Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

NMS - Neptune Marine Services

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Plasmapark said:
What the.......?????
Gonna hurt NEXT WEEK?????
Are you saying it's not hurting now?????
I bet there's a heap of shareholders (myself included) that would tend to disagree.
Still, in the grand scheme of things, I'm glad I didn't buy in when the SP was at $1.37 and, also glad I didn't partake in the earlier capital raising at 95c.
Yeah I'm down but, nowhere near the likes of some folks.
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Haha. Yeah, maybe I didn't phrase that properly. It's gonna next week 'as well'. And possibly for a while.

I'm in the same boat as you don't worry. I bought LNC at $4.36 and if it weren't for the trading halt today they'd probably be at $2.70.

There was a great quote published on news.com.au from Warren Buffet this morning...

"A bear market is a great way to transfer wealth from the impatient to the patient."

Just gotta hang in there.
 
joestjack said:
Haha. Yeah, maybe I didn't phrase that properly. It's gonna next week 'as well'. And possibly for a while.

I'm in the same boat as you don't worry. I bought LNC at $4.36 and if it weren't for the trading halt today they'd probably be at $2.70.

There was a great quote published on news.com.au from Warren Buffet this morning...

"A bear market is a great way to transfer wealth from the impatient to the patient."

Just gotta hang in there.
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Yeah, Ole Warren's a wise sage.....and wealthy....did I mention wealthy??
I have no intention of turning a paper loss into a real one, I'm just spewing I don't have the readies to buy some stocks.
Not just NMS either....there's lots of bargains to be had.
 
Plasmapark said:
Yeah, Ole Warren's a wise sage.....and wealthy....did I mention wealthy??
I have no intention of turning a paper loss into a real one, I'm just spewing I don't have the readies to buy some stocks.
Not just NMS either....there's lots of bargains to be had.
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Well I said it would hurt this week but I'm very happy to admit I'm wrong today. NMS up 12%.

Still early days though...
 
I assume alot of NMS contracts are in US dollars, either way with the Aussie dollar down NMS has been given a major financial wndfall. They are either up 30 percent on income or have advantage in tender process. Either way NMS is a winner when the dollar is down.
Anyone know... Mr Lange may have a bonus ro shareholders.
 
blue - lange has got 2 conferences to attend this week, in honkers, then back to perth.

the only known bonus is to his options holding, if its voted yes at the AGM next month.

but yeah we'd love some news.
 
dvs - todays quarterly is the one ive been waiting for - and it has not let me down. wonderful numbers, generating great cash ($1.5m received, $13.5 to come) and great working capital spend of $17m, and thats great because they wouldnt do that unless they are about to launch into even more projects. if you take your eyes off the SP, and just read the reports and ann's they put out, its all positive. i have not eased up on them one bit. all steam ahead.
 
Fantastic result for the quarter, will get better next quarter when all vessels start to earn income.
No movement in SP such is the state of the market overall.
 
bluekat said:
Fantastic result for the quarter, will get better next quarter when all vessels start to earn income.
No movement in SP such is the state of the market overall.
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Appears to be a great result but how much of that is attributable to 4th quarter 08. GOM & Gulf of Thailand work.

Schlumberger down 2.1% WOR up 10.4% NMS up 6.7%
Looking at 20% range of the closing price 59 bidders 681024 23 sellers 306530
See what tomorrow brings. A long way to go before I break even.
Does anybody reckon they will reach $1.50 by Dec 2010. Exercise price on options.
 
hi,

i think NMS will definitly reach 1.50 well before dec 2010. only thing that will stop that is resources recession if demand in china and india slips as that can have an adverse affect on australian economy esp engineering businesses. can anybody comment on the likelihood of that happening.

regards,
kb
 
KB,

What makes you so certain NMS will reach that price? Some more analysis is needed please as that is many multiples of what it is currently trading.

Prawn
 
KB - theres building evidence that it would take major upheaval and an across the board cancellation of projects for offshore engineering to suffer in the coming years. many of the projects that are using these firms have been in the pipeline for many years, before the recent oil price spike, before any credit crisis etc, and the relevant funding remains available due to the enormous profits recently announced my those same developers.
keep up to date on www.energydigger.com

and just to help with your argument of $1.50 by the end of 2010, consider this. as the market slowly comes to its senses and realises theres value out there, those poorly backed and 'full of promises' companies that litter the ASX will be forever abandoned, and those with growing cashflows and proven profitability will be supported more and more. NMS recent quarterly supports their growing cashflows and profitability.
 
maungatapu said:
Appears to be a great result but how much of that is attributable to 4th quarter 08. GOM & Gulf of Thailand work.

Schlumberger down 2.1% WOR up 10.4% NMS up 6.7%
Looking at 20% range of the closing price 59 bidders 681024 23 sellers 306530
See what tomorrow brings. A long way to go before I break even.
Does anybody reckon they will reach $1.50 by Dec 2010. Exercise price on options.
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Where does the $1.50 come from?? Is that Lange's NMSO conversion price or something?? As the conversion is 20c on normal NMSO and yes december 2010 is the magic date. I didn't think gas and oil were looking at potential weaknesses KB90210, if you read "articles of interest" in hc on nms, by the legend Sob, you will read that this current situation has affected little as most projects are not short term, but projecting many years in the future to meet oil and gas demand. Now with inflation coming down .2% last month, interest rates going down and perhaps the powers that be OS have shifted enough power and assets, till the next time? So I feel it should go back up soon, significantly, but for how long?????? There is beginning to be talk by some that the crisis although serious, has been overstated to create the necessary fear to achieve other goals. People like Giorgio Questa ( on BBC radio) of http://www.cass.city.ac.uk/faculty/g.questa/index.html use terms like machiavellian to describe the manipulators. The pressure put on congressmen Brad Sherman and other congressmen illustrates this. You can listen and see lots on utube regarding this. I think we should see a resurgence soon/now and also believe we have hit the bottom. Apparently there is around 200billion on the sidelines here, ready to go, plus the super going in all the time. Only thing is?? who's going to pay out the US debt and will that bring the US down and us again???

