations for upcoming inflation among households also seem to be anchored. A big worry has been that such expectations could take off and trigger a vicious cycle that keeps inflation high.

Friday’s lift for Wall Street came with a big boost from technology stocks, something that’s become typical in its run higher.

Several chip companies rose for a second straight day after heavyweight chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. delivered a better forecast for revenue this year than analysts expected. Broadcom rose 5.9%, and Texas Instruments climbed 4% after announcing its dividend.

All told, the S&P 500 rose 58.87 points to its record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average set its own record a month earlier, and it gained 395.19, or 1.1%, Friday to 37,863.80. The Nasdaq composite jumped 255.32, or 1.7%, to 15,310.97.

Last year, a select few Big Tech companies were responsible for the wide majority of the S&P 500’s gains. Seven of them accounted for 62% of the index’s total return, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Many of those stocks — Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta Platforms and Tesla — rode a furor in the market around technology related to artificial intelligence. The hope is AI will lead to a boom in profits, both for companies using it and for companies providing the hardware for it.

Investors may have wished they had stayed in just those stocks, which got the nickname of “the Magnificent 7.” But some of them remain below their record highs, such as Tesla. It’s still down 48% from its all-time high set in November 2021.

Friday’s return of the S&P 500 to a record serves as another example that investors who stay patient and spread their investments across the U.S. stock market end up making back all their losses. Sometimes it can take a long time, like the lost decade of 2000 through 2009 when the S&P 500 tumbled through the dot-com bubble bust and the global financial crisis. But the market has historically made investors whole again, given enough time.

Including dividends, investors with S&P 500 index funds already returned to break-even a month ago.

Of course, risks still remain for investors. Besides uncertainty about when the Fed will begin cutting interest rates, it’s also still not a sure thing that the economy will avoid a recession.

Hikes to interest rates take a notoriously long time to make their way fully through the system, and they can cause things to break in unexpected places within the financial system.

 

[bigdog]

ASX 200 expected to rise again​

Another positive session is expected for the Australian share market on Monday following a very strong finish on Wall Street on Friday.

According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 26 points higher this morning.

Wall Street returned to record heights Friday to cap a punishing, two-year round trip dogged by high inflation and worries about a recession that seemed inevitable but hasn’t arrived.

All told, the S&P 500 rose 58.87 points to its record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average set its own record a month earlier, and it gained 395.19, or 1.1%, Friday to 37,863.80. The Nasdaq composite jumped 255.32, or 1.7%, to 15,310.97.

 

[bigdog]

Stock market today: Asian stocks gain after Wall St's latest record. Bank of Japan keeps policy lax

Asian shares are mostly gaining after Wall Street built on its all-time high reached last week, while Japan's central bank has kept its easy credit policy intact.

apnews.com

Wall Street ticks higher and adds to its record high​

By STAN CHOE

NEW YORK (AP) — Most stocks rose on Wall Street Monday to build on its all-time high reached last week.

The S&P 500 added 10.62 points, or 0.2%, to 4,850.43. The Dow Jones Industrial Average topped 38,000 points after rising 138.01, or 0.4%, to 38,001.81. The Nasdaq composite gained 49.32, or 0.3%, to 15,360.29.

Macy’s climbed 3.6% after the retailer said it rejected a buyout offer from two investment companies, in part because it didn’t offer “compelling value.” SolarEdge Technologies rose 4% after it said it would cut 16% of its workforce, and NuStar Energy jumped 18.2% after Sunoco said it would buy the pipeline and storage company in a deal valued at $7.3 billion, including debt.

They helped offset a 24.2% drop for Archer Daniels Midland, which put its chief financial officer on leave. After getting a document request from U.S. regulators, it said it’s investigating some of its accounting practices. ADM also said it expects to report profit for the full year of 2023 that’s below what analysts were forecasting.

This upcoming week will have a rush of companies reporting their results for the last three months of 2023, with roughly 70 companies from the S&P 500 on the calendar. They include American Airlines, Intel, Procter & Gamble and Tesla.

Analysts are expecting companies in the S&P 500 to report an overall dip in earnings for the fourth quarter, down nearly 2% from a year earlier, according to FactSet. If they’re right, it would be the fourth quarter in the last five where profits have fallen.

