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With ann like todays why would you sell for 18?????????
NWE - Norwest Energy
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mobcat said:
Disappointing end to the session, poor expectations of US Job numbers have weighed heavily on the market this afternoon. Punters are closing out longs in anticipation.
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mobcat said:
I don't think anyone read the second announcement.
It was definitely market sensitive but not marked as such - isn't that against the rules?
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Day traders forced to exit positions I think
Wierdest thing I have seen
60% Royalty increase = 10% decrease in SP
Yet there are so many other speccie turds rocketing 30-50% on spec news
WEIRD!
Wierdest thing I have seen
60% Royalty increase = 10% decrease in SP
Yet there are so many other speccie turds rocketing 30-50% on spec news
WEIRD!
doctorj
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YT, you are fighting an uphill battle with market sentiment for junior oilers. Despite jnr oilers with revenue streams never having priced in the USD80/bbl, they were sold off with the pull back. The 'hot money' is still scavenging about in uranium hoping to strike it rich whilst there are plenty of oilers with revenue, near term drilling of highly leveraged targets wallowing about unloved.
NWE has the one thing that a company like BKP would kill for - a solid revenue stream to underpin the drilling of its prospects. Yet BKP is far more volatile and up till recently was worth much more.
FAR is in much the same boat as NWE. Revenue, a stack of cash in the bank, and plenty of good prospects, including a 30% stake of a massive whack of land off Senegal in the same basin as Hardman that they're currently finishing the 3d seismic on and yet they wallow about unloved. Its a constant reminder to me that the market can stay illogical longer than one can stay solvent.
NWE has the one thing that a company like BKP would kill for - a solid revenue stream to underpin the drilling of its prospects. Yet BKP is far more volatile and up till recently was worth much more.
FAR is in much the same boat as NWE. Revenue, a stack of cash in the bank, and plenty of good prospects, including a 30% stake of a massive whack of land off Senegal in the same basin as Hardman that they're currently finishing the 3d seismic on and yet they wallow about unloved. Its a constant reminder to me that the market can stay illogical longer than one can stay solvent.
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I know rock solid positive news in a market looking for positives and a drop in sp you no what i think i would not like to be the person who is responsible for marking price sensitve ann could be a DCM 
as far as i can see NWE is going to go off when the broader market gets wind of this ann and rightly so imo.
CHEERS
as far as i can see NWE is going to go off when the broader market gets wind of this ann and rightly so imo. CHEERS
Wierdest thing I have seen 60% Royalty increase = 10% decrease in SP
Maybe traders are looking for a cheaper entry on Monday morning.
Shaghai in the red at the moment and US job report data release later tonight is forcast to dissapoint triggering a possible sell of Monday.... depending of course what happens tonight in the USA.
I've bought nothing today .. wait and see
Good luck YT ... hope it goes for you
Rob
Maybe traders are looking for a cheaper entry on Monday morning.
Shaghai in the red at the moment and US job report data release later tonight is forcast to dissapoint triggering a possible sell of Monday.... depending of course what happens tonight in the USA.
I've bought nothing today .. wait and see
Good luck YT ... hope it goes for you
Rob
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Having just finished speaking to 6 friends who are all on NWE,
NONE OF THEM SAW THE ANNOUNCEMENT!
Only after I told them did they realise,
It started because one of them called me to ask when do I expect more news, I was like so what today wasn't good enough for you, he said I thought Puffin was the key not Jingemia, anyway you get the picture,
For some reason none of them saw the ann come out at 2pm and since an ann had already come out in the morning NWE already had news today next to their name.
So I'm guessing Monday/uesday will be a better indicator,
Enjoy your weekend peeps
NONE OF THEM SAW THE ANNOUNCEMENT!
Only after I told them did they realise,
It started because one of them called me to ask when do I expect more news, I was like so what today wasn't good enough for you, he said I thought Puffin was the key not Jingemia, anyway you get the picture,
For some reason none of them saw the ann come out at 2pm and since an ann had already come out in the morning NWE already had news today next to their name.
