NST - Northern Star Resources

[mullokintyre]

They're spending too much on development capital to interest me at the moment. And it will be similar in fy23. They've withdrawn guidance as to capital expenditure in fy24. In fact they have a capital hungry 5 year growth plan going out to and including fy26. Throw in high ASIC, inflationary environment, Covid, and exploration $120-125Mn annually, Fed profit tax, State royalty. WTF? What are we pulling it out of the ground for - to plough most of it back in? They're still hedging. I am unenamoured of fy26, I want a slice of the fat AUD gold price pie now.

Held

perhaps you just need to take a shorter time frame.
At least NST pays a divvy.
I am happy to buy anywhere below 6.70, and then look to take my profits around the 7.45 mark (or higher).
Mick

 

[finicky]

@mullokintyre is 6.70 or so your valuation on fundamentals? I can't see any significance for that price on a chart? I was hideously wrong in a prior charting post with the opinion that the monthly chart was cause for optimism; in the outcome it marked a peak. There's a big head and shoulders above $9.

 

[eskys]

Price of gold was static last night but our dollar is a bit stronger against the greenback. If this holds and the US market performs tonight, we'll have a fighting chance. At the moment, looks like investors have been singed and don't even want to think about it (rightly so) I have no idea where it's going, looks like equal numbers want it, and same want out.

I'm watching the dollar (fe down last night, but because our dollar a bit stronger, fe miners doing ok today) Gotta watch it, never know which way it'll go)

 

[divs4ever]

They're spending too much on development capital to interest me at the moment. And it will be similar in fy23. They've withdrawn guidance as to capital expenditure in fy24. In fact they have a capital hungry 5 year growth plan going out to and including fy26. Throw in high ASIC, inflationary environment, Covid, and exploration $120-125Mn annually, Fed profit tax, State royalty. WTF? What are we pulling it out of the ground for - to plough most of it back in? They're still hedging. I am unenamoured of fy26, I want a slice of the fat AUD gold price pie now.

Held

yes i am hesitant of adding more ( NST ) currently

am preferring other gold miners currently ( BUT CAREFULLY as i expect cost blow-outs across the industry )

one to watch might be SXE ( i hold ) to see if they get more work converting mine power plants

 

[mullokintyre]

@mullokintyre is 6.70 or so your valuation on fundamentals? I can't see any significance for that price on a chart? I was hideously wrong in a prior charting post with the opinion that the monthly chart was cause for optimism; in the outcome it marked a peak. There's a big head and shoulders above $9.

Howdy F, I really don't do charting. its a science that I have little faith in my ability to undertake.
6.70 is a level I am comfortable with, and I look to make 10 to 15% on my trades.
Nothing terribly scientific about it, but it works out enough times to let me sleep easily.
Mick

 

[finicky]

Dow up well over a thousand, USD gold up strongly - should be a good market generally today.
Just passing on that Greg Canavan of fat tail research whom I like seems close to recommending NST as a buy in his latest vid. His approach is not to bottom pick but wait for a positive trend to be reasonably established. He views NST as the highest quality gold producer listed on the ASX due to its long life quality assets and good management. Bit skeprical of all that - higher quality than PRU or SSR? And management - founders Beament and Finlayson jumped ship when the company was on a high, taking sackfuls of equity with them and leaving unproven successors to deal with production problems that emerged.

Held and Holding
Won't be buying more NST

Daily (with 50,100 dmas)

 

[Trader X]

Just passing on that Greg Canavan of fat tail research whom I like seems close to recommending NST as a buy in his latest vid. His approach is not to bottom pick but wait for a positive trend to be reasonably established.

Bit skeptical also, mining operational costs have risen significantly across the board. If the next activities report reflects this and revises guidance downward, expect share price weakness in spite of a rising gold price.

 

[rcw1]

Good morning
Northern Star Resources Limited (NST) will release its quarterly report for the period ended 31 December 2022 pre-open on the ASX platform on Thursday, 19 January 2023. Nice.
NST has 10% ownership of PXX.
NST 52 week high today (11/01/23).

Holding
Kindly conduct your own due diligence.
Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[finicky]

fwiw G Canavan at f'tail advisory is still neutral. His view pretty much mine is except with more conviction and thought on his side. I am mostly set for long term in gold stocks and don't care about an anticipated pullback although I would look again at EVN and SLR at a lower price (don't hold either). I admit it is risky to hold off buying for anyone wanting a position in gold stocks.
Greg has a previous recco with a current hold sentiment for NST.
An excerpt from yesterday's advisory:

"Gold and gold stocks continue to rally
Does this sound familiar?
You wait for a correction, and it never comes. Then you lose patience, buy-in, and the correction comes…
My feeling is that this is what’s going to happen to a lot of people chasing the gold stock rally.
For now, though, I’m the one that has this wrong in the short term, at least. I thought a correction would have unfolded by now. But the rally just keeps going.
As you can see below, the Aussie Gold Index started the year strongly, surging through resistance (chart)

But it’s also back into overbought territory (shows daily chart RSI at overbought level), meaning it is stretched in the short term.
This is where chasing rallies can be dangerous.
So I’d continue to recommend patience here.
I’m confident you’ll get a chance to add gold exposure at better prices in the weeks/months ahead."

