NWE - Norwest Energy

[noirua]

Nearly 4 million shares traded, up to 19.5 cents.

 

[Serpie]

I believe that it's a 1.25% free carried "royalty", which provides more than 1.25% of the "profit".
They just sit back and collect the cheques - don't need to do any work.

 

[Rob_ee]

Thanks for the explanations people .... learning all the time

Rob

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

NWE previously released 49m recoverable barrels which gave a royalty stream value of $41m


So I'm betting they will take the P50 figure again = 65m bls, apply a "conservative" 44% recovery factor as they have in the past which will give them 28.6m bls recoverable


So total recoverable barrels = 49m + 28.6m = 77.6m

Now if 49m recoverable bls = $41m royalty cash flow

Then 77.6m recoverable bls should = $65m cash flow


With 200m shares on issue = Royalty value of 32.5c attributable to NWE!!!!

Thats my call

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

This is really funny, mkt will only realise potential once NWE announce what AED already have

 

[djones]

This is a month old but a very good read:

http://www.norwestenergy.com.au/files/resourcesmodule/@random45d104e854a64/1171326253_NWE_080207.pdf

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Yeah, I'd say that 26.5c valuation target of theirs will be hit tomorrow or monday,

Time for an updated valuation report me thinks

 

[chops_a_must]

Hhhmm, I don't normally like to give a running commentry of stocks during the day, but at 12.33 a few decent orders went through. Ppl getting set for this announcement that seems to have been well telegraphed....strange.

I think it caught a lot of people off guard due to this being the first announcement from AED during market trading, that I can remember. The only question now is whether to pyramid up or not...

With 200m shares on issue = Royalty value of 32.5c attributable to NWE!!!!

Thats my call

Interestingly, if you take the run from 10c to 20.5c as the first leg up, multiply that by 1.61, then add that to the recent intraday low of 14c, you get close to 31c. So that is my tip. And given that NWE and AED trade at a ridiculously low level compared to their value, it is consistent with a conservative SP valuation. (Not saying it isn't worth more, just that would be where it gets to.)

So yes, I'm tipping 31c sometime early next week or there abouts.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

With 10mins to go before pre-open be interesting to see if we get any big last minute buying,

Surely NWE's royalty ann will be out tomorrow

 

[beach]

making price prediction for nwe for the short term is a waste of time, yes the stock is undervalued but time in the market place will be the judge of that as nwe has been undervalued for quite sometime already. once the oil starts flowing in june/july or if we get any news on bounder your price prediction might come to fruition,, best of luck beach, ps i hold what is a great stock,

 

[nizar]

For this to breakout we need new buying momentum to overcome the sellers from the last spike, where about 6million+ shares went through at 19.5 and 20c.

Once we clear 20c, this will run... in my opinion...

 

[Serpie]

Looks like a huge cross on open at 19.5. That should clear out som e of the old holders and introduce some new blood.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

We'll have to wait for NWE Royalty value ann,

As stated using previous estimates, I reckon it'll be $65m royalty = 32.5c NWE

 

[Stimpy]

Looks like a huge cross on open at 19.5. That should clear out som e of the old holders and introduce some new blood.

Is it me, or did about 2M buys disappear just before open?

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Can't believe the Arbitrage!


We know reserves have gone up by minimum 50%, we know it was previously worth 20c, so we can infer it will now be worth minimum 30c, we also can infer that NWE will announce this either today or monday, but I'd say today since AED announced yesterday.

I am curious is there anyone watching this stock who thinks the fundamentals look good but haven't yet bought?

If so I would like to know why haven't you bought?

Are you waiting for it to break 20c so it'll run?

Are you waiting for the NWE ann to confirm royalty upgrade value?

Or are you just generally waiting for mkt to settle?

 

[Bush Trader]

Is it me, or did about 2M buys disappear just before open?

I think your right. The Offer pulled back to 16.5c and the Bid 15.5c on my market depth analysis about 5 minutes prior to opening and then returned just after 10:00. I thought it was just a glitch in the system. Either that or it may have something to do with good for the day orders from yesterday being transferred to good to cancelled orders that are “adjusted on the next available market”???

 

[nizar]

Are you waiting for it to break 20c so it'll run?

YES
See my previous post.
Alot of resistance at 19.5 and 20c, needs big volume to overcome those.

 

[chops_a_must]

YES
See my previous post.
Alot of resistance at 19.5 and 20c, needs big volume to overcome those.

These got lifted and moved to the 19.5 and 20 level from 17.5 just after the AED announcement. Looks like someone is capping and accumulating. I'm hoping these will disappear after the next announcement again.

 

[Bush Trader]

Can't believe the Arbitrage!


We know reserves have gone up by minimum 50%, we know it was previously worth 20c, so we can infer it will now be worth minimum 30c, we also can infer that NWE will announce this either today or monday, but I'd say today since AED announced yesterday.

I am curious is there anyone watching this stock who thinks the fundamentals look good but haven't yet bought?

If so I would like to know why haven't you bought?

Are you waiting for it to break 20c so it'll run?

Are you waiting for the NWE ann to confirm royalty upgrade value?

Or are you just generally waiting for mkt to settle?

I’ve bee watching it since early January, however have not purchased for a number of reasons; market uncertainty, pooling a worthwhile stake together in order to enter, and seeing a positive break above resistance at 17c. The rumour has been bought, however the fact has not yet been sold. I thought 20c and an announcement were a sure thing at open today, however it has not eventuated. There is plenty of volume compared to the price action which tells me that there are a lot of punters who want out for some reason. Perceived stock valuations are not always rational, look at others stocks in the sector with NPV’s well above trading levels i.e. GGP & ARQ etc. Don’t get me wrong, I think it will be a good thing, however it might not be on the right radars as yet.


Cheers

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Thanks guys, just trying to get an understanding of where others are viewing it from