Dona Ferentes
Pengurus pengatur
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It should go higher but price action on NVDA can surprise. It is up 1.65% in after hours trade and $1 or so off all time highs. It will be interesting to see how it moves in RTH opening in just under 4 and a half hours.This doesn’t seem to have an end.
With the growth of AI, robotics, EVs, space exploration and rockets, demand appears to be on a long term trajectory.
Unless another tech company has something different and better.
It should go higher but price action on NVDA can surprise. It is up 1.65% in after hours trade and $1 or so off all time highs. It will be interesting to see how it moves in RTH opening in just under 4 and a half hours.
It is back over the 50 MA and brokers are increasing their price targets.
Presently $151.90.
gg
NVDA and the entire semi sector are being smoked in the pre-open session tonight. News that China's Deepseek AI doesn't need expensive chips and that it can do a similar job to MSFT's ChatGPT. While mostly a rumour, the sector and other related sectors (power/ uranium) are being sold off relentlessly. Nasdaq now down -4%. SMH -9%, the triple ETFs are down huge.
NVDA now <123 (-14%). SOXL, my fav semi ETF down -20% ! From a dip to a bear market dive, before the open. Will the buyers appear?
We were waiting for a curve-ball from Pres Trump but China threw one first. Game on and plenty of volatility for the traders.
DeepSeek Has Introduced Advanced Reasoning To The Open-Source Community |
Known for its v3 frontier model, China-based AI lab DeepSeek introduced its first reasoning model, R-1 last week. Much like OpenAI’s o series, R-1 leverages chain-of-thought reasoning to tackle complex logic and math challenges and generate more accurate and coherent answers than conventional large language models. Benchmarks indicate that the open-source R-1 model not only rivals OpenAI’s closed-source o1 model but also surpasses other contenders in the market. In a detailed paper,1 DeepSeek revealed how a version of R-1, dubbed R-1 Zero, evolved from a “pure reinforcement learning” training regimen. With DeepSeek v3 as the base, engineers challenged the model to solve advanced logic and math problems, leading to the development of “emergent” reasoning without massive amounts of human-labeled chain-of-thought data. The approach pays homage to AlphaGo Zero with self-directed learning and is the first time this training method has been applied successfully to language models in a detailed publication. The open-sourced version of R-1 includes additional training steps on top of R-1 Zero’s pure reinforcement learning approach to improve interpretability of its thinking patterns and ensure alignment with user preferences and safety guidelines. DeepSeek also showcased R-1’s versatility as a “trainer model” that can enhance the performance of smaller models, including Llama, through “distillation.” By transferring knowledge and refined reasoning to models with fewer parameters, R-1 underscores the potential for advanced AI to enhance reasoning in a broader range of models. Two months after OpenAI released the full version of o1, R1 exemplifies DeepSeek’s iterative ability, propelled perhaps by Chinese government support. R1’s accelerated timeline also highlights the intensity of the global AI race after the Biden Administration’s eleventh-hour crackdown on AI exports2 and the Trump Administration’s announcement of Stargate3—a $500 billion US AI infrastructure initiative led by OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Oracle’s Larry Ellison, and Softbank’s Masayoshi Son. |
well the game-changer for me was the accelerated roll-out of thorium power plants in China , that is an awful lot of power , and reduces uranium needsNVDA and the entire semi sector are being smoked in the pre-open session tonight. News that China's Deepseek AI doesn't need expensive chips and that it can do a similar job to MSFT's ChatGPT. While mostly a rumour, the sector and other related sectors (power/ uranium) are being sold off relentlessly. Nasdaq now down -4%. SMH -9%, the triple ETFs are down huge.
NVDA now <123 (-14%). SOXL, my fav semi ETF down -20% ! From a dip to a bear market dive, before the open. Will the buyers appear?
We were waiting for a curve-ball from Pres Trump but China threw one first. Game on and plenty of volatility for the traders.
I said it months ago that China doesn't need fancy high grade chips, the US blocking them was a fantasy that it would slow China down. You have an educated country now, with billions of people working at a much cheaper hourly rate than all Western economies with little to no workplace restrictions. They're the experts in working with cheaper materials, they engineer items so that they do the same job as their more expensive counterparts, I've been watching them do it for years. Technology is moving so fast that things don't need to last for a long time anymore, the throwaway items suit this environment.
Why DeepSeek won’t sink US AI titans
Panic fueling the selloff of Nvidia, Broadcom and other tech giants is overblown.