So I'm guessing Monday/uesday will be a better indicator,
Enjoy your weekend peeps
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Good announcement, but can't believe its not market sensitive!
In essence they've announced that their 'royalty interest' in AC/P22 has increased by $24 million (approx 65% of current market cap) to $65 million (175% of current market cap). If this announcement doesn't warrant a market sensitive tag I don't know what does!
This makes NWE worth approx 32c just based on AC/P22 income not including 30% of AC/P32, Jingemia, North Sea & all the coming developments!
In essence they've announced that their 'royalty interest' in AC/P22 has increased by $24 million (approx 65% of current market cap) to $65 million (175% of current market cap). If this announcement doesn't warrant a market sensitive tag I don't know what does!
This makes NWE worth approx 32c just based on AC/P22 income not including 30% of AC/P32, Jingemia, North Sea & all the coming developments!
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Is this royalty figure a one off or is it per year for so long?
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Its a royalty thats paid out of gross sales not net profit, so thats why NWE simply calculates recoverable reserves of oil ie max potential saleable oil x oil price in AUD terms x their 1.25% interest
chops_a_must
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And another thing that people have forgotten, and that has not been calculated in value estimates for NWE, is that AED is HEDGED AT $70 per barrel.YOUNG_TRADER said:
So, Puffin is worth closer to $91m.
NWE is fair value at about 50c by my calcs.
I could not understand the sellers stacking up at 19.5 & 20c on Friday. Just moronic. Almost guaranteeing themselves that it wasn't going to get taken out. They would have been better of hitting the buyers at market if they were that desperate.
And I don't buy into it being uncertainty about the US figures, because none of my other small caps got nearly as much punishment.
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chops_a_must said:
Very true and either was US uncertainty shouldn't be present monday
Also is it hedged at US $70 a bl?
If so I completely forgot about that,
New Calcs:
77.6m recoverable barrels at $70 us = $5.432 Billion USD = $7.242 Billion AUD
NWE 1.25% Interest worth $90m AUD
+ $6m cash and $4m for other projects gives $100m = 50c NWE
So undervalued, so so undervalued!
chops_a_must
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I thought it was at a slightly higher percentage than this:YOUNG_TRADER said:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060419/pdf/3wc7zjd3mjmwv.pdf
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060407/pdf/3w78qzqt4610j.pdf
But it is also slightly higher than $70...
Not sure if this means >5% of the current reserves are hedged higher than $70... or if >5% of the then reserves...
Anyway, the Buffets on this forum need to take a serious look at both AED and NWE.
skint said:
No-one will know exactly what the flow rates are until they open the taps in June although they do have some estimates which have been discussed numerous times in this thread and in AED's thread and has been released in company announcements.
Cheers
Champ
Hey guys I think the reason NWE is not jumping up like a grasshoper is due to a number of reasons, namely that Puffin may not be as large as initial estimates. My mate who is a geologist warned me not to get too excited and bolt in but to wait and see.
That of course could be a detrimental starategy in itself and NWE could lunch to 30c leaving me in its wake!
Dont mind me just playing the devils advocate!
DYOR
That of course could be a detrimental starategy in itself and NWE could lunch to 30c leaving me in its wake!
Dont mind me just playing the devils advocate!
DYOR
I understand that this $65m + say $5m for other projects will take 9 years to come in.
So $70m / 9 = $7,777,778 per year income for NWE
There are 200m shares on issue so:
7,777,778 / 200,000,000 = 0.03888889
Doesnt that equal 3.8c per share earnings each year.
(obviously this is simplified and doesnt take into account changes in oil prices or what the present value of income streams are)
At EPS of 3.8c what would be a fair value for the share?
So $70m / 9 = $7,777,778 per year income for NWE
There are 200m shares on issue so:
7,777,778 / 200,000,000 = 0.03888889
Doesnt that equal 3.8c per share earnings each year.
(obviously this is simplified and doesnt take into account changes in oil prices or what the present value of income streams are)
At EPS of 3.8c what would be a fair value for the share?
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