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NXS - Nexus Energy

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Thanks for the briefing note. It does make a good read and highlights how far NXS has come in a pretty short time. I am really surprised that this particular forum isn't a lot larger than it is considering the rapid SP rise. I've been in this one since the 80c days, sitting on some nice $$.

I'm not so sure that the SP will fall that far on a bad drilling report. We still have the cash to come in from the Longtom development pretty soon which will help stabilise things too (a little while away I appreciate), but the company is sitting on some good size deposits and appears to have the partners with deep enough pockets to help get it out.

I intend holding this one right through to production. I still think there are large gains to be made even at current prices.
 
This share is featured by Garimpiero in Monday's Age (03/09/2007) and will therefore take off today, especially given the US results on Friday and the very imminent drill results in the next few days.

In addition, I note that Comm Sec Private Advisory is recommending a buy at the current sp. Sadly, I am not yet a holder in this stock, but I will be before the day is out. The undermentioned chart surely indicates that sp should achieve $2+ sooner rather than later:

 
Greenfs,

You were right about it going up today, raced up to 187 early but looks like settling back a little now. Plenty of good news yet to come for NXS, my broker still has it as a buy as well even at prices above 178.5 (last week's close). Should be a good ride for the next 12 months or so...
 
Not a very encouraging announcement after the close today. I wonder how the market will react. I hope its not as bad as the last plunge from 1.30 to 90c.
 
gees guys,

nxs dropped off heaps today, was the market already factoring in massive gas reserves to be found. Hope it is still a pretty good buy, picked more up at 1.35 today. hopefully more drilling brings on more positive results.
 
The reason the sp dropped today is that I bought some yesterday (lol). The real reason isue to the disappointing drill result announced after COB yesterday. $1.35 should become the base with another gradual rise from ther going forward.
 
Ouch!!

Fossetmaker-1 well gave a disappointing result but I don't understand the market slamming the SP so hard. This well was to try to expand the existing Echuca Shoals reserve (NXS has 66% stake, the rest with Shell) and surely wasn't already fully factored into the SP?? Yet the stock got slaughtered today with the poor well result.

Couldn't help but notice the company was quick to put out a positive result regarding the Longtom field for which NXS has 100% stake. But it didn't do much to underpin the SP.

Hopefully we will see a recovery of sorts when the Crux resource estimates are released late this month.
 
Fair enough guys,

So the result was not that great. So you guys reckon nxs, has been punished unfairly, as the well wasn't factored in that much. Hope this is the case, if so then should be a good opp to buy in.

Anyway, i'm been holding this for a while. Just treated this as a buying opp and bought more. topped up another 4k, currently holding 13k worth. Hope Echuca Schoals, lives up to expectation if so, we should be able to pocket some nice profits.

There's a broker report that has a 4.00 price target on the stock on the nxs website, you guys reckon this is realistic?

Don't normally see reponses so promptly, good to see some interest here.

cheers guys.
 
Thanks Ezza,

Nice to see some activity in this thread. Struggling to see why it has been so quiet given the positive results NXS has achieved quite quickly and with the large SP rise over the past 6 mths. I am holding a reasonable no of these (25k shares) and as I've said before have been in since the price was in the high 70s, early 80s.

Still believe that the SP has been unfairly hit with the bad news on the last drill. As has been said already tonight, there is very strong support around the 135 mark and I'd expect to see some consolidation before the SP starts rising slowly again. Positive results on Crux at the end of Sept would provide the basis to recover much of today's losses I'd guess.

If you have a look at their website and the presentation in the ann today, they have a number of strong plans that are all approaching production, plenty of cash in the bank to develop them further, and some very strong partners who are keen (Shell, Santos and the Japanese gas company whose name escapes me for now).

I don't know about a $4 target anytime in a hurry but it wouldn't at all surprise me to see it rise a long long way from where it is now (130-140) upon a few positive announcements on the Crux and Longtom projects over the next 6-12 months. I don't plan on any exits until we are well over the $2-2.20 mark which won't be that far away I'm hoping.

Please DYOR though.......
 
