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NVDA - NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ)

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Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut

Ross Island Hotel
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This little monster still powers ahead.

A chip for gamers kept them fed and keked.

And then along came AI. I was lucky to hop on at $390 or so and since then it has been, with just a few hiccups plain sailing.

When will the music stop. Probably never.
(he hopes)

gg
 
verce said:
This is one of those companies that I would hold forever. I can’t really see any downside.
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Just before and after each earnings and performance notification thousands of analysts have this very dilemma. will it go on multi year, can they keep the performance up, where are the competitors, will geopolitical events change the need and supply for chips, will Sleepy Joe antagonise the Chinese further, what is their break point, when do they start stealing, etc. etc.

The announcement comes, beyond expectation and ... the price falls. the analysts reassess and then the price picks up and continues north.

Early on in the mid $400's I jumped out and bought in lower, then sold again and had to buy in higher for an even result, so now I just hold. I believe if they announce a decent divie or a stock split the price may hike further than its present trajectory.

Being realistic though a competitor will appear at some stage, although there is room for further competition and at one stage Nvidia actually had problems keeping up with supply.

Others say that AI is a crock of poop. I don't think so.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
Just before and after each earnings and performance notification thousands of analysts have this very dilemma. will it go on multi year, can they keep the performance up, where are the competitors, will geopolitical events change the need and supply for chips, will Sleepy Joe antagonise the Chinese further, what is their break point, when do they start stealing, etc. etc.

The announcement comes, beyond expectation and ... the price falls. the analysts reassess and then the price picks up and continues north.

Early on in the mid $400's I jumped out and bought in lower, then sold again and had to buy in higher for an even result, so now I just hold. I believe if they announce a decent divie or a stock split the price may hike further than its present trajectory.

Being realistic though a competitor will appear at some stage, although there is room for further competition and at one stage Nvidia actually had problems keeping up with supply.

Others say that AI is a crock of poop. I don't think so.

gg
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I would think the main advantage of the smallest, high-speed, and lightest chips would be for war, it wouldn't matter on your average washing machine or electric lawn mower. We all know how the US feels about war and geopolitics.
 
TimeISmoney said:
I would think the main advantage of the smallest, high-speed, and lightest chips would be for war, it wouldn't matter on your average washing machine or electric lawn mower. We all know how the US feels about war and geopolitics.
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interesting you say that, I was listening to a podcast this morning about what would stimulate the Chinese economy. War of course one.

The USA are keeping their their manufacturing technology close to home and not allowing export of the latest chips such as Nvidia's to China.

gg
 
Heading in to the close in New York where NVidia's course upward has been tempered. A strong reading on CPI so the Feds target for inflation looking tougher to achieve. Rate cuts disappearing out in to the future. NVDA announcements next week and options market is crazy.

Nobody knows whether the price will fall, temper or run higher to this time next week. Exciting times.

Presently $732.60 with a high of $744.02 and low of $725.04

gg
 
I'm wondering how big these companies can get. US GDP is 27 trillion. It is unlikely to increase significantly in the near future.

Historically total stock market cap is 1:1 with GDP. US market cap is $50 tril.

Big tech companies like MSFT are already worth 3 TRILLION. Whereas elite "role player" tech companies like Nvidia are already exceeding 1 Trillion. To make a 10 bagger on these companies it would mean either normal salaries going up into the millions in the next years. Or these tech companies becoming so unbelievably big that a few of them ones would exceed the entire economy of the US.

Either way this sounds like the prelude to 1984 with some ultra-big companies being bigger than even large developed nations.
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
This little monster still powers ahead..

When will the music stop. Probably never.

gg
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Quarterly figures from Nvidia on Wednesday (early Thursday morning, Sydney time) will be the dominant report of the season. Commentators anticipate they will have a greater impact than Walmart the day before and on previous reporters from the Magnificent Seven stocks like Meta, Apple, Amazon, Tesla, and Alphabet.

Earnings forecasts for Nvidia are huge: analysts expect Nvidia's revenue could more than triple from the same period a year ago amid a surge in demand for its expensive ($US10,000 a pop) artificial intelligence chips.

Investors will likely be looking for growth in the chipmaker's data center segment, which boosted Nvidia's earnings in the September quarter.

Analysts are also looking for Nvidia to provide more details on its reported plans to launch a new custom chip unit, which would be positive.

