NMR - Nimrodel Resources

[beatle]

Re: NMR - Nomrodel Resources

NMR - Nimrodel Resources (not Nomrodel!).

A great trading day for NMR yesterday, volume huge at 32 million, up 10% on price, sitting at 5.3 cents at the close which is a short term resistance level (according to other TA commentators). NMR holds a 4+ BILLION tonne coal resource in Botswana, and are currently undertaking broadspaced drilling at locations immediately adjacent to that delineated resource. Its likely that drilling could outline another mega tonnage potential target resource, thus the anticipation building with the share price.

This sort of stock is exactly what I seek for a longer term hold, notwithstanding the fact that short term traders can make money out of it too. I like stocks that have long term potential to grow appreciably based on a significant resource base. The other plus is that Botswana is considered one of the safest African nations for mineral investment from a svoereign risk and security point of view.

 

[beatle]

Re: NMR - Nomrodel Resources

NMR - Nimrodel Resources.

NMR has been the subject of considerable TA debate on HC website, and the whilst there is some conjecture, as expected with those not holding shares arguing that the share is due to fall back to a price to fill in a gap, and those holding shares arguing that the price is due to rise before any fall back or consolidation. But regardless, both those not holding shares and those holding shares appear to have a common view that whilst the immediate movement in price might be argued, that the overall trend is UP!!! And that it could move up to test 6.0 cents and beyond fairly soon.

As for how it moves on Monday, I would suggest that since the overseas trading on Thursday night didn't have any negative impact on NMR trading here on Friday, and a huge volume traded on the Friday, its likely that the overseas markets on Friday night has probably got little influence on how NMR will trade on Monday. And since Friday trading was up on high volume, its likely that there will be high trading activity on Monday. The closing auction on Friday pushed it down to the 5.3 cents level after getting to 5.5 cent just before that close, and since most traders probably don't like to hold over the weekend in case the overseas markets react badly, I would say there will be a bundle of traders who got out at the close wanting to get exposure soon after the open on Monday. Thats just my reading of it.

On a fundamental analysis point of view, I would suggest interest parties read a research report put out by Carmichaels brokers, who support a considerably higher NMR share price. The link is:
http://www.nimrodel.com.au/media/files/DCJ_Research_Note.pdf

Its important to note that NMR has got the biggest delineated resource in Botswana of its peer group and trades at least a third and more like 1/4 - 1/5 that of most of that group. Thus NMR has the potential to move towards 15 - 20 cents and beyond just to be comparative with its peer group. This doesn't consider the possibility that NMR might end up having even more resources based on further drilling of the adjacent tenements more recently acquired, notwithstanding that the current broadscale drilling of those tenements is too broad to allow an inferred resource one would imagine, but not too broad to delineate a "potential target resource". Thus the upside for NMR looks good on its current resource and not considering a likelihood of an even bigger resource in due course, ie even MORE THAN 4.2 billion tonnes!

A couple of additional points to consider:
1. NMR has got a relatively new board and management group, one that has got tonnes of experience and clearly a great following in the investor market to boot! That is so important at this early stage of NMR's development.

2. NMR has traded at these high volumes over the Xmas/New Year period which has been a very slow go for almost all shares, and management has not been heavily pushing its shares over this period.

3. Board and management hold 48% of the stock, thus quite a tight hold. This will ensure that the total stock is not loosely traded.

4. NMR does have to carry out a capital raising within the next few months to continue its drilling (the next infill drilling stage at which time further resources will likely be announced for the adjacent tenements now being broadly drilled), and therefore management will be incentivised to market its potential to ensure that capital raising is done with minimal dilution, thus its likely they will be trying to push the share price as high as possible in the coming months before the capital raising.

I believe that NMR could get to the 15 - 20 cents easily in the next couple of months! And with more work, including another resource upgrade plus results of its scoping study, move upwards towards 25 cents.

Any other views on NMR of course are welcomed....

 

[mr. jeff]

Re: NMR - Nomrodel Resources

Beatle, thanks for the report link, very detailed and reasonably interesting !

NMR has seen some great strength in the past 2 weeks as you say and it quite exciting at the moment. I of course got swept up in the sudden announcement and have been happy to see the price action of late. Today it is in the black and moving up again and hopefully will continue. In the short term there is the upcoming drill announcement which will keep things moving, there may of course be a downside risk if a lot of traders are buying in anticipation, I can't easily forget the selling that occurred the days following the last announcement.

Overall though it seems that there may not be much risk at these levels (pure speculation of course and with a serious downturn it could easily reverse - they are a tiddler and have little cash and are exploring, so always subject to market conditions) with comparisons showing that NMR offers a decent opportunity once it breaks through that lovely 6c level.

 

[beatle]

Re: NMR - Nomrodel Resources

NMR - Nimrodel Resources.

