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NVN - Novion Property Group

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Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

Where $2.00 appeared to be a resistance level a few months back, it appears to have become a support level this year.




An increase in employment in the wholesaling sector credited to a rise in online shopping requiring more warehousing distribution centres appears to be underpinning the share price of CFX.

Share: CFX
Date: 22-Mar-13
Closing Price 2.07
Issued Shares 2,828,495,659
Capital 5,854,986,014
Earnings $ 0.1148
ROE 5.55%
Dist $ 0.134
Yield % 6.47%
P/E 18.03
NTA $ 2.05
Discount to NTA -0.98%


The yields at this level are still attractive and there appears to be no problem finding buyers to replace skittish profit takers. As always do your own research and good luck .
 
Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

Jumping arround like a hyped up grass hopper, cfx continues to move sideways in a range between $2.01 and $2.09 with the occaisional stratospheric leap to $2.11+. Growth opportunities (or the lack of them) seem to be the only thing holding cfx back from climbing into the premium to NTA area in a similar manner to some of the other bigger A-REIT's. Sellers taking their profit and getting out ahead of the collapse of Europe, the North Korean Nuclear war and the collapse of the U.S. economy (when they next hit their fiscal cliff) appear to be equally matched with buyers looking for returns better than bonds and bank rates.



Share: CFX
Date: 5-Apr-13
Closing Price $2.04
Issued Shares 2,828,495,659
Capital 5,770,131,144
Earnings $ 0.1148
ROE 5.63%
Dist $ 0.134
Yield % 6.57%
P/E 17.77
NTA $ 2.05
Discount to NTA 0.49%


Lots of volitility and lots of opportunity for the risk takers. As always, do your own research and good luck.
 
Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group


Tell me about it, a conundrum for holders.

gg
 
Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

Well GG you should be happier today. A sprint to new highs on the back of a 2% jump in the A-REIT sector. It will be interesting to see how far it goes and how long it lasts. The undercurrent in the economy appears to be that the share market it on the cusp of a period of bull market activity. However, I feel many of the A-REIT's will need to demonstrate the capacity for growth and improved yields to sustain higher share prices.



As always, do your own research and good luck.
 
Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group


Yes I was thinking of you nulla, when I looked at the end of day.

I very nearly sold my CFX about a week ago.

I think you are on the money and glad that it has broken above the range.

Time will tell.

gg
 
Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

It looks like a lot of cheap foriegn money is finding its' way into the A-REIT sector and CFX is no exception. New highs this week and the potential for more as the yields, even after compression, are better than banks interest rates.



A comparison of the fundamentals for the last three weeks suggests that CFX is capable of moving higher while maitaining a yield of 5% or better for the buy and holders. I'm happy to wait until a pattern stabilises before I jump in for any trades. As always do your own research and good luck .

Share: CFX CFX CFX
Date: 5-Apr-13 12-Apr-13 19-Apr-13
Closing Price 2.04 2.14 2.19
Issued Shares 2,828,495,659 2,828,495,659 2,828,495,659
Capital 5,770,131,144 6,052,980,710 6,194,405,493
Earnings $ 0.1148 0.1148 0.1148
ROE 5.63% 5.36% 5.24%
Dist $ 0.134 0.134 0.134
Yield % 6.57% 6.26% 6.12%
P/E 17.77 18.64 19.08
NTA $ 2.05 2.05 2.05
Discount to NTA 0.49% -4.39% -6.83%
 
Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

In the close on Friday 26/3/13 CFX managed to hold last weeks closing price of $2.19. There was some interesting action in the range between $2.19 and $2.24 through the week but the spread was a little tight for me to consider a trade. The possiblility of a retrace to levels closer to nta values after the recent climbs makes me a little risk adverse. Happy to wait until the price action regains some concistancy.



As always. do your own research and good luck.
 
Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

This week CFX continued to track sideways in the range $2.18 to $2.24. However the chase for yield by some local and overseas investors is being countered by the sell down of the Aud$ which has prompted some off-shore investors to take the profits. Fortunately some of the sell off has been matched by new investor buying in. Unfortunately though cfx did close on $2.19 for the week and we will have to wait for next week to see whether or not this level will hold as a support level or the share price fall lower.



As always, do your own research and good luck.
 
Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

Ouch! The A-REIT sector dropped yesterday by over 2% but CFX dropped by over 4%. Not sure whether this was a reweighting by the sophisticated and professional investors rejigging their portfolio's to cover their take up of the $400million SGP issue or whether their was something more onerous starting.



At anyrate I opted not to jump in at $2.18 and decided to see where this goes before jumping in. At this level the yield is still good. CFX is due to go exdiv in June with a payment in August, that could encourage investors back in to support the price.
 
Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group


Sentiment on the whole sector has changed dramatically this week and all REITs are well off their highs.

There's a round of capital raising going through (MGR, SGP, CMW) so definitely some caution out there. There's also the fact that price/NTA has probably gone a bit over the top for some of the REITs... Granted some of these names have have development profits, but some of the recent transactions were only done at or below book value.
 
Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

I suspect it is more likely an exodus of off-shore investors. It seems to be too large and broad to be just local fund managers lockking in profits and/or rejigging their portfolios.

Hard to see this as being a direct result of Ben Bernake talking about reducing quantative easing. But then again, half the recent volatility has been due to investors spooking on any suggestion that the QE would eventualy stop.
 
Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group


Probably the AUD fall as much as anything. 96c is a key level and we are going there with a fair bit of conviction.
 
Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

Seems the Aud$ falling to US$0.96 (and lower) has prompted a lot of off-shore investors to sell out their holdings. There was a large sell off in fridays closing auction that pushed the close down to $2.01 which was three cents ($0.03) lower than the lowest price before 4:00pm.



