Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

NST - Northern Star Resources

It’s been a tough 12 mths for gold bugs, but we will have our day.

Speak for yourself :D

I hold the underlying as a portfolio diversifier and extra-financial asset, sleeping like a baby

Screenshot_2022-01-27_19-21-27.png
 
I don't really "get" gold miners as an investment, it's a hard and capital intensive business with low ROE and they are selling the thing you want (gold) for the the thing you are trying to get rid of (money).
 
I don't really "get" gold miners as an investment, it's a hard and capital intensive business with low ROE and they are selling the thing you want (gold) for the the thing you are trying to get rid of (money).

Most of us are investing in stocks listed on the ASX, Mr Boy. What are you actually investing in?
 
Most of us are investing in stocks listed on the ASX, Mr Boy. What are you actually investing in?

I buy stocks too! Like I said, the gold is a diversifier ;)

I mostly invest at the index and factor level but I do hold one single stock right now, NASDAQ:VIRT.
 
It’s been a tough 12 mths for gold bugs, but we will have our day.
???
AIS two buys ( 15 cents and 13.5 cents ) more of a copper play but bought a working gold mine

EVN @ $3.72

GOR @ $1.25

WGX @ $1.90

NST two buys $8.65 , $9.75

RRL four buys $1.73 , $1.99, $2.03 , $2.44

RMS two buys $1.48 , $1.63

in the last 12 months

i have been having a great time , now the PAY-DAY might be a way down the track but i would rather these than Treasury Bonds currently
 
i have gold as well , just not in bullion form

the 'money' i get rid of to pay bills ( so i can keep the gold for absolute emergencies )
 
Getting Back to what this particular thread is about, NST had a steady quarter based on figures just out.
Generating lots of cash, however they need the gold price in AUD to keep edging higher as the AISC for most of them edges higher at the same time.
POGO still a bit of a downer, high costs, they had better hope the 1.mtpa mill expansion goes smoothly.
Nice divvy of 10CPS, plenty of cash generated, with increasing production forecast over next three years.
Worth holding.
Mick
 
10 February 2022
FINANCIAL RESULTS
HALF YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2021

Strong financial position and growth path validate benefits from Saracen merger
▪ Reported net profit after tax (NPAT) of A$261 million (up 43%) driven by higher production and
portfolio optimisation. Underlying NPAT of A$108 million, excluding significant items of A$153 million.
▪ Underlying EBITDA of A$699 million, up 47% from pcp. Group Underlying EBITDA margin of 39%.
▪ Cash earnings1
of A$430 million.
▪ Cash and bullion of A$588 million. Net cash2
of A$288 million.
▪ Board declares fully franked interim dividend of 10 cents per share, up 5% from pcp.
▪ Key growth projects progressing in line with strategy to become a 2Mozpa producer by FY26, including
KCGM open pit development (Kalgoorlie) and Thunderbox mill expansion (Yandal).
Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST) (Northern Star) is pleased to report its financial results for the half year ended 31
December 2021.
Commenting on the results, Northern Star Resources Managing Director Stuart Tonkin said:
“These results cover the first full reporting period since our merger with Saracen in February 2021 and demonstrate the
potential that exists within Northern Star as we work towards our strategy to become a 2Mozpa gold producer by FY26. This
production growth, alongside a declining cost base, will be delivered organically and with one of the lowest capital intensities in
the industry.
“We delivered strong half year cash earnings1 of A$430 million and invested in our growth initiatives. The Board declared a fully
franked interim dividend of 10 cents per share, a return to shareholders of 27% of cash earnings. This return is consistent with
our capital management framework while having regard to the need of maintaining a strong balance sheet and the ability to
pursue value-adding investment opportunities.
“We remain on track to meet our FY22 production guidance, which incorporates current WA border restrictions and the
associated labour and cost impacts. During this period of continued market volatility, we are focused on operational delivery
and proactively protecting the health, safety and wellbeing of our people and those in the communities in which we operate.”
Financial result overview:
Revenue of A$1,807 million was up 63% from the prior half year, primarily due to higher gold volumes, with gold sales 289,786
ounces higher. The average realised gold price was consistent across both periods.
Cost of sales were higher than the comparative period. Generally, the increase arose from a combination of increased activity
with the inclusion of the Saracen Minerals Holdings’ merger assets in the current half (107% increase period on period), higher
average cash costs per ounce (H1 2022: A$1,256/oz vs H1 2021: A$1,196/oz) and the increase in depreciation and
1 Cash Earnings defined as Underlying EBITDA less net interest and tax paid and sustaining capital.
2 Net Cash is defined as cash and bullion less corporate bank debt (A$300 million).
ASX Announcement