After the initial week of earnings reporting season, companies that have been topping analysts’ forecasts for profits and revenue have been getting smaller bumps to their stock prices than usual, according to strategists at Bank of America.
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Companies that fall short of expectations, meanwhile, have seen their stock prices get punished more than usual. It all points to “a higher bar after a big rally,” Savita Subramanian and Ohsung Kwon wrote in a BofA Global Research report.

That big rally, which carried the S&P 500 to a record for the first time in two years, came largely on hopes that a cooldown in inflation will allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates several times this year. It would be a sharp turnaround from the last two years, when the Fed jacked its main interest rate drastically higher in hopes of slowing the economy enough to grind down high inflation.

Some stronger-than-expected reports on the economy recently have reinforced hopes that no recession is arriving, while also forcing traders to push out their forecasts for when the Fed will begin cutting rates. They overall see a less than 42% probability that it could begin in March, down from more than 80% a week ago, according to data from CME Group.

But the expectation is still for the Fed to cut rates more this year than the three times it’s indicated.

Some upcoming reports on the economy could shift those expectations further. On Thursday, the government will give its first estimate for how strongly the economy grew during the last three months of 2023.

Economists expect it to show the economy is still growing, but at a slower pace than during the summer. That’s what the Federal Reserve wants to see, because too strong of an economy would keep upward pressure on inflation.

On Friday, the government will release the latest reading for the inflation gauge that the Fed prefers to use. Economists expect it to show inflation held steady at 2.6% in December from a month earlier.

Treasury yields have eased significantly since October on expectations for coming rate cuts. That in turn has relaxed the pressure considerably on the stock market and helped it to rip higher. Yields dipped further on Monday.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.10% from 4.13% late Friday and from 5% in October.

The two-year Treasury yield, which tends to move more on expectations for action by the Fed, ticked up to 4.41% from 4.39%.

In stock markets abroad, indexes tumbled in China as worries continue about the strength of the recovery in the world’s second-largest economy. Stocks fell 2.3% in Hong Kong to bring their loss for the young year to date to 12.2%. Stocks also tumbled 2.7% in Shanghai.

China’s commercial banks kept their loan prime rate unchanged Monday. That disappointed investors hoping for strong moves to juice China’s economy.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 did better, rising 1.6% with expectations that the Bank of Japan will keep its interest rates ultra-low following its two-day meeting that began Monday.

ASX 200 expected to edge lower​

The Australian share market is expected to edge lower on Tuesday despite a good start to the week on Wall Street.

According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is poised to open the day 1 points lower.

Most stocks rose on Wall Street Monday to build on its all-time high reached last week.

The S&P 500 added 10.62 points, or 0.2%, to 4,850.43. The Dow Jones Industrial Average topped 38,000 points after rising 138.01, or 0.4%, to 38,001.81. The Nasdaq composite gained 49.32, or 0.3%, to 15,360.29.

 

[bigdog]

Stock market today: Asian shares mixed as Japan reports that its exports jumped in December

Asian shares are mixed after Japan reported its exports jumped nearly 10% in December over a year earlier.

apnews.com

S&P 500 hits another record as earnings reporting season heats up​

By STAN CHOE

NEW YORK (AP) — The S&P 500 climbed to another record Tuesday as earnings reporting season for big U.S. companies picked up the pace.

The index rose 14.17 points, or 0.3%, to 4,864.60. The Nasdaq composite also climbed, up 65.66, or 0.4%, to 15,425.94. But the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 96.36 points, or 0.3%, a day after topping 38,000 for the first time. It finished at 37,905.45.

Procter & Gamble climbed 4.1% after posting stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. The company behind Charmin and Olay benefited from price hikes for its products, and it raised its forecast for profit for this full fiscal year.

United Airlines flew 5.3% higher after it also reported stronger profit for the last three months of 2023 than analysts expected. It made more in revenue from customers in both basic economy and premium seats, though it warned it may lose money in the first three months of this year because of the grounding of its Boeing 737 Max 9 planes.

They helped offset an 11% tumble for 3M after it gave a forecast for earnings this upcoming year that fell short of analysts’ expectations. The maker of Post-it notes and Command strips was the main reason the Dow dropped from its record.

Johnson & Johnson was also a heavy weight on the market and fell 1.6% after reporting weaker profit for the latest quarter than expected.

