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Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

mmmmining said:
Kennas, give me this one, would you, it is $4.99 man!
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No way. $5 is five bucks! If you had have said $5 ish, then OK. ;) Days not over though.

MTN might be getting the benefit of the knowledge now that QLD and WA are unlikely to change their policies this year, or even while Carphead and Beatboy are in power.
 
Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

I get $65 a share

Reasons:

ERA/PDN "producers" value ~5000-6000m. MTN will be unhedged so will gain the full benefit in 4 years when mine starts. MTN expected production ~3mil pounds(Estimated), Profit ~$300m, p/e 17 = 5100m so this market cap is consistent.

MTN will only need to raise capital @ $15-20 later on, so its issued capital may reach 70million shares only. Mngmt are good in this respect.

Share price: 5100/70 = $72 a share. Less $10 a share, but add $5 due to exploration upside as it is in good areas. Total = $65 a share

Time frame - just before production it will reach this. Exploration upside - blue sky. MTN mine life is a strong point enables this valuation to be supported.

Refer Canadian peers selling for $20-30/lb
 
Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

Halba said:
I get $65 a share

Reasons:

ERA/PDN "producers" value ~5000-6000m.
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Halba, I think your analysis breaks down a little comparing MTN to ERA/PDN market caps. Very different companys I think. What's ERA's total resource? How many other projects do PDN have on the board compared to MTN. Perhaps there's another company in a similar sitaution that it would be better compared to? Not sure which??

I'm also not sure if we can count on shares on issue staying around 70m. That's only 15m more than now after oppies are converted. Funding the mine development will be very expensive won't it?? Perhaps a JV partner will assist, but that will dilute it further anyway. Do you have any examples, history, or how much a company is diluted from JORC to production. Perhaps PDN is a recent example.

Otherwise, what you say sounds reasonable, but with the above factored in, I think $65 is ambitious.
 
Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

he he, check out the sell depth

4.950 110 1
4.990 59 1
5.000 10000 1
5.190 4433 1
5.200 2570 1
5.490 30000 1
5.500 837 1
5.800 811 1
6.000 1 1
.
.
.
64.99 XXXXX Rafa
65.00 XXXXX Halba

ah, gotta love the market at times like this!
 
Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

kennas said:
Halba, I think your analysis breaks down a little comparing MTN to ERA/PDN market caps. Very different companys I think. What's ERA's total resource? How many other projects do PDN have on the board compared to MTN. Perhaps there's another company in a similar sitaution that it would be better compared to? Not sure which??

I'm also not sure if we can count on shares on issue staying around 70m. That's only 15m more than now after oppies are converted. Funding the mine development will be very expensive won't it?? Perhaps a JV partner will assist, but that will dilute it further anyway. Do you have any examples, history, or how much a company is diluted from JORC to production. Perhaps PDN is a recent example.

Otherwise, what you say sounds reasonable, but with the above factored in, I think $65 is ambitious.
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Yep its very optimistic I admit. :) . But this analysis is based on current uranium prices only so it is achievable. Key thing is the mngmt not diluting company too much. CAPEX has been quoted at around US $200M. Operating costs will be low because grade is world class.
 
Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

kennas said:
No way. $5 is five bucks! If you had have said $5 ish, then OK. ;) Days not over though.

MTN might be getting the benefit of the knowledge now that QLD and WA are unlikely to change their policies this year, or even while Carphead and Beatboy are in power.
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I have got it, $5.00. Is it a good birthday present for you?
 
Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

kennas said:
I'm also not sure if we can count on shares on issue staying around 70m. That's only 15m more than now after oppies are converted. Funding the mine development will be very expensive won't it?? Perhaps a JV partner will assist, but that will dilute it further anyway. Do you have any examples, history, or how much a company is diluted from JORC to production. Perhaps PDN is a recent example.
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PDN has gone from having 300m shares on issue in 2003 to 500m in 2007. If that can be expected with MTN up to production (4 years is reasonable I think) then you need to add 66% ish to the shares on issue. So that brings it to around 90m ish shares on issue by 2011, perhaps. (If PDN is a good example)
 
Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

Doesn't work that way kennas. It's all about the price of the shares and need to raise. PDN raised when uranium wasn't hyped. Now you can raise 20% higher than the market price, less dilution. MTN has $8m cash in bank, no raisings in the short term IMHO
 
Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

Halba said:
Doesn't work that way kennas. It's all about the price of the shares and need to raise. PDN raised when uranium wasn't hyped. Now you can raise 20% higher than the market price, less dilution. MTN has $8m cash in bank, no raisings in the short term IMHO
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So, what's the difference in the need to raise as a guestimate? I thought you would have had an idea of the costs to be able to come up with your valuation. What's your guestimate on the costs to develop the mine and get the workforce etc? This must then be applied to the shares on issue in some way? Yes, agree current sp is a factor, but you have been able to make a call of 70m on issue?? I can't find in PDNs BFS how much it was supposed to cost to get to production. I can only find $20m for first stage, and approval for a $71 debt facility....Perhaps SMMs PFS might be a good indication. Do you have that figure? I think this is important in being able to get a more realistic valuation at production. Or, maybe there's just too many 'ifs'??
 
Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

Kennas - LH construction cost PDN us$92million.
Alot of upside with MTN i believe (thats why i bought), if you simply look at it from a peer comparison.
 
Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

Hi kennas

Straight from MTN company - in one of their presentations they've cited CAPEX as being 150-200million I think. It was in their AGM preso. Also MTN can use debt don't forget. Why does it have to be 100% share raisings?

http://www.marathonresources.com.au/pdf/061116_ChairmansAddress.pdf page 17, says 100-200m AUD costs.

Currently @ 4.88, mkt cap 292mil. 80mil pounds, = $3.66AUD/lb

Canadian peers sell for $10-20 USD/lb
 
Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

let me just say, thx butterfingers for giving us mtn shareholders floor prices to assist the ever increasing SP..first floor price was 68c, now 3.52, whats next, 6.00??, if so..then they baby will rocket to $7+

p.s. if only you guys were french..maybe then we'll see a half decent offer :D
 
Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

Doubt we'll get to $10...too many takeovers ;)

Comment: This is a superb run. Enjoyable for those who hold, frustrating for those on the sidelines(my uni mates missed out!)
 
Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

Halba said:
Doubt we'll get to $10...too many takeovers ;)
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I agree. With the likelihood of QLD and WA premiers remaining recalcitrant, coal industry slaves, attention could focus even more to SA/NT for U. The smaller developers need either lots of money to get up and running, JVs or takeovers. With the global imbalance in supply and demand pressing the big players for more resources, the later is the most likely IMO.
 
Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

I doubt MTN will last on the ASX for another month..once ALP policy changes it is allowed to get taken over isn't it..?
 
Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

Halba said:
I doubt MTN will last on the ASX for another month..once ALP policy changes it is allowed to get taken over isn't it..?
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It can be taken over any time I think after clearance from the regulator. Not sure about details of foreign ownership of Australian U mines. Mega took Redport....
 
Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

Looks too cheap. SMM takeover is over 1300m+ valuation of SMM, and it has 65million pounds 50% owned, approx $37 a pound valuation

MTN if it was valued even at half of SMM's valuation would be worth $1.4billion, or around $15 a share right now.
 
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