Net income is expected to be $US10.4 billion, up from $US1.41 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter of 2023, while earnings per share forecasts are around $US4.18, compared to 57 US cents in December 2022.

The question is how much of this is already in the price – the shares are up nearly 51% year to date in 2024, so the huge gain could already be factored in.

If the figures are better, watch tech share prices surge for a while, though ahead of the release of the data, they certainly slowed last week. Nvidia shares could only manage a rise of a very slim 0.03% over the five sessions to Friday’s close, and the wider market eased for the first time since the start of the year.
 
On Tuesday, AI darling Nvidia (NVDA:US) came close to surpassing Alphabet (GOOGL:US) as the third most valuable company on Wall Street, marking a significant milestone for the leading AI chipmaker. With Nvidia's market capitalization exceeding Amazon's (AMZN:US) for the first time in twenty years, totaling $1.78 trillion after a slight 0.17% slip in its shares, it emerged as a formidable contender. Amazon's market value stood at $1.75 trillion following a 2.15% decline in its stock.

Meanwhile, Alphabet, the parent company of Google was down 1.62%, leaving its market capitalization at $1.81 trillion. This development underscores the evolving dynamics within the tech industry's landscape.

Nvidia has emerged as a prominent beneficiary of the tech industry's fervent pursuit to integrate AI into their offerings, with its graphics processors facing scarcity due to hefty purchases by Meta Platforms (META:US) and other major tech players, amounting to billions of dollars.

Mizuho revised Nvidia’s target price upwards to $825 from $625 in anticipation of the company's upcoming quarterly results scheduled for Feb. 21. Despite closing Tuesday at $721.28, Mizuho's analyst Vijay Rakesh highlighted a surge in demand for Nvidia's top-tier H100 processor, though supply still falls significantly short.

With Nvidia maintaining a dominant position, controlling approximately 80% of the high-end AI chip market, its stock has surged by 46% this year, following a remarkable triple-digit growth in 2023. This optimistic outlook extends to other tech firms like Microsoft (MSFT:US) and Meta, whose shares have soared to record highs fueled by AI prospects.

Alphabet, on the other hand, integrated chatbot technology into its Google search engine and marketed generative AI tools to cloud customers. Despite hitting an all-time high, Alphabet's stock faced a setback post its Jan. 30 quarterly report, falling short of investors' expectations. Nevertheless, its stock has managed a 4% increase in 2024.

Although Nvidia briefly surpassed Amazon in market capitalization on Monday, Amazon regained its lead by the end of the trading session. The last time Nvidia held a higher valuation than Amazon was in 2002, when both were valued at less than $6 billion. By mid-2004, Nvidia's market value had plummeted to under $2 billion, while Alphabet debuted its shares with a valuation of $23 billion.

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Indeed @Dona Ferentes

Is it a bear trap or tears time for the bulls on NVDA.

Sentiment would indicate the bulls have it, then sentiment often loses out.

What interesting times in which to live. I may throw some more kopeks on the bull tonight.

Then again ... lol.

gg
 
DRUM ROLL​

Investors in Nvidia are cheering as the stock soars in extended trading on Wall Street after the chipmaker and artificial intelligence darling smashed revenue expectations in its latest earnings report.

Having fallen 2.9 per cent during the regular trading day, the Nasdaq-listed stock surged 10 per cent to $US741.71 within 30 minutes of its results being released – the reversal amounts to a $US250 billion swing in market value in less than an hour. Shares in the chipmaker have already more than tripled in the last 12 months.

The company reported fourth quarter revenue of $US22.1 billion – up 22 per cent from the previous quarter and a massive 265 per cent from a year ago. It also said that revenue in the current period would be about $24 billion, topping analysts average estimate of $21.9 billion on average.

“Accelerated computing and generative AI have hit the tipping point. Demand is surging worldwide across companies, industries and nations,” Nvidia chief executive officer Jensen Huang said in a statement
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
This little monster still powers ahead.