Earnings season is kicking into gear, and more than a dozen companies in the S&P 500 reported their latest quarterly results Tuesday morning. More than 50 are scheduled to follow up later this week, including Tesla and Intel.

Among Tuesday’s headliners was Verizon Communications, which rose 6.7% after beating analysts’ profit estimates. General Electric also topped expectations, but its stock slipped 1% after it gave a forecast for profit this quarter that fell short of analysts’ forecasts. Homebuilder D.R. Horton sank 9.2% after reporting weaker profit than expected.

Expectations are relatively low for companies’ profits at the end of 2023. Analysts have forecast companies in the S&P 500 will deliver weaker overall earnings per share than a year earlier, which would be the fourth such decline in the last five quarters, according to FactSet.

Stocks have nevertheless rallied to records, mostly on expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates several times this year after hiking them dramatically the last two years.

Such cuts can boost prices for investments while relaxing the pressure on the economy and financial system. The Federal Reserve itself has said it may cut rates three times this year as inflation cools, which would allow the central bank to loosen its leash on the economy.

Treasury yields have already eased considerably since the autumn on expectations for coming rate cuts, though critics warn traders may have gone overboard again in forecasting how many cuts will come and how soon the Fed will begin.

Yields were mixed in the bond market Tuesday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.14% from 4.11% late Monday, though it remains well below its 5% level during October.

The “everything rally” that began late last year on hopes for a pivot by the Fed likely caused mutual-fund managers to scramble to boost their ownership of stocks to keep up. Even when stocks took a mini-breather at the start of 2024, investors seemed to “remain little concerned with downside risk,” according to strategists at Barclays led by Venu Krishna. That could leave “less room for fundamental upside from here.”

In stock markets abroad, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 2.6% to recover some of its sharp loss for the year so far on hopes that Chinese authorities may make moves to shore up markets. The Hang Seng is still down nearly 10% so far in the young year on worries about a weak recovery for the world’s second-largest economy.

In Japan, one of the world’s best performers for the year so far slipped even though the Bank of Japan kept its interest-rate policies at ultra-easy levels. The Nikkei 225 dipped 0.1% after analysts took comments by a bank official as hints that hikes to rates may be coming this year.

ASX 200 expected to edge higher​

The Australian share market looks set to rise on Wednesday following a mixed night on Wall Street.

According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 13 points higher.

The S&P 500 climbed to another record Tuesday as earnings reporting season for big U.S. companies picked up the pace.

The index rose 14.17 points, or 0.3%, to 4,864.60. The Nasdaq composite also climbed, up 65.66, or 0.4%, to 15,425.94. But the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 96.36 points, or 0.3%, a day after topping 38,000 for the first time. It finished at 37,905.45.

 

[bigdog]

Stock market today: Netflix and tech stocks climb, but Wall Street ends with indexes mixed

Wall Street ended mixed after strong gains for Netflix and some influential technology stocks helped offset losses across much of the U.S. stock market. The S&P 500 edged up 0.1%

www.jacksonvilleprogress.com

Netflix and tech companies pull Wall Street higher, even as most stocks fall​

By STAN CHOE

NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street was mixed Wednesday after strong gains for Netflix and some influential technology stocks helped offset losses across much of the U.S. stock market.

The S&P 500 added 3.95 points, or 0.1%, to 4,868.55 and set a record for a fourth straight day. The strength for tech stocks had the Nasdaq composite leading the market with a gain of 55.97, or 0.4%, to 15,481.92. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 99.06, or 0.3%, to 37,806.39.

Earlier in the day, stocks climbed elsewhere around the world after Chinese authorities announced measures to boost what’s been a disappointingly weak recovery for the world’s second-largest economy. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index jumped 3.6% to trim its loss for the month to date to less than 7%.

On Wall Street, Netflix leaped 10.7% after it said it added many more subscribers during the last three months of 2023 than analysts expected. That took precedence for investors over the company’s profit, which fell short of analysts’ forecasts.

Also helping to bolster tech stocks was ASML, the Dutch company that’s a major supplier to the semiconductor industry. It reported stronger profit and revenue than analysts expected, and its U.S.-listed stock jumped 8.9%.

Microsoft climbed 0.9% amid a furor around artificial-intelligence technology that's vaulted it and other Big Tech stocks higher. Because it’s one of the largest stocks on Wall Street, its movements carry more weight on the S&P 500 and other indexes than smaller stocks.