2
amortisation unit costs (increase of A$291/sold oz), due to the required non-cash uplift to fair value of the merger assets,
compared to the historic cash cost of those same assets.
During the period, Northern Star made a net repayment of A$361 million of corporate bank debt. The acquisition of
Newmont’s power business was also completed in the period for total purchase consideration of A$130 million and the Group
made a C$154 million (A$170 million) investment in a Convertible Debenture with Osisko Mining Inc. The sale of the Kundana
Assets also occurred in the current half year, resulting in assets (and liabilities) held for sale at 30 June 2021 being realised for
A$402 million (and contributing a pre-tax gain of A$242 million).
Operating cash flows for the period were A$622 million. Investing cash flows excluding payments or receipts related to
business development activities (including investments and divestments) were 106 per cent higher (H1 2022: A$447 million,
H1 2021: A$217 million). Financing cash flows for the period resulted in a net outflow of A$551 million (H1 2021: outflow of
A$560 million).
The interim fully franked dividend record date is 8 March 2022, with the payment date 29 March 2022.


===================================================================================================

DYOR

i have bought extra in the last year

so have some cash at risk again

keep an eye on those costs there will be some inflationary rises but bigger companies trend to accumulate fat and bloat
 
10 February 2022
FINANCIAL RESULTS
HALF YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2021

Even though the're giving some dividends (which I don't really care about), and seem to banking on organic growth, they're developing a pot of gold that will be burning a hole in their pocket during this year. What are they going to do with all that cash and bullion? Must be considering another M&A option to tack on some additional ounces without getting too unwieldy. A mid cap producer with a good resource and slow AISC with quality exploration ground...

Screen Shot 2022-02-10 at 12.05.51 pm.png
 
Even though the're giving some dividends (which I don't really care about), and seem to banking on organic growth, they're developing a pot of gold that will be burning a hole in their pocket during this year. What are they going to do with all that cash and bullion? Must be considering another M&A option to tack on some additional ounces without getting too unwieldy. A mid cap producer with a good resource and slow AISC with quality exploration ground...

yes the divs matter to me ( even if they go to buy more shares/assets )

but NST has been a bit aggressive since i bought in ( February 2013 ) @ 87 cents i would be caught between stock-piling cash and finding a sensible place to invest ( if i was in their shoes .. and i am in a tiny way )

personally i would like to see them line up all the ducks from the recent acquisitions and divestments

i was hoping to buy more cheaper ( say around $8.60 ) but that is not looking so likely this week

BTW i expect costs in general to rise , so i would expect to see SOME cost reductions , am still waiting to see if they over-paid for the North American assets .
 
WHOOPS !!

got that order @ $8.65 last month :oops: am looking for more closer to $8 ( and $8.60 is very likely this week after i cared to look at the SHARE PRICE )

maybe i should just go back to bed
 
Just a comment on the monthly NST chart - I think it's behaving well for holders and signs look good to me if you are taking a longer term approach.

  • Many long upper wicks were thrown back in the months of 2020, red flag in hindsight.
  • Lower bollinger 'tested' in subsequent downtrend. Took 8 years for lower band to be tested.
  • The downtrend was first broken in Nov 2021
  • The real break came in Feb 2022
  • Feb 2022 candle is a very strong reversal candle paired with Jan. High volume too.
  • RSI breakout from downtrend, crossing neutral. Lots of headroom.
  • MACD ready to cross its signal line. Also lots of runway.
  • Has escaped a big head and shoulders pattern, bullish to me.

Held
Hold

Decade Monthly
big - 2022-04-17T162907.735.gif
 
Just a comment on the monthly NST chart - I think it's behaving well for holders and signs look good to me if you are taking a longer term approach.
NST peaked at just over $17/share in Nov 2020 with gold @ $2070/ounce USD. Now that gold is trading at @ $1974 with NST trading at $11.44, one would be inclined to conclude there is a lot more upside potential for NST as the gold price firms and if it pushes through $2k again. Seems to be more hesitation to bid up the gold miners than in the past with a rising gold price. No doubt rising interest rates play a part in this.

Hold NST.
 
Volume has gone up, almost 4 million has changed hands at time of writing, and stock up........big bucks messing around this morning? They pushed it up and down
 
They're spending too much on development capital to interest me at the moment. And it will be similar in fy23. They've withdrawn guidance as to capital expenditure in fy24. In fact they have a capital hungry 5 year growth plan going out to and including fy26. Throw in high ASIC, inflationary environment, Covid, and exploration $120-125Mn annually, Fed profit tax, State royalty. WTF? What are we pulling it out of the ground for - to plough most of it back in? They're still hedging. I am unenamoured of fy26, I want a slice of the fat AUD gold price pie now.

Held
 
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