AI
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- JPMorgan today raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $850 up from $650 while maintaining its Buy rating
- Bank of America raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $925 up from $800 while maintaining its Buy rating
- Goldman Sachs raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $875 up from $800 while maintaining its Buy rating
- Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $795 up from $750 while maintaining its Overweight rating
- Citi raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $820 up from $575 while maintaining its Buy rating
- Keybanc raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $1,100 up from $740 while maintaining its Overweight rating
- Mizuho raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $850 up from $825 while maintaining its Buy rating
- Truist raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $911 up from $691 while maintaining its Buy rating
- Stifel raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $910 up from $865 while maintaining its Buy rating
- Wedbush raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $850 up from $800 while maintaining its Outperform rating
-UBS lowered its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $800 up from $850 while maintaining its Buy rating
- Deutsche Bank raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $720 up from $560 while maintaining its Hold rating
- TD Cowen raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $900 up from $700 while maintaining its Outperform rating
- Benchmark raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $1,000 up from $625 while maintaining its Buy rating
- HSBC raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $880 up from $835 while maintaining its Buy rating
- Wolfe raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $900 up from $630 while maintaining its Outperform rating
- Bernstein raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $1,000 up from $700 while maintaining its Outperform rating
 
joeno said:
I'm wondering how big these companies can get. US GDP is 27 trillion. It is unlikely to increase significantly in the near future.

Historically total stock market cap is 1:1 with GDP. US market cap is $50 tril.

Big tech companies like MSFT are already worth 3 TRILLION. Whereas elite "role player" tech companies like Nvidia are already exceeding 1 Trillion. To make a 10 bagger on these companies it would mean either normal salaries going up into the millions in the next years. Or these tech companies becoming so unbelievably big that a few of them ones would exceed the entire economy of the US.

Either way this sounds like the prelude to 1984 with some ultra-big companies being bigger than even large developed nations.
Click to expand...
since US GDP includes Government spending it can be anything within or beyond imagination , all the Government has to do is print/sell more Treasuries

for company stock prices to rise all that has to happen is folks pay more for those stocks , maybe that is because the company buys back those stocks ( shrinking the pool available ) or because there is a frenzy about future earnings/price rises
 
with a full day's trading under its belt, Nvidia surged as high as $US823. 94 within minutes of opening, before it reversed direction, finishing with a modest 0.4 per cent rise to $US788.17, giving it a market valuation of $US1.97 trillion.
 
Dona Ferentes said:
- JPMorgan today raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $850 up from $650 while maintaining its Buy rating
- Bank of America raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $925 up from $800 while maintaining its Buy rating
- Goldman Sachs raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $875 up from $800 while maintaining its Buy rating
- Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $795 up from $750 while maintaining its Overweight rating
- Citi raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $820 up from $575 while maintaining its Buy rating
- Keybanc raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $1,100 up from $740 while maintaining its Overweight rating
- Mizuho raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $850 up from $825 while maintaining its Buy rating
- Truist raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $911 up from $691 while maintaining its Buy rating
- Stifel raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $910 up from $865 while maintaining its Buy rating
- Wedbush raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $850 up from $800 while maintaining its Outperform rating
-UBS lowered its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $800 up from $850 while maintaining its Buy rating
- Deutsche Bank raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $720 up from $560 while maintaining its Hold rating
- TD Cowen raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $900 up from $700 while maintaining its Outperform rating
- Benchmark raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $1,000 up from $625 while maintaining its Buy rating
- HSBC raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $880 up from $835 while maintaining its Buy rating
- Wolfe raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $900 up from $630 while maintaining its Outperform rating
- Bernstein raised its price target on Nvidia $NVDA to $1,000 up from $700 while maintaining its Outperform rating
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Price targets have always impressed me as the ultimate woo woo of the financial world. How do these people keep a straight face when deciding to publish their target?

As luck would have it NVDA has surpassed most of them just over 100 minutes in to trading and presently sits at $853.55, so I guess they have earned their fees and will have to go about finding some new targets.

The earnings not to mention the projected earnings are eye watering for this company. Other chip makers are racing to catch up as the newer H chips are just about ready to be rolled out. Demand is exponential and there is talk of NVDA being unable to keep up. The US economy seems to have avoided a bullet and the citizenry have finally realised that any old idiot can rule without interrupting commerce.

What a great country is the USA.

Now where did I leave that dart?

gg
 
mullokintyre said:
An interesting chart below, comparing the once mighty darling CISCO to NVDA.

View attachment 172266
NVDA is overpriced and over hyped.
If you have not made your fortune on it by now, its too late.
Mick
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Memento retrorsi ... Marcus Garpalus Aurelius.

It is difficult, but thanks Mick, @mullokintyre . I will be minded of Cisco. A punter should not attribute a stock's ballistic progression to any skill on the punter's part. Hanging on like a cowboy at an orgy atm.

gg
 
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