It helped overshadow drops for the majority of stocks within the S&P 500, including a 3% fall for AT&T, following earnings reports that fell short of expectations.

Stocks have broadly rocketed to records recently on hopes that cooling inflation will convince the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates several times this year. Treasury yields have already come down considerably on such expectations, which can relax the pressure on the economy and financial system.

The only question on Wall Street is when the Fed will begin cutting rates and how deeply it will go. Traders have recently been trimming their bets following stronger-than-expected reports on the economy, which keep worries about a recession at bay but could also add upward pressure on inflation.

The latest signal of economic strength arrived Wednesday morning, when a preliminary report suggested growth in output for businesses accelerated to a seven-month high. Perhaps more importantly for Fed officials, the flash report from S&P Global also said that prices charged by businesses rose at the slowest rate since May 2020.

The report did include some negative signals, such as delays in deliveries of supplies because of bad weather, "but for now the survey send a clear and welcome message of resilient economic growth and sharply waning inflation,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Treasury yields in the bond market erased earlier losses following the report. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.17% from 4.14% late Tuesday. The two-year Treasury yield, which moves more on expectations for the Fed, held at 4.38% after dropping as low as 4.26% shortly before the report.

Economic reports coming later in the week could further sway expectations for rate cuts this year. On Thursday, the government will give its first estimate for how quickly the economy grew during the end of 2023. A day later, it will give the latest monthly update on the measure of inflation that the Federal Reserve prefers to use.

Virtually no one expects the Fed to cut rates at its meeting next week, but traders are still betting on a nearly 42% probability that it will move in March, according to data from CME Group.

Until then, earnings reports from companies may cause some of the biggest moves in the market.

Textron jumped 7.8% after the conglomerate behind Bell helicopters and Cessna jets reported profit for the latest quarter that was stronger than analysts expected.

On the losing end was Kimberly-Clark, which fell 5.5% after the maker of Huggies and Kleenex reported weaker profit and revenue than expected. DuPont tumbled 14% after it gave forecasts for upcoming revenue and profit that fell short of analysts’ estimates. It said it’s continuing to see weak demand form China, among other challenges.

China's stock market has been one of the world's worst recently on worries about its economy, which has raised pressure on Chinese authorities to make moves to stimulate the economy. Stocks climbed 1.8% in Shanghai following China's move to free up cash held by banks. They're still down 5.2% for the year so far.

Stocks also rose across much of Europe but dipped in Tokyo.

ASX 200 expected to rise again​

The Australian share market looks set to rise again on Thursday following a good night of trade on Wall Street.

According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 18 points or 0.2% higher this morning.

Wall Street was mixed Wednesday after strong gains for Netflix and some influential technology stocks helped offset losses across much of the U.S. stock market.

The S&P 500 added 3.95 points, or 0.1%, to 4,868.55 and set a record for a fourth straight day. The strength for tech stocks had the Nasdaq composite leading the market with a gain of 55.97, or 0.4%, to 15,481.92. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 99.06, or 0.3%, to 37,806.39.

 

[bigdog]

Have a great Australia Day holiday today

Stock market today: Wall Street rises after data on the economy stomps expectations

U.S. stocks closed higher following signals that the economy is growing more powerfully than economists expected.

apnews.com

Wall Street rises after data on the economy stomps expectations​

By STAN CHOE

NEW YORK (AP) — Most U.S. stocks rose Thursday following the latest signal the economy remains much stronger than expected.

The S&P 500 added 25.61 points, or 0.4%, to 4,894.16 and set a record for a fifth straight day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 242.74, or 0.6%, to 38,049.13, and the Nasdaq composite gained 28.58, or 0.2%, to 15,510.50.

IBM helped lead the market with a gain of 9.5% after it reported a better profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Four out of five stocks in the S&P 500 rose alongside it, but Tesla kept the market’s gains in check with its drop of 12.1%.

The electric-vehicle maker reported earnings and revenue that fell short of forecasts and warned of lower sales growth this year. As one of the largest stocks on Wall Street, its movements carry extra weight on indexes, and it was the heaviest weight by far on the S&P 500.

Wall Street’s main focus was on a report indicating the U.S. economy continues to steam ahead, demolishing last year’s forecasts for an imminent recession because of high interest rates.

