NVN - Novion Property Group

[nulla nulla]

Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

The CFX share price not only rebounded from the $2.03 - $2.04 levels to the anticipated $2.09 it continued up to tickle $2.19. Someone must have miss read the script and kept buying when the share price pushed above $2.11. Last time CFX dipped to the $2.03 - $2.04 levels it looked like it was being held there while someone was accumulating on a largish scale. This time the share price has been pushed down on global uncertainty factors which usually means international investors are pulling the funds out of the share market and switching to US bonds as a safe haven for their dollars. This suspicion is supported somewhat by the fall in the Aud$ against the US$ (although the "jaw boning" by Glen Stevens could contribute to this also).

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Premium to NTA
CFX	2.050 ​	6,187,004,161​	0.1255​	6.12%​	0.1360​	6.63%​	16.33​	2.02​	1.49%​

With a yield of 6.63%, a price earnings ratio of 16.33 and the reporting season getting underway, traders may be wondering if this is a good point to enter for a trade or will the global uncertainty factors push the price down further? Hard call. As always do your own research and good luck.

 

[coolcup]

Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Premium to NTA
CFX	2.050 ​	6,187,004,161​	0.1255​	6.12%​	0.1360​	6.63%​	16.33​	2.02​	1.49%​

Hi nulla

Really enjoy reading your updates. Just FYI, CFX's NTA is $1.88 post the internalisation of the Colonial management platform earlier this year. This makes the premium to NTA slightly higher than the table in your post which reflects the value of the management rights which it acquired from CBA.

Cheers

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

Sorry about that.
let me know if you see any others I have missed.

Code	Closing Price	Capital	Earnings $	ROE	Dist $	Yield %	P/E	NTA $	Premium to NTA
CFX	2.050 ​	6,187,004,161​	0.1255​	6.12%​	0.1360​	6.63%​	16.33​	1.88​	9.04%​

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

I find this tempting for a trade entry at the moment. I can't decide as to whether CFX can bounce off support at $2.11 or if it will retest support at $2.04 - $2.05 as it has before?

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

Silveranger: There, CFX heard your call and caught up

Sometimes I really wonder how those rumours got started, last week they were on about WFD being the takeover target, and now CFX.

G'day Silver Ranger.

Is there a take over rumour circulating for CFX?

 

[coolcup]

Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

G'day Silver Ranger.

Is there a take over rumour circulating for CFX?

There sure is. Apparently Simon Property Group executives flew in to Sydney to hold talks with CFX as their entry to the Australian retail market and are more disposed to the CFX portfolio with its DFO outlets than the Scentre Group portfolio. It was reported in the Australian and AFR.

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

There sure is. Apparently Simon Property Group executives flew in to Sydney to hold talks with CFX as their entry to the Australian retail market and are more disposed to the CFX portfolio with its DFO outlets than the Scentre Group portfolio. It was reported in the Australian and AFR.

My good fortune was to fall to temptation and accumulate two modest parcels as it fell past $2.12 then sell them into the run up on the rumour. Must send "Simon" a thank you card.

 

[coolcup]

Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

My good fortune was to fall to temptation and accumulate two modest parcels as it fell past $2.12 then sell them into the run up on the rumour. Must send "Simon" a thank you card.

There was a Citigroup note out this morning saying they spoke with the Simon Property Group CEO last night who categorically denied he was in Sydney or was looking at a deal with CFX. No comment re Westfield or Scentre though...

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

There was a Citigroup note out this morning saying they spoke with the Simon Property Group CEO last night who categorically denied he was in Sydney or was looking at a deal with CFX. No comment re Westfield or Scentre though...

There is an article on Bloomberg today to the effect that the Simon Group has indicated that it is not part of their plans to invest in Australian REIT's. The A-REIT market has opened down today with SCG and CFX down more than the average.

 

[skc]

Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

My good fortune was to fall to temptation and accumulate two modest parcels as it fell past $2.12 then sell them into the run up on the rumour. Must send "Simon" a thank you card.

Same here... you got to love takeover rumours in your favour.

 

[VSntchr]

Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

Same here... you got to love takeover rumours in your favour.

I actually sold my CFX on the close the afternoon before the rumour

But my SCG short paid off this morning with the squashing of the rumour

 

[SilverRanger]

Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

I actually sold my CFX on the close the afternoon before the rumour

But my SCG short paid off this morning with the squashing of the rumour

I still hold, not much difference to you really. Wasn't expecting "Simon" to comment on rumours, very bad practice...

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

I still hold, not much difference to you really. Wasn't expecting "Simon" to comment on rumours, very bad practice...

I think the denial would be standard practice whether they are interested or not. I wonder if the "Australian" and the "Fin Review" will publish retractions?

 

[SilverRanger]

Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

I think the denial would be standard practice whether they are interested or not. I wonder if the "Australian" and the "Fin Review" will publish retractions?

A "no comment" would have been nice, at least that keeps the dream alive for some
The newspapers love these kind of "street talks", I saw it started last week with WFD, and now CFX, they might as well complete the saga with SCG.

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

A "no comment" would have been nice, at least that keeps the dream alive for some
The newspapers love these kind of "street talks", I saw it started last week with WFD, and now CFX, they might as well complete the saga with SCG.

Yes the McQuarrie Bank line "We do not comment on media speculation" is the best response. Keeps everyone guessing.

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

CFX seemed to be holding up on Thursday/Friday but a savage sell off in the closing auction, with more than fifteen million shares flooding the market, saw the closing price pushed down to $1.98. At one stage the volume was going to push the closing price down from the last trade before 4:00pm at $2.00 to $1.90. Fortunately for holders there was enough buyer support to soak up most of the dump.

 

[VSntchr]

Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

Fortunately for holders there was enough buyer support to soak up most of the dump.


View attachment 59492

I grabbed a few in the dump..was certainly interesting at about 4:05 when it was looking like $1.90 was coming!

 

[coolcup]

Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

Looks like some large insto has switched in the match out of CFX and into SCG - at least when combining the way CFX moved in the match to SCG's positive momentum in the match.

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

I grabbed a few in the dump..was certainly interesting at about 4:05 when it was looking like $1.90 was coming!

I lobbed two (2) bids at $1.975 hopeful to pick up between the initial $1.90 indicated and $1.97 but demand pushed the close up to $1.98. I missed out on a top-up, not a problem. I will re-evaluate on Monday morning.

Looks like some large insto has switched in the match out of CFX and into SCG - at least when combining the way CFX moved in the match to SCG's positive momentum in the match.

The value of the overall buy into scg was almost double the sell off in cfx. I agree that the volumes of the dump in cfx and the surge in scg indicate a switch but I suspect that there were additional funds pushed in as well. Is it possible some of the dump came from Abacus, which dropped almost 10% (for the week)? At this point SCG is the largest company in the A-REIT sector.

 

[System]

On November 3rd, 2014, CFS Retail Property Trust Group (CFX) changed its name and ASX code to Novion Property Group (NVN).