I held off entering until late Friday at $2.04, so I'm already three cents in the red. Bugger. I think the sell down of the dollar is hype by the likes of Soros and Goldman Sachs more than any real improvement of the US economy versus a failing in ours. However the market is the market and there is no guarantee our REIT's will rebound at the same rate they fell. A manual stop loss will be implemented if CFX keeps tracking south. The CFX yield is one of the higher ones so that should help support the price......maybe.

As always do your own research and good luck.
 
Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

The yield was not enough to slow the drop and I exited at $1.975. This was the first time since September 2009 that the CFX share price has fallen more than 3% after an entry causing me to exit on a stop loss (and incur losses on two parcels). Fortunately the volitility since the lows have provided ample opportunities (trading in a tight range) to recover the losses plus a bit more.



Like most A-REIT's CFX has bounced off the May/June lows. CFX looked like dipping again but received some support semingly related to the Dexus take-over offer for CPA. It appears that the market may be expecting the largest share holder in CFX to mount a full take-over but nothing has happened. The CFX directors are still evaluating the invitation for them to take of the management of themselves from CBA but are yet to reach a conclusion. In the meantime their latest report is good and suggest that although the future may be challenging it should still be rewarding for CFX holders. As always do your own research and goodluck.
 
Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

CFX bounced off the support level of $1.96 when the Aud$ seemed to stabilise and some confidence came back into the A-REIT sector. No doubt the relationship with CBA and CPA and the move for CFX and CPA to self manage themselves attracted market interest, particularly with Dexus making an offer for CPA. The CFX share price worked its way back up to $2.08 before it ran out of steam. No take-over offers for CFX and not a lot from the independant directors on the self manage idea and the share price has drifted back down.



While there has been support at $2.02, Fridays bounce to close at $2.04 isn't overly convincing. Friday was pretty much an up day across the market and the last two weeks price action suggest that there may be a pennant forming with the possibility of CFX testing the $2.02 for a break downwards (?). If it does push downwards the next support level is arround $1.96. CFX will go exdiv in December and there is some history of a price lift in the leadup to the exdiv date. Mind you there is also some history of the share price being pushed down before the exdiv date as well , hard call this one.

On a personal perspective if the price does push down to $1.96 and I have any spare cash, I will probably buy for a distribution and capital gain play. Mind you, the time frame for this tactic can be a bit stretched out. As always do your own research and good luck .
 
Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

It has been a while since anyone has posted about CFX. The self management option has been exercised by the board for CFX and the Commonwealth Bank has been paid a hefty fee to exit the picture. CFX did a small capital raising to cover the $400million plus costs and the share price jumped around a bit while the process was underway.



Once again in the last few weeks, CFX dipped to the lows of $1.87 (following a general downturn of the whole A-REIT Sector). However, as in the past, CFX found plenty of buy support and has now rallied to close out on Friday at $1.93. We accumulated five (5) parcels tracking down from $1.92 to $1.89 but had run out of funds when it tested $1.865. The lowest price parcel was let go on Friday at $1.93 for a 1.8% profit (after brokerage) for a seven day hold. If it retraces again we will aim for another entry around $1.91. In the absence of any Sunami's, outbreaks of war and a collapse of the Chinese Banking system I expect CFX to return to the high $1.90's, possibly even the low $2.00's, particularly in the lead up to the ex-div date for the next distribution.
 
Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group



A funny thing happened today. At roughly 10:20am our Cable Internet service dropped out, due to upgrade work being done in our area. In the time it took for me to change over to an ADSL service (which we were in the process of closing) CFX moved through the sell price of our second parcel at $1.955. I had intended to sell a third parcel at $1.965, then load further sells at $1.97 and $1.98 to close out the remaining trades.

By the time I managed to get reconnected with ADSL the share price had hit $1.975/$1.98 and by the time I started keying in the sell bids it was $1.98/$1.985. All three remaining trades went through at $1.98. Sure the price subsequently tested $1.995 but a trade is a trade is a trade.



The price rebound was much faster (and higher) than I expected. Maybe Tony Abbotts tour of Japan encouraged the Japanese to invest in A-REIT's? I wonder if the A-REIT's are going to emulate the surge of last April/May?
 
Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

CFX continued to climb of the recent lows hitting the low $2.00 range well ahead of my anticipated timeframes. After the share price tested $2.00 I was expecting a retrace below $1.96 for a re-entry however it didn't happen.



One thing worth noting for the future is the consistency of CFX rebounding to the high $1.90's/low $2.00's everytime it tests the support levels around $1.90 (+/- 3 cents). As always do your own research and good luck.
 
Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

CFX rebounded to the low $2.00's, then climbed for the div hunters to over $2.10 then dropped after going ex-div. Although most of the other A-REIT's have performed better since going Ex-div, CFX has been slow to recover further, possibly due to the drop off in retail and consumer confidence post budget.



Finding a lot of support at the $2.03 - $2.04 level for the fast two weeks, CFX appears to be struggling to get back above $2.05 - $2.06. Volumes of turnover have been good and it occurs to me (after the change of substantial holding otice from Uni-Super) that some of the bigger investment funds may be holding the price down while they accumulate? The MACD chart shows CFX is closing the gap from recent prices to the moving average (converging) mainly due to the moving average drifting back to the recent price action levels. The Relative Strength chart indicated CFX is in oversold territory. Personally I'm expecting a rebound the $2.08 - $2.09 plus levels, but I'm probably biased as I hold. As always do your own research and good luck.
 
Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

It could also be that with Scentre Group now on the boards, there is a true comparable for CFX which investors see as greater value (lower premium to NTA, etc). I suspect there has been some switching between the two this week.
 
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