The economy grew at a 3.3% annual rate in the last three months of 2023, according to an initial estimate by the U.S. government. That was much stronger than the 1.8% growth economists expected, according to FactSet. Such a resilient economy should drive profits for companies, which are one of the main inputs that set stock prices.

The report also gave encouraging corroboration that inflation continued to moderate at the end of 2023. Hopes are high that inflation has cooled enough from its peak two summers ago for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates this year. That in turn would ease the pressure on financial markets and boost investment prices.

Such cuts would be a sharp turnaround from the prior two years of dramatic hikes to rates by the Fed, which was trying to get painfully high inflation under control.

“The headline data are the perfect mix of strong consumption and dropping inflation,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group. “This is exactly what you want to see if you are running the Fed and want to move rates lower this year.”

A separate report showed that more U.S. workers applied for unemployment benefits last week, but the number remains low relative to history and indicates a still-resilient job market.

Of course, critics say traders on Wall Street are still overly optimistic about how many times the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2024, and when it will begin. Traders are betting on a better than coin flip’s chance for six cuts this year, which would be double what the Fed has indicated.

Wall Street also added to bets that the Fed would begin cutting rates as soon as March following the morning’s economic report. They’re now betting on a better than 50% probability, according to data from CME Group.

“The problem for traders is that rate cut expectations still have a ways to go to adjust to the reality that the Fed doesn’t need to be in a hurry to cut,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management.

Treasury yields fell in the bond market on expectations for rate cuts. The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.12% from 4.16% before the report’s release and from 4.18% late Wednesday. In October, it was at 5% and its highest level since 2007.

Elsewhere on Wall Street, earnings season continued to pick up the pace with more than two dozen companies in the S&P 500 reporting their latest results late Wednesday or early Thursday.

American Airlines rose 10.3% after reporting profit for the latest quarter that was much stronger than what analysts were expecting. United Rentals jumped 13% after the equipment rental company reported stronger profit than expected, raised its dividend and said it would buy back $1.5 billion of its stock this year.

On the losing end of Wall Street, Humana tumbled 11.7% after the insurer reported worse results for the end of 2023 than expected. It also gave a forecast for the full year of 2024 that fell well below Wall Street’s estimate because of higher medical costs. Other insurers also dropped, including a 3.9% fall for UnitedHealth Group.

In Europe, stock indexes were little changed after the European Central Bank held interest rates steady.

In Asia, stocks jumped more in China after authorities made moves in hopes of bolstering financial markets and the economy. They rose 2% in Hong Kong and 3% in Shanghai but remain down for the year so far.

 

[bigdog]

Was at the Melbourne Shrine in St Kilda Road yesterday
-- there was the 21 canon shooting salute as in the past
-- last year 2023, we had the 5 Air Force Roulettes flew substantially over Melbourne
-- yesterday there was on Mustang P51 plane that did a single flyover

Stock market today: Wall Street closes its 12th winning week in the last 13 with a mixed finish

Wall Street closed its latest winning week with a mixed finish, as drops for technology stocks dragged on the market. The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% Friday.

apnews.com

Wall Street closes its 12th winning week in the last 13 with a mixed finish​

By STAN CHOE

NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street closed out its latest winning week with a mixed finish on Friday, as drops for technology stocks dragged on the market.

The S&P 500 slipped 3.19 points, or 0.1%, to 4,890.97. It’s the first decline for the index after a six-day winning streak led it to set record highs for five straight days.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 60.30, or 0.2%, to 38,109.43. The weakness for tech stocks, meanwhile, dragged the Nasdaq composite to a loss of 55.13, or 0.4%, to 15,455.36.

Intel led chip stocks lower even though it reported stronger profit for the last three months of 2023 than analysts expected. It dropped 11.9% after giving forecasts for revenue and profit for the start of 2024 that fell short of Wall Street’s estimates.

KLA, a supplier for the chip industry, also dragged on tech stocks despite reporting better quarterly results than expected. It sank 6.6% after saying it still sees market conditions as challenging in the near term and giving a forecast for upcoming revenue that fell short of analysts’ estimates.

KLA, a supplier for the chip industry, also dragged on tech stocks despite reporting better quarterly results than expected. It sank 6.6% after saying it still sees market conditions as challenging in the near term and giving a forecast for upcoming revenue that fell short of analysts’ estimates.