Hi Mr Jeff, great to see you on this thread! And yes you are quite right, that NMR remains a speculative stock, as most of my picks these days are similar - having good resource bases and an opportunity to get in early even if the price has moved to some degree - it potentially could go a lot higher based on comparative analysis to other Botswana(or more broadly African) coal resources. I'm of the view that NMR's resource base WILL in due course grow even more than its 4.2 billion tonnes, that should underpin a share price of considerably higher IMO).

And wow, another great trading day, part of its transition to move towards a comparative peer pricing level. Still a long way to go. And whilst you might know that I don't trade on a daily basis, just patiently pick up stock when I think it makes sense, its great to see such a huge volume once again, of 36 million shares traded, after last Fridays 32 million shares, with another rise, up 0.6 cents, ie +11% up to 5.9 cents - its sitting at the door of your "lovely 6 cents level" now!

Of course my investment style is against most TA traders advice but has been very successful for me over the years, and whilst its great to see each days trading (and I tend to remain glued to my computer during trading watching it blow by blow, for my own enjoyment and to the frustration of my missus, lol!) I believe that NMR will be trading at a much higher level in the next couple of months provided Europe doesn't go completely bananas (and of course thats likely too!). The closing auction was interesting, I was expecting it to come off a bit more than it did, as day traders exited to remove risk due to potential overseas trading issues developing. I can see the trading tomorrow at commencement be similar to this morning, when it was up on open moved slightly higher before dropping back to test below the opening bids then finally taking out the negative traders. That of course depends upon what happens tonight and how the market gloom is seen overseas. NMR traded up well today when the whole market basically stood still on relatively low volumes for the broader market. And NMR is providing traders an opportunity to make some moves when the rest of the market was asleep, relatively speaking.

 

[beatle]

Re: NMR - Nomrodel Resources

NMR - Nimrodel Resources

A short commentary by FNArena in Dec 2011 on Carmichaels coverage of NMR is featured in the link below:

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=44064D4E-0FF8-F382-DEA32B6F9E52BB9E

As news of NMR's huge Botswana coal resource becomes more widely known surely NMR share price will be re-rated!

 

[beatle]

Re: NMR - Nomrodel Resources

NMR - Nimrodel Resources.

NMR trading activity has dropped appreciably as the traders have moved to fresh new pastures, and the price of NMR has dropped to a reasonably stable price around 5.2 - 5.4 cents. Being an investor rather than trader my view is that now is the time to start accumulating again, in readiness for the next move upwards!

I remain fully invested in NMR as I consider its resource of 4.2 billion tonnes of steaming quality coal will be worth far more than the indicated market cap of currently around $22 million, and it remains at a considerable discount to its peers holding appreciably smaller coal resources in Botswana and surrounding countries of Africa.

 

[beatle]

Re: NMR - Nomrodel Resources

NMR - Nimrodel Resources.

NMR is being traded more actively today with a fair amount of volume, currently just over 11 million shares traded today. I still think its a great time to buy shares and put them in the bottom drawer, for sure its not going to get much lower in share price, and in time as news comes out about the likely increase in resources and information regarding scoping studies etc the outcome should be positive for NMR share price, bearing in mind the considerable discount it has compared to its African coal peers. A market cap around $22 million is bugger all for a company with the coal resources it holds! My feeling is that a market cap around $50 million is a good first target to expect as the news comes out.

 

[beatle]

Woohoo, NMR testing resistance at 5.9 cents. I'm not a TA but think maybe the accompanying volume is a bit light to push it higher - anyone have a more informed view?

 

[mr. jeff]

I have a very uninformed view that it has been great to see the strength return, however fleeting it may be. Today has closed close to the high on medium volume, a good sign. If the US trades down tonight by 0.5% which is all it seems capable of doing at the moment, then we will get an opportunity to see how strong the buyers are vs. the sellers tomorrow, then we will have some good information, but at this stage the action seems to be positive.
That 6c mark is a worry still, and hopefully the market pushes strongly through this in the morning to try and tempt people to stay in and not sell off again, but to be in on a solid run. Certainly there is a case for it in their coal, and the upcoming drilling results, however these times (and all others really) seem to never be as expected.

Good luck and check in tomorrow!

 

[Dougs Antiques]

Woohoo, NMR testing resistance at 5.9 cents. I'm not a TA but think maybe the accompanying volume is a bit light to push it higher - anyone have a more informed view?

Hi all I bought a generous parcel of these at the recent low and now performong well.
Yesterday saw a posative end of day without being sold down after a good couple of days,this is a good sign for the next days open and I would expect it to break up on todays open and test 6.4 to 6.5 cents today....good luck to all holders

 

[beatle]

Great to see you in NMR too Doug, and well called. The last hour's increased volume of 10 million probably was a good sign to TA's and the opening was great, lets hope to see it hold up for the entire day. You are quite right that yesterday was the first real day where it held most of its day's gain! And at the moment the volume is looking quite good.

