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NST - Northern Star Resources

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Yes, I had a look at all the announcements they released today and gave up - it's for an accountant to decipher imo. I left the annual report till last where finally I came upon the eps figure I was looking for and that doesn't make much sense either because I don't know how much of it is cash or write up/down of assets or what effect the costs of SAR merger are, or GAAP or Aust Accounting standards effects - ffs - then there's less than a full year contribution from SAR assets. If you take the eps figure of $1.15 seriously we're trading on a p/e of 8.5 which is ridiculous. At least cash/bullion went up modestly and that does not include the $400m from EVN.

I won't be selling any unless it melts up b4 the crash and take my lumps if everything crashes first - NST should be one of the fast recoverers I suspect.

I'll leave it to my paid analyst to sort out when he gets to commenting on the full year results. Here's his take on the June Qtr results and outlook.

 
NST broke $9 today and is on the edge of the neckline of a 2.5 year messy H&S by my interpretation. Hard to believe that this premium global scale gold miner is down at the nadir level of the March Wuhan crash. I'd probably be taking a punt on the neckline holding and a low being near if I weren't conserving cash. Momentum indicators are showing some divergence and the last 4 months is almost a falling wedge. Volume isn't alarming.

Held


3 Yr Daily
 
Yeah, glad I got out when I did,
Like you I am conserving cash to buy co's like NST SSR and EVN, but hopefully at much cheaper prices.
The interesting thing as that the POG in AUD has not changed a lot in the past few months, but all the goldies I follow have been in a consistent downward trend.
Mick
 
Can't edit posts lately from my Galaxy tablet once I have inserted any attachment.
The 'falling wedge' is about 4 months
 

Interesting how that happens. General market crashes just flush everyone's money away. Scaredy cats.

Having said that, really odd how badly NST has been punished though. Agree with support there @finicky
 
V shape reversal for NST on the daily and last week's candle was a hammer on better than average volume. The $9 level has been rapidly retaken, go figure - maybe the cabal ran the obvious level for stops. September Quarterly is due in two weeks (Oct 11)

Daily
 

NST looking a bit like NCM and XGD and prolly a few others. NST just breaking first, intraday. Will be interesting to see the finish and overnight markets.

 
NST breaking up. Even with NCM down I think the XGD will be breaking up as well.

 
NST financials summarised in their annual general yesterday and they're sitting on a lot of liquid. $1.5b in available cash, bullion and debt. With EVN spending $1b for a bit of extra copper and silver yesterday made me think what plans these guys have with all this cash on hand and free cash flow going forward. They've either got to give it back, or buy something big. Could easily scoop up a potential Tier 1 asset in a Tier 1 location, either in Australia or Canada probably. Just not too many out there I suppose. Maybe they go risky into the Andes or SE Asia, Africa for diversity? They must be sitting around the big table with a list of assets they'd like to own right now.

Chart wise tracking well, along the lines of most gold instruments. Some decent support tested and respected which was nice to see. Hopefully this emerging upward channel is respected all round.


 
Their all in cost (AIC) is high because they are investing a lot of capital over the next year or so in developing their current assets , according to BtL, so I am not convinced they are looking around for a big acquisition. Could easily be wrong but I have the idea their plate's full for while. I started thinking about selling a 1,000 shares when I saw their most recent AIC across all ops was in the A$1900's
 

Yeah, they're probably still bedding down Saracen merger as well so perhaps more focussed on that and 'shareholder value', whatever that could mean. It could mean distribution or pushing the SP up with smart buys.

You're right on the AISC, around 1.6K is high on the surface of it. Would be nice if that made it closer to $1.2K. Can't see that happening any time soon.
 
The fourth quarter results out today show your concerns were justified.
AIC of $2069 per ounce. And the report says the AIC will go higher.
They have some big spending on capital until 2023 when their costs are supposed to go down.
They really need a big jump in gold to attract me.
But lots of goldies will head up with a big jump in gold price, I might wait for a while to get back into this one.
Mick
 

AISC is supposed to come down a little, not sure what the AIC rise is apart from capex for exploration/development/maintenance?

They've got a lot of cash and bullion in the bank. Must be burning a hole in their pockets.

I'm not sure where the extra 400Koz are coming from exactly to get to 2Moz pa by FY26? They note the projects they're going to expand but I haven't seen the exact numbers anywhere.

 
My whole world is falling apart (investment wise)
Kingsgate mauled, CHN only steady after a vicious drubbing on the previous trading day; now NST has gapped down and yet again broken the $9 neckline of my imagined irregular head and shoulders top. Maybe NST is only worth $1 - which is the mindless mechanical target of the 'measured move' below the $9 neckline. I see measured moves as a useful perspective sometimes but at other times they calculate as ridiculous targets and of course the identified pattern has to be meaningful to begin with. In conclusion, the emphatic break of $9 today is not a good look.

Daily
 
Over the years Id rather be out early and wrong than be out late and right.
Once I'm out the market cant hurt me. When I'm out I have control. When I'm out
the stress of watching the very ODD one move above my sale price way outweighs the
stress of hoping the fall stops and I regain my loss.

I can always buy high and sell higher.

By far the best Exit I have found and one that would help me in even my longer-term trading
is an exit on the first sign of weakness. Which can be very different for all of us.
 

It's a conundrum. You've been bearish for a year, at least, foresaw this correction, and are cashed up I think, so this represents a solid gold opportunity I reckon. I've kept my handful of stocks as I still have some conviction in my original investment thesis for all of them, but have a pot of gold to deploy once the dust settles, as I think you do too.
 
Yes that's pretty right @Sean K, I should have used an emoticon to signal being dramatic; tone often doesn't carry when using text. My position is ok but far from ideal for when the dam breaks. Just did my sums and at about 14% cash proportion to total liquid assets comprising cash, shares and precious metals account. My cash goal for end of the world was 30%.
 

It’s been a tough 12 mths for gold bugs, but we will have our day.
 
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