The U.S. stock market nevertheless closed out another winning week as reports keep suggesting inflation is cooling while the economy continues to power higher. The unexpected backdrop has hopes high that Wall Street’s dream scenario can come true: one where a resilient economy drives profits higher for companies, while inflation moderates enough to get the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates many times this year.

The latest report on Friday showed the measure of inflation the Fed prefers to use behaved just about exactly as expected in December. Overall inflation by that measure was 2.6% during the month, matching November’s rate.

The Fed pays more attention to the inflation figure after ignoring prices for food and fuel, which can zigzag sharply month to month. That figure cooled to 2.9% from 3.2% and was a bit better than economists expected.

At the same time, spending by U.S. consumers strengthened by more in December than expected. That helped calm worries that a resilient U.S. economy, which has so far refused to fall into a long-predicted recession, would mean upward pressure on inflation.

The expectation is for the labor market to soften some in upcoming months, which would further cool pressure on inflation, but not enough to halt the economy’s growth. That has the market looking forward to what EY Chief Economist Gregory Daco calls “the ‘holy grail’ of non-inflationary growth.”

Treasury yields yo-yoed in the bond market following the report but later rose modestly. The yield on the 10-year Treasury edged up to 4.13% from 4.12% late Thursday.

The Federal Reserve’s next meeting next week will likely end with no change to interest rates, but traders are split on whether it could begin cutting rates in March. That would be a sharp turnaround from the last two years, when the Fed hiked its main interest rate to the highest level since 2001. It’s trying to slow the economy and hurt investment prices enough through high interest rates to get inflation fully under control.

Traders are betting the Fed will cut interest rates as many as six times this year, according to data from CME Group. That would be double what the Fed itself has indicated.

Critics say that overzealousness may be setting financial markets up for disappointment after their big rallies in recent months.

For now, though, the mood is still mostly ebullient on Wall Street.

American Express jumped 7.1% for the biggest gain in the S&P 500, even though it reported weaker results for the latest quarter than expected. It gave forecasts for revenue and profit for the full year of 2024 that were stronger than analysts’, while also announcing plans to boost its dividend payout to investors.

Colgate-Palmolive climbed 2% after the company in control of more than 40% of the global toothpaste market reported stronger profit and revenue for the latest quarter than analysts forecast.

JetBlue Airways rose 3.6% after it said it may end its bid to buy rival Spirit Airlines as soon as this weekend. A federal judge has already blocked the deal because of worries it could lead to higher fares for customers, which both airlines had said they intended to appeal.

Spirit’s stock tumbled 13.4% to bring its loss for the year so far to nearly 62%.

In stock markets abroad, indexes were higher across much of Europe but mixed in Asia.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slumped 1.6% to give back some of its strong gain for the week, which was spurred by Chinese authorities’ moves to stabilize markets and the world’s second-largest economy. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.3% to pare its big gain for the year so far.

 

[bigdog]

ASX 200 expected to rise again​

Another positive session is expected for the Australian share market on Monday.

According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 14 points or 0.2% higher this morning.

On Friday. Wall Street closed out its latest winning week with a mixed finish on Friday, as drops for technology stocks dragged on the market.

The S&P 500 slipped 3.19 points, or 0.1%, to 4,890.97. It’s the first decline for the index after a six-day winning streak led it to set record highs for five straight days.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 60.30, or 0.2%, to 38,109.43. The weakness for tech stocks, meanwhile, dragged the Nasdaq composite to a loss of 55.13, or 0.4%, to 15,455.36

 

[bigdog]

Stock market today: Asian shares are mixed, with Chinese shares falling, ahead of Fed rate decision

Asian shares are mixed, with Hong Kong and Shanghai declining, ahead of a decision by the Federal Reserve this week on interest rates. U.S. futures and oil prices edged higher.

lufkindailynews.com

Wall Street climbs ahead of Big Tech profit reports and Fed meeting​

Stocks rose to kick off a week where Wall Street’s most influential stocks may show whether the huge expectations built up for them are justified

By STAN CHOE - AP Business Writer Jan 29, 2024

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks rose Monday to kick off a week where Wall Street’s most influential stocks may show whether the huge expectations built up for them are justified.