View attachment Nexus Briefing 20070331.pdf

Please consider the above initial brief from Baillieu. Also, the following note issued by Baillieu representative Campbell Thompson on 31/08/2007 is provided:

Nexus has released its latest weekly drilling report, showing that the Fossetmarket-1 well in the Echuca Shoals gas/condensate field was still drilling ahead at 3490 metres true vertical depth. The well has a target depth of 3,800 metres and at the current depth should be drilling through the 200-metre “zone of interest” today or tomorrow. Nexus needs to find a gas pay zone of 20-30 metres thickness for the field to be proven commercial beyond doubt and we may not hear the results of the well until next Tuesday. The central well in the field produced 200 metres of gas-bearing sands with very high levels of condensate (100 barrels per million cubic feet). Fossetmaker-1 is being drilled 7 kilometres to the North-East of the Echuca Shoals-1 discovery well. We see downside of 35-30 cents if this well is a duster but see upside to $2.50 if the pay zone is greater than 50 metres and condensate ratios are confirmed.
 
I know nexus has longtom and crux, reserves.

How much of the current share price is factoring in success of the echuca schoals field?

there a lot of talk about the echuca field hosting massive reserves. I think the market has been spooked by the fosseltaker well being located not too far from echuca s, not hosting promising reserves.

i guess it'll be hard to make any judgement until the echuca s wells are drilled.

does anyone have any valuation on nexus purely based on the longtom and crux fields alone? just curious to find out the base base of the company, without echuca.

anyway, i see support at 1.28. hope to see some consolidation soon.
 
The following extract from a Baillieu Report issued by Campbell Thompson pre the bad news yesterday is provided:

Nexus Energy – Sensitivity to Fossetmaker -1 Well

Emerging oil and gas producer Nexus Energy has announced that the Fossetmaker-1 well has spudded in the Echuca Shoals permit in the offshore Browse Basin West Australia. The Echuca Shoals field is a potentially large gas-condensate play and if the Fosstemaker well is successful it would take Nexus shares to a new level. We have revised our NXS share price sensitivities with two scenarios – pessimistic and optimistic – to predict the medium- term impact of the well on the company’s valuation. Failure of the well to produce commercial gas flows or lacklustre condensate levels would risk 20-25 cents of downside to the share price in the short term.
 


Interesting, thanks for the post.

This would have been handy pre announcement, dropped off a little more than 20 25c, maybe will see a little bit of a recovery in the short term.
 
interesting to c nxs play pac man on anzon, once the hunted now the hunter.
buying strategic stake in aza.

is 13% enough of a stake to block the other competition namely origin, awe, agl.

i hope nxs can pull this one off, long way to go yet. this takeover would be advantageous for nxs, acquiring a producer until they start producing there on fields in a yrs time. Very interesting, also putting less pressure on echuca schoals expectations, acquiring aza assets.

anyone still in this one?
 
Yeah, i bought more about 3 or 4 weeks ago.
I've always considered them a good long term investment.

I hope they succeed with take-over of Anzon.
 
Yes still here EZZA,

Nice recovery in SP of late but some way still to go before we get back to where we were. I am still of the view that there is good value in holding through closer to production for their own fields. Haven't sold anything down yet and have been holding since the 80-90c days. Latest announcement just gives more confidence to hold I think. An interesting move....
 
NXS sliding a little after the announcement. Perhaps not too surprising..

The move for Anzon seems to be protecting the 12% or so NXS has held in it since the unsuccessful takeover in 2006. This move is probably because Anzon has indicated that the company could be for sale so NXS has taken defensive action. Sadly, this does tie up some cash that I'd rather see used to fund the NXS drill program over the next 18 months which is fairly busy.

Waiting to hear from Santos as to whether they want to own 35% of the Longtom venture (currently 100% NXS). They have 80 days to decide from early Sept and the buyin price is between $2-3M per percentage point - ie 35% will cost them between $70-105M. Another well will be done there in 2Q 2008 and NXS still believe gas production is achievable in 3Q 2008. I'd guess if Santos come on board, then we should see some further action in SP as it will vindicate the Longtom field.

With FID on the Crux field in 2Q 2008 as well (more wells due there in early 2008), there will be some interesting times ahead for NXS I think....

Will continue to hold my shares in this one for now....
 
Are any of the Nexus followers, long term holders? If so what are your thoughts on the quality of management and their performance and choice of projects.

I have just read an article which makes a comparison to WPL 25 years ago ! They seem worth investigating.


Thanks in advance.

FUTURE FOR NXS ?
 


Hi folks,

NXS ... positive cycle coming into play 15102007 = more good news ??? .....

have a great weekend

paul



=====
 
Trader Paul said:


Hi folks,

NXS ... positive cycle coming into play 15102007 = more good news ??? .....

have a great weekend

paul



=====
Click to expand...

hi trader paul

why the positive cycle, is it because this time last year nxs was surging?

cheers
Ezz
 
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