Necessity might be the mother of all invention, but sparking the mother of all selloffs seemed like a stretch. That wasn’t the case Monday morning, though, as U.S. markets opened to fresh fears about DeepSeek. The Chinese artificial-intelligence startup announced a significant breakthrough late last week with AI models that perform nearly on par with advanced U.S.-born technology. The rub is that DeepSeek claims to have trained one of its latest models for US$5.6 million (AU$8.8m) in computing costs—a fraction of what is currently spent on this side of the Pacific on the same activity. OpenAI’s GPT-4 model that was launched in late 2023 cost more than $100 million to train, according to Chief Executive Sam Altman. In a podcast last year, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said the cost to train some models is approaching $1 billion.
Such blowout costs have been great news for companies such as Nvidia (NVDA, -16.86%), Broadcom (AVGO, -17.40%), and Marvell, which have seen their market values surge due to the explosive demand for AI chips and services. The high entry price of AI—and U.S. government sanctions limiting the sale of advanced AI chips to Chinese companies—also serve as a competitive moat for tech titans like Microsoft (MSFT, -2.14%), Amazon (AMZN, +0.30%), Google, and Meta Platforms (META, +1.91%). These are among the few companies with enough capital to build expensive AI networks at scale.
DeepSeek’s breakthrough, however, signals bad news for nearly every company with a market capitalization exceeding $1 trillion. Nvidia and Broadcom shares plunged more than 14% by Monday afternoon, leading a chip-sector selloff that erased over 8% from the PHLX Semiconductor Index. Microsoft and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL, -4.17%), both leaders in AI-based cloud-computing services, saw their shares drop about 3% in morning trading. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 3%, contrasting with a slight gain in the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average.
The selloff seems excessive. Much remains unknown about DeepSeek’s claims, including what sorts of chips the company had access to despite the effect of sanctions. Several chip analysts on Monday disputed the notion that DeepSeek built something on par with advanced U.S.-based AI models at such a low cost. “DeepSeek DID NOT ‘build OpenAI for $5 million,’ ” wrote Stacy Rasgon of Bernstein. “The ‘DeepSeek’ moment is driving investors to shoot first and ask questions later,” wrote Joshua Buchalter of TD Cowen. “While DeepSeek’s achievement could be groundbreaking, we question the notion that its feats were done without the use of advanced GPUs to fine tune it,” wrote Atif Malik of Citigroup.
More important, such a technical breakthrough is unlikely to cool the AI race or even cut down the funds being poured into it. Addressing the comparison of DeepSeek to Sputnik, Edward Yang of Oppenheimer said the Space Race didn’t result in less money going out the door. “Increased competition rarely reduces aggregate spending,” he wrote in a note to clients. Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research noted that more advanced “frontier models” will still need to push the technical edge and use the most advanced computing resources, while smaller “lagging edge” models will push to develop more cost-efficient AI features.
“DeepSeek is not a game changer, and on the contrary fits very well with the way we have seen the industry evolving in the last three years,” Ferragu wrote.
Indeed, DeepSeek’s breakthrough comes just as AI spending appears to be getting another leg up. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced plans on Friday to boost capital spending yet again to as much as $65 billion this year alone. That came on the heels of the Stargate Project involving OpenAI, SoftBank and Oracle that aims to spend as much as $500 billion on AI infrastructure.
Microsoft, which reports quarterly results on Wednesday, will be the first big tech company with the opportunity to signal whether DeepSeek’s breakthrough will deep-six its investment plans. The company is expected to drop about $84 billion in capital spending for the fiscal year ending in June and $94 billion in the next year, according to consensus estimates from Visible Alpha. So far, the company certainly isn’t signaling a plan to pull back on its ambitions.
“As AI gets more efficient and accessible, we will see its use skyrocket, turning it into a commodity we just can’t get enough of,” wrote Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella in a post on X on Monday morning.
The AI spending war might just be entering a new phase.
The Wall Street Journal
i don't know about 'fancy 'I said it months ago that China doesn't need fancy high grade chips, the US blocking them was a fantasy that it would slow China down. You have an educated country now, with billions of people working at a much cheaper hourly rate than all Western economies with little to no workplace restrictions. They're the experts in working with cheaper materials, they engineer items so that they do the same job as their more expensive counterparts, I've been watching them do it for years. Technology is moving so fast that things don't need to last for a long time anymore, the throwaway items suit this environment.
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