Just imagine if NMR actually put out some news re the latest round of drilling in the adjoining landholding where I understand the coal is expected to be at least as good in quality and possibly of similar areal extent as its current holdings!

My preliminary target of 15 cents is looking good for the medium term IMO...

 

[Dougs Antiques]

Here is a chart I just done quickly showing todays trade aswell (about midday) as you can see the volume is quite reasnable and its trading inside the upper and lower lines very nicely.
The Willams % oscillator is showing slightly oversold, this for me tells me to watch carefully as a down day is iminant in the near future (for I try to pick the top or there abouts).
All in all I cant see anything drasticly wrong in this chart it all seem posative.
An announcement would send this one skyward IMO.
As for price prediction I would be happy to see 7 cents.
15 cents would be nice as it is valued at 17 cents but these prices wont be seen for a while IMO
DYOR

 

[beatle]

Thanks for the chart and commentary Doug, shame its dropped in the last couple of hours! But then again all things have got to take a breather (my nonTA speak I guess equivalent to your imminent down day expectation!). As you will probably predict I'm not a trader and wil ride NMR to wherever it wants to take me, but I love watching the daily action along the way (for me the joy is in the journey and how you get to the destination, not the destination itself IMO!).

 

[mr. jeff]

This is where I'm at.



Although this could be wrong if that early buying action continues to bump up the price regularly as has been the case. I will remain careful until that level is cleared, then I intend to hit it with a bit of conviction.

Good luck.

 

[beatle]

Mr Jeff, I presume the dumping in the last half of today would be fairly negative for the next couple of days? (Doug did predict a down day looming - shame he was so correct and oh so soon!).

 

[Dougs Antiques]

Wow what a prediction yesterday a hit on all 3 points.
1.break up on open
2 a test of 6.4 cents
3. a down day aswell

Jeff i can understand why you would like to see a confidant break of 6 cents.
But I think a resource upgrade is more than a possability in the near future.
"Phase 2 drilling at Takatokwane South is expected to build on the company’s Maiden Inferred JORC Resource of 4.23 billion tonnes of coal at the Takatokwane Coal Project
27 holes completed; 16 diamond core holes and 11 reverse circulation (RC) drill holes for 4,850m of drilling in total
Proximate results from phase 1 drilling are due in the first quarter 2012"
When this does come I believe that 6 cents will be the bottom so im happy to hold at sub 6 cents.
In my trades I use a combination of fundamentals and charts.
Recently I have tipped a couple of big movers.
PEN (see PEN thread) a tip of 2.6 cents bottom and now at 4.6 cents.
LNC (see LNC thread) a tip of $1.03 bottom now trading at $1.50
and NMR is a bargin at anywhere in the mid 5 cent range IMO
DYOR

 

[beatle]

Very impressive record Doug in all and spot on with NMR yesterday. Did you expect it to drop lower for the next few days or hover around the mid 5's? I'm with you though that at the current price its going to be seen as a bargain as more news comes due and the resources plus scoping study are worked on.
BUT be aware that by the company's own admission the current Phase 2 drilling is far too broader spaced to come up with an additional JORC compliant resource for the new areas being investigated at present. Thus any expectation of more resources added to the inventory from this round of drilling might be over-optimistic - of course they could surprise us anyway!

 

[Dougs Antiques]

I think NMR is establishing support in the mid to high 5 cent range (but in saying this no-one can predict what tomorrow holds)
You are correct about Phase 2 of the drilling but please remember that the phase 1 drilling results of 27 holes hasnt yet been published and it has to be posative to commence Phase 2 and this could be in the next few weeks (I personally hope so to keep the intrest happening in this penny stock)

 

[Dougs Antiques]

I think NMR is establishing support in the mid to high 5 cent range (but in saying this no-one can predict what tomorrow holds)
You are correct about Phase 2 of the drilling but please remember that the phase 1 drilling results of 27 holes hasnt yet been published and it has to be posative to commence Phase 2 and this could be in the next few weeks (I personally hope so to keep the intrest happening in this penny stock)

Results of phase 1 out today:
“The results from Phase 1 drilling at Takatokwane South are
extremely positive and indicate an extension of the coal
horizons at Takatokwane.”
Highlights
Exploration target of 2 BT for Takatokwane South.
Results returned from 13 of 16 diamond core holes drilled
Coal horizons up to 21 metres thick
Seam 2 depth from surface commences at 64 metres.
Calorific Value of the seams range 20 to 25 MJ/kg at 1.60 SG Float
Regards

 

[beatle]

A good spike up in share price on increasing volume for NMR, great to see after it seemed it was steadily fading away.