The S&P 500 gained 36.96 points, or 0.8%, to set another record at 4,927.93. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 224.02, or 0.6%, to 38,333.45, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 172.68, or 1.1%, to 15,628.04.

Big Tech stocks are the main reason the S&P 500 has soared more than 35% to a record since two autumns ago. A small handful of seven has been responsible for the majority of the index’s returns over that time, propelled by a furor around artificial-intelligence technology and expectations for continued dominance.

Five members of that group, nicknamed “the Magnificent Seven,” will report their latest quarterly profits this upcoming week: Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms and Microsoft.

Because they’re so much more massive in size than almost every other stock, their movements pack much more weight on the S&P 500 and other indexes. They’ll need to meet analysts’ expectations for growth to justify their huge recent moves.

And that’s not all that’s coming this week.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will make its latest decision on what to do with interest rates. Traders expect it to make no move, but the hope is that it may cut interest rates at its next meeting in March. That would mark the first downward move since the Fed began dramatically raising interest rates two years ago to get inflation under control.

Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle expects the Fed “to aim to keep a March cut on the table." It could do that by dropping the “for some time” qualifier it used in the minutes for its last meeting in describing how long it expects to keep rates high.

A wave of encouraging data has Wall Street believing its dream scenario can come true: The Fed will successfully conquer high inflation and deliver the cuts to rates that investors crave, while the economy skirts through without falling into a recession that seemed inevitable last year.

On Friday, an economic report could bolster or weaken beliefs in that dream. The government will release the latest monthly update on the job market, and economists expect it to show continued growth in hiring, but at a cooler pace. That’s exactly what the Fed would want to see because too much growth could mean upward pressure on inflation.

Treasury yields sank in the bond market ahead of the Fed’s meeting, and after the U.S. Treasury Department said it may not borrow as much as it earlier expected in the January-through-March quarter. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.07% from 4.14% late Friday, easing the pressure on the stock market.

This profit reporting season is expected to be lackluster, with analysts forecasting a fourth drop in earnings per share for S&P 500 companies in the last five quarters. But it would be even worse without the Magnificent Seven.

Facebook’s parent company, Meta Platforms, is expected to be the single biggest contributor to growth for the overall S&P 500, according to FactSet. Nvidia is close behind, followed by Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet and Amazon.

Companies so far this reporting season have not been getting as big a boost to their stock price as usual after topping analysts’ forecasts.

Franklin Resources, an investment manager, slipped 0.3% even though it reported stronger profit and revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected.

SoFi Technologies did better, and its stock jumped 20.2% after the financial services company reported stronger results for the last three months of 2023 than analysts expected. Its forecast for profit this upcoming year also topped analysts' estimates.

Archer Daniels Midland jumped 5.6% for the biggest gain in the S&P 500 to recover some of its sharp loss from last week, after it put its chief financial officer on leave and said it's investigating some of its accounting practices. In a message to employees on Friday, ADM CEO Juan Luciano said that “these sales do not materially affect our overall results.”

On the losing side of Wall Street, iRobot fell 8.8% after agreeing to call off its purchase by Amazon following scrutiny from antitrust regulators.

Monday kicked off with a Hong Kong court’s decision to order the liquidation of China Evergrande, the world’s most indebted property developer. Chinese markets were mixed following the ruling, with stocks rising in Hong Kong and falling in Shanghai.

Chinese authorities also made moves to make it more difficult for some investors to “short” Chinese stocks, or bet that their prices will fall. China’s stock markets have been among the world’s worst so far this year amid worries about not only its trouble property industry but also its weak economic recovery.

ASX 200 expected to rise​

The Australian share market is expected to rise on Tuesday following a good start to the week on Wall Street.

According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is poised to open the day 38 points or 0.6% higher.

U.S. stocks rose Monday to kick off a week where Wall Street’s most influential stocks may show whether the huge expectations built up for them are justified.

The S&P 500 gained 36.96 points, or 0.8%, to set another record at 4,927.93. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 224.02, or 0.6%, to 38,333.45, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 172.68, or 1.1%, to 15,628.04.

Market Watch

 

[bigdog]

Alphabet Cl A (GOOGL-Q) Quote - Press Release

Detailed price information for Alphabet Cl A (GOOGL-Q) from The Globe and Mail including charting and trades.

www.theglobeandmail.com

Wall Street holds near its record heights​

Stan Choe

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks drifted through a quiet Tuesday and held near their record heights following a mixed set of profit reports.