That recent nms qtr report looks great, achieving 27% of the years forecast revenue already, now the new ship and rovs will contribute too. And they were being put straight to work.
 
SophieSweet said:
I didn't think gas and oil were looking at potential weaknesses KB90210, if you read "articles of interest" in hc on nms, , you will read that this current situation has affected little as most projects are not short term, but projecting many years in the future to meet oil and gas demand.
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actually, its the thread 'supposed oil and gas slowdown'. articles here highlight the plight of the O&G industry in not being able to meet demand during the last 10 years, due to some complacency in the 90's when energy was so cheap, and the sector failed to prepare for future surges. they now simply build these projects in anticipation of future demand increases, and the benefits that will flow.

i did make a rather bold statement some time ago that NMS were recession proof, and although the SP has been battered, things have never look better for this company, as evidenced by the lastest quarterly. the upcoming brr audio will back this up.
 
son of baglimit said:
i did make a rather bold statement some time ago that NMS were recession proof, and although the SP has been battered, things have never look better for this company, as evidenced by the lastest quarterly. the upcoming brr audio will back this up.
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Can you back up, that the brr will back it up, more analysis is needed i think Sob to back that up. Stating a back up without any back up is insufficient evidence to back up your claims that there is a back up on the horizon via the impending BRR.:D
 
I may have missed something but I didn't see anything in the quarterly about earnings. The increase in revenue is great.

I was dissappointed with the annual result; revenue was as forecast but earnings were down.

Revenue is only one element. This company needs decent profits too.
 
r m said:
I may have missed something but I didn't see anything in the quarterly about earnings. The increase in revenue is great.

I was dissappointed with the annual result; revenue was as forecast but earnings were down.

Revenue is only one element. This company needs decent profits too.
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without reference to other info, true the annual result was a bit disappointing.
BUT
considering the GOM work was delayed by the client (all high margin nepsys work), the results were actually in line. since then the sept qtr achieved wonderful numbers, without the additional 2nd rov & the big boat. it is possible to assume theyll reach revenue targets by the end of the 3rd qtr. profits will simply depend on the amount of nepsys and tri-surv work, the two big profit makers. and with the after effects on ike in the gom, and survey work expected in many sites around australia, things are as positive as could be.
for further info and guidance, read the following .......

http://seekingalpha.com/article/103...earnings-call-transcript?source=yahoo&page=-1

transcript of cal dives sep qtr earnings conference call.
 
I agree that things are positive for NMS. Everything I hear reassures me that the faith, and the cash I have committed to NMS shares, is well placed.

The concerns I have for the future of this company are, in no particular order: (1) takeover by another company (how much cash has Worley Parsons got?, what if BHP can't buy Rio and then decides to go on a spending spree?), (2) fatal accident (NMS works in a dangerous environment, a fatal accident could ruin the reputation of the company), (3) the management fails to deliver decent profits in line with expectations over several yars.

I am as bullish as anyone on NMS shares. I spent the weekend looking at whether setting up an SMSF and using it to buy some NMS shares would be worthwhile. Ultimately, for my circumstances it would not have been cost effective but it shows how keen I am on the company and buying shares at their current price.
 
r m said:
The concerns I have for the future of this company are, in no particular order: (1) takeover by another company (how much cash has Worley Parsons got?, what if BHP can't buy Rio and then decides to go on a spending spree?), (2) fatal accident (NMS works in a dangerous environment, a fatal accident could ruin the reputation of the company), (3) the management fails to deliver decent profits in line with expectations over several yars.
QUOTE]

1. they are certainly ripe for the picking. for mine, im not worried about WOR (recently established their own offshore division and i assume plan to grow it quickly) or BHP (theyre the client, not the competitor). im more concerned with a US major wanting in on a company now beginning to assume worldwide reach, with strong links in the australasian region. as stated many times, there are strong barriers to entry into the aust market, and a buyout of an existing company is certainly quickest & easiest for them.
2. im not gonna lose sleep over any unforeseen accident. NMS appear to be quite open and proactive on their wish to provide top class OH&S, and recent job adds on seek back that up, with multiple adds placed (just search for neptune in seek)
3. this is the one we just have to sit back and trust. yes on paper they undershot the 08 forecasts, due to delayed work, but so far are very much on the money.
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A couple of good announcements released this last week or so.

Perth, Western Australia: Leading engineering services company, Neptune Marine Services Limited (ASX: NMS) has been recognised at the 2008 WA Industry and Export Awards, winning the Innovation Excellence category for its NEPSYS ® dry underwater welding technology. Neptune was one of three finalists vying for the Innovation Excellence Award that was presented at a gala evening hosted by the WA Department of Industry and Resources and attended by the Premier of Western Australia, Colin Barnett MLA.

Also just released today:
Perth, Western Australia: Leading engineering services company, Neptune Marine Services Limited (ASX:NMS) announces that its wholly owned subsidiary, US UnderwaterServices LP, has been awarded two NEPSYS ® repair projects in the Gulf of Mexico worth US$10 million (AUD$14.65m).

Also just noticed that the book value of NMS seems to trading at a significant discount atm. Not quite sure if this is a true reflection of a 'good buy' but will look into it some more. If anyone can share some light on this i'd appreciate it.
 
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