Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

NMS - Neptune Marine Services

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I keep an eye on NMS and it seems they are doing all the right things with regards to winning contracts etc. Does anyone know what their EPS will/should be this year? Will it be enough for no more cap raisings in the future?
 
prawn - as per AGM, lange suggested earnings to be significantly lower
H1 2010 - and announcements since suggest they are well on the way to at least match H2.

also if you were to visit the dark side at 'the other forum' i posted a chat i had with lange on several matters. he suggested gorgon work suiting neptunes broad range of services would really begin to come forward in 2011.

so todays news should be seen as a bonus, and acknowledged they are in view of the contract providers.
 
The only thing that worries me with NMS is the dilution of shareholders equity. The management will need to get it right from here.The acquisitions will need to provide a very positive cashfow for shareholders.
On acquisitions I think NMS backed away from the Core deal, as STS provided a better platform for growth.
 
My opinion on this one is that the work hasn't gone away or gone to other suppliers.........it's simply been delayed. Neptune will should still get great contracts - they just won't happen this quarter. I'm shocked about the share price dive over the last few weeks and can't see any real long-term reason for this. I think people bailed out for the short-term, (due to the delay in profits) and are just waiting for the second half of the year. I think the shares will naturally edge back up to the 90c range and the second half predictions / earnings will then add to that rapidly, (and put NMS on the mainstream radar to start a significant run). Also, Wheatstone and Gorgon are on the continental 'slope' and there's alot more product just a bit deeper down that slope - The MUA are trying their hardest to push foreign investment out of Australia and replicate what they did to the UK (Liverpool docks and car industry) - but if oil gets up to the $120 range then local people like Woodside might start going for it......putting Neptune in a great position. (All my opinion only).
 
prawn_86 said:
I keep an eye on NMS and it seems they are doing all the right things with regards to winning contracts etc. Does anyone know what their EPS will/should be this year? Will it be enough for no more cap raisings in the future?
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According to Thomson First Call Global Estimates EPS for the current year is 6.9c. 6.2c for 2010 7.8c for 2011.
 
I'd be surprised if it came in above 6. Just from the tone of the AGM...I also think that if those forecasts are right - NMS is a screaming buy from a value perspective, let alone the growth perspective we all know about!
 
you would have to assume that rise is attributed to Aust, Brazil & West Africa, maybe Asia. the traditional leaders middle east, north sea, gulf of mexico are starting to see large declines and GFC aftermath reinforces that.
 
Oh dear.....another round of falls....13.6% so far.
Seems Neppy are suffering a "sharper than anticipated decline" across the US and Asia.
Makes one wonder who's not doing their homework.
Did someone say something about wheels falling off????:rolleyes:
 
What happened to NMS.AX (Neptune Marine Services Limited) over the last few days?? Heard good reports last week where they announced that they had secured a contract on the Gorgon LNG project. They also took up some other LNG contract in Qatar and Australia. They also announced that activity in offshore markets was increasing and secure $50 million of new work. I thought this was a good one to put money on which I did earlier in the week. What cause the violent price drop over the last few days (approximately 16% drop!)? Surely issues in US wouldn't have caused this drop!
 
EPS estimates blown out of the water by todays announcements unfortunately. The AGM indicated lower, some 'analysts' said 6c EPS, what will they say now? 1c? negative?

US dollar revenues and AUD costs probably hurts them the most...
 
Sure yesterday was bad but, keep your eyes on the dwindling prize today.
Going to take more than a few good contracts to lift Neppy out of the mud.
 
Plasmapark said:
Sure yesterday was bad but, keep your eyes on the dwindling prize today.
Going to take more than a few good contracts to lift Neppy out of the mud.
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Any holders out there need to quickly do some analysis on their balance sheet and debt terms to make sure they won't breach (or come close to) anything.

As a not very good example - Nomad (NOD) issued a profit downgrade last week and the share price dropped over 50% because it said something like "the revised forecast will not breach banking convenants but we are talking to our bankers anyway".

Need to do some stress test...
 
All depends on bank relationship really - covenants can be modified easily - the banks will enjoy the extra margin on the debt too!!

I haven't done those numbers on Neppy but as they said, they are expecting a strong turnaround and I would hope with a company in their stage the covenants are not too restrictive...i'll look into it though, thanks for pointing it out.
 
this stock will drop to the 30's. The second half will be better than the first, but the question will be by how much. Unfortunately for NMS, they did an overseas expansion when the market was red hot for oil and gas services, and most probably paid to much for the aquisitions, and the $A has risen in the mean time, meaning earning will be lower than first thought. It has legacy issues as well with some acquisition earnout still to be paid, although these will be a lot less now. Positives for the compay is it execuited a well planned capital raising, at the right time, that will keep the banks at bay now. It has a good mix of businesses and geographical spread.

Longer term this could end up to be a good stock, but the next 6 months are vital to the company, and any more slip ups and things could get nasty.
 
After the drops in the DOW and European markets last night, Neppy may have trouble staying out of the 20's, let alone the 30's.
Shades of last year coming back to haunt.....:banghead:
 
Crickey....I dropped a pin but couldn't hear it hit the floor for all the slurping sounds in here.
Figured it was all the wound licking that's going on....:rolleyes:
 
Hi Plasma and Neppy Co.

I've just been running the ruler over NMS and it seems like a bit of an interesting case. They are claiming on a Macro scale things are improving for the remainder of 2010; Shell has improved their outlook for the Asia-Pacific region and Christian Lange (director) purchased 100,000 shares around 45 cents.

But what's happened to NMS? Where is the growth coming from? Any new contracts? What is the EPS?

This one was touted pretty highly and holders seemed pretty sure it would be somewhat of a t/o target or junior WOR scale...did the wheels really fall off Plasma?
 
Mate.....the wheels may not have fallen off entirely however, it has two flat tyres on the drive wheels and, it certainly ain't no late model BMW with run flat tyres.
More like a '79 blue motor Commodore, running the way you'd expect an old banger like that to run....blowing lots of smoke, struggling on every little hill, then running hard on the downslope, as long as it has a tail wind....:rolleyes:
 
Crickey.....not only two flat tyres, now it seems the final two are suffering slow leaks plus, the wind has died so no help on the downslopes either.
Might be time to park it and hitch a lift....:banghead:
 
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