The S&P 500 slipped 2.96 points, or 0.1%, from its record to 4,924.97. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 133.86, or 0.3%, to 38,467.31, and the Nasdaq composite fell 118.15, or 0.8%, to 15,509.90.

UPS slumped 8.2% even though it reported stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Its revenue fell short of Wall Street’s estimates, and it also gave a forecast for full-year revenue in 2024 that was weaker than expected.

Whirlpool sank 6.6% despite likewise reporting a better profit than expected. Its forecast for 2024 revenue of $16.9 billion was roughly $1 billion below analysts’ estimates.

Helping to offset those losses was General Motors. The automaker jumped 7.8% after reporting stronger profit and revenue than expected.

Treasury yields were also mixed in the bond market following reports that showed the economy remains stronger than expected. One said confidence among consumers is climbing, while another suggested the job market may be warmer than forecast.

U.S. employers advertised 9 million job openings at the end of December, which was a touch more than economists expected and slightly above November’s level. Traders were expecting the data to show a cooldown in the number of openings.

A drawdown would have fit more neatly into the trend that’s carried Wall Street to a record: a slowdown in the economy’s growth strong enough to keep a lid on inflation but not so much that it will create a recession.

Hopes for a continued such trend are what have Wall Street foaming about the possibility of several cuts to interest rates by the Federal Reserve this year. Cuts would mark a sharp turnaround from the Fed's dramatic hikes to rates over the last two years, and the reductions would give a boost to the economy and investment prices.

The Federal Reserve began its latest policy meeting on interest rates Tuesday, but virtually no one expects it to cut rates this soon. That won’t stop economists and traders from parsing every word coming out of the Fed Wednesday after its meeting finishes. They’ll be searching for clues that a rate cut may arrive at its next meeting in March.

“We think markets are overly optimistic that we’ll see a Fed interest rate cut in March,” said Joe Davis, chief economist at Vanguard. “It likely will be midyear before policymakers are confident that they have reined in inflation sufficiently to start cutting their target for short-term interest rates.”

The two-year Treasury yield, which moves closely with expectations for the Fed’s action, rose to 4.36% from 4.32% late Monday. It moved decisively higher following the release of the economic reports.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which is the centerpiece of the bond market, fell to 4.04% from 4.09% late Monday.

After trading ended on Wall Street Tuesday, a pair of the market’s most influential stocks also reported their latest quarterly results.

As two of the largest stocks in the market by value, Microsoft and Alphabet have outsized sway on the S&P 500 and other indexes. They, along with five other Big Tech stocks, have accounted for the majority of the S&P 500’s torrid rally since hitting a bottom two Octobers ago.

Three more of the “Magnificent Seven” Big Tech stocks will report their results on Thursday: Apple, Amazon and Meta Platforms. They’ll also need to hit expectations to justify their massive leaps.

Companies that have reported better profits than expected so far this reporting have not been getting as big a pop as usual, analysts say.

JetBlue Airways sank 4.7% despite reporting a milder loss for the last three months of 2023 than analysts expected. It said it expects revenue to be roughly flat in 2024, while its cost pressures outside of fuel will likely rise.

In stock markets abroad, Chinese indexes slumped to tack more losses onto their already tough start to the year.

Shares in property developer China Evergrande Group, the world’s most heavily indebted real estate company, remained suspended from trading after a Hong Kong court ordered the liquidation of the company.

Other property companies led the decline in Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng index sank 2.3%. Stocks in Shanghai gave up 1.8%.

Chinese regulators have been moving to prop up the markets amid worries about the troubled property industry and disappointing growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

Stocks were mixed elsewhere in Asia and modestly higher in Europe.

ASX 200 expected to rise marginally​

The Australian share market looks set to rise marginally on Wednesday following a quiet night on Wall Street.

According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 1 point higher.
U.S. stocks drifted through a quiet Tuesday and held near their record heights following a mixed set of profit reports.

The S&P 500 slipped 2.96 points, or 0.1%, from its record to 4,924.97. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 133.86, or 0.3%, to 38,467.31, and the Nasdaq composite fell 118.15, or 0.8%, to 15,509.90.


Market Watch