Held

 

[Sean K]

fwiw G Canavan at f'tail advisory is still neutral. His view pretty much mine is except with more conviction and thought on his side. I am mostly set for long term in gold stocks and don't care about an anticipated pullback although I would look again at EVN and SLR at a lower price (don't hold either). I admit it is risky to hold off buying for anyone wanting a position in gold stocks.
Greg has a previous recco with a current hold sentiment for NST.
An excerpt from yesterday's advisory:

"Gold and gold stocks continue to rally
Does this sound familiar?
You wait for a correction, and it never comes. Then you lose patience, buy-in, and the correction comes…
My feeling is that this is what’s going to happen to a lot of people chasing the gold stock rally.
For now, though, I’m the one that has this wrong in the short term, at least. I thought a correction would have unfolded by now. But the rally just keeps going.
As you can see below, the Aussie Gold Index started the year strongly, surging through resistance (chart)

But it’s also back into overbought territory (shows daily chart RSI at overbought level), meaning it is stretched in the short term.
This is where chasing rallies can be dangerous.
So I’d continue to recommend patience here.
I’m confident you’ll get a chance to add gold exposure at better prices in the weeks/months ahead."

Held

Agree with everything here. Reminds me why being a bit contrarian as a longer term investor can be of benefit. Buy when things are in the dog house and skim profits when they're frothy. Also shows the benefit of holding core investments in longer term conviction stocks/sectors that are just going through a cycle with the most probable future outcome being up. You can never precisely pick absolute bottoms or tops, but if you're longer term, you don't need to. Some high profile TAs still picking a significant pullback on gold, which I will be happy with in order to add for what might be a significant run from this 2.5 year consolidation period.

 

[rcw1]

Good morning
Northern Star Resources Limited (NST) will release its quarterly report for the period ended 31 December 2022 pre-open on the ASX platform on Thursday, 19 January 2023. Nice.
NST has 10% ownership of PXX.
NST 52 week high today (11/01/23).

Holding
Kindly conduct your own due diligence.
Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1


View attachment 151528

Good evening
Have been accumulating NST. Another 52-week high today. Wanted the SP to crack on through that $12 which it did, then every chance was going to gain momentum and explode north, post $12.10, but did the complete opposite and fizzled out. ha ha ha ha. Watched this one like a hawk today.
Holding



NST 1 minute chart for today 12/01/23;

 

[divs4ever]

Good evening
Have been accumulating NST. Another 52-week high today. Wanted the SP to crack on through that $12 which it did, then every chance was going to gain momentum and explode north, post $12.10, but did the complete opposite and fizzled out. ha ha ha ha. Watched this one like a hawk today.
Holding



NST 1 minute chart for today 12/01/23;
View attachment 151599

i hold some NST , but have been ( carefully ) accumulating EVN , instead ,
i wonder if NST had expanded so much costs will be a problem , giving me a chance to buy ( extra ) later , while EVN focused more in reducing costs , which isn't so sexy for investors , giving reasonable top-up prices , in the past year

good luck

 

[rcw1]

i hold some NST , but have been ( carefully ) accumulating EVN , instead ,
i wonder if NST had expanded so much costs will be a problem , giving me a chance to buy ( extra ) later , while EVN focused more in reducing costs , which isn't so sexy for investors , giving reasonable top-up prices , in the past year

good luck

Good morning divs4ever,
Maybe... not sure.
Read an interesting article about EVN and its 'Terminal Value'. I'll find it and upload onto the EVN thread. You may well have already read it.
rcw1 has recently traded EVN. Good fortune divs4ever.

Have a good day today.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Trader X]

It's likely that a strong push through $1900 USD for gold will float all or most boats in the gold mining sector. NCM and EVN do seem better prospects than NST at this point in time for upside potential based on fundamentals.

 

[rcw1]

Good morning

Some good Modus Operandi in the mix here, generally anyways... There was a generalised pattern, last five days said it all, for mine. Not quite a vertical trend but some huffing and puffing along the road into the right direction. Got what rcw1 wanted yesterday and sold 75% of NST holding.

The comparative gold stocks 3 monthly gain graph/chart, lastly represented, clearly reveals some good 3 monthly gain for EVN and DEG as well.

Some Gold stocks growth 3 monthly to close 16/01/23:

 

[rcw1]

Good morning
NST 1/4erly December 2022 published this morning (19/01/23) - getting head around it...

 

[Trader X]

NST 1/4erly December 2022 published this morning (19/01/23) - getting head around it...

Interesting market reaction, NST initially down sharply now up 1%. Analysts seem to be reacting favorably to the quarterly update with the Gold spot price trying to stay above the $1900 USD level.

 

[rcw1]

Good morning

Some water has flowed under the bridge since last posted within this tread. Sold the remaining 25% holding on the rise post $12.75 into $13 quadrant / barrier and thought long and hard about going back in on Friday. But... awaiting the NST financial scorecard, today. Not one to roll the dice uncessarilarly ... ha ha ha


Net profit fell 83 per cent to $47.7m. The group reported cash earnings of $467m, up 3 per cent on the prior corresponding period, after selling 773,000 ounces of gold at an average all-in sustaining cost of $1766/ounce.

Underlying earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortisation was $633m, down 12 per cent, as cost challenges offset higher gold prices. NST will pay an 11c per share dividend on March 29.

Revenue of $1.9bn was up 5 per cent from the prior half year, primarily due to higher average gold price realised of $2513 per ounce, compared to $2388 per ounce previously. The volume of gold sold was consistent period-on-period at 773,243 ounces compared with 778,815 ounces for the period ended 31 December 2021.

Managing director Stuart Tonkin commented, a continued focus in the second half was on costs across all three operating centres, alongside the expected lift in production to meet its reaffirmed FY23 guidance.

Not holding
Have a very nice day today.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Sean K]

This chart probably looks like a lot of the stocks on the GDX. Correcting appropriately after gold ran too hard too fast. I'm not sure if this support line has any hope of holding.

 

[Sean K]

They're making a motza but the AISC still looks a little high. I blame the unions.

And, they need another major asset to take them to the next level. They have the cash and experience to take DEG into production and turn them into a top 5 producer if they had the guts. Need to replace NCM as Australia's biggest goldie.